Term structure of interest rates. European financial integration

In this paper we estimate, analyze and compare the term structures of interest rates in six different countries over the period 1992-2004. We apply the Nelson-Siegel model to obtain the term structures of interest rates at weekly intervals. A total of 4,038 curves are estimated and analyzed. Four European Monetary Union countries¿Spain, France, Germany and Italy¿are included. The UK is also included as a European non-member of the Monetary Union. Finally the US completes the analysis. The goal is to determine the differences in the shapes of the term structure of interest rates among these countries. Likewise, we can determine the most usual term structure shapes that appear for each country.*****

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

External irradiation with or without long-term androgen suppression for prostate cancer with high metastatic risk: 10-year results of an EORTC randomised study.

BACKGROUND: We did a randomised phase 3 trial assessing the benefit of addition of long-term androgen suppression with a luteinising-hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonist to external irradiation in patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk. In this report, we present the 10-year results. METHODS: For this open-label randomised trial, eligible patients were younger than 80 years and had newly diagnosed histologically proven T1-2 prostatic adenocarcinoma with WHO histological grade 3 or T3-4 prostatic adenocarcinoma of any histological grade, and a WHO performance status of 0-2. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive radiotherapy alone or radiotherapy plus immediate androgen suppression. Treatment allocation was open label and used a minimisation algorithm with institution, clinical stage of the disease, results of pelvic-lymph-node dissection, and irradiation fields extension as minimisation factors. Patients were irradiated externally, once a day, 5 days a week, for 7 weeks to a total dose of 50 Gy to the whole pelvis, with an additional 20 Gy to the prostate and seminal vesicles. The LHRH agonist, goserelin acetate (3·6 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks), was started on the first day of irradiation and continued for 3 years; cyproterone acetate (50 mg orally three times a day) was given for 1 month starting a week before the first goserelin injection. The primary endpoint was clinical disease-free survival. Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00849082. FINDINGS: Between May 22, 1987, and Oct 31, 1995, 415 patients were randomly assigned to treatment groups and were included in the analysis (208 radiotherapy alone, 207 combined treatment). Median follow-up was 9·1 years (IQR 5·1-12·6). 10-year clinical disease-free survival was 22·7% (95% CI 16·3-29·7) in the radiotherapy-alone group and 47·7% (39·0-56·0) in the combined treatment group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·42, 95% CI 0·33-0·55, p<0·0001). 10-year overall survival was 39·8% (95% CI 31·9-47·5) in patients receiving radiotherapy alone and 58·1% (49·2-66·0) in those allocated combined treatment (HR 0·60, 95% CI 0·45-0·80, p=0·0004), and 10-year prostate-cancer mortality was 30·4% (95% CI 23·2-37·5) and 10·3% (5·1-15·4), respectively (HR 0·38, 95% CI 0·24-0·60, p<0·0001). No significant difference in cardiovascular mortality was noted between treatment groups both in patients who had cardiovascular problems at study entry (eight of 53 patients in the combined treatment group had a cardiovascular-related cause of death vs 11 of 63 in the radiotherapy group; p=0·60) and in those who did not (14 of 154 vs six of 145; p=0·25). Two fractures were reported in patients allocated combined treatment. INTERPRETATION: In patients with prostate cancer with high metastatic risk, immediate androgen suppression with an LHRH agonist given during and for 3 years after external irradiation improves 10-year disease-free and overall survival without increasing late cardiovascular toxicity.

Characterization of soil structure and porosity under long-term conventional tillage and no-tillage systems

Different management systems tend to modify soil structure and porosity over the years. The aim of this study was to study modifications in the morphostructure and porosity of dystroferric Red Latosol (Oxisol) under conventional tillage and no-tillage over a 31- year period. The study began with the description of soil profiles based on the cropping profile method, to identify the most compact structures, define sample collection points for physical and chemical analysis, and determine the water retention curve. A forest soil profile was described and used as reference. The results showed that, under conventional tillage, the microaggregate structure of the Oxisol was fragmented between 0 and 0.20 m, and compact (bulk density = 1.52 Mg m-3) in the sub-surface layer between 0.20 and 0.50 m. Under no-tillage, the structure became compacted (bulk density = 1.40 Mg m-3) between 0 and 0.60 m, but contained fissures and biopores. The volume of the class with a pore diameter of > 100 µm under no-tillage was limited, but practically non-existent in the conventional management system. On the other hand, the classes with a pore diameter of < 100 µm were not affected by the type of soil management system.

Evaluation of PCC Long-Term Durability Using Intermediate Sized Gravels to Optimize Mix Gradations, April 2010

With the implementation of the 2000 Q-MC specification, an incentive is provided to produce an optimized gradation to improve placement characteristics. Also, specifications for slip-formed barrier rail have changed to require an optimized gradation. Generally, these optimized gradations have been achieved by blending an intermediate aggregate with the coarse and fine aggregate. The demand for this intermediate aggregate has been satisfied by using crushed limestone chips developed from the crushing of the parent concrete stone. The availability, cost, and physical limitations of crushed limestone chips can be a concern. A viable option in addressing these concerns is the use of gravel as the intermediate aggregate. Unfortunately, gravels of Class 3I durability are limited to a small geographic area in Mississippi river sands north of the Rock River. Class 3 or Class 2 durability gravels are more widely available across the state. The durability classification of gravels is based on the amount and quality of the carbonate fraction of the material. At present, no service histories or research exists to assess the impact of using Class 3 or 2 durability gravels would have on the long-term durability of Portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement requiring Class 3I aggregate.

