Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.

Determinants of left ventricular mass as measured by Doppler echocardiography in pre-adolescents

This study examined factors contributing to the differences in left ventricular mass as measured by Doppler echocardiography in children. Fourteen boys (10.3 ± 0.3 years of age) and 1 1 girls (10.5 ± 0.4 years of age) participated in the study. Height and weight were measured, and relative body fat was determined from the measurement of skinfold thickness according to Slaughter et al. (1988). Lean Body Mass was then calculated by subtracting the fat mass from the total body mass. Sexual maturation was self-assessed using the stages of sexual maturation by Tanner (1962). Both pubic hair development and genital (penis or breast for boys and girls respectively) development were used to determine sexual maturation. Carotid Pulse pressure was assessed by applanation tomometry in the left carotid artery. Cardiac mass was measured by Doppler Echocardiography. Images of cardiac structures were taken using B-Mode and were then translated to M- Mode. The dimensions at the end diastole were obtained at the onset of the QRS complex of the electrocardiogram in a plane through a standard position. Measurements included: (a) the diameter of the left ventricle at the end diastole was measured from the septum edge to the endocardium mean border, (b) the posterior wall was measured as the distance from to anterior wall to the epicardium surface, and (c) the interventricular septum was quantified as the distance from the surface of the left ventricle border to the right ventricle septum surface. Systolic time measurements were taken at the peak of the T-wave of the electrocardiogram. Each measurement was taken three to five times before averaging. Average values were used to calculate cardiac mass using the following equation (Deveraux et al. 1986). Weekly physical activity metabolic equivalent was calculated using a standardize activity questionnaire (Godin and Shepard, 1985) and peakV02 was measured on a cycloergometer. There were no significant differences in cardiovascular mesurements between boys and girls. Left ventricular mass was correlated (p<0.05) with size, maturation, peakV02 and physical activity metabolic equivalent. In boys, lean body mass alone explained 36% of the variance in left ventricular mass while weight was the single strongest predictor of left ventricular mass (R =0.80) in girls. Lean body mass, genital developemnt and physical activity metabolic equivalent together explained 46% and 81% in boys and girls, respectively. However, the combination of lean body mass, genital development and peakV02 (ml kgLBM^ min"') explained up to 84% of the variance in left ventricular mass in girls, but added nothing in boys. It is concluded that left ventricular mass was not statistically different between pre-adolescent boys and girls suggesting that hormonal, and therefore, body size changes in adolescence have a main effect on cardiac development and its final outcome. Although body size parameters were the strongest correlates of left ventricular mass in this pre-adolescent group of children, to our knowledge, this is the first study to report that sexual maturation, as well as physical activity and fitness, are also strong associated with left ventricular mass in pre-adolescents, especially young females. Arterial variables, such as systolic blood pressure and carotid pulse pressure, are not strong determinants of left ventricular mass in this pre-adolescent group. In general, these data suggest that although there is no gender differences in the absolute values of left ventricular mass, as children grow, the factors that determine cardiac mass differ between the genders, even in the same pre-adolescent age.

Confocal and two-photon microscopy : image enhancement /

Confocal and two-photon microcopy have become essential tools in biological research and today many investigations are not possible without their help. The valuable advantage that these two techniques offer is the ability of optical sectioning. Optical sectioning makes it possible to obtain 3D visuahzation of the structiu-es, and hence, valuable information of the structural relationships, the geometrical, and the morphological aspects of the specimen. The achievable lateral and axial resolutions by confocal and two-photon microscopy, similar to other optical imaging systems, are both defined by the diffraction theorem. Any aberration and imperfection present during the imaging results in broadening of the calculated theoretical resolution, blurring, geometrical distortions in the acquired images that interfere with the analysis of the structures, and lower the collected fluorescence from the specimen. The aberrations may have different causes and they can be classified by their sources such as specimen-induced aberrations, optics-induced aberrations, illumination aberrations, and misalignment aberrations. This thesis presents an investigation and study of image enhancement. The goal of this thesis was approached in two different directions. Initially, we investigated the sources of the imperfections. We propose methods to eliminate or minimize aberrations introduced during the image acquisition by optimizing the acquisition conditions. The impact on the resolution as a result of using a coverslip the thickness of which is mismatched with the one that the objective lens is designed for was shown and a novel technique was introduced in order to define the proper value on the correction collar of the lens. The amoimt of spherical aberration with regard to t he numerical aperture of the objective lens was investigated and it was shown that, based on the purpose of our imaging tasks, different numerical apertures must be used. The deformed beam cross section of the single-photon excitation source was corrected and the enhancement of the resolution and image quaUty was shown. Furthermore, the dependency of the scattered light on the excitation wavelength was shown empirically. In the second part, we continued the study of the image enhancement process by deconvolution techniques. Although deconvolution algorithms are used widely to improve the quality of the images, how well a deconvolution algorithm responds highly depends on the point spread function (PSF) of the imaging system applied to the algorithm and the level of its accuracy. We investigated approaches that can be done in order to obtain more precise PSF. Novel methods to improve the pattern of the PSF and reduce the noise are proposed. Furthermore, multiple soiu'ces to extract the PSFs of the imaging system are introduced and the empirical deconvolution results by using each of these PSFs are compared together. The results confirm that a greater improvement attained by applying the in situ PSF during the deconvolution process.

