Model risk in the pricing of exotic options

The growth experimented in recent years in both the variety and volume of structured products implies that banks and other financial institutions have become increasingly exposed to model risk. In this article we focus on the model risk associated with the local volatility (LV) model and with the Variance Gamma (VG) model. The results show that the LV model performs better than the VG model in terms of its ability to match the market prices of European options. Nevertheless, both models are subject to significant pricing errors when compared with the stochastic volatility framework.

Volatility forecasting with range models: An evaluation of new alternatives to the CARR model

The aim of this paper is to analyze the forecasting ability of the CARR model proposed by Chou (2005) using the S&P 500. We extend the data sample, allowing for the analysis of different stock market circumstances and propose the use of various range estimators in order to analyze their forecasting performance. Our results show that there are two range-based models that outperform the forecasting ability of the GARCH model. The Parkinson model is better for upward trends and volatilities which are higher and lower than the mean while the CARR model is better for downward trends and mean volatilities.

Malaria transmission model for different levels of acquired immunity and temperature-dependent parameters (vector)

OBJECTIVE: Describe the overall transmission of malaria through a compartmental model, considering the human host and mosquito vector. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed based on the following parameters: human host immunity, assuming the existence of acquired immunity and immunological memory, which boosts the protective response upon reinfection; mosquito vector, taking into account that the average period of development from egg to adult mosquito and the extrinsic incubation period of parasites (transformation of infected but non-infectious mosquitoes into infectious mosquitoes) are dependent on the ambient temperature. RESULTS: The steady state equilibrium values obtained with the model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio in terms of the model's parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The model allowed the calculation of the basic reproduction ratio, one of the most important epidemiological variables.

Thinking over b‐learning strategy: the MIPO model approach

This article describes the main research results in a new methodology, in which the stages and strategies of the technology integration process are identified and described. A set of principles and recommendations are therefore presented. The MIPO model described in this paper is a result of the effort made regarding the understanding of the main success features of good practices, in the web environment, integrated in the information systems/information technology context. The initial model has been created, based on experiences and literature review. After that, it was tested in the information and technology system units at higher school and also adapted as a result of four cycles of an actionresearch work combined with a case study research. The information, concepts and procedures presented here give support to teachers and instructors, instructional designers and planning teams – anyone who wants to develop effective b‐learning instructions.

Portugal making a difference with children and families: the GADIF model

Portugal is a culture grounded in strong traditions and family. Yet, social changes like women returning to the workforce and a decreas ed national birth rate are impacting the traditional family structure and care giving environments of children. Female employment has been increasing steadily in P ortugal over the last three decades (Galego & Pereira, 2006) and the total fert ility rate decreasing from 4.1 to 2.8 (INE, 2006). Furthermore, extended family me mbers, like grandparents, no longer reside close by to their children and grandc hildren as in the past, because of a changing labor market. Many of the younger gen eration are leaving their rural communities to flock to urban areas because o f job opportunities, leaving behind older relatives who would have otherwise par ticipated in the daily care of children. Given these social and economic changes, children are spending more time in out-of-home care with non-familial caregive rs. Yet, government regulations and guidelines in early care and educat ion (ECCE) and early intervention (EI) are only just emerging; it contin ues to be a work in progress.

Quantificação da difusão na ressonância magnética da mama: ADC e Kurtosis

Mestrado em Radiações Aplicadas às Tecnologias da Saúde. Área de especialização: Ressonância Magnética

A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

Difusão molecular em ressonância magnética para estudo de lesões mamárias malignas

