A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical Simulation of Waves Generated by Seafloor Movements

Waves generated by vertical seafloor movements are simulated by use of a fully nonlinear two-dimensional numerical wave tank. In the source region, the seafloor lifts to a designated height by a generation function. The numerical tests show that file linear theory is only valid for estimating the wave behaviors induced by the seafloor movements with a small amplitude, and the fully nonlinear numerical model should be adopted in the simulation of the wave generation by the large amplitude seafloor movements. Without the background surface waves, many numerical tests on the stable maximum elevations eta(max)(0) are carried out by both the linear theory and the fully nonlinear model. The results of two models are compared and analyzed. For the fully nonlinear model, the influences of the amplitudes and the horizontal lengths on eta(max)(0) are stronger than that of the characteristic duration times. Furthermore, results reveal that there are significant differences between the linear theory and the fully nonlinear model. When the influences of the background surface waves are considered, the corresponding numerical analyses reveal that with the fully nonlinear model the eta(max)(0) near-linearly varies with the wave amplitudes of the surface waves, and the eta(max)(0) has significant dependences on the wave lengths and the wave phases of the surface waves. In addition, the differences between the linear theory and the fully nonlinear model are still obvious, aid these differences are significantly affected by The wave parameters of the background surface waves, such as the wave amplitude, the wave length and the wave phase.

Evaluation of a national evidence-based health care course via teleconference in a developing country

Rationale, aims and objectives Continuing health education is essential but challenged. in 2006, the Brazilian Cochrane Center, in collaboration with the Ministry of Health, launched a mass teaching initiative in evidence-based health care (EBH) for public-sector professionals via teleconferencing. This 152-hour, interactive EBH course has enrolled over 4500 professionals. This study aimed to assess the acquisition EBH knowledge and skills, as well as the attitudes and perceptions of a sample of students enrolled in the 2009 course via teleconferencing.Methods This prospective cohort study analyzed three aspects of this 152-hour EBH course that recruited 1040 volunteer participants, all public health sector employees working in 131 different hospitals or health agencies. Pre- and post-course tests using a modified version of the Berlin questionnaire with 20 multiple-choice questions were used to examine knowledge acquisition in a sample of 297 students. Tests were completed upon registration and at course completion. the research projects submitted by 872 participants were evaluated to assess skill acquisition. Answers to an anonymous survey assessed the attitudes and perceptions of 914 participants.Results There was a significant increase in knowledge from baseline to course completion (mean scores 8.2 +/- 3.3 versus 13.7 +/- 3.0, P < 0.001). Over 90% of the research projects were judged to be of adequate quality (appropriate rationale for the study, well-formulated research question and feasible execution); over 95% of the participants were satisfied with the course.Conclusion the Brazilian EBH course via teleconference improved the knowledge and skills of public-sector health professionals and was approved by the vast majority of students.

How smokers may react to cigarette taxes and price increases in Brazil: data from a national survey

Background: Despite being the third largest tobacco producer in the world, Brazil has developed a comprehensive tobacco control policy that includes a broad restriction on both advertising and smoking in indoor public places, compulsory pictorial warning labels, and a menthol cigarette ban. However, tax and pricing policies have been developed slowly and only very recently were stronger measures implemented. This study investigated the expected responses of smokers to hypothetical price increases in Brazil.Methods: We analyzed smokers' responses to hypothetical future price increases according to sociodemographic characteristics and smoking conditions in a multistage sample of Brazilian current cigarette smokers aged >= 14 years (n = 500). Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between possible responses and different predictors.Results: in most subgroups investigated, smokers most frequently said they would react to a hypothetical price increase by taking up alternatives that might have a positive impact on health, i.e., they would try to stop smoking (52.3%) or smoke fewer cigarettes (46.8%). However, a considerable percentage responded that they would use alternatives that would reduce the effect of price increases, such as the same brand with lower cost (48.1%). After controlling for sex age group (14-19, 20-39, 40-59, and >= 60 years), schooling level (>= 9 versus <= 9 years), number of cigarettes per day (>20 versus <= 20), and stage of change for smoking cessation (precontemplation, contemplation, and preparation), lower levels of dependence were positively associated with the response I would try to stop smoking (odds ratio [OR], 2.19). Young age was associated with I would decrease the number of cigarettes (OR, 3.44). A low schooling level was strongly associated with all responses.Conclusions: Taxes and prices increases have great potential to stimulate cessation or reduction of cigarette consumption further among two important vulnerable populations of smokers in Brazil: young smokers and those of low educational level. the results from the present study also suggest that seeking illegal products may reduce the impact of increased taxes, but does not eliminate it.

