Bryozoan biodiversity in Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago, Brazil

Among the marine invertebrate groups recorded from oceanic islands, bryozoans stand out because they can live and reproduce in suboptimal habitats, which may enhance their dispersal capabilities. This study aimed to update the checklist of bryozoans known from the Saint Peter and Saint Paul Archipelago (ASPSP) and discusses their distribution. During the five expeditions conducted between 2007 and 2009, 22 species were found, of which 16 were new occurrences for the archipelago. The bryozoans were collected from different biotic (algae and invertebrates) and abiotic (rocks, rubble and wrecks) substrata. The bryozoan community in ASPSP includes: eight new and probably endemic species, five species that belong to widespread species complexes, three species known only from the Brazilian coast, two species reported from the Western Atlantic and one species recorded from oceanic islets in the Atlantic. Additionally, three species are widespread in tropical to subtropical waters. Margaretta buski can be highlighted as the most conspicuous and abundant species between 1045 m deep and acts as an "ecosystem engineer".

Perimedullary arteriovenous fistulas in children: report on six cases

Background Perimedullary arteriovenous fistulas (PMAVFs) are rare spinal lesions and even more uncommon in children. Objective The aim of this study was to document rare occurrences of this type of arteriovenous malformation in six children treated at our institution. Methods The clinical data, radiological findings, and treatment in six cases of PMAVFs were reviewed. Six patients with PMAVFs were managed at our institution over a 5-year period. The patients (four girls and two boys), ranging in age from 6 to 15 years, presented with initially fluctuating, and eventually permanent and progressive, sudden-onset paraparesis, sensory disturbances, and sphincter dysfunction. The duration of symptoms before diagnosis ranged from 1 week to 13 years. Results All the patients underwent magnetic resonance imaging and spinal selective angiography, which demonstrated the characteristic imaging of an arteriovenous fistula. Embolization of the arteriovenous fistula was initially attempted in three patients with successful occlusion of the fistula in two. For the remaining cases, open surgery was performed, with complete occlusion of the fistula. There was no morbidity, regardless of the treatment performed. All the patients experienced neurological improvement after treatment. Conclusions No specific clinical or radiological characteristic of PMAVFs in the pediatric population was observed when our series was compared with a general series. Early diagnosis and timing of the therapeutic intervention seemed to avoid the development of irreversible ischemic myeloradiculopathy and prevented hemorrhage. Treatment for PMAVFs is difficult to standardize because these are extremely rare lesions with different angioarchitecture configurations.

Sudden Cardiac Death in Brazil: Study Based on Physicians' Perceptions of the Public Health Care System

Background: There are no available statistical data about sudden cardiac death in Brazil. Therefore, this study has been conducted to evaluate the incidence of sudden cardiac death in our population and its implications. Methods: The research methodology was based on Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment, whose premise is that the more an A stimulus differs from a B stimulus, the greater will be the number of people who will perceive this difference. This technique allows an estimation of actual occurrences from subjective perceptions, when compared to official statistics. Data were collected through telephone interviews conducted with Primary and Secondary Care physicians of the Public Health Service in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP). Results: In the period from October 19, 2009, to October 28, 2009, 196 interviews were conducted. The incidence of 21,270 cases of sudden cardiac death per year was estimated by linear regression analysis of the physicians responses and data from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, with the following correlation and determination coefficients: r = 0.98 and r2= 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.81.0, P < 0.05). The lack of waiting list for specialized care and socioadministrative problems were considered the main barriers to tertiary care access. Conclusions: The incidence of sudden cardiac death in the MASP is high, and it was estimated as being higher than all other causes of deaths; the extrapolation technique based on the physicians perceptions was validated; and the most important bureaucratic barriers to patient referral to tertiary care have been identified. (PACE 2012; 35:13261331)

