Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Negative photo map of Jewish settlements in the Krivoy Rog district

Digital image

Thermal activation parameters for low temperature deformation of alpha-hafnium

Abstract is not available.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Combustion and Thermal Decomposition of Ammonium Perchlorate-Aluminium Composite Pellets: Mechanism for Aluminium Participation

Thermal behaviour of ammonium perchlorate-aluminium composites is studied using differential thermal analysis, thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry. Electrical resistivity studies throw light on the mechanism of ammonium perchlorate decomposition at different aluminium contents. The differences observed in burning behaviour by earlier authors is explained in terms of porosity and thermal conductivity of the composite.

Thermal reactivity of metal oxalate hydrazinates

Metal oxalate hydrazinates MC2O4·2 N2H4 where M=Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd have been prepared and characterised by chemical analysis and infrared spectra. Thermal reactivity and decomposition of these oxalato complexes have been studied using thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis. Hydrazinates of Mn, Fe, Co, Ni and Cu oxalates exhibit autocatalytic decomposition behaviour whereas the others do not. This phenomenon can be attributed to the presence of a bridged hydrazine as well as the thermal stability of the anhydrous metal oxalates.

Study of switching characteristics and thermal noise in ferroelectric crystals both in the pure and radiation damaged state

The phase transition in gamma-irradiated triglycine sulphate (TGS) has been investigated by using a method based on the measurement of thermal noise. The results of a study of the polarization switching characteristics of gamma irradiated TGS and sodium nitrite (NaNO2) have also been presented. The effect of irradiation on the phase transition and the switching processes has been discussed.

Measurement of sensitivities for the thermal recording of laser beams

A simple technique for determining the energy sensitivities for the thermographic recording of laser beams is described. The principle behind this technique is that, if a laser beam with a known spatial distribution such as a Gaussian profile is used for imaging, the radius of the thermal image formed depends uniquely on the intensity of the impinging beam. Thus by measuring the radii of the images produced for different incident beam intensities the minimum intensity necessary (that is, the threshold) for thermographic imaging is found. The diameter of the laser beam can also be found from this measurement. A simple analysis based on the temperature distribution in the laser heated material shows that there is an inverse square root dependence on pulse duration or period of exposure for the energy fluence of the laser beam required, both for the threshold and the subsequent increase in the size of the recording. It has also been shown that except for low intensity, long duration exposure on very low conductivity materials, heat losses are not very significant.

Preparation, Characterisation and Thermal Properties of Hydrazinium Magnesium Sulfate

Hydrazinium magnesium sulfate, (N2H5)2Mg(SO4)2, has been prepared by dissolving magnesium powder in a solution of ammonium sulfate in hydrazine hydrate, by the reaction of ammonium magnesium sulfate with hydrazine hydrate, and by the cocrystallisation of dihydrazinium sulfate and magnesium sulfate. The product has been characterized by chemical analysis and infrared spectra. Thermal analysis of (N2H5)2Mg(SO4)2 by TG and DTA show exothermic decomposition at 302°C giving Mg(N2H4)SO4 as an intermediate and an endother-mic decomposition at 504°C producing MgSO4.

Thermal decomposition of alkali metal perchlorates

The effect of past mechanical history on the subsequent thermal decomposition kinetics of sodium, potassium, rubidium and caesium perchlorates, has been investigated. At low temperatures the decomposition of all these salts is significantly sensitized by pre-compression. At high temperatures, however, prior compression results in a lowered decomposition rate in the case of potassium, rubidium and caesium perchlorates and in an increase in the thermal reactivity of sodium perchlorate. The high temperature behaviour is shown to be an indirect consequence of the low temperature behaviour. The difference in behaviour between sodium perchlorate and the other alkali metal perchlorates is explained on the basis of the stability of the respective chlorates, formed during the low temperature decomposition. This is substantiated by experiments which show that the addition of sodium chlorate to sodium perchlorate brings about a sensitization while potassium perchlorate admixed with potassium chlorate results in a desensitization at high temperatures.

