Monitoring ocular hypertension, how much and how often? A cost-effectiveness perspective

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficiency of alternative monitoring services for people with ocular hypertension (OHT), a glaucoma risk factor.

DESIGN: Discrete event simulation model comparing five alternative care pathways: treatment at OHT diagnosis with minimal monitoring; biennial monitoring (primary and secondary care) with treatment if baseline predicted 5-year glaucoma risk is ≥6%; monitoring and treatment aligned to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) glaucoma guidance (conservative and intensive).

SETTING: UK health services perspective.

PARTICIPANTS: Simulated cohort of 10 000 adults with OHT (mean intraocular pressure (IOP) 24.9 mm Hg (SD 2.4).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Costs, glaucoma detected, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

RESULTS: Treating at diagnosis was the least costly and least effective in avoiding glaucoma and progression. Intensive monitoring following NICE guidance was the most costly and effective. However, considering a wider cost-utility perspective, biennial monitoring was less costly and provided more QALYs than NICE pathways, but was unlikely to be cost-effective compared with treating at diagnosis (£86 717 per additional QALY gained). The findings were robust to risk thresholds for initiating monitoring but were sensitive to treatment threshold, National Health Service costs and treatment adherence.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed OHT, glaucoma monitoring more frequently than every 2 years is unlikely to be efficient. Primary treatment and minimal monitoring (assessing treatment responsiveness (IOP)) could be considered; however, further data to refine glaucoma risk prediction models and value patient preferences for treatment are needed. Consideration to innovative and affordable service redesign focused on treatment responsiveness rather than more glaucoma testing is recommended.

The design and implementation of a study to investigate the effectiveness of community vs hospital eye service follow-up for patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration with quiescent disease

Introduction
Standard treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is intravitreal injections of anti-VEGF drugs. Following multiple injections, nAMD lesions often become quiescent but there is a high risk of reactivation, and regular review by hospital ophthalmologists is the norm. The present trial examines the feasibility of community optometrists making lesion reactivation decisions.

Methods
The Effectiveness of Community vs Hospital Eye Service (ECHoES) trial is a virtual trial; lesion reactivation decisions were made about vignettes that comprised clinical data, colour fundus photographs, and optical coherence tomograms displayed on a web-based platform. Participants were either hospital ophthalmologists or community optometrists. All participants were provided with webinar training on the disease, its management, and assessment of the retinal imaging outputs. In a balanced design, 96 participants each assessed 42 vignettes; a total of 288 vignettes were assessed seven times by each professional group.The primary outcome is a participant's judgement of lesion reactivation compared with a reference standard. Secondary outcomes are the frequency of sight threatening errors; judgements about specific lesion components; participant-rated confidence in their decisions about the primary outcome; cost effectiveness of follow-up by optometrists rather than ophthalmologists.

Discussion
This trial addresses an important question for the NHS, namely whether, with appropriate training, community optometrists can make retreatment decisions for patients with nAMD to the same standard as hospital ophthalmologists. The trial employed a novel approach as participation was entirely through a web-based application; the trial required very few resources compared with those that would have been needed for a conventional randomised controlled clinical trial.

The effectiveness of peer mentoring in promoting a positive transition to higher education for first-year undergraduate students: a mixed methods systematic review protocol

Background: The global transfer of nursing and midwifery education to higher education institutes has led to student nurses and midwives experiencing challenges previously faced by traditional third-level students, including isolation, loneliness, financial difficulties and academic pressure. These challenges can contribute to increased stress and anxiety levels which may be detrimental to the successful transition to higher education, thus leading to an increase in attrition rates. Peer mentoring as an intervention has been suggested to be effective in supporting students in the transition to third-level education through enhancing a sense of belongingness and improving student satisfaction, engagement and retention rates. This proposed systematic review aims to determine the effectiveness of peer mentoring in enhancing levels of student engagement, sense of belonging and overall satisfaction of first-year undergraduate students following transition into higher education.
Methods: MEDLINE, Web of Knowledge, ProQuest, Embase, CINAHL, ERIC, PsycINFO and CENTRAL databases will be searched for qualitative, quantitative and mixed methods studies on the implementation of peer assessment strategies in higher education institutes (HEIs) or universities for full-time, first-year adult students (>17 years). Included studies will be limited to the English language. The quality of included studies will be assessed using a validated Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT). The findings will be presented as a narrative synthesis or meta-analysis as appropriate following sequential explanatory synthesis.
Discussion: The review will provide clear, non-biased evidence-based guidance to all third-level educators on the effectiveness of peer-mentoring programmes for first-year undergraduates. The review is necessary to help establish which type of peer mentoring is most effective. The evidence from qualitative and quantitative studies drawn from the international literature will be utilised to illustrate the best way to implement and evaluate peer mentoring as an effective intervention and will be useful in guiding future research and practice in this area. These findings may be applied internationally across all disciplines.

