Post-normal science and the art of nature conservation

Nature conservation may be considered a post-normal science in that the loss of biodiversity and increasing environmental degradation require urgent action but are characterised by uncertainty at every level. An ‘extended peer community’ with varying skills, perceptions and values are involved in decision-making and implementation of conservation, and the uncertainty involved limits the effectiveness of practice. In this paper we briefly review the key ecological, philosophical and methodological uncertainties associated with conservation, and then highlight the uncertainties and gaps present within the structure and interactions of the conservation community, and which exist mainly between researchers and practitioners, in the context of nature conservation in the UK. We end by concluding that an openly post-normal science framework for conservation, which acknowledges this uncertainty but strives to minimise it, would be a useful progression for nature conservation, and recommend ways in which knowledge transfer between researchers and practitioners can be improved to support robust decision making and conservation enactment.

Exploring the paradox of competence-creating subsidiaries: balancing bandwidth and dispersion in MNEs

This paper seeks to synthesise the various contributions to the special issue of Long Range Planning on competence-creating subsidiaries (CCS), and identifies avenues for future research. Effective competence-creation through a network of subsidiaries requires an appropriate balance between internal and external embeddedness. There are multiple types of firm-specific advantages (FSAs) essential to achieve this. In addition, wide-bandwidth pathways are needed with collaborators, suppliers, customers as well as internally within the MNE. Paradoxically, there is a natural tendency for bandwidth to shrink as dispersion increases. As distances (technological, organisational, and physical) become greater, there may be decreasing returns to R&D spread. Greater resources for knowledge integration and coordination are needed as intra-MNE and inter-firm R&D cooperation becomes more intensive and extensive. MNEs need to invest in mechanisms to promote wide-bandwidth knowledge flows, without which widely dispersed and networked MNEs can suffer from internal market failures.

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: the role of ensemble dispersion

Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.Useful probabilistic climate forecasts on decadal timescales should be reliable (i.e. forecast probabilities match the observed relative frequencies) but this is seldom examined. This paper assesses a necessary condition for reliability, that the ratio of ensemble spread to forecast error being close to one, for seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature retrospective forecasts from the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys). Factors which may affect reliability are diagnosed by comparing this spread-error ratio for an initial condition ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles for initialized and uninitialized predictions. At lead times less than 2 years, the initialized ensembles tend to be under-dispersed, and hence produce overconfident and hence unreliable forecasts. For longer lead times, all three ensembles are predominantly over-dispersed. Such over-dispersion is primarily related to excessive inter-annual variability in the climate model. These findings highlight the need to carefully evaluate simulated variability in seasonal and decadal prediction systems.

Flow structure and near-field dispersion in arrays of building-like obstacles

Dispersion in the near-field region of localised releases in urban areas is difficult to predict because of the strong influence of individual buildings. Effects include upstream dispersion, trapping of material into building wakes and enhanced concentration fluctuations. As a result, concentration patterns are highly variable in time and mean profiles in the near field are strongly non-Gaussian. These aspects of near-field dispersion are documented by analysing data from direct numerical simulations in arrays of building-like obstacles and are related to the underlying flow structure. The mean flow structure around the buildings is found to exert a strong influence over the dispersion of material in the near field. Diverging streamlines around buildings enhance lateral dispersion. Entrainment of material into building wakes in the very near field gives rise to secondary sources, which then affect the subsequent dispersion pattern. High levels of concentration fluctuations are also found in this very near field; the fluctuation intensity is of order 2 to 5.

Motion of the dayside polar cap boundary during substorm cycles: I. Observations of pulses in the magnetopause reconnection rate

Using data from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter) VHF radar and DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) spacecraft passes, we study the motion of the dayside open-closed field line boundary during two substorm cycles. The satellite data show that the motions of ion and electron temperature boundaries in EISCAT data, as reported by Moen et al. (2004), are not localised around the radar; rather, they reflect motions of the open-closed field line boundary at all MLT throughout the dayside auroral ionosphere. The boundary is shown to erode equatorward when the IMF points southward, consistent with the effect of magnetopause reconnection. During the substorm expansion and recovery phases, the dayside boundary returns poleward, whether the IMF points northward or southward. However, the poleward retreat was much faster during the substorm for which the IMF had returned to northward than for the substorm for which the IMF remained southward – even though the former substorm is much the weaker of the two. These poleward retreats are consistent with the destruction of open flux at the tail current sheet. Application of a new analysis of the peak ion energies at the equatorward edge of the cleft/cusp/mantle dispersion seen by the DMSP satellites identifies the dayside reconnection merging gap to extend in MLT from about 9.5 to 15.5 h for most of the interval. Analysis of the boundary motion, and of the convection velocities seen near the boundary by EISCAT, allows calculation of the reconnection rate (mapped down to the ionosphere) from the flow component normal to the boundary in its own rest frame. This reconnection rate is not, in general, significantly different from zero before 06:45 UT (MLT<9.5 h) – indicating that the X line footprint expands over the EISCAT field-of-view to earlier MLT only occasionally and briefly. Between 06:45 UT and 12:45UT (9.5

