Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Composition of electricity generation portfolios, pivotal dynamics and market prices

We use a simulation model to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfoliosinfluences wholesale prices. We find that technological diversification generally leads to lower market prices but that the relationship is mediated by the supply to demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of non-linearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to our choice of behavioural parameters and match close-form solutions where those are available.

Endogenous labor market participation and the business cycle

Existing models of equilibrium unemployment with endogenous labor market participation are complex, generate procyclical unemployment rates and cannot match unemployment variability relative to GDP. We embed endogenous participation in a simple, tractable job market matching model, show analytically how variations in the participation rate are driven by the cross-sectional density of home productivity near the participation threshold, andhow this density translates into an extensive-margin labor supply elasticity. A calibration of the model to macro data not only matches employment and participation variabilities but also generates strongly countercyclical unemployment rates. With some wage rigidity the model also matches unemployment variations well. Furthermore, the labor supply elasticity implied by our calibration is consistent with microeconometric evidence for the US.

Giffen goods and market making

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

Auctions of licences and market structure

This paper studies sequential auctions of licences to operate in amarket where those firms that obtain at least one licence then engage ina symmetric market game. I employ a new refinement of Nash equilibrium,the concept of {\sl Markovian recursively undominated equilibrium}.The unique solution satisfies the following properties: (i) when severalfirms own licences before the auction (incumbents), new entrants buylicences in each stage, and (ii) when there is no more than one incumbent,either the single firm preempts entry altogether or entry occurs inevery stage, depending on the parameter configuration.

Wage inequality in a frictional labor market

Wage inequality in the United States has grown substantially in thepast two decades. Standard supply-demand analysis in the empiricsof inequality (e.g.Katz and Murphy (1992)) indicates that we mayattribute some of this trend to an outward shift in the demand forhigh skilled labor. In this paper we examine a simple static channelin which the wage premium for skill may grow -increased firm entry.We consider a model of wage dispersion where there are two types ofworkers and homogeneous firms must set wages and preferences forwhat type of worker they would like to hire. We find that both thewage differential and the demand for high skill workers can increasewith the proportion of high skill workers -these high skill workerstherefore 'create' their own demand without exogenous factors. Inaddition, within group wage inequality can increase in step with thebetween group wage inequality. Simulations of the model are providedin order to compare the findings with empirical results.

The impact of generic reference pricing interventions in the statin market

The objective of this study was to evaluate the intended and unintended impact on pharmaceutical use and sales of three public financing reforms applied to the prescription of statins: a Spanish generic reference pricing (RP) system for lovastatin and simvastatin, and two competing policies introduced by the Andalusian Public Health Service (APHS) for all statins, first a maximum consumer price (MCP) and then a so called quality prescribing incentive for general practitioners (MCP plus PI).This study is designed as an observational, retrospective, interrupted time series analysis with comparison series (APHS and the rest of Spain) of 46 monthly drug use and sales ratios from January 2001 to October 2004 for each active ingredient in the group of statins.RP has been effective at reducing the volume of sales growth of the off-patent statins, yet its overall impact on sales of all statins has been relatively modest. The quantity and volume of sales impact heavily depends on regulatory RP details such as when the system is introduced, how often it is updated, and how the reference price is calculated.

The labor market effects of payroll taxes in a middle-income country: Evidence from Colombia

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the risein payroll tax rates over the 1980 s and 1990 s affected the labor market.Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as aresult of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This 'less-than-full-shifting' islikely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and thepresence of downward wage rigidities induced by a binding minimum wage inColombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted fromemployers to employees, employment should also fall. Our results indicatethat a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between4% and 5%. In addition, we find less shifting and larger disemploymenteffects for production than non-production workers. These results suggestthat policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of low-skill workers byreducing social security taxes on those with low earnings may be effectivein a country like Colombia, especially if tax cuts are targeted to indirectbenefits.

Study of the mechanisms regulating the proliferative potential of human CD8+T lymphocytes over-expressing telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT)

