Crises and growth: A re-evaluation

We address the question of whether growth and welfare can be higher in crisis prone economies. First, we show that there is a robust empirical link between per-capita GDP growth and negative skewness of credit growth across countries with active financial markets. That is, countries that have experienced occasional crises have grown on average faster than countries with smooth credit conditions. We then present a two-sector endogenous growth model in which financial crises can occur, and analyze the relationship between financial fragility and growth. The underlying credit market imperfections generateborrowing constraints, bottlenecks and low growth. We show that under certain conditions endogenous real exchange rate risk arises and firms find it optimal to take on credit risk in the form of currency mismatch. Along such a risky path average growth is higher, but self-fulfilling crises occur occasionally. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the adoption of credit risk is welfare improving and brings the allocation nearer to the Pareto optimal level. The design of the model is motivated by several features of recent crises: credit risk in the form of foreign currency denominated debt; costly crises that generate firesales and widespread bankruptcies; and asymmetric sectorial responses, wherethe nontradables sector falls more than the tradables sector in the wake of crises.

Measuring strategic uncertainty in coordination games

This paper explores three aspects of strategic uncertainty: its relation to risk, predictability of behavior and subjective beliefs of players. In a laboratory experiment we measure subjects certainty equivalents for three coordination games and one lottery. Behavior in coordination games is related to risk aversion, experience seeking, and age.From the distribution of certainty equivalents we estimate probabilities for successful coordination in a wide range of games. For many games, success of coordination is predictable with a reasonable error rate. The best response to observed behavior is close to the global-game solution. Comparing choices in coordination games with revealed risk aversion, we estimate subjective probabilities for successful coordination. In games with a low coordination requirement, most subjects underestimate the probability of success. In games with a high coordination requirement, most subjects overestimate this probability. Estimating probabilistic decision models, we show that the quality of predictions can be improved when individual characteristics are taken into account. Subjects behavior is consistent with probabilistic beliefs about the aggregate outcome, but inconsistent with probabilistic beliefs about individual behavior.

Vaccine potentials of an intrinsically unstructured fragment derived from the blood stage-associated Plasmodium falciparum protein PFF0165c.

We have identified new malaria vaccine candidates through the combination of bioinformatics prediction of stable protein domains in the Plasmodium falciparum genome, chemical synthesis of polypeptides, in vitro biological functional assays, and association of an antigen-specific antibody response with protection against clinical malaria. Within the predicted open reading frame of P. falciparum hypothetical protein PFF0165c, several segments with low hydrophobic amino acid content, which are likely to be intrinsically unstructured, were identified. The synthetic peptide corresponding to one such segment (P27A) was well recognized by sera and peripheral blood mononuclear cells of adults living in different regions where malaria is endemic. High antibody titers were induced in different strains of mice and in rabbits immunized with the polypeptide formulated with different adjuvants. These antibodies recognized native epitopes in P. falciparum-infected erythrocytes, formed distinct bands in Western blots, and were inhibitory in an in vitro antibody-dependent cellular inhibition parasite-growth assay. The immunological properties of P27A, together with its low polymorphism and association with clinical protection from malaria in humans, warrant its further development as a malaria vaccine candidate.

New evidence on inflation persistence and price stickiness in the Euro area: Implications for macro modelling

This paper evaluates new evidence on price setting practices and inflation persistence in the euro area with respect to its implications for macro modelling. It argues that several of the most commonly used assumptions in micro-founded macro models are seriously challenged by the new findings.

Systemic crises and growth

In this paper, we document the fact that countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have on average grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. We measure the incidence of crisis with the skewness of credit growth, and find that it has a robust negative effect on GDP growth. This link coexists with the negative link between variance and growth typically found in the literature. To explain the link between crises and growth we present a model where weak institutions lead to severe financial constraints and low growth. Financial liberalization policies that facilitaterisk-taking increase leverage and investment. This leads to higher growth, but also toa greater incidence of crises. Conditions are established under which the costs of crises are outweighed by the benefits of higher growth.

Ancrage/institutionnalisation des actions de l'OFSP visant à la réduction des problèmes liés à la toxicomanie : l'appréciation des responsables des programmes

[Table des matières] 1. Introduction. 2. Concepts et modèles d'ancrage. 3. Méthode. 4. Analyse de l'ancrage des programmes. 4.1 Programme Prévention des dépendances dans les communes (RADIX). 4.2 Programme Voilà. 4.3 Programme Fil rouge. 4.4 Programme Funtasy Projects. 4.5 Programme-cadre Ecoles et santé / REES-CH. 4.6 La "Formation des médiateurs scolaires de Suisse romande et du Tessin" et le Projet "Médication" (Ecoles et santé). 4.7 Programme "Drogue ou Sport?", Service "Drogues et sport", Programme "Sport et drogues" / LaOla. 4.8 Les projets soutenus par le Bureau suisse pour la réduction des risques liés aux drogues (OSEO). 4.9 Matériel de prévention de la toxicomanie produit par l'ISPA. 5. Conclusions : Les éléments transversaux d'ancrage des programmes. 6. Annexes.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Hawa��en hula medley ; Pua carnation / Mme Louise et M. Ferera, guit. hawa��ennes

[Traditions. Polynésie]

Counteraction of HLA-C-mediated immune control of HIV-1 by Nef.