AVALIAÇÃO DOS INCÊNDIOS FLORESTAIS OCORRIDOS NO PARQUE NACIONAL DA SERRA DA CANASTRA - MINAS GERAIS

Neste trabalho, objetivou-se estabelecer o perfil dos incêndios florestais ocorridos no Parque Nacional da serra da Canastra, utilizando dados contidos nos Relatórios de Ocorrências de Incêndios de 1988 até 2008, cedidos pela unidade de conservação. Foram registradas 219 ocorrências, totalizando 415572,50 ha de área queimada, com média de 10,43 incêndios e 19789,17 ha queimados por ano. Em relação à área queimada, os incêndios causados por incendiários apresentaram o maior valor, seguido por queimas para limpeza de pastagens, raios e causa desconhecida. Considerando-se número de ocorrências, os incêndios decorrentes de raios apresentaram a maior frequência. Nos meses de setembro e agosto predominaram os incêndios causados por incendiários e de causa desconhecida, enquanto os incêndios naturais ocorreram principalmente nos meses de outubro e fevereiro e os decorrentes da queima para limpeza de pastagens se concentraram em julho. Os incêndios que atingiram maiores áreas foram observados em locais com maior declividade, enquanto os de menores proporções ocorreram em áreas planas e ou de relevos suaves. Quanto à localização, registrou-se o maior número de focos na área regularizada do parque, provavelmente por ser esta área a mais fiscalizada.

U-Pb zircon ages of orthogneisses and supracrustal rocks of the Cariris Velhos belt: Onset of Neoproterozoic rifting in the Borborema Province, NE Brazil

New geochronological and geochemical constraints on Precambrian sedimentary and volcanic successions exposed in the western part of the Central Domain of the Borborema Province, NE Brazil, indicate the presence of two distinct tectono-stratigraphic complexes: Riacho Gravata and Sao Caetano. Both complexes and associated orthogneisses are referred in the literature as the Cariris Velhos belt, having depositional, extrusive, or intrusive ages within the interval 985-913 Ma. The Riacho Gravata complex consists of bimodal (but mostly felsic) volcanic and volcanoclastic rocks, muscovite+/-graphite schists, quartzites, and marble with local occurrences of banded-iron-formation. The Sao Caetano complex mainly consists of metagreywackes, marbles, calc-silicate rocks, and rare meta-mafic rocks. Meta-mafic rocks from both complexes have geochemical signatures similar to those of continental flood basalts, with epsilon Nd (1.0 Ga) values ranging from -1.0 to -2.8. Felsic volcanic rocks from the Riacho Gravata complex show epsilon Nd (1.0 Ga) values ranging from -1.0 to -7.4 and geochemical signatures similar to A(2)-type granitoids. New SHRIMP U-Pb zircon data from felsic volcanic rocks within the Riacho Gravata complex yielded ages of 1091 +/- 13 Ma and 996 +/- 13 Ma. In contrast, meta-graywackes from the Sao Caetano complex show a maximum deposition age of ca. 806 Ma in the northern part and ca. 862 Ma in the southern part of the outcrop area. The orthogneisses show epsilon Nd (1.0 Ga) values ranging from 1.0 to -4.2 with U/Pb TIMS and SHRIMP ages ranging from 960 to 926 Ma and geochemical signatures of A(2)-type granitoids. The data reported in this paper suggest at least two periods of extension within the Central Domain of the Borborema Province, the first starts ca. 1091 Ma with magmatism and deposition, creating the Riacho Gravata basin and continued intrusion of A-type granites to 920 Ma. A second rift event, which reactivated old faults, generated a basin with a maximum deposition age of ca. 806 Ma. Furthermore, the oldest granitoids cutting these metasedimentary rocks have crystallization ages of ca. 600 Ma. This suggests that the second rift event could be early Brasiliano in age. The resulting Sao Caetano basin received detritus from a variety of sources, although detritus from the Riacho Gravata complex dominated. Deposition ages of the Riacho Gravata and the Sao Caetano complexes are coeval with deposits in other basins of the Borborema Province (Riacho do Tigre in the Central Domain; Macurure and Maranco in the Sergipano Belt of the Southern domain). The Macaubas Group from SE Brazil and its counterparts in Africa, the Zadanian and Mayumbian Groups, in the western edge of the Congo Craton are also coeval. Closure of the Riacho Gravata and Sao Caetano basins occurred during the Brasiliano convergence (705-600 Ma). During the last stage of convergence, ca. 612 Ma, pull-apart basins were created and filled; final basin closure took place 605-592 Ma, after deposition ceased. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis of leprosy incidence and associated socioeconomic factors

