Testing demographic models of effective population size.

Due to practical difficulties in obtaining direct genetic estimates of effective sizes, conservation biologists have to rely on so-called 'demographic models' which combine life-history and mating-system parameters with F-statistics in order to produce indirect estimates of effective sizes. However, for the same practical reasons that prevent direct genetic estimates, the accuracy of demographic models is difficult to evaluate. Here we use individual-based, genetically explicit computer simulations in order to investigate the accuracy of two such demographic models aimed at investigating the hierarchical structure of populations. We show that, by and large, these models provide good estimates under a wide range of mating systems and dispersal patterns. However, one of the models should be avoided whenever the focal species' breeding system approaches monogamy with no sex bias in dispersal or when a substructure within social groups is suspected because effective sizes may then be strongly overestimated. The timing during the life cycle at which F-statistics are evaluated is also of crucial importance and attention should be paid to it when designing field sampling since different demographic models assume different timings. Our study shows that individual-based, genetically explicit models provide a promising way of evaluating the accuracy of demographic models of effective size and delineate their field of applicability.

Population based resource allocation: The use of hybrid risk adjustment

The emphasis on integrated care implies new incentives that promote coordinationbetween levels of care. Considering a population as a whole, the resource allocation systemhas to adapt to this environment. This research is aimed to design a model that allows formorbidity related prospective and concurrent capitation payment. The model can be applied inpublicly funded health systems and managed competition settings.Methods: We analyze the application of hybrid risk adjustment versus either prospective orconcurrent risk adjustment formulae in the context of funding total health expenditures for thepopulation of an integrated healthcare delivery organization in Catalonia during years 2004 and2005.Results: The hybrid model reimburses integrated care organizations avoiding excessive risktransfer and maximizing incentives for efficiency in the provision. At the same time, it eliminatesincentives for risk selection for a specific set of high risk individuals through the use ofconcurrent reimbursement in order to assure a proper classification of patients.Conclusion: Prospective Risk Adjustment is used to transfer the financial risk to the healthprovider and therefore provide incentives for efficiency. Within the context of a National HealthSystem, such transfer of financial risk is illusory, and the government has to cover the deficits.Hybrid risk adjustment is useful to provide the right combination of incentive for efficiency andappropriate level of risk transfer for integrated care organizations.

Le poids, les habitudes alimentaires et l'activité physique dans la population en Suisse: le projet MONICA. [Weight, nutritional habits and physical-activity in Switzerland: the MONICA-Project].

La première enquête de prévalence des facteurs de risque pour les maladies cardio-vasculaires qui a été effectuée auprès de la population des cantons de Vaud, Fribourg et du Tessin, dans le cadre du Projet MONICA, a permis de décrire la distribution de l'indice de masse corporelle. Entre 25 et 74 ans, près d'une personne sur 4 a un excès de poids préjudiciable à sa santé, cette proportion étant même de plus de 1 sur 3 chez les hommes tessinois. Cet état de fait n'est peut-être pas irrémédiable puisque 1 femme sur 3 et 1 homme sur 5 a modifié ses habitudes alimentaires dans le sens d'une nourriture plus saine et moins énergétique au cours des 12 mois précédant l'enquête. Cependant une activité physique régulière, susceptible d'avoir un rôle préventif sur la survenue des maladies cardio-vasculaires et qui pourrait contribuer à la diminution de la fréquence de l'obésité, n'est exercée que par moins de la moitié de la population en moyenne. C'est probablement l'exercice régulier d'activités sportives qui permettrait le plus d'augmenter le niveau général de l'activité physique dans la population puisque peu de personnes exercent une profession exigeant d'intenses efforts physiques.

Communication, coordination and efficiency in evolutionary one-population models

We analyze the role of commitment in pre-play communication for ensuringefficient evolutionarily stable outcomes in coordination games. All players are a priori identical as they are drawn from the same population. In games where efficient outcomes can be reached by players coordinating on the same action we find commitment to be necessary to enforce efficiency. In games where efficienct outcomes only result from play of different actions, communication without commitment is most effective although efficiency can no longer be guaranteed. Only when there are many messages then inefficient outcomes are negligible as their basins of attraction become very small.

Hyperhomocysteinemia is independently associated with albuminuria in the population-based CoLaus study.

Increased serum levels of homocysteine and uric acid have each been associated with cardiovascular risk. We analyzed whether homocysteine and uric acid were associated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria independently of each other. We also investigated the association of MTHFR polymorphisms related to homocysteine with albuminuria to get further insight into causality. This was a cross-sectional population-based study in Caucasians (n = 5913). Hyperhomocysteinemia was defined as total serum homocysteine ≥ 15 μmol/L. Albuminuria was defined as urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g. Uric acid was associated positively with homocysteine (r = 0.246 in men and r = 0.287 in women, P < 0.001). The prevalence of albuminuria increased across increasing homocysteine categories (from 6.4% to 17.3% in subjects with normal GFR and from 3.5% to 14.5% in those with reduced GFR, P for trend < 0.005). Hyperhomocysteinemia (OR = 2.22, 95% confidence interval: 1.60-3.08, P < 0.001) and elevated serum uric acid (OR = 1.27, 1.08-1.50, per 100 μmol/L, P = 0.004) were significantly associated with albuminuria, independently of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. The 2-fold higher risk of albuminuria associated with hyperhomocysteinemia was similar to the risk associated with hypertension or diabetes. MTHFR alleles related to higher homocysteine were associated with increased risk of albuminuria. In the general adult population, elevated serum homocysteine and uric acid were associated with albuminuria independently of each other and of renal function.