The effectiveness, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for maltreated children and adolescents: An evidence synthesis

DESIGN We will address our research objectives by searching the published and unpublished literature and conducting an evidence synthesis of i) studies of the effectiveness of psychosocial interventions provided for children and adolescents who have suffered maltreatment, ii) economic evaluations of these interventions and iii) studies of their acceptability to children, adolescents and their carers. SEARCH STRATEGY: Evidence will be identified via electronic databases for health and allied health literature, social sciences and social welfare, education and other evidence based depositories, and economic databases. We will identify material generated by user-led,voluntary sector enquiry by searching the internet and browsing the websites of relevant UK government departments and charities. Additionally, studies will be identified via the bibliographies of retrieved articles/reviews; targeted author searches; forward citation searching. We will also use our extensive professional networks, and our planned consultations with key stakeholders and our study steering committee. Databases will be searched from inception to time of search. REVIEW STRATEGY Inclusion criteria: 1) Infants, children or adolescents who have experienced maltreatment between the ages of 0 17 years. 2) All psychosocial interventions available for maltreated children and adolescents, by any provider and in any setting, aiming to address the sequelae of any form of maltreatment, including fabricated illness. 3) For synthesis of evidence of effectiveness: all controlled studies in which psychosocial interventions are compared with no-treatment, treatment as usual, waitlist or other-treated controls. For a synthesis of evidence of acceptability we will include any design that asks participants for their views or provides data on non-participation. For decision-analytic modelling we may include uncontrolled studies. Primary and secondary outcomes will be confirmed in consultation with stakeholders. Provisional primary outcomes are psychological distress/mental health (particularly PTSD, depression and anxiety, self-harm); ii) behaviour; iii) social functioning; iv) cognitive / academic attainment, v) quality of life, and vi) costs. After studies that meet the inclusion criteria have been identified (independently by two reviewers), data will be extracted and risk of bias (RoB) assessed (independently by two reviewers) using the Cochrane Collaboration RoB Tool (effectiveness), quality hierarchies of data sources for economic analyses (cost-effectiveness) and the CASP tool for qualitative research (acceptability). Where interventions are similar and appropriate data are available (or can be obtained) evidence synthesis will be performed to pool the results. Where possible, we will explore the extent to which age, maltreatment history (including whether intra- or extra-familial), time since maltreatment, care setting (family / out-of-home care including foster care/residential), care history, and characteristics of intervention (type, setting, provider, duration) moderate the effects of psychosocial interventions. A synthesis of acceptability data will be undertaken, using a narrative approach to synthesis. A decision-analytic model will be constructed to compare the expected cost-effectiveness of the different types of intervention identified in the systematic review. We will also conduct a Value of information analysis if the data permit. EXPECTED OUTPUTS: A synthesis of the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for maltreated children (taking into account age, maltreatment profile and setting) and their acceptability to key stakeholders.