Processes controlling atmospheric dispersion through city centres

We develop a process-based model for the dispersion of a passive scalar in the turbulent flow around the buildings of a city centre. The street network model is based on dividing the airspace of the streets and intersections into boxes, within which the turbulence renders the air well mixed. Mean flow advection through the network of street and intersection boxes then mediates further lateral dispersion. At the same time turbulent mixing in the vertical detrains scalar from the streets and intersections into the turbulent boundary layer above the buildings. When the geometry is regular, the street network model has an analytical solution that describes the variation in concentration in a near-field downwind of a single source, where the majority of scalar lies below roof level. The power of the analytical solution is that it demonstrates how the concentration is determined by only three parameters. The plume direction parameter describes the branching of scalar at the street intersections and hence determines the direction of the plume centreline, which may be very different from the above-roof wind direction. The transmission parameter determines the distance travelled before the majority of scalar is detrained into the atmospheric boundary layer above roof level and conventional atmospheric turbulence takes over as the dominant mixing process. Finally, a normalised source strength multiplies this pattern of concentration. This analytical solution converges to a Gaussian plume after a large number of intersections have been traversed, providing theoretical justification for previous studies that have developed empirical fits to Gaussian plume models. The analytical solution is shown to compare well with very high-resolution simulations and with wind tunnel experiments, although re-entrainment of scalar previously detrained into the boundary layer above roofs, which is not accounted for in the analytical solution, is shown to become an important process further downwind from the source.

Coordinated Cluster, ground-based instrumentation and low-altitude satellite observations of transient poleward-moving events in the ionosphere and in the tail lobe

During the interval between 8:00-9:30 on 14 January 2001, the four Cluster spacecraft were moving from the central magnetospheric lobe, through the dusk sector mantle, on their way towards intersecting the magnetopause near 15:00 MLT and 15:00 UT. Throughout this interval, the EIS-CAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) at Longyearbyen observed a series of poleward-moving transient events of enhanced F-region plasma concentration ("polar cap patches"), with a repetition period of the order of 10 min. Allowing for the estimated solar wind propagation delay of 75 ( 5) min, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) had a southward component during most of the interval. The magnetic footprint of the Cluster spacecraft, mapped to the ionosphere using the Tsyganenko T96 model (with input conditions prevailing during this event), was to the east of the ESR beams. Around 09:05 UT, the DMSP-F12 satellite flew over the ESR and showed a sawtooth cusp ion dispersion signature that also extended into the electrons on the equatorward edge of the cusp, revealing a pulsed magnetopause reconnection. The consequent enhanced ionospheric flow events were imaged by the SuperDARN HF backscatter radars. The average convection patterns (derived using the AMIE technique on data from the magnetometers, the EISCAT and SuperDARN radars, and the DMSP satellites) show that the associated poleward-moving events also convected over the predicted footprint of the Cluster spacecraft. Cluster observed enhancements in the fluxes of both electrons and ions. These events were found to be essentially identical at all four spacecraft, indicating that they had a much larger spatial scale than the satellite separation of the order of 600 km. Some of the events show a correspondence between the lowest energy magnetosheath electrons detected by the PEACE instrument on Cluster (10-20 eV) and the topside ionospheric enhancements seen by the ESR (at 400-700 km). We suggest that a potential barrier at the magnetopause, which prevents the lowest energy electrons from entering the magnetosphere, is reduced when and where the boundary-normal magnetic field is enhanced and that the observed polar cap patches are produced by the consequent enhanced precipitation of the lowest energy electrons, making them and the low energy electron precipitation fossil remnants of the magnetopause reconnection rate pulses.

