Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Consumers’ sensory acceptability of pork from immunocastrated male pigs

Boar taint is the off-odour or off flavour of cooked pork. Currently, the most common method of controlling boar taint is surgical castration. However, immunocastration has been used in some parts of the world as an alternative to surgical castration. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensory acceptability of meat from immunocastrated pigs (IM) compared with meat from females (FE), surgically castrated (CM) and entire males (EM). Twenty animals of each type were evaluated by 201 consumers in 20 sessions. Longissimus thoracis muscle of the different animals was cooked in an oven at 180 °C for 10 min. Consumers scored the odour and the flavour of the meat in a 9-point category scale without an intermediate level. There were no significant differences in consumer’s evaluation of meat from IM, CM, and FE. In contrast, EM meat presented a higher percentage of dissatisfied scores and was significantly (P & 0.05) less accepted than meat from CM, IM and FE. Consumers’ acceptability of EM meat was always lower, independently of its androstenone levels. However meat with low levels of androstenone was more accepted that meat with medium or high levels of this substance. It can be concluded that immunocastration produced pork that was accepted by the consumers, and was indistinguishable from pork from CM or FE.

Notes on the male genitalia of species of Ravinia and Chaetoravinia (Diptera: Sarcophagidae)

Based on scanning electron microscope (SEM) estudies, the male genitalia of three species of Ravinia and two species of Chaetoravinia (Diptera: Sarcophagidae, subtribe Raviniina) are described and compared.

From Bretton Woods to inflation targeting: financial change and monetary policy evolution in Europe

Different ‘monetary architectures’ are distinguished, as a background to a discussion of the change in developed country monetary policy frameworks from fixed exchange rates under the Bretton Woods international monetary system to, ultimately, formal or informal inflation targeting. The introduction and experience of monetary targets in the 1970s is considered, followed by an analysis of the changes in countries’ monetary architectures, with particular reference to money and bond markets and to France and Italy, in the 1980s. Exchange rate targeting in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s is examined, followed by the changes in central bank independence in the 1990s. This leads to a discussion of the introduction of inflation targeting, and the issues raised for inflation targeting by the financial crisis of the late 2000s.

99mTc-sestamibi imaging and bone marrow karyotyping in the assessment of multiple myeloma and MGUS

AIM: The first pathogenetic step in multiple myeloma is the emergence of a limited number of clonal plasma cells, clinically known as monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Patients with MGUS do not have symptoms or end-organ damage but they do have a 1% annual risk of progression to multiple myeloma or related malignant disorders. With progression of MGUS to multiple myeloma, complex genetic events occur in the neoplastic plasma cell. Karyotyping and fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) were shown to be of prognostic value in patients with multiple myeloma. Tc-sestamibi imaging reflects myeloma disease activity in bone marrow with very high sensitivity and specificity predicting disease evolution. This study was undertaken to evaluate the role of Tc-sestamibi imaging and cytogenetic analysis in prognosis prediction of MGUS and multiple myeloma. METHODS: We enrolled 30 consecutive patients with a confirmed diagnosis of multiple myeloma or MGUS. Bone marrow biopsy and biochemical staging according to the International Staging System (ISS) were performed in all cases. Karyotype analysis and FISH were performed in 11 of 12 patients with MGUS and in 17 of 18 patients with multiple myeloma having adequate metaphases. RESULTS: The karyotype was abnormal in four of 11 MGUS and in six of 17 multiple myeloma. Abnormalities of chromosome 13 were present in one case of MGUS and in six cases of multiple myeloma whereas the involvement of immunoglobulin was observed in one case of multiple myeloma. An abnormal FISH panel was found in four MGUS and nine multiple myeloma patients. All patients with MGUS showed a normal MIBI scan (score 0). Among patients with multiple myeloma only three, all with ISS stage I, showed a normal scan while a positive scan was obtained in others (score range, 1-7). The MIBI uptake was strongly related to the bone marrow plasma cell infiltration and to cytogenetic abnormalities. Particularly, a MIBI uptake score above 5 identified patients with poor prognosis encompassing all stage III multiple myeloma and three of seven stage II multiple myeloma. On the other hand all stage I and II patients having a MIBI score less than 5 showed a good prognosis. CONCLUSION: Both cytogenetic analysis and a MIBI scan add no relevant prognostic information to the ISS in patients with stage I and III multiple myeloma. The MIBI scan was of prognostic value in stage II multiple myeloma patients. Additionally, MIBI imaging may be useful to guide bone marrow biopsy in order to obtain adequate samples for cytogenetic analysis.

