Stationary Markovian Equilibrium in Overlapping Generation Models with Stochastic Nonclassical Production

This paper provides new sufficient conditions for the existence, computation via successive approximations, and stability of Markovian equilibrium decision processes for a large class of OLG models with stochastic nonclassical production. Our notion of stability is existence of stationary Markovian equilibrium. With a nonclassical production, our economies encompass a large class of OLG models with public policy, valued fiat money, production externalities, and Markov shocks to production. Our approach combines aspects of both topological and order theoretic fixed point theory, and provides the basis of globally stable numerical iteration procedures for computing extremal Markovian equilibrium objects. In addition to new theoretical results on existence and computation, we provide some monotone comparative statics results on the space of economies.

Mid-Wisconsin to Holocene permafrost and landscape dynamics based on a drained lake basin core from the northern Seward Peninsula, Northwest Alaska

Permafrost-related processes drive regional landscape dynamics in the Arctic terrestrial system. A better understanding of past periods indicative of permafrost degradation and aggradation is important for predicting the future response of Arctic landscapes to climate change. Here, we used a multi-proxy approach to analyze a ~4 m long sediment core from a drained thermokarst lake basin on the northern Seward Peninsula in western Arctic Alaska (USA). Sedimentological, biogeochemistical, geochronological, micropaleontological (ostracoda, testate amoeba) and tephra analyses were used to determine the long-term environmental Early-Wisconsin to Holocene history preserved in our core for Central Beringia. Yedoma accumulation dominated throughout the Early to Late-Wisconsin but was interrupted by wetland formation from 44.5 to 41.5 ka BP. The latter was terminated by deposition of 1 m of volcanic tephra, most likely originating from the South Killeak Maar eruption at about 42 ka BP. Yedoma deposition continued until 22.5 ka BP and was followed by a depositional hiatus in the sediment core between 22.5 and 0.23 ka BP. We interpret this hiatus as due to intense thermokarst activity in the areas surrounding the site, which served as a sediment source during the Late-Wisconsin to Holocene climate transition. The lake forming the modern basin on the upland initiated around 0.23 ka BP, which drained catastrophically in spring 2005. The present study emphasizes that Arctic lake systems and periglacial landscapes are highly dynamic and permafrost formation as well as degradation in Central Beringia was controlled by regional to global climate patterns and as well as by local disturbances.

Planktic foraminifera from the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum at Shatsky Rise, Pacific Ocean

High-resolution biostratigraphic and quantitative studies of subtropical Pacific planktonic foraminiferal assemblages (Ocean Drilling Program, Leg 198 Shatsky Rise, Sites 1209 and 1210) are performed to analyse the faunal changes associated with the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at about 55.5 Ma. At Shatsky Rise, the onset of the PETM is marked by the abrupt onset of a negative carbon isotope excursion close to the contact between carbonate-rich ooze and overlying clay-rich ooze and corresponds to a level of poor foraminiferal preservation as a result of carbonate dissolution. Lithology, planktonic foraminiferal distribution and abundances, calcareous plankton and benthic events, and the negative carbon isotope excursion allow precise correlation of the two Shatsky Rise records. Results from quantitative analyses show that Morozovella dominates the assemblages and that its maximum relative abundance is coincident with the lowest delta 13C values, whereas subbotinids are absent in the interval of maximum abundance of Morozovella. The excursion taxa (Acarinina africana, Acarinina sibaiyaensis, and Morozovella allisonensis) first appear at the base of the event. Comparison between the absolute abundances of whole specimens and fragments of genera demonstrate that the increase in absolute abundance of Morozovella and the decrease of Subbotina are not an artifact of selective dissolution. Moreover, the shell fragmentation data reveal Subbotina to be the more dissolution-susceptible taxon. The upward decrease in abundance of Morozovella species and the concomitant increase in test size of Morozovella velascoensis are not controlled by dissolution. These changes could be attributed to the species' response to low nutrient supply in the surface waters and to concomitant changes in the physical and chemical properties of the seawater, including increased surface stratification and salinity. Comparison of the planktonic foraminiferal changes at Shatsky Rise to those from other PETM records (Sites 865 and 690) highlights significant similarities, such as the decline of Subbotina at the onset of the event, and discrepancies, including the difference in abundance of the excursion taxa. The observed planktonic foraminifera species response suggests a warm-oligotrophic scenario with a high degree of complexity in the ocean structure.