Modelling signatures of pulsed magnetopause reconnection in cusp ion dispersion signatures seen at middle altitudes

It is shown that the open magnetosphere model can reproduce both the down-going and the up-going magnetosheath ions seen in the cusp and mantle regions by the Polar satellite at middle altitudes. ?he pass studied shows a series of discontinuities in the ion dispersion, most of which are shown to arise from pulses of magnetopause reconnection rate. A total of 9 pulses are detected in an interval estimated to be about 30 min long, giving a mean repetition period of about 3 min: they vary in length between 0.5 min and 3.5 min and are separated by periods of much slower reconnection of duration 1-3 min. One step is not as predicted for reconnection rate pulses but is explained in terms of compressive motions caused by a pulse of solar wind dynamic pressure. The reconnection site is found to be 16 +/- 3 R-E from the ionosphere along the separatrix field line, placing it at low latitudes on the dayside magnetopause.

On the longitudinal extent of magnetopause reconnection pulses

The open magnetosphere model of cusp ion injection, acceleration and precipitation is used to predict the dispersion characteristics for fully pulsed magnetic reconnection at a low-latitude magnetopause X-line. The resulting steps, as would be seen by a satellite moving meridionally and normal to the ionospheric projection of the X-line, are compared with those seen by satellites moving longitudinally, along the open/closed boundary. It is shown that two observed cases can be explained by similar magnetosheath and reconnection characteristics, and that the major differences between them are well explained by the different satellite paths through the events. Both cases were observed in association with poleward-moving transient events seen by ground-based radar, as also predicted by the theory. The results show that the reconnection is pulsed but strongly imply it cannot also be spatially patchy, in the sense of isolated X-lines which independently are intermittently active. Furthermore they show that the reconnection pulses responsible for the poleward-moving events and the cusp ion steps, must cover at least 3 h of magnetic local time, although propagation of the active reconnection region may mean that it does not extend this far at any one instant of time.

An analysis of the accuracy of magnetopause reconnection rate variations deduced from cusp ion dispersion characteristics

We present an analysis of the accuracy of the method introduced by Lockwood et al. (1994) for the determination of the magnetopause reconnection rate from the dispersion of precipitating ions in the ionospheric cusp region. Tests are made by applying the method to synthesised data. The simulated cusp ion precipitation data are produced by an analytic model of the evolution of newly-opened field lines, along which magnetosheath ions are firstly injected across the magnetopause and then dispersed as they propagate into the ionosphere. The rate at which these newly opened field lines are generated by reconnection can be varied. The derived reconnection rate estimates are then compared with the input variation to the model and the accuracy of the method assessed. Results are presented for steady-state reconnection, for continuous reconnection showing a sine-wave variation in rate and for reconnection which only occurs in square wave pulses. It is found that the method always yields the total flux reconnected (per unit length of the open-closed field-line boundary) to within an accuracy of better than 5%, but that pulses tend to be smoothed so that the peak reconnection rate within the pulse is underestimated and the pulse length is overestimated. This smoothing is reduced if the separation between energy channels of the instrument is reduced; however this also acts to increase the experimental uncertainty in the estimates, an effect which can be countered by improving the time resolution of the observations. The limited time resolution of the data is shown to set a minimum reconnection rate below which the method gives spurious short-period oscillations about the true value. Various examples of reconnection rate variations derived from cusp observations are discussed in the light of this analysis.

Climate change and infectious disease: time for a new normal?

At present, there is a clarion call for action on climate change across the global health landscape. At the recent WHO-sponsored conference on health and climate (held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Aug 27–29, 2014) and the UN Climate Summit (New York, USA, on Sept 23, 2014), participants were encouraged to act decisively to change the current trajectory of climate disruption. Health inequalities, including those related to infectious diseases, have now been pushed to centre stage. This approach represents a step-change in thinking. But as we are urged toward collective action, is it time to rethink our approach to research, especially in relation to climate change and infectious disease?

Assessing the accuracy and dispersion of real estate investment forecasts

Existing empirical evidence has frequently observed that professional forecasters are conservative and display herding behaviour. Whilst a large number of papers have considered equities as well as macroeconomic series, few have considered the accuracy of forecasts in alternative asset classes such as real estate. We consider the accuracy of forecasts for the UK commercial real estate market over the period 1999-2011. The results illustrate that forecasters display a tendency to under-estimate growth rates during strong market conditions and over-estimate when the market is performing poorly. This conservatism not only results in smoothed estimates but also implies that forecasters display herding behaviour. There is also a marked difference in the relative accuracy of capital and total returns versus rental figures. Whilst rental growth forecasts are relatively accurate, considerable inaccuracy is observed with respect to capital value and total returns.