A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

Quantifying stresses and support requirements in the undercut and production level drifts of block and panel caving mines

A numerical modelling strategy has been developed in order to quantify the magnitude of induced stresses at the boundaries of production level and undercut level drifts for various in situ stress environments and undercut scenarios. The results of the stress modelling were in line with qualitative experiential guidelines and a limited number of induced stress measurements documented from caving sites. A number of stress charts were developed which quantify the maximum boundary stresses in drift roofs for varying in situ stress regimes, depths and undercut scenarios. This enabled many of the experiential guidelines to be quantified and bounded. A limited number of case histories of support and support performance in cave mine drifts were compared to support recommendations using the NGI classification system, The stress charts were used to estimate the Stress Reduction Factor for this system. The back-analyses suggested that the NGI classification system might be able to give preliminary estimates of support requirements in caving mines with modifications relating to rock bolt length and the support of production level intersections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Pea rms6 mutants exhibit increased basal branching

Our studies on two branching mutants of pea (Pisum sativum L.) have identified a further Ramosus locus, Rms6, with two recessive or partially recessive mutant alleles: rms6-1 (type line S2-271) and rms6-2 (type line K586). Mutants rms6-1 and rms6-2 were derived from dwarf and tall cultivars, Solara and Torsdag, respectively. The rms6 mutants are characterized by increased branching from basal nodes. In contrast, mutants rms1 through rms5 have increased branching from both basal and aerial (upper stem) nodes. Buds at the cotyledonary node of wild-type (WT) plants remain dormant but in rms6 plants these buds were usually released from dormancy. Their growth was either subsequently inhibited, sometimes even prior to emergence above ground, or they grew into secondary stems. The mutant phenotype was strongest for rms6-1 on the dwarf background. Although rms6-2 had a weak single-mutant phenotype, the rms3-1 rms6-2 double mutant showed clear transgression and an additive branching phenotype, with a total lateral length almost 2-fold greater than rms3-1 and nearly 5-fold greater than rms6-2 . Grafting studies between WT and rms6-1 plants demonstrated the primary action of Rms6 may be confined to the shoot. Young WT and rms6-1 shoots had similar auxin levels, and decapitated plants had a similar magnitude of response to applied auxin. Abscisic acid levels were elevated 2-fold at node 2 of young rms6-1 plants. The Rms6 locus mapped to the R to Gp segment of linkage group V (chromosome 3). The rms6 mutants will be useful for basic research and also have possible agronomical value.

Interaction between natural and sexual selection during the evolution of mate recognition

The interaction between natural and sexual selection is central to many theories of how mate choice and reproductive isolation evolve, but their joint effect on the evolution of mate recognition has not, to my knowledge, been investigated in an evolutionary experiment. Natural and sexual selection were manipulated in interspecific hybrid populations of Drosophila to determine their effects on the evolution of a mate recognition system comprised of cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs). The effect of natural selection in isolation indicated that CHCs were costly for males and females to produce. The effect of sexual selection in isolation indicated that females preferred males with a particular CHC composition. However, the interaction between natural and sexual selection had a greater effect on the evolution of the mate recognition system than either process in isolation. When natural and sexual selection were permitted to operate in combination, male CHCs became exaggerated to a greater extent than in the presence of sexual selection alone, and female CHCs evolved against the direction of natural selection. This experiment demonstrated that the interaction between natural and sexual selection is critical in determining the direction and magnitude of the evolutionary response of the mate recognition system.

Genetic and environmental contributions to cannabis dependence in a national young adult twin sample

Background. This paper examines genetic and environmental contributions to risk of cannabis dependence. Method. Symptoms of cannabis dependence and measures of social, family and individual risk factors were assessed in a sample of 6265 young adult male and female Australian twins born 1964-1971. Results. Symptoms of cannabis dependence were common: 11(.)0% of sample (15(.)1% of men and 7(.)8% of women) reported two or more symptoms of dependence. Correlates of cannabis dependence included educational attainment, exposure to parental conflict, sexual abuse, major depression, social anxiety and childhood conduct disorder. However, even after control for the effects of these factors, there was evidence of significant genetic effects on risk of cannabis dependence. Standard genetic modelling indicated that 44(.)7% (95% CI = 15-72(.)2) of the variance in liability to cannabis dependence could be accounted for by genetic factors, 20(.)1% (95 CI = 0-43(.)6) could be attributed to shared environment factors and 35(.)3% (95% CI = 26(.)4-45(.)7) could be attributed to non-shared environmental factors. However, while there was no evidence of significant gender differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences, a model which assumed both genetic and shared environmental influences on risks of cannabis dependence among men and shared environmental but no genetic influences among women provided an equally good fit to the data. Conclusions. There was consistent evidence that genetic risk factors are important determinants of risk of cannabis dependence among men. However, it remains uncertain whether there are genetic influences on liability to cannabis dependence among women.