Comunicação organizacional e identidade colectiva num agrupamento de escolas

O reforço e a diversificação do investimento na comunicação por parte das instituições educativas são discutidos neste estudo como uma das consequências da nova gestão pública. Tendo em vista a ‘qualidade’ e a ‘eficácia’ das suas prestações, as escolas têm procurado tornar-se mais dialogantes, assumindo a aposta na comunicação organizacional como parte integrante de uma estratégia empreendedora, que lhes tem vindo a conferir uma nova identidade colectiva unificada em torno dos valores neoliberais. Não obstante, os sistemas de comunicação criados são mais complexos do que se poderia supor. Revelando a influência de pressões híbridas, estes sistemas transformaram-se num contexto mediador da mudança embutido em novas concepções de escola e dos novos mandatos para a educação (assim legitimados interna e externamente), surgindo, ao mesmo tempo, como o locus de produção de novas identidades. Tal acontece porque a comunicação constitui o ponto de convergência entre as diferentes políticas educativas e as práticas localmente adoptadas na sequência de um processo de interpretação criativa das diferentes pressões. É este o sentido com que afirmamos que a comunicação se constitui numa meta-ideia ao serviço da ‘qualidade’, ainda que esta possa ser perspectivada a partir do ideal burocrático da organização (como sinónimo de eficiência administrativa), do ideal profissional (centrada no processo de ensino-aprendizagem) ou do ideal empreendedor (valorizando a capacidade de resposta às solicitações do mercado). Os dados empíricos, que sustentaram o nosso estudo, resultaram da observação do quotidiano de um agrupamento de escolas do ensinobásico e dos testemunhos recolhidos, ao longo de três anos, nesta comunidade educativa. Recorrendo ao estudo de caso como estratégia de investigação enveredámos inicialmente, num contexto de descoberta, pela realização de observações ‘desarmadas e naturais’. Usámos, posteriormente, a análise documental, a entrevista e o questionário na recolha de informação complementar, o que, mediante o cruzamento de métodos de análise qualitativa e quantitativa, nos permitiu tirar partido da triangulação dos dados. Os resultados obtidos apontam para a centralidade dos processos de comunicação na transformação induzida pela nova gestão pública e para o desenvolvimento de uma matriz discursiva bilinguista, que procura harmonizar os imperativos de ‘mercado’ com o discurso pedagógico e com modelos burocrático-profissionais de organização.

Trabalho colaborativo docente na gestão do currículo do ensino básico: do discurso às práticas