Long-term anticoagulation treatment for acute venous thromboembolism in patients with and without cancer. The SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER) II.

In patients with acute cancer-associated thrombosis, current consensus guidelines recommend anticoagulation therapy for an indefinite duration or until the cancer is resolved. Among 1,247 patients with acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) enrolled in the prospective Swiss Venous Thromboembolism Registry (SWIVTER) II from 18 hospitals, 315 (25%) had cancer of whom 179 (57%) had metastatic disease, 159 (50%) ongoing or recent chemotherapy, 83 (26%) prior cancer surgery, and 63 (20%) recurrent VTE. Long-term anticoagulation treatment for >12 months was more often planned in patients with versus without cancer (47% vs. 19%; p<0.001), with recurrent cancer-associated versus first cancer-associated VTE (70% vs. 41%; p<0.001), and with metastatic versus non-metastatic cancer (59% vs. 31%; p<0.001). In patients with cancer, recurrent VTE (OR 3.46; 95%CI 1.83-6.53), metastatic disease (OR 3.04; 95%CI 1.86-4.97), and the absence of an acute infection (OR 3.55; 95%CI 1.65-7.65) were independently associated with the intention to maintain anticoagulation for >12 months. In conclusion, long-term anticoagulation treatment for more than 12 months was planned in less than half of the cancer patients with acute VTE. The low rates of long-term anticoagulation in cancer patients with a first episode of VTE and in patients with non-metastatic cancer require particular attention.

Potassium availability in a hapludalf soil under long term fertilization

In a system in which fertilization is recommended, diagnosis of soil K availability and the establishment of critical levels are made difficult by the possibility of a contribution of non-exchangeable forms of K for plant nutrition. Due to its magnitude, this contribution is well diagnosed in long term experiments and in those which compare fertilization systems with positive and negative balances in terms of replacement of the K extracted by plants. The objective of this study was to evaluate K availability in a Hapludalf under fertilization for sixteen years with the addition of K doses. The study was undertaken in an experiment set up in 1991 and carried out until 2007 in the experimental area of the Soil Department of the Federal University of Santa Maria (Universidade Federal de Santa Maria - UFSM), in Santa Maria (RS), Brazil. The soil was a Typic Hapludalf submitted to four doses of K (0, 60, 120 and 180 kg ha-1 K2O) and subdivided in the second year, when 60 kg ha-1 of K2O were reapplied in the subplots in 0, 1, 2 and 3 times. As of the fifth year, the procedure was repeated. Grain yield above ground dry matter and total K content contained in the plant tissue were evaluated. Soil samples were collected, oven dried, ground, passed through a sieve and submitted to exchangeable K analysis by the Mehlich-1 extractor; non-exchangeable K by boiling HNO3 1 mol L-1 and total K by HF digestion. Potassium fertilization guidelines should foresee the establishment of a critical level as of which the recommended dose should accompany crop needs, which coincides with the quantity exported by the grain, without there being the need for the creation of broad ranges of K availability to predict K fertilization. In adopting the K fertilization recommendations proposed in this manner, there will not be K translocation in the soil profile.

Willigness to pay for long-term care coverage: the role of private information and self-insurance

Both public and private insurance for long-term care is undeveloped in some European countries such as in Spain and empirical evidence is still limited. This paper aims at exmining the determinants of the demand for Long Term Care (LTC) coverage in Spain using contingent valuation techniques. Our findings indicate that only one-fifth of the population is willing to pay to assure coverage decisions are significantly affected by private information asymmetry and housing tenure in giving rise to self-insurance reduces the probability of insurance being hypothetically purchased.

On the consequences of misspecifing assumptions concerning residuals distribution in a repeated measures and nonlinear mixed modelling context

In this paper we describe the results of a simulation study performed to elucidate the robustness of the Lindstrom and Bates (1990) approximation method under non-normality of the residuals, under different situations. Concerning the fixed effects, the observed coverage probabilities and the true bias and mean square error values, show that some aspects of this inferential approach are not completely reliable. When the true distribution of the residuals is asymmetrical, the true coverage is markedly lower than the nominal one. The best results are obtained for the skew normal distribution, and not for the normal distribution. On the other hand, the results are partially reversed concerning the random effects. Soybean genotypes data are used to illustrate the methods and to motivate the simulation scenarios

Impact of incorrect assumptions on the covariance structure of random effects and/or residuals in nonlinear mixed models for repeated measures data

In this paper we analyse, using Monte Carlo simulation, the possible consequences of incorrect assumptions on the true structure of the random effects covariance matrix and the true correlation pattern of residuals, over the performance of an estimation method for nonlinear mixed models. The procedure under study is the well known linearization method due to Lindstrom and Bates (1990), implemented in the nlme library of S-Plus and R. Its performance is studied in terms of bias, mean square error (MSE), and true coverage of the associated asymptotic confidence intervals. Ignoring other criteria like the convenience of avoiding over parameterised models, it seems worst to erroneously assume some structure than do not assume any structure when this would be adequate.