Thermal diagenesis of clay minerals within volcanogenic material from ODP Site 135-841

Clay minerals are examined in detail in the sediment from the Tonga Trench margin at Site 841 (Leg 135 ODP). The changes in amount and nature of secondary clays with depth provide an alternative explanation for the intensive alteration of volcanogenic material at convergent margins. A characteristic distribution of clay minerals with depth shows four distinct zones unexplainable by simple burial diagenesis processes. These are named the upper, reactive, lower and rhyolitic zones. The reactive zone is intercalated with numerous sills and is characterized by the dominant iron-rich clays such as saponite, corrensite and chlorite associated with analcime. The occurrence of such iron-rich clays, mostly associated with a large amount of analcime, yields chemical and mineralogical evidence for thermal diagenesis. The required heat for the diagenetic process was transferred from recently intruded basaltic andesite sills. In the vicinity of these intrusions, the iron-rich clay minerals may have formed at temperatures up to 200°C. A zoning with respect to clay and zeolite minerals indicates that the influence of the palaeoheat flow decreased with the distance from the intrusion. The formation of interlayered I/S, illite, kaolinite and aluminous chlorite, which are recognized as major secondary minerals within the rhyolitic complex, was mainly controlled by both early diagenesis at moderately elevated temperatures, and since the Eocene by burial diagenesis at low temperatures. The occurrence of a steam zone in an early stage of the intrusion is restricted to Miocene tuffs and has overprinted the early alteration of the volcanogenic material within the tuffs and has changed the originally pristine composition of the pore fluids.

Geochemical traces across the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum on Walvis Ridge

An understanding of sediment redox conditions across the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) (?55 Ma) is essential for evaluating changes in processes that control deep-sea oxygenation, as well as identifying the mechanisms responsible for driving the benthic foraminifera extinction. Sites cored on the flanks of Walvis Ridge (Ocean Drilling Program Leg 208, Sites 1262, 1266, and 1263) allow us to examine changes in bottom and pore water redox conditions across a ~2 km depth transect of deep-sea sediments of PETM age recovered from the South Atlantic. Here we present measurements of the concentrations of redox-sensitive trace metals manganese (Mn) and uranium (U) in bulk sediment as proxies for redox chemistry at the sediment-water interface and below. All three Walvis Ridge sites exhibit bulk Mn enrichment factors (EF) ranging between 4 and 12 prior to the warming, values at crustal averages (Mn EF = 1) during the warming interval, and a return to pre-event values during the recovery period. U enrichment factors across the PETM remains at crustal averages (U EF = 1) at Site 1262 (deep) and Site 1266 (intermediate depth). U enrichment factors at Site 1263 (shallow) peaked at 5 immediately prior to the PETM and dropped to values near crustal averages during and after the event. All sites were lower in dissolved oxygen content during the PETM. Before and after the PETM, the deep and intermediate sites were oxygenated, while the shallow site was suboxic. Our geochemical results indicate that oxygen concentrations did indeed drop during the PETM but not sufficiently to cause massive extinction of benthic foraminifera.

Measurements of formation, degradation, and sinking velocity of diatom aggregates from laboratory studies performed at 15 °C and 4 °C

Most deep ocean carbon flux profiles show low and almost constant fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the deep ocean. However, the reason for the non-changing POC fluxes at depths is unknown. This study presents direct measurements of formation, degradation, and sinking velocity of diatom aggregates from laboratory studies performed at 15 °C and 4 °C during a three-week experiment. The average carbon-specific respiration rate during the experiment was 0.12 ± 0.03 at 15 °C, and decreased 3.5-fold when the temperature was lowered to 4 °C. No direct influence of temperature on aggregate sinking speed was observed. Using the remineralisation rate measured at 4 °C and an average particle sinking speed of 150 m d**-1, calculated carbon fluxes were similar to those collected in deep ocean sediment traps from a global data set, indicating that temperature plays a major role for deep ocean fluxes of POC.