Maintaining muscle mass during extended disuse: Aestivating frogs as a model species

Prolonged muscle disuse in vertebrates can lead to a pathological change resulting in muscle wasting and a loss of muscle strength. In this paper, we review muscle disuse atrophy in the vertebrates and examine the factors that influence the magnitude of the atrophic response during extended periods of inactivity, both artificially imposed (e.g. limb immobilisation) and naturally occurring, such as the quiescence associated with dormancy (e.g. hibernation and aestivation). The severity of muscle atrophy is positively correlated with mass-specific metabolic rate, and the metabolic depression that occurs during dormancy would appear to have a protective role, reducing or preventing muscle atrophy despite periods of inactivity lasting 6-9 months. In the light of these findings, the role of reactive oxygen species and antioxidants during muscle disuse is emphasised.

Bayesian feedback versus Markovian feedback in a two-level atom

We compare two different approaches to the control of the dynamics of a continuously monitored open quantum system. The first is Markovian feedback, as introduced in quantum optics by Wiseman and Milburn [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 548 (1993)]. The second is feedback based on an estimate of the system state, developed recently by Doherty and Jacobs [Phys. Rev. A 60, 2700 (1999)]. Here we choose to call it, for brevity, Bayesian feedback. For systems with nonlinear dynamics, we expect these two methods of feedback control to give markedly different results. The simplest possible nonlinear system is a driven and damped two-level atom, so we choose this as our model system. The monitoring is taken to be homodyne detection of the atomic fluorescence, and the control is by modulating the driving. The aim of the feedback in both cases is to stabilize the internal state of the atom as close as possible to an arbitrarily chosen pure state, in the presence of inefficient detection and other forms of decoherence. Our results (obtained without recourse to stochastic simulations) prove that Bayesian feedback is never inferior, and is usually superior, to Markovian feedback. However, it would be far more difficult to implement than Markovian feedback and it loses its superiority when obvious simplifying approximations are made. It is thus not clear which form of feedback would be better in the face of inevitable experimental imperfections.

Asian elephants as agricultural pests: Economics of control and compensation in Sri Lanka

Despite growing attention to crop and property damage caused by the Asian elephant, uncertainty exists about the magnitude of this problem. This article explores the nature and, Magnitude of this problem in Sri Lanka. An economic analysis of individual farmers'. decisions to control elephants is provided. Government policies to assist farmers in coping with the elephant pest problem are assessed. Appropriate compensation schemes for farmers are seen as potentially more effective for conserving elephants in Sri Lanka than legal prohibitions on the killing of elephants. The issues raised here have wider relevance than merely to Sri Lanka or Asian elephants.

Microevolution in island forms: the roles of drift and directional selection in morphological divergence of a passerine bird

Theory predicts that in small isolated populations random genetic drift can lead to phenotypic divergence; however this prediction has rarely been tested quantitatively in natural populations. Here we utilize natural repeated island colonization events by members of the avian species complex, Zosterops lateralis, to assess whether or not genetic drift alone is an adequate explanation for the observed patterns of microevolutionary divergence in morphology. Morphological and molecular genetic characteristics of island and mainland populations are compared to test three predictions of drift theory: (1) that the pattern of morphological change is idiosyncratic to each island; (2) that there is concordance between morphological and neutral genetic shifts across island populations; and (3) for populations whose time of colonization is known, that the rate of morphological change is sufficiently slow to be accounted for solely by genetic drift. Our results are not consistent with these predictions. First, the direction of size shifts was consistently towards larger size, suggesting the action of a nonrandom process. Second, patterns of morphological divergence among recently colonized populations showed little concordance with divergence in neutral genetic characters. Third, rate tests of morphological change showed that effective population sizes were not small enough for random processes alone to account for the magnitude of microevolutionary change. Altogether, these three lines of evidence suggest that drift alone is not an adequate explanation of morphological differentiation in recently colonized island Zosterops and therefore we suggest that the observed microevolutionary changes are largely a result of directional natural selection.