Short-term effects of prescribed burning on wood-rotting fungi

Summary

Long-term treatment of aggregating brain cell cultures with low concentrations of lead acetate.

Aggregating brain cell cultures were used as a model to study the effect of chronic exposure to low levels of lead acetate. Long-term maintenance of cultures could be improved by supplementation of the medium with albumin-bound lipids. Exposure for 9 days to 10(-6)-10(-4) M lead acetate caused a decrease of GABAergic (glutamic acid decarboxylase) and astrocytic (glutamine synthetase) markers which was also found after prolonged treatment (50 days) with 10(-7) M lead acetate. Total protein content and choline acetyltransferase were not changed. The results show that prolonged exposure of aggregating brain cell cultures to a low concentration of lead acetate causes distinct changes of cell type-specific parameters.

Safety of combined heat and moisture exchanger filters in long-term mechanical ventilation.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety of a combined heat and moisture exchanger filter (HMEF) for the conditioning of inspired gas in long-term mechanical ventilation (MV). DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Medical ICU in a large teaching hospital. PATIENTS: One hundred fifteen consecutive patients who required > or = 48 h of MV. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were randomized at intubation time (day 1) to receive inspired gas conditioned either by a water-bath humidifier heated at 32 degrees C (HWBH) or by an HMEF (Hygroster; DAR; Mirandola, Italy). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The two study groups were comparable in terms of primary pathologic condition at the time of hospital admission, disease severity as measured by the Simplified Acute Physiology Score, and ICU mortality. They did not differ with respect to ventilator days per patient (mean +/- SD: HMEF, 7.6 +/- 6.5; HWBH, 7.8 +/- 5.8), incidence of endotracheal tube obstruction (HMEF, 0/59; HWBH, 1/56), and incidence of hypothermic episodes (HMEF, five; HWBH, two). In 41 patients receiving MV for > or = 5 days, the morphologic integrity of respiratory epithelium was evaluated on day 1 and day 5, using a cytologic examination of tracheal aspirate smears. The state of ciliated epithelium was scored on a scale from 0 (poorest integrity) to 1,200 (maximum integrity), according to a well-described method. In both patient groups, the scores slightly but significantly decreased from day 1 to day 5 (mean +/- SD: HWBH, from 787 +/- 104 to 745 +/- 88; HMEF, from 813 +/- 79 to 739 +/- 62; p < 0.01 for both groups); there were no statistically significant differences between groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data indicate acceptable safety of HMEFs of the type used in the present study for long-term mechanical ventilation.

Carbon stock and its compartments in a subtropical oxisol under long-term tillage and crop rotation systems

Soil organic matter (SOM) plays a crucial role in soil quality and can act as an atmospheric C-CO2 sink under conservationist management systems. This study aimed to evaluate the long-term effects (19 years) of tillage (CT-conventional tillage and NT-no tillage) and crop rotations (R0-monoculture system, R1-winter crop rotation, and R2- intensive crop rotation) on total, particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon (C) stocks of an originally degraded Red Oxisol in Cruz Alta, RS, Southern Brazil. The climate is humid subtropical Cfa 2a (Köppen classification), the mean annual precipitation 1,774 mm and mean annual temperature 19.2 ºC. The plots were divided into four segments, of which each was sampled in the layers 0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.30 m. Sampling was performed manually by opening small trenches. The SOM pools were determined by physical fractionation. Soil C stocks had a linear relationship with annual crop C inputs, regardless of the tillage systems. Thus, soil disturbance had a minor effect on SOM turnover. In the 0-0.30 m layer, soil C sequestration ranged from 0 to 0.51 Mg ha-1 yr-1, using the CT R0 treatment as base-line; crop rotation systems had more influence on soil stock C than tillage systems. The mean C sequestration rate of the cropping systems was 0.13 Mg ha-1 yr-1 higher in NT than CT. This result was associated to the higher C input by crops due to the improvement in soil quality under long-term no-tillage. The particulate C fraction was a sensitive indicator of soil management quality, while mineral-associated organic C was the main pool of atmospheric C fixed in this clayey Oxisol. The C retention in this stable SOM fraction accounts for 81 and 89 % of total C sequestration in the treatments NT R1 and NT R2, respectively, in relation to the same cropping systems under CT. The highest C management index was observed in NT R2, confirming the capacity of this soil management practice to improve the soil C stock qualitatively in relation to CT R0. The results highlighted the diversification of crop rotation with cover crops as a crucial strategy for atmospheric C-CO2 sequestration and SOM quality improvement in highly weathered subtropical Oxisols.