Sampling data, experimental data and fecal pellet characteristics of water pump samples in the strait of Øresund between Denmark and Sweden during 2004/2005

Copepod fecal pellets are often degraded at high rates within the upper part of the water column. However, the identity of the degraders and the processes governing the degradation remain unresolved. To identify the pellet degraders we collected water from Øresund (Denmark) approximately every second month from July 2004 to July 2005. These water samples were divided into 5 fractions (<0.2, <2, <20, <100, <200 µm) and total (unfractionated). We determined fecal pellet degradation rate and species composition of the plankton from triplicate incubations of each fraction and a known, added amount of fecal pellets. The total degradation rate of pellets by the natural plankton community of Øresund followed the phytoplankton biomass, with maximum degradation rate during the spring bloom (2.5 ± 0.49 d**-1) and minimum (0.52 ± 0.14 d**-1) during late winter. Total pellet removal rate ranged from 22% d**-1 (July 2005) to 87% d**-1 (May). Protozooplankton (dinoflagellates and ciliates) in the size range of 20 to 100 µm were the key degraders of the fecal pellets, contributing from 15 to 53% of the total degradation rate. Free-living in situ bacteria did not affect pellet degradation rate significantly; however, culture-originating bacteria introduced in association with the pellets contributed up to 59% of the total degradation rate. An effect of late-stage copepod nauplii (>200 µm) was indicated, but this was not a dominating degradation process. Mesozooplankton did not contribute significantly to the degradation. However, grazing of mesozooplankton on the pellet degraders impacts pellet degradation rate indirectly. In conclusion, protozooplankton seems to include the key organisms for the recycling of copepod fecal pellets in the water column, both through the microbial loop and, especially, by functioning as an effective 'protozoan filter' for fecal pellets.

Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

Foraminiferal abundances and preservation in ODP Hole 130-805C

Downcore changes in various carbonate dissolution indexes are documented for Hole 805C for the last 1.2 m.y. These indexes include degree of fragmentation of planktonic foraminifers, percent sand, abundance ratio of species of contrasting solution susceptibilities (Globigerinoides sacculifer vs. Pulleniatina, Globorotalia tumida, and Globorotalia menardii), and the difference in d18O between species of contrasting solution susceptibilities (G. sacculifer vs. Pulleniatina). These preservation indexes have been combined into a single composite dissolution index that corresponds closely to the d18O record. The rate of change of the oxygen isotope signal is also important, with glacial-to-interglacial transitions corresponding to maximum preservation events and vice versa. For information on changing productivity (which is important because an increased supply of organic matter may enhance dissolution by lowering pH upon degradation), we present the abundance of coarse-fraction benthic foraminifers per gram and the ratio between two planktonic foraminiferal species, one of which is strongly associated with equatorial upwelling (Globorotalia tumida vs. Pulleniatina). Our results suggest that productivity plays a subordinate role in determining foraminifer preservation. Furthermore, our results confirm previous observations that associate enhanced preservation events with glacial periods and with glacial-to-interglacial transitions. A correlation between preservation and sedimentation rates of these carbonate-rich sediments could not be established. Notable differences are present between the responses of individual dissolution indexes, indicating that processes other than dissolution determine proxy indexes to varying degrees.

Fragmentation and dissolution of benthic foraminifera in Kiel Bight, Baltic Sea, Germany

Early diagenetic ultrastructural alterations of benthic foraminifers of the genera Elphidium and Ophthalmina from the shallow water sediments of the Kiel Bight were investigated by scanning electron microscopy. Pure solution patterns were deduced from supplementary experiments.//Several carbonate destroying processes can be specified by ultrastructural patterns of the shell surfaces. Based on these patterns three zones are established, each showing different mechanisms of shell fragmentation: 1) zone of abrasion, 2) zone of disintegration, 3) zone of corrosion. This zonation depends on the water depth and is caused primarily by water agitation and by under saturation of the bottom water with respect to carbonate.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of foraminifera, Globigerinoides ruber and Globigerinella siphonifera during experiments, 2011