Genome-wide association study of major recurrent depression in the U.K. population.

OBJECTIVE: Studies of major depression in twins and families have shown moderate to high heritability, but extensive molecular studies have failed to identify susceptibility genes convincingly. To detect genetic variants contributing to major depression, the authors performed a genome-wide association study using 1,636 cases of depression ascertained in the U.K. and 1,594 comparison subjects screened negative for psychiatric disorders. METHOD: Cases were collected from 1) a case-control study of recurrent depression (the Depression Case Control [DeCC] study; N=1346), 2) an affected sibling pair linkage study of recurrent depression (probands from the Depression Network [DeNT] study; N=332), and 3) a pharmacogenetic study (the Genome-Based Therapeutic Drugs for Depression [GENDEP] study; N=88). Depression cases and comparison subjects were genotyped at Centre National de Génotypage on the Illumina Human610-Quad BeadChip. After applying stringent quality control criteria for missing genotypes, departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, and low minor allele frequency, the authors tested for association to depression using logistic regression, correcting for population ancestry. RESULTS: Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in BICC1 achieved suggestive evidence for association, which strengthened after imputation of ungenotyped markers, and in analysis of female depression cases. A meta-analysis of U.K. data with previously published results from studies in Munich and Lausanne showed some evidence for association near neuroligin 1 (NLGN1) on chromosome 3, but did not support findings at BICC1. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies several signals for association worthy of further investigation but, as in previous genome-wide studies, suggests that individual gene contributions to depression are likely to have only minor effects, and very large pooled analyses will be required to identify them.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Physical activity assessment using a pedometer and its comparison with a questionnaire in a large population survey.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the pedometer in epidemiologic research on physical activity. Within the framework of a health examination survey in 1988-1989, physical activity was assessed in a representative population sample of 493 men and women aged 25-74 years who were residents of Switzerland. They wore a pedometer for 1 week at work and during leisure time, and the results, converted into steps per day, were compared with answers to a questionnaire. The average number of steps per day decreased from 11,900 to 6,700 and from 9,300 to 7,300 for men and women, respectively, in the youngest to the oldest age groups. For men, categorized according to type of physical activity at work, there was a highly significant difference in the number of steps (p < 0.001), whereas in women the results were associated with leisure-time physical activity (p = 0.003). For both sexes, practicing sports more than once a week was associated with an important increase in steps per day. Analyzing the number of steps according to the day of the week and occupational category produced an unexpected result: Men with a physically active job engaged in more leisure-time physical activity on the weekend. The pedometer proved to be useful in assessing physical activity in a large, free-living population.

Use of a combined ex vivo/in vivo population approach for screening of human genes involved in the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 life cycle for variants influencing disease progression.

Humans differ substantially with respect to susceptibility to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). We evaluated variants of nine host genes participating in the viral life cycle for their role in modulating HIV-1 infection. Alleles were assessed ex vivo for their impact on viral replication in purified CD4 T cells from healthy blood donors (n = 128). Thereafter, candidate alleles were assessed in vivo in a cohort of HIV-1-infected individuals (n = 851) not receiving potent antiretroviral therapy. As a benchmark test, we tested 12 previously reported host genetic variants influencing HIV-1 infection as well as single nucleotide polymorphisms in the nine candidate genes. This led to the proposition of three alleles of PML, TSG101, and PPIA as potentially associated with differences in progression of HIV-1 disease. In a model considering the combined effects of new and previously reported gene variants, we estimated that their effect might be responsible for lengthening or shortening by up to 2.8 years the period from 500 CD4 T cells/mul to <200 CD4 T cells/mul.

Participation de la population au dépistage du cancer du sein : déterminants et enjeux

Cet article présente le résumé de l'atelier consacré au dépistage du cancer du sein organisé dans le cadre de la 70e Assemblée annuelle de la Société suisse de médecine interne qui s'est tenue à Genève du 25 au 27 avril 2002. L'objectif de cet atelier était d'identifier, sur la base des programmes pilotes conduits en Suisse ainsi que dans le Bas-Rhin (France), les modalités d'organisation les mieux adaptées au contexte sanitaire et culturel local afin d'optimiser la participation de la population aux programmes de dépistage du cancer susceptibles d'être mis en oeuvre dans les prochaines années. En effet, une participation élevée constitue, avec l'exigence de qualité, la condition nécessaire pour que ces programmes soient efficaces.