Hydrocarbon field size distributions: a case study in mixed integer nonlinear programming

Of key importance to oil and gas companies is the size distribution of fields in the areas that they are drilling. Recent arguments suggest that there are many more fields yet to be discovered in mature provinces than had previously been thought because the underlying distribution is monotonic not peaked. According to this view the peaked nature of the distribution for discovered fields reflects not the underlying distribution but the effect of economic truncation. This paper contributes to the discussion by analysing up-to-date exploration and discovery data for two mature provinces using the discovery-process model, based on sampling without replacement and implicitly including economic truncation effects. The maximum likelihood estimation involved generates a high-dimensional mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. A highly efficient solution strategy is tested, exploiting the separable structure and handling the integer constraints by treating the problem as a masked allocation problem in dynamic programming.

Dynamic fluid–structure interaction using finite volume unstructured mesh procedures

A three-dimensional finite volume, unstructured mesh (FV-UM) method for dynamic fluid–structure interaction (DFSI) is described. Fluid structure interaction, as applied to flexible structures, has wide application in diverse areas such as flutter in aircraft, wind response of buildings, flows in elastic pipes and blood vessels. It involves the coupling of fluid flow and structural mechanics, two fields that are conventionally modelled using two dissimilar methods, thus a single comprehensive computational model of both phenomena is a considerable challenge. Until recently work in this area focused on one phenomenon and represented the behaviour of the other more simply. More recently, strategies for solving the full coupling between the fluid and solid mechanics behaviour have been developed. A key contribution has been made by Farhat et al. [Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fluids 21 (1995) 807] employing FV-UM methods for solving the Euler flow equations and a conventional finite element method for the elastic solid mechanics and the spring based mesh procedure of Batina [AIAA paper 0115, 1989] for mesh movement. In this paper, we describe an approach which broadly exploits the three field strategy described by Farhat for fluid flow, structural dynamics and mesh movement but, in the context of DFSI, contains a number of novel features: • a single mesh covering the entire domain, • a Navier–Stokes flow, • a single FV-UM discretisation approach for both the flow and solid mechanics procedures, • an implicit predictor–corrector version of the Newmark algorithm, • a single code embedding the whole strategy.

Details of an integrated approach to three-dimensional dynamic fluid structure interaction

Fluid structure interaction, as applied to flexible structures, has wide application in diverse areas such as flutter in aircraft, wind response of buildings, flows in elastic pipes and blood vessels. Numerical modelling of dynamic fluid-structure interaction (DFSI) involves the coupling of fluid flow and structural mechanics, two fields that are conventionally modelled using two dissimilar methods, thus a single comprehensive computational model of both phenomena is a considerable challenge and until recently work in this area focused on one phenomenon and represented the behaviour of the other more simply. A single, finite volume unstructured mesh (FV-UM) spatial discretisation method has been employed on a single mesh for the entire domain. The Navier Stokes equations for fluid flow are solved using a SIMPLE type procedure and the Newmark b algorithm is employed for solving the dynamic equilibrium equations for linear elastic solid mechanics and mesh movement is achieved using a spring based mesh procedure for dynamic mesh movement. In the paper we describe a number of additional computation issues for the efficient and accurate modelling of three-dimensional, dynamic fluid-structure interaction problems.

Dynamic fluid-structure interactions using finite volume unstructured mesh procedures

A three-dimensional finite volume, unstructured mesh (FV-UM) method for dynamic fluid–structure interaction (DFSI) is described. Fluid structure interaction, as applied to flexible structures, has wide application in diverse areas such as flutter in aircraft, wind response of buildings, flows in elastic pipes and blood vessels. It involves the coupling of fluid flow and structural mechanics, two fields that are conventionally modelled using two dissimilar methods, thus a single comprehensive computational model of both phenomena is a considerable challenge. Until recently work in this area focused on one phenomenon and represented the behaviour of the other more simply. More recently, strategies for solving the full coupling between the fluid and solid mechanics behaviour have been developed. A key contribution has been made by Farhat et al. [Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fluids 21 (1995) 807] employing FV-UM methods for solving the Euler flow equations and a conventional finite element method for the elastic solid mechanics and the spring based mesh procedure of Batina [AIAA paper 0115, 1989] for mesh movement. In this paper, we describe an approach which broadly exploits the three field strategy described by Farhat for fluid flow, structural dynamics and mesh movement but, in the context of DFSI, contains a number of novel features: a single mesh covering the entire domain, a Navier–Stokes flow, a single FV-UM discretisation approach for both the flow and solid mechanics procedures, an implicit predictor–corrector version of the Newmark algorithm, a single code embedding the whole strategy.