OBJECTIVE: To identify clusters of the major occurrences of leprosy and their associated socioeconomic and demographic factors. METHODS: Cases of leprosy that occurred between 1998 and 2007 in Sao Jose do Rio Preto (southeastern Brazil) were geocodified and the incidence rates were calculated by census tract. A socioeconomic classification score was obtained using principal component analysis of socioeconomic variables. Thematic maps to visualize the spatial distribution of the incidence of leprosy with respect to socioeconomic levels and demographic density were constructed using geostatistics. RESULTS: While the incidence rate for the entire city was 10.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants annually between 1998 and 2007, the incidence rates of individual census tracts were heterogeneous, with values that ranged from 0 to 26.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Areas with a high leprosy incidence were associated with lower socioeconomic levels. There were identified clusters of leprosy cases, however there was no association between disease incidence and demographic density. There was a disparity between the places where the majority of ill people lived and the location of healthcare services. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis techniques utilized identified the poorer neighborhoods of the city as the areas with the highest risk for the disease. These data show that health departments must prioritize politico-administrative policies to minimize the effects of social inequality and improve the standards of living, hygiene, and education of the population in order to reduce the incidence of leprosy.

Molecular epidemiology of livestock rabies viruses isolated in the northeastern Brazilian states of Paraíba and Pernambuco from 2003 - 2009

Background Limited or no epidemiological information has been reported for rabies viruses (RABVs) isolated from livestock in the northeastern Brazilian states of Paraíba (PB) and Pernambuco (PE). The aim of this study was to clarify the molecular epidemiology of RABVs circulating in livestock, especially cattle, in these areas between 2003 and 2009. Findings Phylogenetic analysis based on 890 nt of the nucleoprotein (N) gene revealed that the 52 livestock-derived RABV isolates characterized here belonged to a single lineage. These isolates clustered with a vampire bat-related RABV lineage previously identified in other states in Brazil; within PB and PE, this lineage was divided between the previously characterized main lineage and a novel sub-lineage. Conclusions The occurrences of livestock rabies in PB and PE originated from vampire bat RABVs, and the causative RABV lineage has been circulating in this area of northeastern Brazil for at least 7 years. This distribution pattern may correlate to that of a vampire bat population isolated by geographic barriers.

Invasion of the dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides (Levander) Langhans 1925 at tropical reservoir and its relation to environmental variables

Dinoflagellates of the genus Ceratium are chiefly marine but there are rare occurrences in freshwater. In this study we analyze the invasion and progressive establishment of Ceratium furcoides, an exotic species, in the Furnas Reservoir. Samples were taken at 36 points in the reservoir, during the months of March, June, September and December, 2007. Measurements of some physical and chemical variables were simultaneously performed at each site. The occurrence of C. furcoides was registered at 20 sites, with densities varying between 0.57 and 28,564,913.0 ind.m-3. Blooms of this species were recorded in points which were classified as mesotrophic, coinciding with the places receiving high amounts of untreated domestic sewage. C. furcoides density was correlated with temperature, nutrients (nitrate and nitrite) and water electric conductivity. The highest density was recorded in June when temperature was low. The presence of Ceratium furcoides in the reservoir apparently has not yet affected the reservoir water quality or other plankton communities. However, if it becomes fully established it could perhaps become a problem in the reservoir or even to spread out to other reservoirs in Rio Grande basin.

