In search of exchange rate predictability : a study about accuracy, consistency, and granger causality of forecasts generated by a Taylor Rule Model

Este estudo investiga o poder preditivo fora da amostra, um mês à frente, de um modelo baseado na regra de Taylor para previsão de taxas de câmbio. Revisamos trabalhos relevantes que concluem que modelos macroeconômicos podem explicar a taxa de câmbio de curto prazo. Também apresentamos estudos que são céticos em relação à capacidade de variáveis macroeconômicas preverem as variações cambiais. Para contribuir com o tema, este trabalho apresenta sua própria evidência através da implementação do modelo que demonstrou o melhor resultado preditivo descrito por Molodtsova e Papell (2009), o “symmetric Taylor rule model with heterogeneous coefficients, smoothing, and a constant”. Para isso, utilizamos uma amostra de 14 moedas em relação ao dólar norte-americano que permitiu a geração de previsões mensais fora da amostra de janeiro de 2000 até março de 2014. Assim como o critério adotado por Galimberti e Moura (2012), focamos em países que adotaram o regime de câmbio flutuante e metas de inflação, porém escolhemos moedas de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados da nossa pesquisa corroboram o estudo de Rogoff e Stavrakeva (2008), ao constatar que a conclusão da previsibilidade da taxa de câmbio depende do teste estatístico adotado, sendo necessária a adoção de testes robustos e rigorosos para adequada avaliação do modelo. Após constatar não ser possível afirmar que o modelo implementado provém previsões mais precisas do que as de um passeio aleatório, avaliamos se, pelo menos, o modelo é capaz de gerar previsões “racionais”, ou “consistentes”. Para isso, usamos o arcabouço teórico e instrumental definido e implementado por Cheung e Chinn (1998) e concluímos que as previsões oriundas do modelo de regra de Taylor são “inconsistentes”. Finalmente, realizamos testes de causalidade de Granger com o intuito de verificar se os valores defasados dos retornos previstos pelo modelo estrutural explicam os valores contemporâneos observados. Apuramos que o modelo fundamental é incapaz de antecipar os retornos realizados.

Caracterização físico-química e ações farmacológicas hepatoprotetora, antiinflamatória, pró-angiogênica, antioxidante e anticoagulante da fração rica em fucana 0,8FRF 0,8 da alga marrom Lobophora variegata

This study examines the physical and chemical composition and the pharmacological effects of brown seaweed FRF 0.8 Lobophora variegata. Fractionation of the crude extract was done with the concentration of 0.8 volumes of acetone, obtaining the FRF 0.8. The physicochemical characterization showed that it was a fucana sulfated. Anti-inflammatory activity was assessed by paw edema model by the high rates of inhibition of the edema and the best results were in the fourth hour after induction (100 ± 1.4% at the dose of 75 mg / kg) and by the strong inhibitory activity of the enzyme myeloperoxidase (91.45% at the dose of 25 mg / kg). The hepataproteção was demonstrated by measurements of enzymatic and metabolic parameters indicative of liver damage, such as bilirubin (reduction in 68.81%, 70.68% and 68.21% for bilirubin total, direct and indirect, respectively at a dose of 75 mg / kg), ALT, AST and γ-GT (decrease of 76.93%, 44.58% and 50% respectively at a dose of 75 mg / kg) by analysis of histological slides of liver tissue, confirming that hepatoprotective effect the polymers of carbohydrates, showing a reduction in tissue damage caused by CCl4 and the inhibition of the enzyme complex of cytochrome P 450 (increasing sleep time in 54.6% and reducing the latency time in 71.43%). The effectiveness of the FRF 0.8 angiogenesis was examined in chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) of fertilized eggs, with the density of capillaries evaluated and scored, showing an effect proangigênico at all concentrations tested FRF (10 mg- 1000 mg). The FRF showed antioxidant activity on free radicals (by inhibiting Superoxide Radical in 55.62 ± 2.10%, Lipid Peroxidation in 100.15 ± 0.01%, Hydroxyl Radical in 41.84 ± 0.001% and 71.47 Peroxide in ± 2.69% at concentration of 0.62 mg / mL). The anticoagulant activity was observed with prolongation of activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) at 50 mg (> 240 s), showing that its action occurs in the intrinsic pathway of the coagulation cascade. Thus, our results indicate that these sulfated polysaccharides are an important pharmacological target

Calculable lepton masses, seesaw relations, and four neutrino mixings in a 3-3-1 model with an extra U(1) symmetry

We propose a scheme in which the masses of the heavier leptons obey seesaw type relations. The light lepton masses, except the electron and the electron neutrino ones, are generated by one loop level radiative corrections. We work in a version of the 3-3-1 electroweak model that predicts singlets (charged and neutral) of heavy leptons beyond the known ones. An extra U(1)(Omega) symmetry is introduced in order to avoid the light leptons getting masses at the tree level. The electron mass induces an explicit symmetry breaking at U(1)(Omega). We discuss also the mixing matrix among four neutrinos. The new energy scale required is not higher than a few TeV.