Dynamic solid mechanics using finite volume methods

A procedure for evaluating the dynamic structural response of elastic solid domains is presented. A prerequisite for the analysis of dynamic fluid–structure interaction is the use of a consistent set of finite volume (FV) methods on a single unstructured mesh. This paper describes a three-dimensional (3D) FV, vertex-based method for dynamic solid mechanics. A novel Newmark predictor–corrector implicit scheme was developed to provide time accurate solutions and the scheme was evaluated on a 3D cantilever problem. By employing a small amount of viscous damping, very accurate predictions of the fundamental natural frequency were obtained with respect to both the amplitude and period of oscillation. This scheme has been implemented into the multi-physics modelling software framework, PHYSICA, for later application to full dynamic fluid structure interaction.

Nonlinear MHD stability of aluminium reduction cells

An industrial electrolysis cell used to produce primary aluminium is sensitive to waves at the interface of liquid aluminium and electrolyte. The interface waves are similar to stratified sea layers [1], but the penetrating electric current and the associated magnetic field are intricately involved in the oscillation process, and the observed wave frequencies are shifted from the purely hydrodynamic ones [2]. The interface stability problem is of great practical importance because the electrolytic aluminium production is a major electrical energy consumer, and it is related to environmental pollution rate. The stability analysis was started in [3] and a short summary of the main developments is given in [2]. Important aspects of the multiple mode interaction have been introduced in [4], and a widely used linear friction law first applied in [5]. In [6] a systematic perturbation expansion is developed for the fluid dynamics and electric current problems permitting reduction of the three-dimensional problem to a two dimensional one. The procedure is more generally known as “shallow water approximation” which can be extended for the case of weakly non-linear and dispersive waves. The Boussinesq formulation permits to generalise the problem for non-unidirectionally propagating waves accounting for side walls and for a two fluid layer interface [1]. Attempts to extend the electrolytic cell wave modelling to the weakly nonlinear case have started in [7] where the basic equations are derived, including the nonlinearity and linear dispersion terms. An alternative approach for the nonlinear numerical simulation for an electrolysis cell wave evolution is attempted in [8 and references there], yet, omitting the dispersion terms and without a proper account for the dissipation, the model can predict unstable waves growth only. The present paper contains a generalisation of the previous non linear wave equations [7] by accounting for the turbulent horizontal circulation flows in the two fluid layers. The inclusion of the turbulence model is essential in order to explain the small amplitude self-sustained oscillations of the liquid metal surface observed in real cells, known as “MHD noise”. The fluid dynamic model is coupled to the extended electromagnetic simulation including not only the fluid layers, but the whole bus bar circuit and the ferromagnetic effects [9].