Factors affecting treatment decision making for women with breast cancer

This study examined the factors affecting treatment decision making for young women with early stage breast cancer. Thirty women, aged 35 to 52 years, were presented information about two equally effective chemotherapy treatments following surgery for breast cancer using an educational instrument called a "decision board." Although equally effective, the treatments differ with regards to side effects and treatment schedule. The purpose of this research was to investigate what factors affect the decision-making process. Following administration of the decision board, women were given a take-home version to review and asked to return one to two weeks later with a decision, at which time they completed a questionnaire. theoretical framework for this study was constructed from the literature on self-directed learning and critical thinking. The Overall, the factors rated most important to the treatment decision were related to quality of life, side effects, and length of treatment. Five factors were found to be rated significantly different by the women who chose one treatment versus the other in terms of importance to their decision. These were side effects in general, vomiting, hair loss, family role, and the number of trips to the cancer centre required for treatment.Implications and recommendations for patient education, research, and practice evolved from the findings of this study.

The finite bandwidth model for spin fluctuations in Pd

The frequency dependence of the electron-spin fluctuation spectrum, P(Q), is calculated in the finite bandwidth model. We find that for Pd, which has a nearly full d-band, the magnitude, the range, and the peak frequency of P(Q) are greatly reduced from those in the standard spin fluctuation theory. The electron self-energy due to spin fluctuations is calculated within the finite bandwidth model. Vertex corrections are examined, and we find that Migdal's theorem is valid for spin fluctuations in the nearly full band. The conductance of a normal metal-insulator-normal metal tunnel junction is examined when spin fluctuations are present in one electrode. We find that for the nearly full band, the momentum independent self-energy due to spin fluctuations enters the expression for the tunneling conductance with approximately the same weight as the self-energy due to phonons. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance is slight within the finite bandwidth model for Pd. The effect of spin fluctuations on the tunneling conductance of a metal with a less full d-band than Pd may be more pronounced. However, in this case the tunneling conductance is not simply proportional to the self-energy.

Miniature Portrait of Captain John Brock

A miniature portrait of Captain John Brock, 81st Regiment of Foot. There is an inscription on parchment attached to the reverse which reads "Major Gen. Sir Isaac Brock Lieut. Govenor of Upper Canada Fell at Queenston Heights on 13th Oct 1812" "The Hero of Canada". Above this inscription is a picture of an Indian on a battlement, holding what appears to be a tomahawk. Directly below this picture is a banner with the word "Canada" on it. The entire inscription is surrounded by a braided lock of hair which is enclosed in the case. This inscription contains a number of historical inaccuracies. The portrait also shows the buttons of the 81st Regiment. Sir Isaac Brock belonged to the 49th Regiment of Foot. It has thus been determined that the portrait is not of Isaac Brock but of his brother John.

Merritton Municipal Records collection

In 1874, Merritton, Ont. was incorporated a village with W.W. Waite as the first reeve. On July 1, 1918, the village was incorporated a town. The first mayor was Thomas F. Hastings. In 1961, Merritton, Grantham and Port Dalhousie amalgamated with St. Catharines, despite the opposition of the town councils and citizens.

Square Root Finding In Graphs

Abstract: Root and root finding are concepts familiar to most branches of mathematics. In graph theory, H is a square root of G and G is the square of H if two vertices x,y have an edge in G if and only if x,y are of distance at most two in H. Graph square is a basic operation with a number of results about its properties in the literature. We study the characterization and recognition problems of graph powers. There are algorithmic and computational approaches to answer the decision problem of whether a given graph is a certain power of any graph. There are polynomial time algorithms to solve this problem for square of graphs with girth at least six while the NP-completeness is proven for square of graphs with girth at most four. The girth-parameterized problem of root fining has been open in the case of square of graphs with girth five. We settle the conjecture that recognition of square of graphs with girth 5 is NP-complete. This result is providing the complete dichotomy theorem for square root finding problem.

The analysis of Metarhizium robertsii potential as endophytic plant root coloniser, plant growth enhancer and antagonist to bean root pathogen Fusarium solani f. sp. phaseolis.