Mechanisms of the impact of a weed (grader grass, Themeda quadrivalvis) on reptile assemblage structure in a tropical savannah

Invasive grasses are among the worst threats to native biodiversity, but the mechanisms causing negative effects are poorly understood. To investigate the impact of an invasive grass on reptiles, we compared the reptile assemblages that used native kangaroo grass (Themeda triandra), and black spear grass (Heteropogon contortus), to those using habitats invaded by grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis). There were significantly more reptile species, in greater abundances, in native kangaroo and black spear grass than in invasive grader grass. To understand the sources of negative responses of reptile assemblages to the weed, we compared habitat characteristics, temperatures within grass clumps, food availability and predator abundance among these three grass habitats. Environmental temperatures in grass, invertebrate food availability, and avian predator abundances did not differ among the habitats, and there were fewer reptiles that fed on other reptiles in the invaded than in the native grass sites. Thus, native grass sites did not provide better available thermal environments within the grass, food, or opportunities for predator avoidance. We suggest that habitat structure was the critical factor driving weed avoidance by reptiles in this system, and recommend that the maintenance of heterogeneous habitat structure, including clumping native grasses, with interspersed bare ground, and leaf litter are critical to reptile biodiversity.

Sirex woodwasp range expansion in Australia: performance and parasitism on two commercial pine species

Sirex woodwasp was detected in Queensland in 2009 and rapidly established in softwood plantations (Pinus radiata and P. taeda) in southern border regions. Biocontrol inoculations of Deladenus siricidicola began soon after, and adults were monitored to assess the success of the programme. Wasp size, sex ratios, emergence phenology and nematode parasitism rates were recorded, along with the assessment of wild-caught females. Patterns varied within and among seasons, but overall, P. taeda appeared to be a less suitable host than P. radiata, producing smaller adults, lower fat body content and fewer females. Sirex emerging from P. taeda also showed lower levels of nematode parasitism, possibly due to interactions with the more abundant blue-stain fungus in this host. Sirex adults generally emerged between November and March, with distinct peaks in January and March, separated by a marked drop in emergence in early February. Temperature provided the best correlate of seasonal emergence, with fortnights with higher mean minimum temperatures having higher numbers of Sirex emerging. This has implications for the anticipated northward spread of Sirex into sub-tropical coastal plantation regions. Following four seasons of inundative release of nematodes in Queensland, parasitism rates remain low and have resulted in only partial sterilization of infected females.

Influence of rapid thermal annealing (RTA) on the structural and electrical properties of SnS films

The performance of optoelectronic devices critically depends on the quality of active layer. An effective way to obtain a high quality layers is by creating excess of metal atoms through various heat treatments. Recently, rapid thermal annealing (RTA) has proved a versatile technique for the post-treatment of semiconductor materials as compared to other techniques due to its precise control over the resources. Thus, we carried out a set of experiments on SnS films to explore the influence of RTA treatment on their properties. From these experiments we noticed that the films treated at 400 °C for 1 min in N2 atmosphere have a low electrical resistivity of ~5 Ωcm with relatively high Hall mobility and carrier density of 99 cm2/Vs and 1.3 × 1016 cm−3, respectively. The observed results, therefore, emphasise that it is possible to obtain good quality SnS films through RTA treatment without disturbing their crystal structure.

Formation of Pb(Ti,Zr)O3, from thermal decomposition of oxalate precursors

Lead zir conyl oxalate hexahydrate (LZO) and lead titanyl zirconyl oxalate hydrate (LTZO) are prepared and characterized. Their thermal decompositions have been investigated by thermoanalytical and gas analysis techniques. The decomposition in air or oxygen has three steps — dehydration, decomposition of the oxalate to a carbonate and the decomposition of carbonate to PbZrO3. In non oxidising atmosphere, partial reduction of Pb(II) to Pb(0) takes place at the oxalate decomposition step. The formation of free metallic lead affects the stoichiometry of the intermediate carbonate and yields a mixture of Pb(Ti,Zr)O3 and ZrO2 as the final products. By maintaining oxidising atmosphere and low heating rate, direct preparation of stoichiometric, crystalline Pb(Ti,Zr)O3 at 550°C is possible from the corresponding oxalate precursor.

Thermal stabilization of glucose oxidase and glucoamylase by physical entrapment

Physical entrapment was used as an approach to achieve thermal stabilization of enzymes. The ti values for the thermoinactivation of glucose oxidase and glucoamylase were increased several-fold by their entrapment in polyacrylamide gels. In polyacrylate gels the individual enzymes behaved differently, probably owing to microenvironmental effects arising by the polyelectrolyte nature of the carrier.