A diversidade, complexidade e imprevisibilidade que caracterizam a sociedade actual exigem da Escola uma articulação eficaz entre as aprendizagens e a realidade sociocultural dos alunos, de modo a promover a formação de cidadãos instruídos, competentes, críticos e aptos para aprender a aprender ao longo da vida. Neste sentido, é crucial contextualizar e gerir o currículo, adequando-o à multiplicidade e idiossincrasias dos alunos e seus contextos, assegurando-lhes aprendizagens funcionais e de qualidade. A implementação do processo de Reorganização Curricular do Ensino Básico, consubstanciado através da promulgação do Decreto-Lei n.º 6/2001, de 18 de Janeiro, ambiciona(va) melhorar a eficácia de resposta da escola ao seu mandato social, atribuindo a esta a centralidade na reconceptualização do currículo nacional em função dos contextos com que trabalha. Para tal, a auto-implicação, a negociação e a colaboração são pressupostos indispensáveis a um processo de gestão curricular centrado na escola e operacionalizado no contexto das suas diferentes estruturas. Nesta perspectiva, estruturas de gestão curricular intermédia como o conselho de turma e o departamento curricular, assumem particular ênfase na promoção e desenvolvimento de práticas de colaboração docente fulcrais a processos de gestão curricular. Assim, analisar e aprofundar conhecimento sobre condições facilitadoras, bem como factores de dificultação, do desenvolvimento de práticas de colaboração docente no contexto das referidas estruturas, identificadas na sequência da implementação da orientação de política curricular traduzida no referido decreto-lei constituiu o principal objectivo subjacente a este estudo. Procurou-se relacionar esta análise com dimensões de cultura profissional e organizacional, que a literatura e a investigação revistas documentam como factores relevantes na transformação de práticas curriculares. O presente estudo decorreu em dois momentos: o primeiro, no ano lectivo de 2006/2007, assumiu uma natureza predominantemente quantitativa, privilegiando-se como técnica de recolha de dados o inquérito por questionário aplicado 2718 professores que se encontravam a leccionar Ciências da Natureza, Ciências Naturais ou Ciências Físico-Químicas na rede de escolas públicas com 2º e 3º Ciclos da Direcção Regional de Educação do Norte (DREN) e do Centro de Área Educativa (CAE) de Aveiro, o qual foi complementado com a realização de uma entrevista semi-estruturada a seis professores de Ciências Físicas e Naturais; o segundo momento, realizado no ano lectivo de 2007/2008, adoptou uma metodologia de investigação, essencialmente, qualitativa – estudo de caso – desenvolvido numa escola básica com 2º e 3º ciclos com doze professores pertencentes a um conselho de turma e com oito professores de Ciências Físicas e Naturais afectos ao departamento curricular de Matemática e Ciências Experimentais. Este momento caracterizou-se pela: i) realização de dois percursos formativos, um com professores do conselho de turma e outro com os professores de Ciências Físicas e Naturais; ii) observação de reuniões de trabalho em contexto das estruturas supramencionadas; iii) planificação, implementação e avaliação de uma aula em regime de co-docência, abordando uma temática na perspectiva Ciência, Tecnologia e Sociedade e iv) realização de entrevistas a todos os professores participantes, aos Presidentes do Conselho Executivo e do Conselho Pedagógico e à Coordenadora do Departamento Curricular de Matemática e Ciências Experimentais. O sistema de análise de dados utilizado visou a compreensão das dinâmicas de trabalho docente desenvolvidas no processo de gestão curricular no contexto das estruturas de gestão intermédia em análise. Neste sentido, privilegiaram-se a análise estatística e de conteúdo como técnicas de tratamento dos dados. Os resultados deste estudo apontam para a prevalência de uma cultura docente fortemente individualizada, balcanizada e burocratizada, facto que restringe o desenvolvimento de práticas de gestão curricular e de dinâmicas de trabalho docente sustentadas e adequadas ao contexto e necessidades específicas dos alunos. Sugerem, igualmente, que o desenvolvimento de práticas de colaboração docente não é consequência directa da decisão espontânea e voluntarismo dos professores ou de uma imposição externa não assumida pelos mesmos, mas sim de uma convergência de factores de responsabilização, reconhecimento da utilidade e eficácia da colaboração, e incentivo organizacional que se revelaram pouco significativos no estudo em causa. Por outro lado, indiciam que uma efectiva colaboração docente implica transformações no plano das culturas, que não decorrem dos normativos, e é potenciada por processos de negociação, onde os diferentes actores educativos partilham responsabilidades e uma autonomia cimentada numa visão colectiva e integradora do projecto educativo e curricular da escola. No sentido de contribuir para a consolidação do conhecimento no domínio em estudo, consideramos necessária a realização de outras investigações centradas no mesmo objecto de estudo, mas desenvolvidas em outros contextos escolares.

Um modelo de medição e gestão de desempenho para as universidades públicas

Nas últimas décadas as instituições de ensino superior têm sido alvo de uma pressão crescente para aumentar a sua eficiência e a sua eficácia. Fatores como a diversificação da oferta formativa, a massificação, o aumento da internacionalização, entre outros, conduziram a uma maior monitorização das instituições e, por sua vez, geraram o desenvolvimento de novos sistemas de informação. A constante solicitação de informação, quer pelo Estado, quer pelo mercado constitui a base para a definição do objetivo desta investigação: construir um modelo integrado de medição e gestão de desempenho para as universidades públicas e testá-lo no universo português. Para a construção conceptual deste modelo foi realizada uma revisão da literatura baseada em diferentes contextos: organizacional, europeu e nacional. Este modelo foi depois aplicado às universidades públicas portuguesas recorrendo a dados disponibilizados por entidades públicas, tendo em conta a área de educação e formação (CNAEF). Uma análise descritiva aos dados constituiu uma contribuição desta investigação para a prática, no sentido de que permitiu fornecer um conjunto de recomendações às universidades e às entidades oficiais responsáveis pela recolha de dados a nível nacional, relativamente aos sistemas de informação e processos de recolha de dados. O modelo proposto constitui a contribuição teórica desta investigação, no sentido de que integra, no mesmo modelo, as diferentes dimensões de desempenho, a visão dos diferentes stakeholders, quer no contexto do ensino, quer no da investigação, quer no da própria gestão da universidade. A vertente analítica deste modelo, representada pelas diferentes relações entre os grupos de indicadores, foi testada recorrendo à técnica de análise de equações estruturais baseada na variância (nomeadamente Partial Least Squares) em quatro áreas CNAEF. Os resultados demonstraram que o comportamento em termos de medição e gestão de desempenho difere consoante a CNAEF, identificando um maior ajustamento às áreas hard e evidenciando que as áreas soft necessitam de indicadores mais ajustados às suas especificidades.