DISCOVERY 2010: Spatial and temporal variability in a dynamic polar ecosystem

The Scotia Sea has been a focus of biological- and physical oceanographic study since the Discovery expeditions in the early 1900s. It is a physically energetic region with some of the highest levels of productivity in the Southern Ocean. It is also a region within which there have been greater than average levels of change in upper water column temperature. We describe the results of three cruises transecting the central Scotia Sea from south to north in consecutive years and covering spring, summer and autumn periods. We also report on some community level syntheses using both current-day and historical data from this region. A wide range of parameters were measured during the field campaigns, covering the physical oceanography of the region, air–sea CO2 fluxes, macro- and micronutrient concentrations, the composition and biomass of the nano-, micro- and mesoplankton communities, and the distribution and biomass of Antarctic krill and mesopelagic fish. Process studies examined the effect of iron-stress on the physiology of primary producers, reproduction and egestion in Antarctic krill and the transfer of stable isotopes between trophic layers, from primary consumers up to birds and seals. Community level syntheses included an examination of the biomass-spectra, food-web modelling, spatial analysis of multiple trophic layers and historical species distributions. The spatial analyses in particular identified two distinct community types: a northern warmer water community and a southern cold community, their boundary being broadly consistent with the position of the Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). Temperature and ice cover appeared to be the dominant, over-riding factors in driving this pattern. Extensive phytoplankton blooms were a major feature of the surveys, and were persistent in areas such as South Georgia. In situ and bioassay measurements emphasised the important role of iron inputs as facilitators of these blooms. Based on seasonal DIC deficits, the South Georgia bloom was found to contain the strongest seasonal carbon uptake in the ice-free zone of the Southern Ocean. The surveys also encountered low-production, iron-limited regions, a situation more typical of the wider Southern Ocean. The response of primary and secondary consumers to spatial and temporal heterogeneity in production was complex. Many of the life-cycles of small pelagic organisms showed a close coupling to the seasonal cycle of food availability. For instance, Antarctic krill showed a dependence on early, non-ice-associated blooms to facilitate early reproduction. Strategies to buffer against environmental variability were also examined, such as the prevalence of multiyear life-cycles and variability in energy storage levels. Such traits were seen to influence the way in which Scotia Sea communities were structured, with biomass levels in the larger size classes being higher than in other ocean regions. Seasonal development also altered trophic function, with the trophic level of higher predators increasing through the course of the year as additional predator-prey interactions emerged in the lower trophic levels. Finally, our studies re-emphasised the role that the simple phytoplankton-krill-higher predator food chain plays in this Southern Ocean region, particularly south of the SACCF. To the north, alternative food chains, such as those involving copepods, macrozooplankton and mesopelagic fish, were increasingly important. Continued ocean warming in this region is likely to increase the prevalence of such alternative such food chains with Antarctic krill predicted to move southwards.

Dynamic analysis of employment trajectories through the concept of fl exicurity

The paper presents a dynamic study of the Spanish labour market which tries to determine if it matches the characteristics of transitional labour markets from a fl exicurity approach. Employment trajectories of Spanish workers during the years 2007-2010 are studied using the Continuous Sample of Working Lives. This period covers the end of the expansion of the Spanish economy and the beginning of the current employment crisis. From the combination of the chosen topic, the approach, and the database used, this is a novel perspective in our country. The article shows evidence of the evolution of the employment and unemployment spells, the Spanish labour market turnover degree, and the diffi culties of some groups for carrying out transition between employment and unemployment. The results obtained show a labour market in which a) transitions have come to a halt, and b) there is high job insecurity.

Quasi-isochoric ion beam heating using dynamic confinement in spherical geometry for X-ray scattering experiments in WDM regime

Extreme states of matter such as Warm Dense Matter “WDM” and Dense Strongly Coupled Plasmas “DSCP” play a key role in many high energy density experiments, however creating WDM and DSCP in a manner that can be quantified is not readily feasible. In this paper, isochoric heating of matter by intense heavy ion beams in spherical symmetry is investigated for WDM and DSCP research: The heating times are long (100 ns), the samples are macroscopically large (mm-size) and the symmetry is advantageous for diagnostic purposes. A dynamic confinement scheme in spherical symmetry is proposed which allows even ion beam heating times that are long on the hydrodynamic time scale of the target response. A particular selection of low Z-target tamper and x-ray probe radiation parameters allows to identify the x-ray scattering from the target material and use it for independent charge state measurements Z* of the material under study.

Choice and use of standards for dynamic headspace trapping and application to the analysis of the volatiles of baked potato

When attempting to quantify the volatile components of a food isolated by dynamic headspace trapping onto an adsorbent, the analyst has to select the most appropriate compounds to use as standards and at which stage of the analysis to add them. Factors to be borne in mind include the volatility of the standard, the response of the GC detector, and whether to add the standard to the sample or to the adsorbent trap. This chapter considers the issues and describes the application of one chosen method to the quantitation of the volatile components of baked potato.