Specimens of two species of planktic foraminifera, Globigerinoides ruber and Globigerinella siphonifera, were grown under controlled laboratory conditions at a range of temperatures (18-31 °C), salinities (32-44 psu) and pH levels (7.9-8.4). The shells were examined for their calcium isotope compositions (d44/40Ca) and strontium to calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) using Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry and Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. Although the total variation in d44/40Ca (~0.3 per mill) in the studied species is on the same order as the external reproducibility, the data set reveals some apparent trends that are controlled by more than one environmental parameter. There is a well-defined inverse linear relationship between d44/40Ca and Sr/Ca in all experiments, suggesting similar controls on these proxies in foraminiferal calcite independent of species. Analogous to recent results from inorganically precipitated calcite, we suggest that Ca isotope fractionation and Sr partitioning in planktic foraminifera are mainly controlled by precipitation kinetics. This postulation provides us with a unique tool to calculate precipitation rates and draws support from the observation that Sr/Ca ratios are positively correlated with average growth rates. At 25 °C water temperature, precipitation rates in G. siphonifera and G. ruber are calculated to be on the order of 2000 and 3000 µmol/m**2/h, respectively. The lower d44/40Ca observed at 29 °C in both species is consistent with increased precipitation rates at high water temperatures. Salinity response of d44/40Ca (and Sr/Ca) in G. siphonifera implies that this species has the highest precipitation rates at the salinity of its natural habitat, whereas increasing salinities appear to trigger higher precipitation rates in G. ruber. Isotope effects that cannot be explained by precipitation rate in planktic foraminifera can be explained by a biological control, related to a vacuolar pathway for supply of ions during biomineralization and a pH regulation mechanism in these vacuoles. In case of an additional pathway via cross-membrane transport, supplying light Ca for calcification, the d44/40Ca of the reservoir is constrained as -0.2 per mill relative to seawater. Using a Rayleigh distillation model, we calculate that calcification occurs in a semi-open system, where less than half of the Ca supplied by vacuolization is utilized for calcite precipitation. Our findings are relevant for interpreting paleo-proxy data on d44/40Ca and Sr/Ca in foraminifera as well as understanding their biomineralization processes.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Limacina helicina during experiments, 2011

Due to their aragonitic shell, thecosome pteropods may be particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This applies specifically to species inhabiting Arctic surface waters that are projected to become temporarily and locally undersaturated with respect to aragonite as early as 2016. This study investigated the effects of rising partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and elevated temperature on pre-winter juveniles of the polar pteropod Limacina helicina. After a 29 day experiment in September/October 2009 at three different temperatures and under pCO2 scenarios projected for this century, mortality, shell degradation, shell diameter and shell increment were investigated. Temperature and pCO2 had a significant effect on mortality, but temperature was the overriding factor. Shell diameter, shell increment and shell degradation were significantly impacted by pCO2 but not by temperature. Mortality was 46% higher at 8 °C than at in situ temperature (3 °C), and 14% higher at 1100 ?atm than at 230 ?atm. Shell diameter and increment were reduced by 10 and 12% at 1100 ?atm and 230 ?atm, respectively, and shell degradation was 41% higher at elevated compared to ambient pCO2. We conclude that pre-winter juveniles will be negatively affected by both rising temperature and pCO2 which may result in a possible decline in abundance of the overwintering population, the basis for next year's reproduction.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of mussel Crassostrea gigas during experiments, 2011

Climate change with increasing temperature and ocean acidification (OA) poses risks for marine ecosystems. According to Pörtner and Farrell [1], synergistic effects of elevated temperature and CO2-induced OA on energy metabolism will narrow the thermal tolerance window of marine ectothermal animals. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the effect of an acute temperature rise on energy metabolism of the oyster, Crassostrea gigas chronically exposed to elevated CO2 levels (partial pressure of CO2 in the seawater ~0.15 kPa, seawater pH ~ 7.7). Within one month of incubation at elevated PCO2 and 15 °C hemolymph pH fell (pHe = 7.1 ± 0.2 (CO2-group) vs. 7.6 ± 0.1 (control)) and PeCO2 values in hemolymph increased (0.5 ± 0.2 kPa (CO2-group) vs. 0.2 ± 0.04 kPa (control)). Slightly but significantly elevated bicarbonate concentrations in the hemolymph of CO2-incubated oysters ([HCO-3]e = 1.8 ± 0.3 mM (CO2-group) vs. 1.3 ± 0.1 mM (control)) indicate only minimal regulation of extracellular acid-base status. At the acclimation temperature of 15 °C the OA-induced decrease in pHe did not lead to metabolic depression in oysters as standard metabolism rates (SMR) of CO2-exposed oysters were similar to controls. Upon acute warming SMR rose in both groups, but displayed a stronger increase in the CO2-incubated group. Investigation in isolated gill cells revealed a similar temperature-dependence of respiration between groups. Furthermore, the fraction of cellular energy demand for ion regulation via Na+/K+-ATPase was not affected by chronic hypercapnia or temperature. Metabolic profiling using 1H-NMR spectroscopy revealed substantial changes in some tissues following OA exposure at 15 °C. In mantle tissue alanine and ATP levels decreased significantly whereas an increase in succinate levels was observed in gill tissue. These findings suggest shifts in metabolic pathways following OA-exposure. Our study confirms that OA affects energy metabolism in oysters and suggests that climate change may affect populations of sessile coastal invertebrates such as mollusks