The complexity of narrative interferes in the use of conjunctions in children with specific language impairment

PURPOSE: To verify the use of conjunctions in narratives, and to investigate the influence of stimuli's complexity over the type of conjunctions used by children with specific language impairment (SLI) and children with typical language development. METHODS: Participants were 40 children (20 with typical language development and 20 with SLI) with ages between 7 and 10 years, paired by age range. Fifteen stories with increasing of complexity were used to obtain the narratives; stories were classified into mechanical, behavioral and intentional, and each of them was represented by four scenes. Narratives were analyzed according to occurrence and classification of conjunctions. RESULTS: Both groups used more coordinative than subordinate conjunctions, with significant decrease in the use of conjunctions in the discourse of SLI children. The use of conjunctions varied according to the type of narrative: for coordinative conjunctions, both groups differed only between intentional and behavioral narratives, with higher occurrence in behavioral ones; for subordinate conjunctions, typically developing children's performance did not show differences between narratives, while SLI children presented fewer occurrences in intentional narratives, which was different from other narratives. CONCLUSION: Both groups used more coordinative than subordinate conjunctions; however, typically developing children presented more conjunctions than SLI children. The production of children with SLI was influenced by stimulus, since more complex narratives has less use of subordinate conjunctions.

Rapid assessment survey for exotic benthic species in the São Sebastião Channel, Brazil

The study of biological invasions can be roughly divided into three parts: detection, monitoring, mitigation. Here, our objectives were to describe the marine fauna of the area of the port of São Sebastião (on the northern coast of the state of São Paulo, in the São Sebastião Channel, SSC) to detect introduced species. Descriptions of the faunal community of the SSC with respect to native and allochthonous (invasive or potentially so) diversity are lacking for all invertebrate groups. Sampling was carried out by specialists within each taxonomic group, in December 2009, following the protocol of the Rapid Assessment Survey (RAS) in three areas with artificial structures as substrates. A total of 142 species were identified (61 native, 15 introduced, 62 cryptogenic, 4 not classified), of which 17 were Polychaeta (12, 1, 1, 3), 24 Ascidiacea (3, 6, 15, 0), 36 Bryozoa (17, 0, 18, 1), 27 Cmdana (2, 1, 24, 0), 20 Crustacea (11, 4, 5, 0), 2 Entoprocta (native), 16 Mollusca (13, 3, 0, 0). Twelve species are new occurrences for the SSC. Among the introduced taxa, two are new for coastal Brazil. Estimates of introduced taxa are conservative as the results of molecular studies suggest that some species previously considered cryptogenic are indeed introduced. We emphasize that the large number of cryptogenic species illustrates the need for a long-term monitoring program, especially in areas most susceptible to bioinvasion. We conclude that rapid assessment studies, even in relatively well-known regions, can be very useful for the detection of introduced species and we recommend that they be carried out on a larger scale in all ports with heavy ship traffic.

Blinda personers icke-verbala kommunikation : studier om kroppsspråk, icke-verbal samtalsreglering och icke-verbala uttryck

The purpose of this thesis is to deepen the understanding of grown-up blind people’s non-verbal communication, including body expressions and paralinguistic (voice) expressions. More specifically, the thesis includes the following three studies: Blind people’s different forms of body expressions, blind people’s non-verbal conversation regulation and blind people’s experience of their own non-verbal expressions. The focus has been on the blind participants’ competence and on their subjective perspectives. I have also compared congenitally and adventitiously blind in all of the studies. The approach is mainly phenomenological and the qualitative empirical phenomenological psychological method is the primary methodological source of inspiration. Fourteen blind persons (and also some sigthed persons) participated. They have no other obvious disability than the blindness and their ages vary between 18 and 54. Data in the first two studies consisted of video recordings and data in the last study consisted of interviews. The overall results can be summarized in the following three points: 1. There are (almost) only similarities between the congenitally blind and adventitiously blind persons concerning their paralinguistic expressions. 2. There are mainly similarities between the two groups with respect to the occurrences of different body expressive forms. 3. There are also some differences between the groups. For example, the congenitally blind persons seem to have a limited ability to use the body in an abstract and symbolic way and they often mentioned that they have been told that their body expressions deviate from sighted people’s norms. But the persons in both groups also struggle to see themselves as unique persons who express themselves on the basis of their conditions and their previous experiences.

