A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Reconstruction of a flash flood with large wood transport and its influence on hazard patterns in an ungauged mountain basin

The reconstruction of past flash floods in ungauged basins leads to a high level of uncertainty, which increases if other processes are involved such as the transport of large wood material. An important flash flood occurred in 1997 in Venero Claro (Central Spain), causing significant economic losses. The wood material clogged bridge sections, raising the water level upstream. The aim of this study was to reconstruct this event, analysing the influence of woody debris transport on the flood hazard pattern. Because the reach in question was affected by backwater effects due to bridge clogging, using only high water mark or palaeostage indicators may overestimate discharges, and so other methods are required to estimate peak flows. Therefore, the peak discharge was estimated (123 ± 18 m3 s–1) using indirect methods, but one-dimensional hydraulic simulation was also used to validate these indirect estimates through an iterative process (127 ± 33 m3 s–1) and reconstruct the bridge obstruction to obtain the blockage ratio during the 1997 event (~48%) and the bridge clogging curves. Rainfall–Runoff modelling with stochastic simulation of different rainfall field configurations also helped to confirm that a peak discharge greater than 150 m3 s–1 is very unlikely to occur and that the estimated discharge range is consistent with the estimated rainfall amount (233 ± 27 mm). It was observed that the backwater effect due to the obstruction (water level ~7 m) made the 1997 flood (~35-year return period) equivalent to the 50-year flood. This allowed the equivalent return period to be defined as the recurrence interval of an event of specified magnitude, which, where large woody debris is present, is equivalent in water depth and extent of flooded area to a more extreme event of greater magnitude. These results highlight the need to include obstruction phenomena in flood hazard analysis.

Dose Reduction in Standard Head CT: First Results from a New Scanner Using Iterative Reconstruction and a New Detector Type in Comparison with Two Previous Generations of Multi-slice CT

PURPOSE Computed tomography (CT) accounts for more than half of the total radiation exposure from medical procedures, which makes dose reduction in CT an effective means of reducing radiation exposure. We analysed the dose reduction that can be achieved with a new CT scanner [Somatom Edge (E)] that incorporates new developments in hardware (detector) and software (iterative reconstruction). METHODS We compared weighted volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose length product (DLP) values of 25 consecutive patients studied with non-enhanced standard brain CT with the new scanner and with two previous models each, a 64-slice 64-row multi-detector CT (MDCT) scanner with 64 rows (S64) and a 16-slice 16-row MDCT scanner with 16 rows (S16). We analysed signal-to-noise and contrast-to-noise ratios in images from the three scanners and performed a quality rating by three neuroradiologists to analyse whether dose reduction techniques still yield sufficient diagnostic quality. RESULTS CTDIVol of scanner E was 41.5 and 36.4 % less than the values of scanners S16 and S64, respectively; the DLP values were 40 and 38.3 % less. All differences were statistically significant (p < 0.0001). Signal-to-noise and contrast-to-noise ratios were best in S64; these differences also reached statistical significance. Image analysis, however, showed "non-inferiority" of scanner E regarding image quality. CONCLUSIONS The first experience with the new scanner shows that new dose reduction techniques allow for up to 40 % dose reduction while still maintaining image quality at a diagnostically usable level.

Coronary artery stents: influence of adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction on image quality using 64-HDCT

OBJECTIVE: The assessment of coronary stents with present-generation 64-detector row computed tomography (HDCT) scanners is limited by image noise and blooming artefacts. We evaluated the performance of adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) for noise reduction in coronary stent imaging with HDCT. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 50 stents of 28 patients (mean age 64 ± 10 years) undergoing coronary CT angiography (CCTA) on an HDCT scanner the mean in-stent luminal diameter, stent length, image quality, in-stent contrast attenuation, and image noise were assessed. Studies were reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) and ASIR-FBP composites. ASIR resulted in reduced image noise vs. FBP (P < 0.0001). Two readers graded the CCTA stent image quality on a 4-point Likert scale and determined the proportion of interpretable stent segments. The best image quality for all clinical images was obtained with 40 and 60% ASIR with significantly larger luminal area visualization compared with FBP (+42.1 ± 5.4% with 100% ASIR vs. FBP alone; P < 0.0001) while the stent length was decreased (-4.7 ± 0.9%,

Reconstruction of CCTA from HDCT using 40 and 60% ASIR incrementally improves intra-stent luminal area, diameter visualization, and image quality compared with FBP reconstruction.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Impact of a 4th generation iterative reconstruction technique on image quality in low-dose computed tomography of the chest in immunocompromised patients