Objetivos – Com este estudo pretendeu-se i) avaliar o contributo da aplicação da sequência de difusão na caracterização das lesões mamárias malignas; ii) considerar se a sequência de difusão deve incorporar o protocolo standard em RM mamária e iii) correlacionar os resultados dos valores de coeficiente aparente de difusão (ADC) e os resultados histológicos. Metodologia – A amostra incluiu 18 pacientes do sexo feminino, com idades compreendidas entre 38 e 71 anos, que apresentavam lesões mamárias malignas confirmadas histologicamente. Foi adicionado ao protocolo de RM mamária a sequência de difusão, de modo a calcular os valores de ADC das lesões observadas. Resultados – Verificou-se que a range de valores de ADC para lesões malignas em ROI’s calculados no centro da lesão apresentavam uma média e desvio-padrão de (0,89 ± 0,14x10-3mm2/s). O método da utilização dos valores de ADC na caracterização de lesões mamárias malignas demonstrou uma sensibilidade de 100%. Conclusões – Neste estudo, com uma sensibilidade de 100%, a ponderação em difusão demonstrou ser uma técnica vantajosa na caracterização de lesões mamárias malignas pelo que se sugere a sua introdução no protocolo standard da RM mamária. ABSTRACT - Aims – The aim of this study was i) to evaluate the potential of the DWI sequence in the characterization of malignant breast lesions; ii) to verify if this sequence should incorporate the breast MRI protocol and iii) to correlate the apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) values and histological results. Methodology – The sample includes 18 female patients between the ages of 38 and 71 years, who presented with malignant breast lesion confirmed by histology. The DWI sequence was added to the MRI standard protocol to calculate the ADC values. Results – In the results obtained we observed that the range of the ADC values calculated in the center of the malignant lesions, showed a mean and standard deviation of 0.89 ± 0.14 x10-3 mm2 / s. This method of using the ADC values for the detection of malignant lesions showed a sensitivity of 100%. Conclusion – The DWI technique proved to be a useful method in the characterization of malignant breast lesions, as it showed a sensitivity of 100%, so we suggest its inclusion in the Breast MR standard protocol.

Quantificação por imagem ponderada em difusão (DWI) das lesões tumorais da mama

Introdução – A técnica de Difusão por Ressonância Magnética (RM), ao avaliar o movimento das moléculas de água nos tecidos, permite inferir sobre a arquitetura dos mesmos, em particular relativamente à celularidade, volume celular e permeabilidade das membranas. O Coeficiente de Difusão Aparente (ADC) é um parâmetro quantificável da imagem ponderada em difusão (DWI). A sua análise poderá fornecer informação clínica adicional sobre estas lesões, sobretudo em relação à sua caracterização histológica. Objetivos – Caracterizar e diferenciar tipos e alguns subtipos de lesões mamárias através da análise do ADC. Metodologia – 20 Mulheres com 23 lesões mamárias foram submetidas a RM mamária: 3 lesões benignas (3 Fibroadenomas-FA) e 20 malignas (16 Carcinomas Ductais Invasivos-CDI, 2 Carcinomas Ductais In Situ-CDIS e 2 Carcinomas Invasivos Lobulares-CLI). Num equipamento 1.5T aplicou-se uma sequência de Difusão (b=0,50,250,500,750,1000 s/mm2). Obteve-se o ADC através do ajuste exponencial da intensidade de sinal das lesões em função do valor de b, fazendo-se corresponder os valores de ADC à respetiva caracterização histológica e posterior comparação com a literatura. Resultados e Discussão – As lesões malignas apresentaram ADCs significativamente (p=0,014) inferiores [(0,94±0,22)x10-3 mm2/s] aos das benignas [(1,43±0,25)x10-3 mm2/s]. A justificação pode residir no aumento da celularidade e consequente restrição da Difusão que se observa nas lesões malignas. Os CDI apresentaram ADCs baixos [(0,88±0,17)x10-3 mm2/s], enquanto que os CDIS apresentaram ADCs mais elevados [(1,33±0,29)x10-3 mm2/s]. Estes resultados estão de acordo com o facto dos CDIS estarem limitados aos ductos mamários, mantendo-se menos alterada a estrutura do tecido adjacente e resultando numa menor restrição à difusão que nos CDI. Verificaram-se diferenças significativas entre FA e CDI (p=0,010) e entre CDI e CDIS (p=0,049). Conclusões – O ADC possibilita a diferenciação entre lesões mamárias benignas e malignas, bem como entre alguns tipos histológicos. O desenvolvimento deste conceito pode representar um avanço no papel da RM na avaliação destas neoplasias. ABSTRACT - Introduction – The Magnetic Resonance (MR) diffusion technique measures the movement of water molecules in tissues. Therefore, it provides useful information about tissue architecture, specially regarding tissue cellularity, cell volume and membrane permeability. The quantification of diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) data is done by measuring the so-called. Apparent Diffusion Coefficient (ADC). This parameter provides additional clinical information about breast lesions, and potentially allows for in-vivo histological characterization. Purpose – To characterize and differentiate breast lesions through ADC analysis. Methodology – The study comprised 20 women, with 23 breast lesions: 3 benign lesions - 3 Fibroadenomas (FA); and 20 malignant - 16 Invasive Ductal Carcinomas (CDI), 2 Ductal Carcinomas In Situ (CDIS), 2 Invasive Lobular Carcinoma (CLI). On a 1.5T equipment a diffusion-weighted sequence with 6 b-values (b=0,50,250,500,750,1000 s/mm2) was used to examine the patients. ADC was obtained by fitting an exponential to data of lesion signal intensity vs. b values. A correspondence of ADC values to histological lesion characterization was done and finally, the results were comparison with the literature. Results and Discussion – Malignant lesions showed inferior ADCs significantly (p=0.014) lower ((0.94±0.22)x10-3 mm2/s) than the benign lesions ((1.43±0.25)x10-3 mm2/s). This may be associated to increasead cellularity in malignant lesions, which result in higher tissue restriction to diffusion. CDI showed low ADC values ((0.88±0.17)x10-3 mm2/s), while the CDIS showed higher ADCs ((1.33±0.29)x10-3 mm2/s). These results agree with the fact that CDIS are limited to mammary ducts, maintaining a less altered neighboring tissue structure, which results in a lower restriction to diffusion than observed in CDI. Significant differences between FA and CDI (p=0.010) and between CDI and CDIS (p=0.049) were observed. Conclusion – The ADC parameter is able to differentiate between malignant and benign breast lesions, as well as between some histological types.