Growth of the mangrove crab Ucides cordatus (Brachyura, Ocypodidae)

During monthly samplings between September 1998 and August 2000. 3,660 specimens of Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763) (2054 males and 1606 females) were obtained and examined for size (CW carapace width) to determine growth-age equations for each sex. This species showed a slower growth, with a marked seasonal oscillation, in females as compared to males, suggesting application of the seasonal and nonseasonal von Bertalanffy growth model, respectively. CW∝ and k constant were closely similar for the two sexes (CW∝ (male) = 90.3 mm: CW∝ (female) = 88.6 mm; k(male) = 0.28; k(female) = 0.26). The age at sexual maturity was estimated to be around 3 years, while the age at legal size (CW = 60 mm) was 3.8 and 4.7 years for males and females, respectively. In the laboratory, juvenile stages did not show differences in growth rates under the same temperature and photoperiod conditions.

Ingestion rates of Artemia nauplii for different larval stages of Macrobrachium rosenbergii

The functional response between ingestion rate and food concentration was determined for each larval stage of Macrobrachium rosenbergii. Artemia franciscana nauplii were supplied at 2,4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 per milliliter. The nauplii were counted by sight using a Pasteur pipette and transferred to Petri dishes containing 40 ml of brackish water (12 parts per thousand) lying on the top of black plastic. One larva at each stage was individually placed into each Petri dish containing different food density. After 24 h, each larva was removed from the Petri dish and the leftover nauplii were counted. The amount consumed was determined by the difference between the initial and final number of nauplii. Ingestion rate (I) increased as food density (P) increased and was defined by the model I=I-m(1-e(-kP)). The results suggest four levels of ingestion during larval development. The first level includes stages II, III and IV, with average maximum consumption of about 40 nauplii/day; the second level includes stages V and VI, with consumption of approximately 55 nauplii/day; the third level includes stages VII and VIII, with consumption of 80-100 nauplii/day. The fourth level includes stages IX, X and XI, in which the high values for maximum ingestion (Im) exceed the load capacity of the medium. The low values for constant k (that may correspond to the adaptability of the food to prey characteristics, such as, size, mobility, etc.) obtained for stages IX, X and XI indicated that Artemia is not an adequate prey and there is necessity of a supplementary diet. The best relationship between predator and prey seemed to occur during stage IV Results obtained in the present work may subsidize future researches and serve as a guideline for practical considerations of feeding rates. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of tributyltin exposure in hermit crabs: Clibanarius vittatus as a model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Análise genético-quantitativa de pesos aos 8, 12, 18 e 24 meses de idade em um rebanho da raça Guzerá

O objetivo deste trabalho foi obter estimativas de herdabilidades, correlações genéticas, tendências genéticas e correlações de rank dos touros, para os pesos aos 8, 12, 18 e 24 meses de idade, no rebanho Guzerá do Campus da UNESP, Ilha Solteira, SP. As herdabilidades e os valores genéticos dos animais foram estimados por modelo animal, usando o programa computacional MTDFREML. As correlações genéticas (Pearson) e de rank dos touros (Spearman) foram obtidas pelo procedimento CORR do SAS, utilizando os valores genéticos dos animais, enquanto as tendências genéticas foram calculadas pelo procedimento REG do SAS, utilizando a média anual dos referidos valores genéticos. O modelo estatístico para a análise genética incluiu os efeitos fixos de grupo contemporâneo e a covariável idade da vaca ao parto (efeitos linear e quadrático), e os efeitos aleatórios genético aditivo direto, genético aditivo materno, de ambiente permanente da vaca e residual. As estimativas obtidas para a herdabilidade direta foram 0,14; 0,08; 0,08 e 0,13 e para materna, 0,01; 0,02; 0,02 e 0,05, respectivamente, para os pesos aos 8, 12, 18 e 24 meses de idade. As estimativas dos coeficientes de correlação genética foram positivas e de alta magnitude entre todos os pesos estudados. As tendências genéticas anuais foram baixas e significativas apenas para os pesos aos 8 e 18 meses de idade. As correlações de rank dos touros foram moderadas e significativas, implicando em razoável manutenção de posição de classificação dos touros, quando se comparam, dois a dois, os pesos estudados.