Identification of Drosophila heart-specific Cis-Regulatory Modules under Hox control

Cardiac morphogenesis is a complex process governed by evolutionarily conserved transcription factors and signaling molecules. The Drosophila cardiac tube is linear, made of 52 pairs of cardiomyocytes (CMs), which express specific transcription factor genes that have human homologues implicated in Congenital Heart Diseases (CHDs) (NKX2-5, GATA4 and TBX5). The Drosophila cardiac tube is linear and composed of a rostral portion named aorta and a caudal one called heart, distinguished by morphological and functional differences controlled by Hox genes, key regulators of axial patterning. Overexpression and inactivation of the Hox gene abdominal-A (abd-A), which is expressed exclusively in the heart, revealed that abd-A controls heart identity. The aim of our work is to isolate the heart-specific cisregulatory sequences of abd-A direct target genes, the realizator genes granting heart identity. In each segment of the heart, four pairs of cardiomyocytes (CMs) express tinman (tin), homologous to NKX2-5, and acquire strong contractile and automatic rhythmic activities. By tyramide amplified FISH, we found that seven genes, encoding ion channels, pumps or transporters, are specifically expressed in the Tin-CMs of the heart. We initially used online available tools to identify their heart-specific cisregutatory modules by looking for Conserved Non-coding Sequences containing clusters of binding sites for various cardiac transcription factors, including Hox proteins. Based on these data we generated several reporter gene constructs and transgenic embryos, but none of them showed reporter gene expression in the heart. In order to identify additional abd-A target genes, we performed microarray experiments comparing the transcriptomes of aorta versus heart and identified 144 genes overexpressed in the heart. In order to find the heart-specific cis-regulatory regions of these target genes we developed a new bioinformatic approach where prediction is based on pattern matching and ordered statistics. We first retrieved Conserved Noncoding Sequences from the alignment between the D.melanogaster and D.pseudobscura genomes. We scored for combinations of conserved occurrences of ABD-A, ABD-B, TIN, PNR, dMEF2, MADS box, T-box and E-box sites and we ranked these results based on two independent strategies. On one hand we ranked the putative cis-regulatory sequences according to best scored ABD-A biding sites, on the other hand we scored according to conservation of binding sites. We integrated and ranked again the two lists obtained independently to produce a final rank. We generated nGFP reporter construct flies for in vivo validation. We identified three 1kblong heart-specific enhancers. By in vivo and in vitro experiments we are determining whether they are direct abd-A targets, demonstrating the role of a Hox gene in the realization of heart identity. The identified abd-A direct target genes may be targets also of the NKX2-5, GATA4 and/or TBX5 homologues tin, pannier and Doc genes, respectively. The identification of sequences coregulated by a Hox protein and the homologues of transcription factors causing CHDs, will provide a mean to test whether these factors function as Hox cofactors granting cardiac specificity to Hox proteins, increasing our knowledge on the molecular mechanisms underlying CHDs. Finally, it may be investigated whether these Hox targets are involved in CHDs.

