Operational active fire mapping and burnt area identification applicable to Mexican Nature Protection Areas using MODIS and NOAA-AVHRR direct readout data

Since 1999, the National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of the Biodiversity (CONABIO) in Mexico has been developing and managing the “Operational program for the detection of hot-spots using remote sensing techniques”. This program uses images from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA-AVHRR), which are operationally received through the Direct Readout station (DR) at CONABIO. This allows the near-real time monitoring of fire events in Mexico and Central America. In addition to the detection of active fires, the location of hot spots are classified with respect to vegetation types, accessibility, and risk to Nature Protection Areas (NPA). Besides the fast detection of fires, further analysis is necessary due to the considerable effects of forest fires on biodiversity and human life. This fire impact assessment is crucial to support the needs of resource managers and policy makers for adequate fire recovery and restoration actions. CONABIO attempts to meet these requirements, providing post-fire assessment products as part of the management system in particular for satellite-based burnt area mapping. This paper provides an overview of the main components of the operational system and will present an outlook to future activities and system improvements, especially the development of a burnt area product. A special focus will also be placed on the fire occurrence within NPAs of Mexico

Rainfall estimation by rain gauge-radar combination: a concurrent multiplicative-additive approach

A procedure (concurrent multiplicative-additive objective analysis scheme [CMA-OAS]) is proposed for operational rainfall estimation using rain gauges and radar data. On the basis of a concurrent multiplicative-additive (CMA) decomposition of the spatially nonuniform radar bias, within-storm variability of rainfall and fractional coverage of rainfall are taken into account. Thus both spatially nonuniform radar bias, given that rainfall is detected, and bias in radar detection of rainfall are handled. The interpolation procedure of CMA-OAS is built on Barnes' objective analysis scheme (OAS), whose purpose is to estimate a filtered spatial field of the variable of interest through a successive correction of residuals resulting from a Gaussian kernel smoother applied on spatial samples. The CMA-OAS, first, poses an optimization problem at each gauge-radar support point to obtain both a local multiplicative-additive radar bias decomposition and a regionalization parameter. Second, local biases and regionalization parameters are integrated into an OAS to estimate the multisensor rainfall at the ground level. The procedure is suited to relatively sparse rain gauge networks. To show the procedure, six storms are analyzed at hourly steps over 10,663 km2. Results generally indicated an improved quality with respect to other methods evaluated: a standard mean-field bias adjustment, a spatially variable adjustment with multiplicative factors, and ordinary cokriging.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 1: Structure parameters

Scintillometry, a form of ground-based remote sensing, provides the capability to estimate surface heat fluxes over scales of a few hundred metres to kilometres. Measurements are spatial averages, making this technique particularly valuable over areas with moderate heterogeneity such as mixed agricultural or urban environments. In this study, we present the structure parameters of temperature and humidity, which can be related to the sensible and latent heat fluxes through similarity theory, for a suburban area in the UK. The fluxes are provided in the second paper of this two-part series. A millimetre-wave scintillometer was combined with an infrared scintillometer along a 5.5 km path over northern Swindon. The pairing of these two wavelengths offers sensitivity to both temperature and humidity fluctuations, and the correlation between wavelengths is also used to retrieve the path-averaged temperature–humidity correlation. Comparison is made with structure parameters calculated from an eddy covariance station located close to the centre of the scintillometer path. The performance of the measurement techniques under different conditions is discussed. Similar behaviour is seen between the two data sets at sub-daily timescales. For the two summer-to-winter periods presented here, similar evolution is displayed across the seasons. A higher vegetation fraction within the scintillometer source area is consistent with the lower Bowen ratio observed (midday Bowen ratio < 1) compared with more built-up areas around the eddy covariance station. The energy partitioning is further explored in the companion paper.

Exploring strategies for coupled 4D-Var data assimilation using an idealised atmosphere-ocean model

Operational forecasting centres are currently developing data assimilation systems for coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Strongly coupled assimilation, in which a single assimilation system is applied to a coupled model, presents significant technical and scientific challenges. Hence weakly coupled assimilation systems are being developed as a first step, in which the coupled model is used to compare the current state estimate with observations, but corrections to the atmosphere and ocean initial conditions are then calculated independently. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the different coupled assimilation methodologies in the context of four dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) and use an idealised framework to assess the expected benefits of moving towards coupled data assimilation. We implement an incremental 4D-Var system within an idealised single column atmosphere-ocean model. The system has the capability to run both strongly and weakly coupled assimilations as well as uncoupled atmosphere or ocean only assimilations, thus allowing a systematic comparison of the different strategies for treating the coupled data assimilation problem. We present results from a series of identical twin experiments devised to investigate the behaviour and sensitivities of the different approaches. Overall, our study demonstrates the potential benefits that may be expected from coupled data assimilation. When compared to uncoupled initialisation, coupled assimilation is able to produce more balanced initial analysis fields, thus reducing initialisation shock and its impact on the subsequent forecast. Single observation experiments demonstrate how coupled assimilation systems are able to pass information between the atmosphere and ocean and therefore use near-surface data to greater effect. We show that much of this benefit may also be gained from a weakly coupled assimilation system, but that this can be sensitive to the parameters used in the assimilation.