Two-Higgs-doublet model in light of the standard model H -> tau(+)tau(-) search at the LHC

We study the implications of the searches based on H -> tau(+)tau-by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations on the parameter space of the two-Higgs-doublet model (2HDM). In the 2HDM, the scalars can decay into a tau pair with a branching ratio larger than the SM one, leading to constraints on the 2HDM parameter space. We show that in model II, values of tan beta > 1.8 are definitively excluded if the pseudoscalar is in the mass range 110 GeV < m(A) < 145 GeV. We have also discussed the implications for the 2HDM of the recent dimuon search by the ATLAS collaboration for a CP-odd scalar in the mass range 4-12 GeV.

Fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death

OBJECTIVE: To introduce a fuzzy linguistic model for evaluating the risk of neonatal death. METHODS: The study is based on the fuzziness of the variables newborn birth weight and gestational age at delivery. The inference used was Mamdani's method. Neonatologists were interviewed to estimate the risk of neonatal death under certain conditions and to allow comparing their opinions and the model values. RESULTS: The results were compared with experts' opinions and the Fuzzy model was able to capture the expert knowledge with a strong correlation (r=0.96). CONCLUSIONS: The linguistic model was able to estimate the risk of neonatal death when compared to experts' performance.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identificação de compostos que modulam a patogénese da doença de Machado-Joseph em C.elegans: autofagia como alvo terapêutico: identification of small compounds that modulate pathogenesis of Machado-Joseph disease in a C.elegans model: targeting autophagy