Seizure prediction and control in epilepsy

The first part of my thesis presents an overview of the different approaches used in the past two decades in the attempt to forecast epileptic seizure on the basis of intracranial and scalp EEG. Past research could reveal some value of linear and nonlinear algorithms to detect EEG features changing over different phases of the epileptic cycle. However, their exact value for seizure prediction, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, is still discussed and has to be evaluated. In particular, the monitored EEG features may fluctuate with the vigilance state and lead to false alarms. Recently, such a dependency on vigilance states has been reported for some seizure prediction methods, suggesting a reduced reliability. An additional factor limiting application and validation of most seizure-prediction techniques is their computational load. For the first time, the reliability of permutation entropy [PE] was verified in seizure prediction on scalp EEG data, contemporarily controlling for its dependency on different vigilance states. PE was recently introduced as an extremely fast and robust complexity measure for chaotic time series and thus suitable for online application even in portable systems. The capability of PE to distinguish between preictal and interictal state has been demonstrated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. Correlation analysis was used to assess dependency of PE on vigilance states. Scalp EEG-Data from two right temporal epileptic lobe (RTLE) patients and from one patient with right frontal lobe epilepsy were analysed. The last patient was included only in the correlation analysis, since no datasets including seizures have been available for him. The ROC analysis showed a good separability of interictal and preictal phases for both RTLE patients, suggesting that PE could be sensitive to EEG modifications, not visible on visual inspection, that might occur well in advance respect to the EEG and clinical onset of seizures. However, the simultaneous assessment of the changes in vigilance showed that: a) all seizures occurred in association with the transition of vigilance states; b) PE was sensitive in detecting different vigilance states, independently of seizure occurrences. Due to the limitations of the datasets, these results cannot rule out the capability of PE to detect preictal states. However, the good separability between pre- and interictal phases might depend exclusively on the coincidence of epileptic seizure onset with a transition from a state of low vigilance to a state of increased vigilance. The finding of a dependency of PE on vigilance state is an original finding, not reported in literature, and suggesting the possibility to classify vigilance states by means of PE in an authomatic and objectic way. The second part of my thesis provides the description of a novel behavioral task based on motor imagery skills, firstly introduced (Bruzzo et al. 2007), in order to study mental simulation of biological and non-biological movement in paranoid schizophrenics (PS). Immediately after the presentation of a real movement, participants had to imagine or re-enact the very same movement. By key release and key press respectively, participants had to indicate when they started and ended the mental simulation or the re-enactment, making it feasible to measure the duration of the simulated or re-enacted movements. The proportional error between duration of the re-enacted/simulated movement and the template movement were compared between different conditions, as well as between PS and healthy subjects. Results revealed a double dissociation between the mechanisms of mental simulation involved in biological and non-biologial movement simulation. While for PS were found large errors for simulation of biological movements, while being more acurate than healthy subjects during simulation of non-biological movements. Healthy subjects showed the opposite relationship, making errors during simulation of non-biological movements, but being most accurate during simulation of non-biological movements. However, the good timing precision during re-enactment of the movements in all conditions and in both groups of participants suggests that perception, memory and attention, as well as motor control processes were not affected. Based upon a long history of literature reporting the existence of psychotic episodes in epileptic patients, a longitudinal study, using a slightly modified behavioral paradigm, was carried out with two RTLE patients, one patient with idiopathic generalized epilepsy and one patient with extratemporal lobe epilepsy. Results provide strong evidence for a possibility to predict upcoming seizures in RTLE patients behaviorally. In the last part of the thesis it has been validated a behavioural strategy based on neurobiofeedback training, to voluntarily control seizures and to reduce there frequency. Three epileptic patients were included in this study. The biofeedback was based on monitoring of slow cortical potentials (SCPs) extracted online from scalp EEG. Patients were trained to produce positive shifts of SCPs. After a training phase patients were monitored for 6 months in order to validate the ability of the learned strategy to reduce seizure frequency. Two of the three refractory epileptic patients recruited for this study showed improvements in self-management and reduction of ictal episodes, even six months after the last training session.

Expressiveness of Concurrent Languages

The aim of this thesis is to go through different approaches for proving expressiveness properties in several concurrent languages. We analyse four different calculi exploiting for each one a different technique. We begin with the analysis of a synchronous language, we explore the expressiveness of a fragment of CCS! (a variant of Milner's CCS where replication is considered instead of recursion) w.r.t. the existence of faithful encodings (i.e. encodings that respect the behaviour of the encoded model without introducing unnecessary computations) of models of computability strictly less expressive than Turing Machines. Namely, grammars of types 1,2 and 3 in the Chomsky Hierarchy. We then move to asynchronous languages and we study full abstraction for two Linda-like languages. Linda can be considered as the asynchronous version of CCS plus a shared memory (a multiset of elements) that is used for storing messages. After having defined a denotational semantics based on traces, we obtain fully abstract semantics for both languages by using suitable abstractions in order to identify different traces which do not correspond to different behaviours. Since the ability of one of the two variants considered of recognising multiple occurrences of messages in the store (which accounts for an increase of expressiveness) reflects in a less complex abstraction, we then study other languages where multiplicity plays a fundamental role. We consider the language CHR (Constraint Handling Rules) a language which uses multi-headed (guarded) rules. We prove that multiple heads augment the expressive power of the language. Indeed we show that if we restrict to rules where the head contains at most n atoms we could generate a hierarchy of languages with increasing expressiveness (i.e. the CHR language allowing at most n atoms in the heads is more expressive than the language allowing at most m atoms, with m

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.