The soil-inhabiting insect-pathogenic fungus Metarhizium robertsii also colonizes plant roots endophytically, thus showing potential as a plant symbiont. M robertsii is not randomly distributed in soils but preferentially associates with the plant rhizosphere when applied in agricultural settings. Root surface and endophytic colonization of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) and haricot beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) by M robertsii were examined after inoculation with fungal conidia. Light and confocal microscopies were used to ascertain this rhizosphere association. Root lengths, root hair density and emergence of lateral roots were also measured. Initially, M robertsii conidia adhered to, germinated on, and colonized, roots. Furthermore, plant roots treated with Metarhizium grew faster and the density of plant root hairs increased when compared with control plants. The onset of plant root hair proliferation was initiated before germination of M robertsii on the root (within 1-2 days). Plants inoculated with M robertsii AMAD2 (plant adhesin gene) took significantly longer to show root hair proliferation than the wild type. Cell free extracts of M robertsii did not stimulate root hair proliferation. Longer term (60 days) associations showed that M robertsii endophytically colonized individual cortical cells within bean roots. Metarhizium appeared as an amorphous mycelial aggregate within root cortical cells as well as between the intercellular spaces with no apparent damage to the plant. These results suggested that not only is M robertsii rhizosphere competent but displays a beneficial endophytic association with plant roots that results in the proliferation of root hairs. The biocontrol of bean (Phaseolis vulgaris) root rot fungus Fusarium solani f. sp. phaseolis by Metarhizium robertsii was investigated in vitro and in vivo. Dual cultures on Petri dishes showed antagonism of M robertsii against F. solani. A relative inhibition of ca. 60% of F. solani growth was observed in these assays. Cell free culture filtrates of M robertsii inhibited the germination of F. solani conidia by 83% and the inhibitory metabolite was heat stable. Beans plants colonized by M robertsii then exposed to F. solani showed healthier plant profiles and lower disease indices compared to plants not colonized by M robertsii. These results suggested that the insect pathogenic/endophytic fungus M robertsii could also be utilized as a biocontrol agent against certain plant pathogens occurring in the rhizosphere.

Edge-choosability of Planar Graphs

According to the List Colouring Conjecture, if G is a multigraph then χ' (G)=χl' (G) . In this thesis, we discuss a relaxed version of this conjecture that every simple graph G is edge-(∆ + 1)-choosable as by Vizing’s Theorem ∆(G) ≤χ' (G)≤∆(G) + 1. We prove that if G is a planar graph without 7-cycles with ∆(G)≠5,6 , or without adjacent 4-cycles with ∆(G)≠5, or with no 3-cycles adjacent to 5-cycles, then G is edge-(∆ + 1)-choosable.

Permit to Leave Canada, Simon E. Hansler - September 14, 1918

A permit to leave Canada requested by Simon E. Hansler September 14, 1918. The request states that he is permitted to leave Canada on or before December 1, 1918. The document includes his date of birth, eye colour, hair colour, height, occupation and a photograph. Also included on the form, four names to refer for identification. The document states that he is planning to visit relatives in the United States for "a few days".

L-Fuzzy Relations in Coq

Heyting categories, a variant of Dedekind categories, and Arrow categories provide a convenient framework for expressing and reasoning about fuzzy relations and programs based on those methods. In this thesis we present an implementation of Heyting and arrow categories suitable for reasoning and program execution using Coq, an interactive theorem prover based on Higher-Order Logic (HOL) with dependent types. This implementation can be used to specify and develop correct software based on L-fuzzy relations such as fuzzy controllers. We give an overview of lattices, L-fuzzy relations, category theory and dependent type theory before describing our implementation. In addition, we provide examples of program executions based on our framework.

Prime Rational Functions and Integral Polynomials

Let f(x) be a complex rational function. In this work, we study conditions under which f(x) cannot be written as the composition of two rational functions which are not units under the operation of function composition. In this case, we say that f(x) is prime. We give sufficient conditions for complex rational functions to be prime in terms of their degrees and their critical values, and we derive some conditions for the case of complex polynomials. We consider also the divisibility of integral polynomials, and we present a generalization of a theorem of Nieto. We show that if f(x) and g(x) are integral polynomials such that the content of g divides the content of f and g(n) divides f(n) for an integer n whose absolute value is larger than a certain bound, then g(x) divides f(x) in Z[x]. In addition, given an integral polynomial f(x), we provide a method to determine if f is irreducible over Z, and if not, find one of its divisors in Z[x].

Group-invariant solutions of semilinear Schrodinger equations in multi-dimensions

Symmetry group methods are applied to obtain all explicit group-invariant radial solutions to a class of semilinear Schr¨odinger equations in dimensions n = 1. Both focusing and defocusing cases of a power nonlinearity are considered, including the special case of the pseudo-conformal power p = 4/n relevant for critical dynamics. The methods involve, first, reduction of the Schr¨odinger equations to group-invariant semilinear complex 2nd order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with respect to an optimal set of one-dimensional point symmetry groups, and second, use of inherited symmetries, hidden symmetries, and conditional symmetries to solve each ODE by quadratures. Through Noether’s theorem, all conservation laws arising from these point symmetry groups are listed. Some group-invariant solutions are found to exist for values of n other than just positive integers, and in such cases an alternative two-dimensional form of the Schr¨odinger equations involving an extra modulation term with a parameter m = 2−n = 0 is discussed.