The effects of chemicals in isopods : a multi-organizational evaluation

The global aim of this thesis was to evaluate and assess the effects of a pesticide (dimethoate) and a metal (nickel), as model chemicals, within different organization levels, starting at the detoxification pathways (enzymatic biomarkers) and energy costs associated (energy content quantification, energy consumption and CEA) along with the physiological alterations at the individual and population level (mortality), leading to a metabolomic analysis (using liquid 1H-NMR) and finally a gene expression analysis (transcriptome and RT-qPCR analysis). To better understand potential variations in response to stressors, abiotic factors were also assessed in terrestrial isopods such as temperature, soil moisture and UV radiation. The evaluation performed using biochemical biomarkers and energy related parameters showed that increases in temperature might negatively affect the organisms by generating oxidative stress. It also showed that this species is acclimated to environments with low soil moisture, and that in high moisture scenarios there was a short gap between the optimal and adverse conditions that led to increased mortality. As for UV-R, doses nowadays present have shown to induce significant negative impact on these organisms. The long-term exposure to dimethoate showed that besides the neurotoxicity resulting from acetylcholinesterase inhibition, this stressor also caused oxidative stress. This effect was observed for both concentrations used (recommended field dose application and a below EC50 value) and that its combination with different temperatures (20ºC and 25ºC) showed different response patterns. It was also observed that dimethoate’s degradation rate in soils was higher in the presence of isopods. In a similar study performed with nickel, oxidative stress was also observed. But, in the case of this stressor exposure, organisms showed a strategy where the energetic costs necessary for detoxification (biomarkers) seemed to be compensated by positive alterations in the energy related parameters. In this work we presented for the first time a metabolomic profile of terrestrial isopods exposed to stressors (dimethoate and niquel), since until the moment only a previous study was performed on a metabolomic evaluation in nonexposed isopods. In the first part of the study we identify 24 new metabolites that had not been described previously. On the second part of the study a metabolomic profile variation of abstract non-exposed organism throughout the exposure was presented and finally the metabolomic profile of organisms exposed to dimethoate and nickel. The exposure to nickel suggested alteration in growth, moult, haemocyanin and glutathione synthesis, energy pathways and in osmoregulation. As for the exposure to dimethoate alterations in osmoregulation, energy pathways, moult and neurotransmission were also suggested. In this work it was also presented the first full body transcriptome of a terrestrial isopod from the species Porcellionides pruinosus, which will complement the scarce information available for this group of organisms. This transcriptome also served as base for a RNA-Seq and a RT-qPCR analysis. The results of the RNA-Seq analysis performed in organisms exposed to nickel showed that this stressor negatively impacted at the genetic and epigenetic levels, in the trafficking, storage and elimination of metals, generates oxidative stress, inducing neurotoxicity and also affecting reproduction. These results were confirmed through RT-qPCR. As for the impact of dimethoate on these organisms it was only accessed through RT-qPCR and showed oxidative stress, an impact in neurotransmission, in epigenetic markers, DNA repair and cell cycle impairment. This study allowed the design of an Adverse Outcome Pathway draft that can be used further on for legislative purposes.

Assessing the effectiveness of chemical treatment with nanomaterials in improving the quality of different industrial effluents