Short-term temporal changes of soil carbon losses after tillage described by a first-order decay model

Tillage stimulates soil carbon (C) losses by increasing aeration, changing temperature and moisture conditions, and thus favoring microbial decomposition. In addition, soil aggregate disruption by tillage exposes once protected organic matter to decomposition. We propose a model to explain carbon dioxide (CO2) emission after tillage as a function of the no-till emission plus a correction due to the tillage disturbance. The model assumes that C in the readily decomposable organic matter follows a first-order reaction kinetics equation as: dC(sail)(t)/dt = -kC(soil)(t) and that soil C-CO2 emission is proportional to the C decay rate in soil, where C-soil(t) is the available labile soil C (g m(-2)) at any time (t). Emissions are modeled in terms soil C available to decomposition in the tilled and non-tilled plots, and a relationship is derived between no-till (F-NT) and tilled (F-Gamma) fluxes, which is: F-T = a1F(NT)e(-a2t), where t is time after tillage. Predicted and observed fluxes showed good agreement based on determination coefficient (R-2), index of agreement and model efficiency, with R-2 as high as 0.97. The two parameters included in the model are related to the difference between the decay constant (k factor) of tilled and no-till plots (a(2)) and also to the amount of labile carbon added to the readily decomposable soil organic matter due to tillage (a,). These two parameters were estimated in the model ranging from 1.27 and 2.60 (a(1)) and - 1.52 x 10(-2) and 2.2 x 10(-2) day(-1) (a(2)). The advantage is that temporal variability of tillage-induced emissions can be described by only one analytical function that includes the no-till emission plus an exponential term modulated by tillage and environmentally dependent parameters. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exigências térmicas e tabelas de vida de fertilidade de Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) em laboratório

Este estudo visou determinar as exigências térmicas do pulgão Myzus persicae (Sulzer), calcular tabelas de vida de fertilidade, e prever a ocorrência de adultos no campo, por meio de modelo de graus-dia. Os pulgões foram mantidos individualmente em gaiolas fixadas em folhas de couve, Brassica oleracea L. var. acephala DC, em laboratório, às temperaturas de 15, 20, 23, 25 e 30ºC. O limite térmico inferior de desenvolvimento (Tb) e a constante térmica (K) foram 2,2ºC e 165,6 graus-dia, respectivamente. O modelo de graus-dia previu a ocorrência de adultos de M. persicae para 0 a1 dia antes da data em que eles foram observados no campo. Os parâmetros das tabelas de vida estimados na escala de tempo em graus-dia evidenciaram que as temperaturas de 23°C e 25°C foram as que proporcionaram as melhores condições térmicas para o crescimento populacional de M. persicae. Nessas temperaturas observou-se o maior valor da capacidade inata de aumentar em número (r m = 0,012), o menor valor da duração média da geração (T = 303,8 graus-dia e 272 graus-dia, respectivamente) e o menor tempo necessário para a população duplicar em número de indivíduos (TD = 57,8 graus-dia).

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

PCJ River Basins' Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of So Paulo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise dos Processos de Flotação e Oxidação Avançada para o Tratamento de Efluente Modelo da Indústria do Petróleo

The generation of wastes in most industrial process is inevitable. In the petroleum industry, one of the greatest problems for the environment is the huge amount of produced water generated in the oil fields. This wastewater is a complex mixture and present great amounts. These effluents can be hazardous to the environmental without adequate treatment. This research is focused in the analysis of the efficiencies of the flotation and photo-oxidation processes to remove and decompose the organic compounds present in the produced water. A series of surfactants derivated from the laurilic alcohol was utilized in the flotation to promote the separation. The experiments have been performed with a synthetic wastewater, carefully prepared with xylene. The experimental data obtained using flotation presented a first order kinetic, identified by the quality of the linear data fitting. The best conditions were found at 0.029 g.L-1 for the surfactant EO 7, 0.05 g.L-1 for EO 8, 0.07 g.L-1 for EO 9, 0.045 g.L-1 for EO 10 and 0.08 g.L-1 for EO 23 with the following estimated kinetic constants: 0.1765, 0.1325, 0.1210, 0.1531 and 0.1699 min-1, respectively. For the series studied, the most suitable surfactant was the EO 7 due to the lower reagent onsumption, higher separation rate constant and higher removal efficiency of xylene in the aqueous phase (98%). Similarly to the flotation, the photo-Fenton process shows to be efficient for degradation of xylene and promoting the mineralization of the organic charge around 90% and 100% in 90 min

Avaliação de catalisadores a base de carbeto e nitreto de molibdênio na obtenção de lactitol via hidrogenação da lactose