The evolution of inbred social systems in spiders and other organisms: from short-term gains to long-term evolutionary dead-ends?

The question of why some social systems have evolved close inbreeding is particularly intriguing given expected short- and long-term negative effects of this breeding system. Using social spiders as a case study, we quantitatively show that the potential costs of avoiding inbreeding through dispersal and solitary living could have outweighed the costs of inbreeding depression in the origin of inbred spider sociality. We further review the evidence that despite being favored in the short term, inbred spider sociality may constitute in the long run an evolutionary dead end. We also review other cases, such as the naked mole rats and some bark and ambrosia beetles, mites, psocids, thrips, parasitic ants, and termites, in which inbreeding and sociality are associated and the evidence for and against this breeding system being, in general, an evolutionary dead end.

Male dominance linked to size and age, but not to 'good genes' in brown trout (Salmo trutta).

BACKGROUND: Males that are successful in intra-sexual competition are often assumed to be of superior quality. In the mating system of most salmonid species, intensive dominance fights are common and the winners monopolise most mates and sire most offspring. We drew a random sample of mature male brown trout (Salmo trutta) from two wild populations and determined their dominance hierarchy or traits linked to dominance. The fish were then stripped and their sperm was used for in vitro fertilisations in two full-factorial breeding designs. We recorded embryo viability until hatching in both experiments, and juvenile survival during 20 months after release into a natural streamlet in the second experiment. Since offspring of brown trout get only genes from their fathers, we used offspring survival as a quality measure to test (i) whether males differ in their genetic quality, and if so, (ii) whether dominance or traits linked to dominance reveal 'good genes'. RESULTS: We found significant additive genetic variance on embryo survival, i.e. males differed in their genetic quality. Older, heavier and larger males were more successful in intra-sexual selection. However, neither dominance nor dominance indicators like body length, weight or age were significantly linked to genetic quality measured as embryo or juvenile survival. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that females can improve their offspring's genetic viability by mating with large and dominant males. If there still were advantages of mating with dominant males, they may be linked to non-genetic benefits or to genetic advantages that are context dependent and therefore possibly not revealed under our experimental conditions - even if we found significant additive genetic variation for embryo viability under such conditions.

Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE

PECUBE is a three-dimensional thermal-kinematic code capable of solving the heat production-diffusion-advection equation under a temporally varying surface boundary condition. It was initially developed to assess the effects of time-varying surface topography (relief) on low-temperature thermochronological datasets. Thermochronometric ages are predicted by tracking the time-temperature histories of rock-particles ending up at the surface and by combining these with various age-prediction models. In the decade since its inception, the PECUBE code has been under continuous development as its use became wider and addressed different tectonic-geomorphic problems. This paper describes several major recent improvements in the code, including its integration with an inverse-modeling package based on the Neighborhood Algorithm, the incorporation of fault-controlled kinematics, several different ways to address topographic and drainage change through time, the ability to predict subsurface (tunnel or borehole) data, prediction of detrital thermochronology data and a method to compare these with observations, and the coupling with landscape-evolution (or surface-process) models. Each new development is described together with one or several applications, so that the reader and potential user can clearly assess and make use of the capabilities of PECUBE. We end with describing some developments that are currently underway or should take place in the foreseeable future. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genotype 3 is associated with rapid histological progression in chronic HCV infection

While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of the present study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. Methods: We identified 1540 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one liver biopsy prior to antiviral treatment. Factors associated with fibrosis stage, steatosis and histological activity were assessed in univariate and multivariate regression models. Fibrosis progression rate per year was calculated in a subgroup of 1263 patients, in whom risk factors were assessed by cumulative incidence curves, logistic and linear regression models. Results: Independent risk factors for rapid fibrosis progression included male sex (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.25-2.21, P <0.001), age at infection (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.06-1.10, P <0.001), histological activity (OR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.61-2.85, P <0.001) and genotype 3 (OR = 1.97, 95% CI 1.43-2.72, P <0.001). Genotype 2 was associated with slow progression (OR = 0.51, 95% CI 0.30-0.89, P = 0.02), but this observation may be due to the decreased prevalence of genotype 2 over the last decades, leading to an overrepresentation of subjects with genotype 2 with a slow progression rate. Conclusion: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis. While assessing risk factors for fibrosis progression, the changing epidemiology of HCV genotypes over time needs to be taken into account.

The current molecular phylogeny of Eutherian mammals challenges previous interpretations of placental evolution.