Genetic differentiation between Australian and North American populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae): an exploration using allozyme electrophoresis

Allozyme analysis was used to address the question of the source of the Australian populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.). The study had three major aims: (1) To compare the levels of diversity of Australian and Hawaiian populations with potential source populations. (2) To determine whether eastern and western North American populations were sufficiently divergent for the Australian populations to be aligned to a source population. (3) To compare the differentiation among regions in Australia and North America to test the prediction of greater genetic structure in Australia, as a consequence of reduced migratory behaviour. The reverse was found, with F-ST values an order of magnitude lower in Australia than in North America. Predictably, Australian and Hawaiian populations had lower allelic diversity, but unexpected higher heterozygosity values than North American populations. It was not possible to assign the Australian populations to a definitive source, although the high levels of similarity of Australian populations to each other suggest a single colonization event. The possibility that the Australian populations have not been here long enough to reach equilibrium is discussed. (C) 2002 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2002, 75, 437-452.

Combining the analyses of introgressive hybridisation and linkage mapping to investigate the genetic architecture of population divergence in the lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis, Mitchill)

Adaptation and reproductive isolation, the engines of biological diversity, are still elusive when discussing the genetic bases of speciation. Namely, the number of genes and magnitude of selection acting positively or negatively on genomic traits implicated in speciation is contentious. Here, we describe the first steps of an ongoing research program aimed at understanding the genetic bases of population divergence and reproductive isolation in the lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis). A preliminary linkage map originating from a hybrid cross between dwarf and normal ecotypes is presented, whereby some of the segregating AFLP markers were found to be conserved among natural populations. Maximum-likelihood was used to estimate hybrid indices from non-diagnostic markers at 998 AFLP loci. This allowed identification of the most likely candidate loci that have been under the influence of selection during the natural hybridisation of whitefish originating from different glacial races. As some of these loci could be identified on the linkage map, the possibility that selection of traits in natural populations may eventually be correlated to specific chromosomal regions was demonstrated. The future prospects and potential of these approaches to elucidate the genetic bases of adaptation and reproductive isolation among sympatric ecotypes of lake whitefish is discussed.

Development of preferences for the human body shape in infancy

Two studies investigated the development of infants' visual preferences for the human body shape. In Study 1, infants of 12,15 and 18 months were tested in a standard preferential looking experiment, in which they were shown paired line drawings of typical and scrambled bodies. Results indicated that the 18-month-olds had a reliable preference for the scrambled body shapes over typical body shapes, while the younger infants did not show differential responding. In Study 2, 12- and 18-month-olds were tested with the same procedure, except that the typical and scrambled body stimuli were photographic images. The results of Study 2 again indicated that only the 18-month-olds had a reliable preference for the scrambled body shapes. This finding contrasts sharply with infants' precocious preferences for human faces, suggesting that infants' learning about human faces and human bodies follow different developmental trajectories. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Cys282Tyr polymorphism in the HFE gene in Australian Parkinson's disease patients

Iron homeostasis is altered in Parkinson's disease (PD). The HFE protein is an important regulator of cellular iron homeostasis and variations within this gene can result in iron overload and the disorder known as hereditary haemochromatosis. We studied the Cys282Tyr single nucleotide polymorphism as a genetic risk factor for PD in two distinct and separately collected cohorts of Australian PD patients and controls. In the combined cohort comprising 438 PD patients and 485 control subjects, we revealed an odds ratio for possession of the 282Tyr allele of 0.61 (95% confidence interval, Cl = 0.42-0.90, P = 0.011) from univariate chi-squared and 0.59 (95% Cl = 0.39-0.90, P = 0.014) after logistic regression analyses (correcting for potential confounding factors). These results suggest that possession of the 282Tyr allele may offer some protection against the development of PD. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anticipation of a non-aversive reaction time task facilitates the blink startle reflex

The conditions under which blink startle facilitation can be found in anticipation of a reaction time task were investigated to resolve inconsistent findings across previous studies. Four groups of participants (n = 64) were presented with two visual stimuli, one predicting a reaction time task (S+) and the second presented alone (S-). Participants were asked to make a speeded response to the offset of the S+ (S1 paradigm) or were asked to respond to a tactile stimulus presented at the offset of the S+ (S1-S2 paradigm). Half of the participants in each paradigm condition received performance feedback. Overall, blink latency shortening and magnitude facilitation were larger during S+ than during S-. More detailed analyses, however, found these differences to be reliable only in the Feedback conditions. Ratings of S+ pleasantness did not change across the experiment. Electrodermal responses to S+ were larger than to S- in all groups with differential electrodermal responding emerging earlier in the S1 paradigm. Taken together, the data support the notion that startle facilitation can occur during non-aversive Pavlovian conditioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.