Influence of galacto-oligosaccharide mixture (B-GOS) on gut microbiota, immune parameters and metabonomics in elderly persons

It is recognised that ageing induces various changes to the human colonic microbiota. Most relevant is a reduction in bifidobacteria, which is a health-positive genus. Prebiotics, such as galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS), are dietary ingredients that selectively fortify beneficial gut microbial groups. Therefore, they have the potential to reverse the age-related decline in bifidobacteria and modulate associated health parameters. We assessed the effect of GOS mixture (Bimuno (B-GOS)) on gut microbiota, markers of immune function and metabolites in forty elderly (age 65-80 years) volunteers in a randomised, double-blind, placebo (maltodextrin)-controlled, cross-over study. The intervention periods consisted of 10 weeks with daily doses of 5·5 g/d with a 4-week washout period in between. Blood and faecal samples were collected for the analyses of faecal bacterial populations and immune and metabolic biomarkers. B-GOS consumption led to significant increases in bacteroides and bifidobacteria, the latter correlating with increased lactic acid in faecal waters. Higher IL-10, IL-8, natural killer cell activity and C-reactive protein and lower IL-1β were also observed. Administration of B-GOS to elderly volunteers may be useful in positively affecting the microbiota and some markers of immune function associated with ageing.

Variation in morphological and physiological parameters in herbaceous perennial legumes in response to phosphorus supply

Change in morphological and physiological parameters in response to phosphorus (P) supply was studied in 11 perennial herbaceous legume species, six Australian native (Lotus australis, Cullen australasicum, Kennedia prorepens, K. prostrata, Glycine canescens, C. tenax) and five exotic species (Medicago sativa, Lotononis bainesii, Bituminaria bituminosa var albomarginata, Lotus corniculatus, Macroptilium bracteatum). We aimed to identify mechanisms for P acquisition from soil. Plants were grown in sterilised washed river sand; eight levels of P as KH2PO4 ranging from 0 to 384 μg P g−1 soil were applied. Plant growth under low-P conditions strongly correlated with physiological P-use efficiency and/or P-uptake efficiency. Taking all species together, at 6 μg P g−1 soil there was a good correlation between P uptake and both root surface area and total root length. All species had higher amounts of carboxylates in the rhizosphere under a low level of P application. Six of the 11 species increased the fraction of rhizosphere citrate in response to low P, which was accompanied by a reduction in malonate, except L. corniculatus. In addition, species showed different plasticity in response to P-application levels and different strategies in response to P deficiency. Our results show that many of the 11 species have prospects for low-input agroecosystems based on their high P-uptake and P-use efficiency.

SPARE-ICE: synergistic Ice Water Path from passive operational sensors

This article presents SPARE-ICE, the Synergistic Passive Atmospheric Retrieval Experiment-ICE. SPARE-ICE is the first Ice Water Path (IWP) product combining infrared and microwave radiances. By using only passive operational sensors, the SPARE-ICE retrieval can be used to process data from at least the NOAA 15 to 19 and MetOp satellites, obtaining time series from 1998 onward. The retrieval is developed using collocations between passive operational sensors (solar, terrestrial infrared, microwave), the CloudSat radar, and the CALIPSO lidar. The collocations form a retrieval database matching measurements from passive sensors against the existing active combined radar-lidar product 2C-ICE. With this retrieval database, we train a pair of artificial neural networks to detect clouds and retrieve IWP. When considering solar, terrestrial infrared, and microwave-based measurements, we show that any combination of two techniques performs better than either single-technique retrieval. We choose not to include solar reflectances in SPARE-ICE, because the improvement is small, and so that SPARE-ICE can be retrieved both daytime and nighttime. The median fractional error between SPARE-ICE and 2C-ICE is around a factor 2, a figure similar to the random error between 2C-ICE ice water content (IWC) and in situ measurements. A comparison of SPARE-ICE with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Pathfinder Atmospheric Extended (PATMOS-X), and Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS) indicates that SPARE-ICE appears to perform well even in difficult conditions. SPARE-ICE is available for public use.

Mathematical relationships between scoring parameters in capped tendering

Mathematical relationships between Scoring Parameters can be used in Economic Scoring Formulas (ESF) in tendering to distribute the score among bidders in the economic part of a proposal. Each contracting authority must set an ESF when publishing tender specifications and the strategy of each bidder will differ depending on the ESF selected and the weight of the overall proposal scoring. This paper introduces the various mathematical relationships and density distributions that describe and inter-relate not only the main Scoring Parameters but the main Forecasting Parameters in any capped tender (those whose price is upper-limited). Forecasting Parameters, as variables that can be known in advance before the deadline of a tender is reached, together with Scoring Parameters constitute the basis of a future Bid Tender Forecasting Model.

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill.

Investigation and optimization of parameters affecting the multiply charged ion yield in AP-MALDI MS

Liquid matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) allows the generation of predominantly multiply charged ions in atmospheric pressure (AP) MALDI ion sources for mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. The charge state distribution of the generated ions and the efficiency of the ion source in generating such ions crucially depend on the desolvation regime of the MALDI plume after desorption in the AP-tovacuum inlet. Both high temperature and a flow regime with increased residence time of the desorbed plume in the desolvation region promote the generation of multiply charged ions. Without such measures the application of an electric ion extraction field significantly increases the ion signal intensity of singly charged species while the detection of multiply charged species is less dependent on the extraction field. In general, optimization of high temperature application facilitates the predominant formation and detection of multiply charged compared to singly charged ion species. In this study an experimental setup and optimization strategy is described for liquid AP-MALDI MS which improves the ionization effi- ciency of selected ion species up to 14 times. In combination with ion mobility separation, the method allows the detection of multiply charged peptide and protein ions for analyte solution concentrations as low as 2 fmol/lL (0.5 lL, i.e. 1 fmol, deposited on the target) with very low sample consumption in the low nL-range.