PURPOSE To determine the image quality of an iterative reconstruction (IR) technique in low-dose MDCT (LDCT) of the chest of immunocompromised patients in an intraindividual comparison to filtered back projection (FBP) and to evaluate the dose reduction capability. MATERIALS AND METHODS 30 chest LDCT scans were performed in immunocompromised patients (Brilliance iCT; 20-40 mAs; mean CTDIvol: 1.7 mGy). The raw data were reconstructed using FBP and the IR technique (iDose4™, Philips, Best, The Netherlands) set to seven iteration levels. 30 routine-dose MDCT (RDCT) reconstructed with FBP served as controls (mean exposure: 116 mAs; mean CDTIvol: 7.6 mGy). Three blinded radiologists scored subjective image quality and lesion conspicuity. Quantitative parameters including CT attenuation and objective image noise (OIN) were determined. RESULTS In LDCT high iDose4™ levels lead to a significant decrease in OIN (FBP vs. iDose7: subscapular muscle 139.4 vs. 40.6 HU). The high iDose4™ levels provided significant improvements in image quality and artifact and noise reduction compared to LDCT FBP images. The conspicuity of subtle lesions was limited in LDCT FBP images. It significantly improved with high iDose4™ levels (> iDose4). LDCT with iDose4™ level 6 was determined to be of equivalent image quality as RDCT with FBP. CONCLUSION iDose4™ substantially improves image quality and lesion conspicuity and reduces noise in low-dose chest CT. Compared to RDCT, high iDose4™ levels provide equivalent image quality in LDCT, hence suggesting a potential dose reduction of almost 80%.

Frost-Free Record Reconstruction for Eastern Massachusetts, 1733-1980

A reconstruction methodology utilizing such varied documents as diaries, agricultural journals, U.S. Weather Bureau killing frost records and instrumental records is discussed. A resultant 248-year frost record for eastern Massachusetts exhibits marked variations in the length of the growing season, that occur on a time scale of approximately 70 years. There is an apparent systematic long-term relationship between the timing of spring and fall killing frosts and the last 100 years of record reveals a decline in year-to-year variability.

The Use of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century

Ships’ protests have been used for centuries as legal documents to record and detail damages and indemnify Captains from fault. We use them in this article, along with data extracted through forensic synoptic analysis (McNally, 1994, 2004) to identify a tropical or subtropical system in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1785. They are shown to be viable sources of meteorological information. By comparing a damaging storm in New England in 1996, which included an offshore tropical system, with one reconstructed in 1785, we demonstrate that the tropical system identified in a ship’s protest played a significant role in the 1785 storm. With both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal evidence, we are able to assess that these storms are remarkably identical. The recurrence rate calculated in previous studies of the 1996 storm is 400–500 years. We suggest that reconstruction of additional years in the 1700s would provide the basis for a reanalysis of recurrence rates, with implications for future insurance and reinsurance rates. The application of the methodology to this new data source can also be used for extension of the hurricane database in the North Atlantic basin, and elsewhere, much further back into history than is currently available.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

NGRIP CH4 concentration from 120 to 10 kyr before present and its relation to a δ15N temperature reconstruction from the same ice core

During the last glacial cycle, Greenland temperature showed many rapid temperature variations, the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events. The past atmospheric methane concentration closely followed these temperature variations, which implies that the warmings recorded in Greenland were probably hemispheric in extent. Here we substantially extend and complete the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) methane record from the Preboreal Holocene (PB) back to the end of the last interglacial period with a mean time resolution of 54 yr. We relate the amplitudes of the methane increases associated with DO events to the amplitudes of the local Greenland NGRIP temperature increases derived from stable nitrogen isotope (δ15N) measurements, which have been performed along the same ice core (Kindler et al., 2014). We find the ratio to oscillate between 5 parts per billion (ppb) per °C and 18 ppb °C−1 with the approximate frequency of the precessional cycle. A remarkably high ratio of 25.5 ppb °C−1 is reached during the transition from the Younger Dryas (YD) to the PB. Analysis of the timing of the fast methane and temperature increases reveals significant lags of the methane increases relative to NGRIP temperature for DO events 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 19, and 20. These events generally have small methane increase rates and we hypothesize that the lag is caused by pronounced northward displacement of the source regions from stadial to interstadial. We further show that the relative interpolar concentration difference (rIPD) of methane is about 4.5% for the stadials between DO events 18 and 20, which is in the same order as in the stadials before and after DO event 2 around the Last Glacial Maximum. The rIPD of methane remains relatively stable throughout the full last glacial, with a tendency for elevated values during interstadial compared to stadial periods.

Temperature reconstruction from 10 to 120 kyr b2k from the NGRIP ice core

In order to reconstruct the temperature of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) site, new measurements of δ15N have been performed covering the time period from the beginning of the Holocene to Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) event 8. Together with previously measured and mostly published δ15N data, we present for the first time a NGRIP temperature reconstruction for the whole last glacial period from 10 to 120 kyr b2k (thousand years before 2000 AD) including every DO event based on δ15N isotope measurements combined with a firn densification and heat diffusion model. The detected temperature rises at the onset of DO events range from 5 °C (DO 25) up to 16.5 °C (DO 11) with an uncertainty of ±3 °C. To bring measured and modelled data into agreement, we had to reduce the accumulation rate given by the NGRIP ss09sea06bm timescale in some periods by 30 to 35%, especially during the last glacial maximum. A comparison between reconstructed temperature and δ18Oice data confirms that the isotopic composition of the stadial was strongly influenced by seasonality. We evidence an anticorrelation between the variations of the δ18Oice sensitivity to temperature (referred to as α) and obliquity in agreement with a simple Rayleigh distillation model. Finally, we suggest that α might be influenced by the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet volume.