A doença de Machado-Joseph (DMJ) ou ataxia espinocerebelosa do tipo 3 (SCA3), conhecida por ser a mais comum das ataxias hereditárias dominantes em todo o mundo, é uma doença neurodegenerativa autossómica dominante que leva a uma grande incapacidade motora, embora sem alterar o intelecto, culminando com a morte do doente. Atualmente não existe nenhum tratamento eficaz para esta doença. A DMJ é resultado de uma alteração genética causada pela expansão de uma sequência poliglutamínica (poliQ), na região C-terminal do gene que codifica a proteína ataxina-3 (ATXN3). Os mecanismos celulares das doenças de poliglutaminas que provocam toxicidade, bem como a função da ATXN3, não são ainda totalmente conhecidos. Neste trabalho, usamos, pela sua simplicidade e potencial genético, um pequeno animal invertebrado, o nemátode C. elegans, com o objetivo de identificar fármacos eficazes para o combate contra a patogénese da DMJ, analisando simultaneamente o seu efeito na agregação da ATXN3 mutante nas células neuronais in vivo e o seu impacto no comportamento motor dos animais. Este pequeno invertebrado proporciona grandes vantagens no estudo dos efeitos tóxicos de proteínas poliQ nos neurónios, uma vez que a transparência das suas 959 células (das quais 302 são neurónios) facilita a deteção de proteínas fluorescentes in vivo. Para além disso, esta espécie tem um ciclo de vida curto, é económica e de fácil manutenção. Neste trabalho testámos no nosso modelo transgénico da DMJ com 130Qs em C.elegans dois compostos potencialmente moduladores da agregação da ATXN3 mutante e da resultante disfunção neurológica, atuando pela via da autofagia. De modo a validar a possível importância terapêutica da ativação da autofagia os compostos candidatos escolhidos foram o Litío e o análogo da Rapamicina CCI-779, testados independentemente e em combinação. A neuroproteção conferida pelo Litío e pelo CCI-779 independentemente sugere que o uso destes fármacos possa ser considerado uma boa estratégia como terapia para a DMJ, a testar em organismos evolutivamente mais próximos do humano. A manipulação da autofagia, segundo vários autores, parece ser benéfica e pode ser a chave para o desenvolvimento de novos tratamentos para várias doenças relacionadas com a agregação proteica e o envelhecimento.

Abelian symmetries in the two-Higgs-doublet model with fermions

We classify all possible implementations of an Abelian symmetry in the two-Higgs-doublet model with fermions. We identify those symmetries which are consistent with nonvanishing quark masses and a Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa quark-mixing matrix (CKM), which is not block-diagonal. Our analysis takes us from a plethora of possibilities down to 246 relevant cases, requiring only 34 distinct matrix forms. We show that applying Z(n) with n >= 4 to the scalar sector leads to a continuous U(1) symmetry in the whole Lagrangian. Finally, we address the possibilities of spontaneous CP violation and of natural suppression of the flavor-changing neutral currents. We explain why our work is relevant even for non-Abelian symmetries.

Conceptual model for decomposing the value for the customer

Value has been defined in different theoretical contexts as need, desire, interest, standard /criteria, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. The creation of value is key to any business, and any business activity is about exchanging some tangible and/or intangible good or service and having its value accepted and rewarded by customers or clients, either inside the enterprise or collaborative network or outside. “Perhaps surprising then is that firms often do not know how to define value, or how to measure it” (Anderson and Narus, 1998 cited by [1]). Woodruff echoed that we need “richer customer value theory” for providing an “important tool for locking onto the critical things that managers need to know”. In addition, he emphasized, “we need customer value theory that delves deeply into customer’s world of product use in their situations” [2]. In this sense, we proposed and validated a novel “Conceptual Model for Decomposing the Value for the Customer”. To this end, we were aware that time has a direct impact on customer perceived value, and the suppliers’ and customers’ perceptions change from the pre-purchase to the post-purchase phases, causing some uncertainty and doubts.We wanted to break down value into all its components, as well as every built and used assets (both endogenous and/or exogenous perspectives). This component analysis was then transposed into a mathematical formulation using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so that the uncertainty and vagueness of value perceptions could be embedded in this model that relates used and built assets in the tangible and intangible deliverable exchange among the involved parties, with their actual value perceptions.