A host genetic variant (-35C/T) correlates with increased human leukocyte antigen C (HLA-C) expression and improved control of HIV-1. HLA-C-mediated immunity may be particularly protective because HIV-1 is unable to remove HLA-C from the cell surface, whereas it can avoid HLA-A- and HLA-B-mediated immunity by Nef-mediated down-modulation. However, some individuals with the protective -35CC genotype exhibit high viral loads. Here, we investigated whether the ability of HIV-1 to replicate efficiently in the "protective" high-HLA-C-expression host environment correlates with specific functional properties of Nef. We found that high set point viral loads (sVLs) were not associated with the emergence of Nef variants that had acquired the ability to down-modulate HLA-C or were more effective in removing HLA-A and HLA-B from the cell surface. However, in individuals with the protective -35CC genotype we found a significant association between sVLs and the efficiency of Nef-mediated enhancement of virion infectivity and modulation of CD4, CD28, and the major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC-II)-associated invariant chain (Ii), while this was not observed in subjects with the -35TT genotype. Since the latter Nef functions all influence the stimulation of CD4(+) T helper cells by antigen-presenting cells, they may cooperate to affect both the activation status of infected T cells and the generation of an antiviral cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response. In comparison, different levels of viremia in individuals with the common -35TT genotype were not associated with differences in Nef function but with differences in HLA-C mRNA expression levels. Thus, while high HLA-C expression may generally facilitate control of HIV-1, Nef may counteract HLA-C-mediated immune control in some individuals indirectly, by manipulating T-cell function and MHC-II antigen presentation.

André spectral sequences for Baues-Wirsching cohomology of categories

We construct spectral sequences in the framework of Baues-Wirsching cohomology and homology for functors between small categories and analyze particular cases including Grothendieck fibrations. We also give applications to more classical cohomology and homology theories including Hochschild-Mitchell cohomology and those studied before by Watts, Roos, Quillen and others

Flota de arrastre de fondo de menor escala en la Región Tumbes

Los problemas críticos de la pesquería de arrastre de menor escala, son las capturas de ejemplares juveniles, alta presencia de descartes, pesca incidental o accesoria y conflictos con los pescadores artesanales que usan redes de enmalle cortineras. En toda la zona de estudio, los índices de captura por unidad de esfuerzo (CPUE) fue 142,4 kg/h y 477,5 kg/lance, bycatch por unidad de esfuerzo (BPUE) fue 27,2 kg/h y 91,1 kg/lance. Los mayores CPUE fueron en la zona sur dentro de las 5 mn con 199,0 kg/h y 617,8 kg/lance. La composición de la captura relativa al peso estuvo dominada por el falso volador (Prionotus stephanophrys, 24,6%) y carajito (Diplectrum conceptione, 21,4%). Las especies incidentales más importantes fueron espejo (Selene peruviana, 9,8%), bereche (Larimus pacificus, 9,3%), cachema (Cynoscion analis, 4,0%), chiri (Peprilus medius, 2,9%), lenguado de boca chica (Etropus ectenes, 2,5%), doncella (Hemanthias peruanus, 2,1%). El descarte fue 19,1% de la captura, los principales recursos fueron merluza (Merluccius gayi peruanus, 39,1%), lengüeta (Symphurus sechurae, 10,9%), morena (Muraena clepsidra, 4,9%), pez hojita (Chloroscombrus orqueta, 4,8%), otras especies 31,5% (incluyendo restos de peces y equinodermos). El índice de impacto al ecosistema marino fue de 3,7 (1: no favorable al 10: favorable). Por lo que es un arte de pesca no amigable con el ecosistema marino que no debe usarse dentro del área costera

Caracterización de redes de cerco artesanal para anchoveta destinada al consumo humano directo

Las características principales de las redes de cerco artesanales anchoveteras para CHD (PS 01.1.0 “ISSCFG”), utilizan tama��os de malla en el copo y cuerpo de ½” ~ 13 mm de material nylon Poliamida (PA). Se encontró una diferencia en las dimensiones, el material y diámetro del hilo del pa��o usado, entre las redes de las ANC-CHD tradicionales (Paita, Chimbote, Callao e Ilo) que utilizan pa��os anchoveteros de R310tex, R381tex R462tex, con longitud de relinga superior (LRS) de 183-366 m (100 a 200 bz), altura de pa��o estirado (AHE) de 27 a 64 m (15 a 35 bz); y las redes de cerco ANC-Pisco que utilizan pa��os anchoveteros de R155tex y R230tex, con LRS de 270 a 396 m (145 a 215 bz) y AHE de 30 m (16 bz). Del análisis regresional experimental, las principales características de la red (LRS, AHE), y la embarcación–capacidad de bodega-(CBOD) presentaron correlaciones significativas para la flota ANC-Tradicional (r = 0,86 y 0,91), mientras que en la flota ANC-Pisco las correlación de la función CBODLRS fue de 0,30 y la AHE fue constante (30 m) para todo el rango de LRS (270 - 396 m).