Industrial activities are the major sources of pollution in all environments. Depending on the type of industry, various levels of organic and inorganic pollutants are being continuously discharged into the environment. Although, several kinds of physical, chemical, biological or the combination of methods have been proposed and applied to minimize the impact of industrial effluents, few have proved to be totally effective in terms of removal rates of several contaminants, toxicity reduction or amelioration of physical and chemical properties. Hence, it is imperative to develop new and innovative methodologies for industrial wastewater treatment. In this context nanotechnology arises announcing the offer of new possibilities for the treatment of wastewaters mainly based on the enhanced physical and chemical proprieties of nanomaterials (NMs), which can remarkably increase their adsorption and oxidation potential. Although applications of NMs may bring benefits, their widespread use will also contribute for their introduction into the environment and concerns have been raised about the intentional use of these materials. Further, the same properties that make NMs so appealing can also be responsible for producing ecotoxicological effects. In a first stage, with the objective of selecting NMs for the treatment of organic and inorganic effluents we first assessed the potential toxicity of nanoparticles of nickel oxide (NiO) with two different sizes (100 and 10-20 nm), titanium dioxide (TiO2, < 25 nm) and iron oxide (Fe2O3, ≈ 85x425 nm). The ecotoxicological assessment was performed with a battery of assays using aquatic organisms from different trophic levels. Since TiO2 and Fe2O3 were the NMs that presented lower risks to the aquatic systems, they were selected for the second stage of this work. Thus, the two NMs pre-selected were tested for the treatment of olive mill wastewater (OMW). They were used as catalyst in photodegradation systems (TiO2/UV, Fe2O3/UV, TiO2/H2O2/UV and Fe2O3/H2O2/UV). The treatments with TiO2 or Fe2O3 combined with H2O2 were the most efficient in ameliorating some chemical properties of the effluent. Regarding the toxicity to V. fischeri the highest reduction was recorded for the H2O2/UV system, without NMs. Afterwards a sequential treatment using photocatalytic oxidation with NMs and degradation with white-rot fungi was applied to OMW. This new approach increased the reduction of chemical oxygen demand, phenolic content and ecotoxicity to V. fischeri. However, no reduction in color and aromatic compounds was achieved after 21 days of biological treatment. The photodegradation systems were also applied to treat the kraft pulp mill and mining effluents. For the organic effluent the combination NMs and H2O2 had the best performances in reduction the chemical parameters as well in terms of toxicity reduction. However, for the mine effluent the best (TiO2/UV and Fe2O3/UV) were only able to significantly remove three metals (Zn, Al and Cd). Nonetheless the treatments were able of reducing the toxicity of the effluent. As a final stage, the toxicity of solid wastes formed during wastewater treatment with NMs was assessed with Chironomus riparius larvae, a representative species of the sediment compartment. Certain solid wastes showed the potential to negatively affect C. riparius survival and growth, depending on the type of effluent treated. This work also brings new insights to the use of NMs for the treatment of industrial wastewaters. Although some potential applications have been announced, many evaluations have to be performed before the upscaling of the chemical treatments with NMs.

Avaliação interna de escolas

Dissertação de Mestrado, Supervisão, Especialização em 1.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

Creativity and problem solving in the development of organizational innovation

This research focuses on creativity and innovation management in organizations. We present a model of intervention that aims at establishing a culture of organizational innovation through the internal development of individual and team creativity focusing on problem solving. The model relies on management’s commitment and in the organization’s talented people (creative leaders and employees) as a result of their ability in defining a better organization. The design follows Min Basadur’s problem solving approach consisting of problem finding, fact finding, problem definition, solution finding and decision implementation. These steps are carried out using specific techniques and procedures that will link creative people and management in order to initiate the process until problems are defined. For each defined problem, project teams will develop possible solutions and implement these decisions. Thus, a system of transformation of the individual and team creativity into organizational innovation can be established.

Using creative problem solving (CPS) to improve leadership in a non-profit organization

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Creative Problem Solving (CPS) method in improving the leadership process in a non-profit organization. The research was designed around an intervention and structured in three stages (pre-consult, intervention and follow-up), with a team designated by management, in order to bring leadership cohesion to both departments of the organization and also between the board and executive management. The results, expressed in the tasks performed and in the interviews to team members, allowed us to conclude on the effectiveness of the CPS method to improve organizational leadership, by establishing a stronger relationship between departments, as well as, in the long term, between the board and executive management. These results highlight possible solutions to improve the leadership of non-profit organizations.

A global assessment of the effectiveness of different protection levels in marine protected areas of tropical waters, following a new categorization

Dissertação de mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

Disfuncionalidades do sistema jurídico criminal do Brasil em face do direito fundamental à segurança

Tese de doutoramento, Direito (Ciências Jurídico-Políticas), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Direito, 2014