Based on histology, the placentae of eutherians are currently grouped in epitheliochorial, endotheliochorial and haemochorial placentae. In a haeckelian sense, the epitheliochorial contact with marked histiotrophic feeding by uterine milk is generally considered as primitive, especially since similar contacts exist in Marsupials. In contrast, the more intimate endotheliochorial and haemochorial contact, facilitating haemotrophic nutrition, is interpreted as a derived state. A cladistic analysis based on the phylogenetic relationships established by molecular analyses reveals that the basic clades are all characterized by an endotheliochorial or haemochorial placenta, and that the epitheliochorial placenta evolved at least three times in a convergent manner. This evolution may be explained by the fact that the epitheliochorial placenta in eutherians is more efficient in nutritional transfer (flow rate by exchange surface). Moreover, this arrangement may confer an advantage to the mother who can probably reduce the degree of manipulation by a genetically imprinted embryo.

Evolution of endurance during a multidisciplinary treatment of chronic low back pain and its influence of work capacity

Introduction: Low back pain is a common disorder touching up to 80% of the population, with redundancies of up to 70%. A small proportion would go on to develop chronic low back pain (LBP) with reduced work capacity and they would count for the majority of the costs. Up to day, a multi-disciplinary treatment program is one of the best approaches. In the program one of the mile-stones is restoration of function. The aim of this study was to follow patients, according to the endurance change after the program and its influence on workability during one year after inclusion in a such program. Method: Patients were following a multidisciplinary treatment for 3 weeks including physiotherapy, occupation measures combined with an educational program with behavioural and psychological interventions on an outpatient program. We studied the endurance with the help of the Bruce test, accomplished at the beginning and at the end of the program. On the other hand the patients filled out pain questionnaires and PACT score according their own impression on workability. Results: There were a clear relation between the increase in the cardiovascular endurance and the increased workability. Almost every patient presented an increase in the VO2 max, even though the workability did not follow. This increase were associated with a decrease in pain apprehension. Conclusion: A multidisciplinary treatment program, teaching the patients how to care with their pain and to accept it even if it persist is successful in lowering the global pain. If the program allows the patients to strengthen the endurance, the workability will increase in parallel. In this way the patients were able to reduce the consummation of medicaments and to increase the work capacity.

Transitions in social complexity along elevational gradients reveal a combined impact of season length and development time on social evolution.

Eusociality is taxonomically rare, yet associated with great ecological success. Surprisingly, studies of environmental conditions favouring eusociality are often contradictory. Harsh conditions associated with increasing altitude and latitude seem to favour increased sociality in bumblebees and ants, but the reverse pattern is found in halictid bees and polistine wasps. Here, we compare the life histories and distributions of populations of 176 species of Hymenoptera from the Swiss Alps. We show that differences in altitudinal distributions and development times among social forms can explain these contrasting patterns: highly social taxa develop more quickly than intermediate social taxa, and are thus able to complete the reproductive cycle in shorter seasons at higher elevations. This dual impact of altitude and development time on sociality illustrates that ecological constraints can elicit dynamic shifts in behaviour, and helps explain the complex distribution of sociality across ecological gradients.

Delinquency in male adolescents: the role of alexithymia and family structure

The purpose of this study was to examine the linkages between alexithymia and delinquency in male adolescents (age ranging from 14 to 18 years), and to investigate whether alexithymia was a good discriminatory factor for juvenile delinquency. Thirty-six offender adolescents and 46 non-offender control adolescents participated in the study and completed the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20) (alexithymia), the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale (R-CMAS) (anxiety), the Liste d'Adjectifs Bipolaires et en Echelles de Likert (LABEL) (personality-Big Five) and demographic data. Findings revealed that the adolescents of the offender group scored high on alexithymia and that proportion of disrupted family structure in the offender group is higher than in the control group. Logistic regressions confirmed that alexithymia and family structure are the strongest discriminatory factors for juvenile delinquency. Limitations and clinical implications are discussed, and recommendations for future research are provided

Structure of the salivary glands of the unfed male tick Amblyomma cajennense (Fabricius) (Acarina: Ixodidae)

Acini in the salivary glands of unfed male Amblyomma cajennense of different ages, were studied. The salivary glands consist of one agranular and three granular acini types. The agranular acini are directly attached to the medial and anterior portion of the main salivary duct, and to some branches of the secondary ducts. A large, clear, central cell occupies the centre and this cell is in contact with the acinar lumen. There is no valve to the lumen. Granular acini consist of approximately six to fourteen cells (type II acini) or eight to thirteen (type III acini). The type II acini have three types of granular cells ("a", "b" and "c") and a valve: the type III acini have three types of granular cells ("d", "e" and "f" and a valve.