Seeking a greater appreciation of cheese whey was developed to process the hydrogenation of lactose for the production of lactitol, a polyol with high added value, using the catalyst Ni / activated carbon (15% and 20% nickel), the nitride Mo2N, the bimetallic carbide Ni-Mo/ activated carbon and carbide Mo2C. After synthesis, the prepared catalysts were analyzed by MEV, XRD, laser granulometry and B.E.T. The reactor used in catalytic hydrogenation of lactose was the type of bed mud with a pressure (68 atm), temperature (120 oC) and stirring speed (500 rpm) remained constant during the experiments. The system operated in batch mode for the solid and liquid and semi-continuous to gas. Besides the nature of the catalyst, we studied the influence of pH of reaction medium for Mo2C carbide as well as evaluating the character of the protein inhibitor and chloride ions on the activity of catalysts Ni (20%)/Activated Carbon and bimetallic carbide Ni-Mo/Activated Carbon. The decrease in protein levels was performed by coagulation with chitosan and adsorption of chloride ions was performed by ion exchange resins. In the process of protein adsorption and chloride ions, the maximum percentage extracted was about 74% and 79% respectively. The micrographs of the powders of Mo2C and Mo2N presented in the form of homogeneous clusters, whereas for the catalysts supported on activated carbon, microporous structure proved impregnated with small particles indicating the presence of metal. The results showed high conversion of lactose to lactitol 90% for the catalyst Ni (20%)/Activated Carbon at pH 6 and 46% for the carbide Mo2C pH 8 (after addition of NH4OH) using the commercial lactose. Monitoring the evolution of the constituents present in the reaction medium was made by liquid chromatography. A kinetic model of heterogeneous Langmuir Hinshelwood type was developed which showed that the estimated constants based catalysts promoted carbide and nitride with a certain speed the adsorption, desorption and production of lactitol

Conversão catalítica de clorometano em hidrocarbonetos

Amorphous silica-alumina and modified by incipient impregnation of iron, nickel, zinc and chromium were synthetized in oxide and metal state and evaluated as catalysts for the chloromethane conversion reaction. With known techniques their textural properties were determined and dynamics techniques in programmed temperature were used to find the acid properties of the materials. A thermodynamic model was used to determine the adsorption and desorption capacity of chloromethane. Two types of reactions were studied. Firstly the chloromethane was catalytically converted to hydrocarbons (T = 300 450 oC e m = 300 mg) in a fixed bed reactor with controlled pressure and flow. Secondly the deactivation of the unmodified support was studied (at 300 °C and m=250 g) in a micro-adsorver provided of gravimetric monitoring. The metal content (2,5%) and the chloromethane percent of the reagent mixture (10% chloromethane in nitrogen) were fixed for all the tests. From the results the chloromethane conversion and selectivity of the gaseous products (H2, CH4, C3 and C4) were determined as well as the energy of desorption (75,2 KJ/mol for Ni/Al2O3-SiO2 to 684 KJ/mol for the Zn/Al2O3-SiO2 catalyst) considering the desorption rate as a temperature function. The presence of a metal on the support showed to have an important significance in the chloromethane condensation. The oxide class catalyst presented a better performance toward the production of hydrocarbons. Especial mention to the ZnO/Al2O3-SiO2 that, in a gas phase basis, produced C3 83 % max. and C4 63% max., respectively, in the temperature of 450 oC and 20 hours on stream. Hydrogen was produced exclusively in the FeO/Al2O3-SiO2 catalysts (15 % max., T = 550 oC and 5,6 h on stream) and Ni/SiO2-Al2O3 (75 % max., T = 400 oC and 21,6 h on stream). All the catalysts produced methane (10 à 92 %), except for Ni/Al2O3-SiO2 and CrO/Al2O3-SiO2. In the deactivation study two models were proposed: The parallel model, where the product production competes with coke formation; and the sequential model, where the coke formation competes with the product desorption dessorption step. With the mass balance equations and the mechanism proposed six parameters were determined. Two kinetic parameters: the hydrocarbon formation constant, 8,46 10-4 min-1, the coke formation, 1,46 10-1 min-1; three thermodynamic constants (the global, 0,003, the chloromethane adsorption 0,417 bar-1, the hydrocarbon adsorption 2,266 bar-1), and the activity exponent of the coke formation (1,516). The model was reasonable well fitted and presented a satisfactory behavior in relation with the proposed mechanism

Application of the Potentiometric Stripping Analysis with Constant Current for the Determination of Lithium Ions Using a Spinel-Type Manganese (IV) Oxide-Modified Carbon Paste Electrode

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)