Gender and health: a social movement’s agenda for Big Pharma.

Social movements have an important new campaigning and organizing competence in new information communication technologies. These technologies also enable the members of social movements to readily research the accuracy of information: knowledge becomes globalized and readily accessible. In relation to Big Pharma, women’s social movements and social movements of the medicated intersect, and there is now a substantial challenge to Big Pharma both within developed and developing countries from the terrain of gender and health. This paper documents those challenges and looks towards their consequences in the future both in respect of Big Pharma but also in terms of 'academic' research

Evaluation of the Specialist Libraries/Communities of Practice. Report for National Library for Health

Cooper, J., Spink, S., Thomas, R. & Urquhart, C. (2005). Evaluation of the Specialist Libraries/Communities of Practice. Report for National Library for Health. Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth. Sponsorship: National Library for Health (NLH)

Assessing training and professional development needs of library staff. Report for National Library of Health

Urquhart, C., Spink, S. & Thomas, R., Assessing training and professional development needs of library staff. Report for National Library of Health. (2005). Aberystwyth: Department of Information Studies, University of Wales Aberystwyth Sponsorship: National Library for Health (NHS Information Authority)

Moving Communities of Practice forward: the challenge for the National electronic Library for Health and its Virtual Branch Libraries

Yeoman, A., Urquhart, C. & Sharp, S. (2003). Moving Communities of Practice forward: the challenge for the National electronic Library for Health and its Virtual Branch Libraries. Health Informatics Journal, 9(4), 241-252. Previously appeared as a conference paper for the iSHIMR2003 conference (Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Health Information Management Research, June 1-3, 2003, Boras, Sweden) Sponsorship: NHS Information Authority/National electronic Library for Health

Developing communities of practice in the NeLH (National electronic Library for Health)

Urquhart, C., Yeoman, A., Sharp, S. (2003). Developing communities of practice in the NeLH (National electronic Library for Health). In Proceedings of the UKAIS (UK Academy for Information Systems) annual conference, University of Warwick, April 2003. Sponsorship: NHS Information Authority/National electronic Library for Health

Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive.

Spink, S., Urquhart, C., Cox, A. & Higher Education Academy - Information and Computer Sciences Subject Centre. (2007). Procurement of electronic content across the UK National Health Service and Higher Education sectors. Report to JISC executive and LKDN executive. Sponsorship: JISC/LKDN

Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK

Urquhart, C. J., Cox, A. M.& Spink, S. (2007). Collaboration on procurement of e-content between the National Health Service and higher education in the UK. Interlending & Document Supply, 35(3), 164-170. Sponsorship: JISC, LKDN

Ignorance is no Defence but is Inaccessibility? On the Accessibility of National Laws to Foreign Online Publishers

Kohl, U. (2005). Ignorance is no Defence but is Inaccessibility? On the Accessibility of National Laws to Foreign Online Publishers. Information & Communities Technology Law, 14 (1), 25-41. RAE2008 Information & Communications Technology Law Volume 14, Issue 1, 2005 Special Issue: GATED COMMUNITIES

HIV/AIDS and national security

McInnes, C., 'HIV/AIDS and national security', in: AIDS and Governance, N. Poku, A. Whiteside and B. Sandkjaer (eds.),(Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007), pp.93-111 RAE2008

Towards national identities: Welsh theatres

Williams, Ioan. 'Towards national identities: Welsh theatres', In: The Cambridge History of British Theatre, (Eds) Kershaw, Baz., Cambridge University Press, 2004, pp.242-272 RAE2008

Hybridization between Brassica napus and B-rapa on a national scale in the United Kingdom

Mike J. Wilkinson, Luisa J. Elliott, Jo?l Allainguillaume, Michael W. Shaw, Carol Norris, Ruth Welters, Matthew Alexander, Jeremy Sweet, David C. Mason (2003). Hybridization between Brassica napus and B-rapa on a national scale in the United Kingdom, Science, 302 (5644), 457-459. RAE2008