Résumé La plupart des cellules issues du sang ont une durée de vie limitée. Dans les cellules somatiques humaines, y incluant les lymphocytes T, la taille des télomères diminue progressivement à chaque division cellulaire, pouvant aboutir à des instabilités chromosomiques. L'expression ectopique du gène de la transcriptase réverse de la télomérase (hTERT) dans les cellules restaure l'activité de la télomérase, et permet un rallongement de leur vie réplicative. Malgré l'absence de signes caractéristiques de transformation, nous ne savons pas encore si les cellules somatiques qui surexpriment hTERT sont physiologiquement indiscernables des cellules normales. Certaines études récentes proposent que la télomérase joue plusieurs rôles additionnels dans d'autres phénomènes biologiques tels que la réparation de l'ADN, la survie et la croissance des cellules. Dans notre étude, nous avons utilisé des clones issus de lymphocytes T cytotoxiques surexprimant la télomérase afin d'étudier les mécanismes moléculaires qui règlent leur prolifération et leur sénescence. Nous avons montré que les «jeunes » cellules T exprimant ou non hTERT révèlent des taux de croissance identiques suite à des réponses de stimulation induites par des mitogènes. De plus, aucun changement global dans leur expression des gènes n'a pu être mis en évidence. Curieusement, nous avons observé des réponses réduites dans la prolifération des cellules transduites avec la télomérase qui présentaient une élongation des télomères et une durée de vie prolongée. Ces cellules, malgré le maintien d'un niveau élevé de l'expression de gènes impliqués dans la progression du cycle cellulaire, ont également montré une expression accrue de plusieurs gènes trouvés en commun avec nos lymphocytes T vieillissants n'exprimant pas de télomérase. En particulier, les cellules ayant une durée de vie prolongée grâce à l'expression de la télomérase accumulaient également certains inhibiteurs du cycle cellulaire tels que p16Ink4a et p21Cip1, associés à l'arrêt de la croissance cellulaire. En résumé, nos résultats indiquent la présence fonctionnelle de mécanismes alternatifs pouvant contrôler la croissance réplicative de ces cellules; ils sont donc encourageants dans l'optique d'une utilisation à moindre risque de lymphocytes T «immortalisés » à des fins thérapeutiques pour traiter les tumeurs malignes ou les infections. Summary Most mature blood cells have a finite life span. In human somatic cells, including T lymphocytes, telomeres progressively shorten with each cell division eventually leading to chromosomal instability. Ectopic expression of the human telomerase reverse transcriptase (hTERT) gene in cells restores telomerase activity and results in the extension of their replicative life span. Despite lack of transformation characteristics, it is yet unknown whether somatic cells that over-express telomerase are biologically and physiologically indistinguishable from normal cells. Recent data suggest that telomerase might mediate additional functions in DNA repair, cell survival and cell growth. Using CD8+ T lymphocyte clones over-expressing telomerase we investigated the molecular mechanisms that regulate T cell proliferation and senescence. Here we show that early-passage T cell clones transduced or not with hTERT displayed identical growth rates upon mitogenic stimulation and no marked global changes in gene expression. Surprisingly, reduced proliferative responses were observed in hTERT-transduced cells with elongated telomeres and extended life span. These cells, despite maintaining high expression level of genes involved in cell cycle division and progression, also showed increased expression of several genes associated with normal aging T lymphocytes. In particular, late passage T cells over-expressing telomerase accumulated the cyclin-dependent inhibitors p16INK4a and p21CIP1 that have largely been associated with in vitro growth arrest. Whether tumor-reactive CD8+ T cells that ectopically express telomerase could now be used for adoptive transfer therapy in cancer patients remains unclear at this point. Nevertheless, our results regarding the safe and effective use of hTERT-transduced lymphocytes are encouraging, since they indicate that alternative growth arrest mechanisms such as p 16 and p21 are still functional in these cells and regulate to some extend their growth potential.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Has something changed with the EMU?

This paper presents evidence that the existence of deposit and lending facilities combined with an averaging provision for the reserve requirement are powerful tools to stabilize the overnight rate. We reach this conclusion by comparing the behavior of this rate in Germany before and after thestart of Stage III of the EMU. The analysis of the German experience is useful because it allows us to isolate the effects on the overnight rate of these particular instruments of monetary policy. To show that this outcome is a general conclusion and not a particular result of the German market, we develop a theoretical model of reserve management which isable to reproduce our empirical findings.

Effects of employment protection and product market regulations on the Italian labor market

Labor market regulations have often being blamed for high and persistentunemployment in Europe, but evidence on their impact remains mixed. Morerecently, attention has turned to the impact of product market regulationson employment growth. This paper analyzes how labor and product marketregulations interact to affect turnover and employment. We present a matchingmodel which illustrates how barriers to entry in the product market mitigatethe impact of labor market deregulation. We, then, use the Italian SocialSecurity employer-employee panel to study the interaction between barriersto entry and dismissal costs. We exploit the fact that costs for unjustdismissals in Italy increased for firms below 15 employees relative to biggerfirms after 1990. We find that the increase in dismissal costs after 1990decreased accessions and separations in small relative to big firms,especially for women. Moreover, consistent with our model, we find evidencethat the increase in dismissal costs had smaller effects on turnover for womenin sectors faced with strict product market regulations.

Location models for ceding market share and shrinking services

New location models are presented here for exploring the reduction of facilities in aregion. The first of these models considers firms ceding market share to competitorsunder situations of financial exigency. The goal of this model is to cede the leastmarket share, i.e., retain as much of the customer base as possible while sheddingcostly outlets. The second model considers a firm essentially without competition thatmust shrink it services for economic reasons. This firm is assumed to close outlets sothat the degradation of service is limited. An example is offered within a competitiveenvironment to demonstrate the usefulness of this modeling approach.

The impact of firing costs on turnover and unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian labour market reform

Reductions in firing costs are often advocated as a way of increasingthe dynamism of labour markets in both developed and less developed countries. Evidence from Europe and the U.S. on the impact of firing costs has, however, been mixed. Moreover, legislative changes both in Europe and the U.S. have been limited. This paper, instead, examines the impact of the Colombian Labour Market Reform of 1990, which substantially reduced dismissal costs. I estimate the incidence of a reduction in firing costs on worker turnover by exploiting the temporal change in the Colombian labour legislation as well as the variability in coverage between formal and informal sector workers. Using a grouping estimator to control for common aggregate shocks and selection, I find that the exit hazard rates into and out of unemployment increased after the reform by over 1% for formal workers (covered by the legislation) relative to informal workers (uncovered). The increase of the hazards implies a net decrease in unemployment of a third of a percentage point, which accounts for about one quarter of the fall in unemployment during the period of study.

Trade, extent of the market and economic growth 1960-1996

We find that trade and domestic market size are robust determinants of economic growth overthe 1960-1996 period when trade openness is measured as the US dollar value of imports andexports relative to GDP in PPP US$ ('real openness'). When trade openness is measured asthe US dollar value of imports and exports relative to GDP in exchange rate US$ ('nominalopenness') however, trade and the size of domestic markets are often non-robust determinantsof growth. We argue that real openness is the more appropriate measure of trade and that ourempirical results should be seen as evidence in favor of the extent-of-the-market hypothesis.