Judging the ‘passability’ of dynamic gaps in a virtual rugby environment

Affordances have recently been proposed as a guiding principle in perception–action research in sport (Fajen, Riley, & Turvey, 2009). In the present study, perception of the ’passability’ affordance of a gap between two approaching defenders in rugby is explored. A simplified rugby gap closure scenario was created using immersive, interactive virtual reality technology where 14 novice participants (attacker) judged the passability of the gap between two virtual defenders via a perceptual judgment (button press) task. The scenario was modeled according to tau theory (Lee, 1976) and a psychophysical function was fitted to the response data. Results revealed that a tau-based informational quantity could account for 82% of the variance in the data. Findings suggest that the passability affordance in this case, is defined by this variable and participants were able to use it in order to inform prospective judgments as to passability. These findings contribute to our understanding of affordances and how they may be defined in this particular sporting scenario; however, some limitations regarding methodology, such as decoupling perception and action are also acknowledged.

Dynamical instability in surface permeability characteristics of building sandstones in response to salt accumulation over time

This paper explores how the surface permeability of sandstone blocks changes over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles. Surface permeability controls the amount of moisture and dissolved salt that can penetrate in and facilitate decay. Connected pores permit the movement of moisture (and hence soluble salts) into the stone interior, and where areas are more or less permeable soluble salts may migrate along preferred pathways at differential rates. Previous research has shown that salts can accumulate in the near-surface zone and lead to partial pore blocking which influences subsequent moisture ingress and causes rapid salt accumulation in the near-surface zone.

Two parallel salt weathering simulations were carried out on blocks of Peakmoor Sandstone of different volumes. Blocks were removed from simulations after 2, 5, 10, 20 and 60 cycles. Permeability measurements were taken for these blocks at a resolution of 20 mm, providing a grid of 100 permeability values for each surface. The geostatistical technique of ordinary kriging was applied to the data to produce a smoothed interpolation of permeability for these surfaces, and hence improve understanding of the evolution of permeability over time in response to repeated salt weathering cycles.

Results illustrate the different responses of the sandstone blocks of different volumes to repeated salt weathering cycles. In both cases, after an initial subtle decline in the permeability (reflecting pore blocking), the permeability starts to increase — reflected in a rise in mean, maximum and minimum values. However, between 10 and 20 cycles, there is a jump in the mean and range permeability of the group A block surfaces coinciding with the onset of meaningful debris release. After 60 cycles, the range of permeability in the group A block surface had increased markedly, suggesting the development of a secondary permeability. The concept of dynamic instability and divergent behaviour is applied at the scale of a single block surface, with initial small-scale differences across a surface having larger scale consequences as weathering progresses.

After cycle 10, group B blocks show a much smaller increase in mean permeability, and the range stays relatively steady — this may be explained by the capillary conditions set up by the smaller volume of the stone, allowing salts to migrate to the ‘back’ of the blocks and effectively relieving stress at the ‘front’ face.

Modelling the mechanical response of the reed-mouthpiece-lip system of a clarinet. Part II: A lumped model approximation

A non-linear lumped model of the reed-mouthpiece-lip system of a clarinet is formulated, in which the lumped parameters are derived from numerical experiments with a finite-difference simulation based on a distributed reed model. The effective stiffness per unit area is formulated as a function of the pressure signal driving the reed, in order to simulate the effects of the reed bending against the lay, and mass and damping terms are added as a first approximation to the dynamic behaviour of the reed. A discrete-time formulation is presented, and its response is compared to that of the distributed model. In addition, the lumped model is applied in the simulation of clarinet tones, enabling the analysis of the effects of using a pressure-dependent stiffness per unit area on sustained oscillations. The analysed effects and features are in qualitative agreement with players' experiences and experimental results obtained in prior studies.

Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured.

Nanoscale Origins of Nonlinear Behavior in Ferroic Thin Films

The nonlinear response of a ferroic to an applied field has been studied through the phenomenological Rayleigh Law for over a hundred years. Yet, despite this, the fundamental physical mechanisms at the nanoscale that lead to macroscopic Rayleigh behavior have remained largely elusive, and experimental evidence at small length scales is limited. Here, it is shown using a combination of scanning probe techniques and phase field modeling, that nanoscale piezoelectric response in prototypical Pb(Zr,Ti)O3 films appears to follow a distinctly non-Rayleigh regime. Through statistical analysis, it is found that an averaging of local responses can lead directly to Rayleigh-like behavior of the strain on a macroscale. Phase-field modeling confirms the twist of the ferroelastic interface is key in enhancing piezoelectric response. The studies shed light on the nanoscale origins of nonlinear behavior in disordered ferroics.