Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

High-frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics, primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river-system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub-daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190,000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Though 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in-stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Endothelial function and insulin sensitivity during acute non-esterified fatty acid elevation: effects of fat composition and gender

Background and Aims: We have reported that adverse effects on flow-mediated dilation of an acute elevation of non-esterified fatty acids rich in saturated fat (SFA) are reversed following addition of long-chain (LC) n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and hypothesised that these effects may be mediated through alterations in insulin signalling pathways. In a subgroup, we explored the effects of raised NEFA enriched with SFA, with or without LC n-3 PUFA, on whole body insulin sensitivity (SI) and responsiveness of the endothelium to insulin infusion. Methods and Results: Thirty adults (mean age 27.8 y, BMI 23.2 kg/m2) consumed oral fat loads on separate occasions with continuous heparin infusion to elevate NEFA between 60-390 min. For the final 150 min, a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp was performed, whilst FMD and circulating markers of endothelial function were measured at baseline, pre-clamp (240 min) and post-clamp (390 min). NEFA elevation during the SFA-rich drinks was associated with impaired FMD (P=0.027) whilst SFA+LC n-3 PUFA improved FMD at 240 min (P=0.003). In males, insulin infusion attenuated the increase in FMD with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA (P=0.049), with SI 10% greater with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA than SFA (P=0.041). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that NEFA composition during acute elevation influences both FMD and SI, with some indication of a difference by gender. However our findings are not consistent with the hypothesis that the effects of fatty acids on endothelial function and SI operate through a common pathway. Trial registered at clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01351324.

Accurate delay analysis in prioritised wireless sensor networks for generalized packet arrival

This letter presents an accurate delay analysis in prioritised wireless sensor networks (WSN). The analysis is an enhancement of the existing analysis proposed by Choobkar and Dilmaghani, which is only applicable to the case where the lower priority nodes always have packets to send in the empty slots of the higher priority node. The proposed analysis is applicable for any pattern of packet arrival, which includes the general case where the lower priority nodes may or may not have packets to send in the empty slots of the higher priority nodes. Evaluation of both analyses showed that the proposed delay analysis has better accuracy over the full range of loads and provides an excellent match to simulation results.

Want to block earworms from conscious awareness?B(u)y gum!

Three experiments examine the role of articulatory motor planning in experiencing an involuntary musical recollection (an “earworm”). Experiment 1 shows that interfering with articulatory motor programming by chewing gum reduces both the number of voluntary and the number of involuntary—unwanted—musical thoughts. This is consistent with other findings that chewing gum interferes with voluntary processes such as recollections from verbal memory, the interpretation of ambiguous auditory images, and the scanning of familiar melodies, but is not predicted by theories of thought suppression, which assume that suppression is made more difficult by concurrent tasks or cognitive loads. Experiment 2 shows that chewing the gum affects the experience of “hearing” the music and cannot be ascribed to a general effect on thinking about a tune only in abstract terms. Experiment 3 confirms that the reduction of musical recollections by chewing gum is not the consequence of a general attentional or dual-task demand. The data support a link between articulatory motor programming and the appearance in consciousness of both voluntary and unwanted musical recollections.

Climate versus carbon dioxide controls on biomass burning: a model analysis of the glacial–interglacial contrast

Climate controls fire regimes through its influence on the amount and types of fuel present and their dryness. CO2 concentration constrains primary production by limiting photosynthetic activity in plants. However, although fuel accumulation depends on biomass production, and hence on CO2 concentration, the quantitative relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentration and biomass burning is not well understood. Here a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model (the Land surface Processes and eXchanges model, LPX) is used to attribute glacial–interglacial changes in biomass burning to an increase in CO2, which would be expected to increase primary production and therefore fuel loads even in the absence of climate change, vs. climate change effects. Four general circulation models provided last glacial maximum (LGM) climate anomalies – that is, differences from the pre-industrial (PI) control climate – from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase~2, allowing the construction of four scenarios for LGM climate. Modelled carbon fluxes from biomass burning were corrected for the model's observed prediction biases in contemporary regional average values for biomes. With LGM climate and low CO2 (185 ppm) effects included, the modelled global flux at the LGM was in the range of 1.0–1.4 Pg C year-1, about a third less than that modelled for PI time. LGM climate with pre-industrial CO2 (280 ppm) yielded unrealistic results, with global biomass burning fluxes similar to or even greater than in the pre-industrial climate. It is inferred that a substantial part of the increase in biomass burning after the LGM must be attributed to the effect of increasing CO2 concentration on primary production and fuel load. Today, by analogy, both rising CO2 and global warming must be considered as risk factors for increasing biomass burning. Both effects need to be included in models to project future fire risks.

Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

Superinfection exclusion and the long-term survival of honey bees in Varroa-infested colonies

Over the past 50 years, many millions of European honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies have died as the ectoparasitic mite, Varroa destructor, has spread around the world. Subsequent studies have indicated that the mite's association with a group of RNA viral pathogens (Deformed Wing Virus, DWV) correlates with colony death. Here, we propose a phenomenon known as superinfection exclusion that provides an explanation of how certain A. mellifera populations have survived, despite Varroa infestation and high DWV loads. Next-generation sequencing has shown that a non-lethal DWV variant 'type B' has become established in these colonies and that the lethal 'type A' DWV variant fails to persist in the bee population. We propose that this novel stable host-pathogen relationship prevents the accumulation of lethal variants, suggesting that this interaction could be exploited for the development of an effective treatment that minimises colony losses in the future.The ISME Journal advance online publication, 27 October 2015; doi:10.1038/ismej.2015.186.

Inexpensive footwear decreases joint loading in elderly women with knee osteoarthritis

Recent literature has highlighted that the flexibility of walking barefoot reduces overload in individuals with knee osteoarthritis (OA). As such, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of inexpensive, flexible, non-heeled footwear (Moleca (R)) as compared with a modern heeled shoes and walking barefoot on the knee adduction moment (KAM) during gait in elderly women with and without knee OA. The gait of 45 elderly women between 60 and 70 years of age was evaluated. Twenty-one had knee OR graded 2 or 3 according to Kellgren and Lawrence`s criteria, and 24 who had no OA comprised the control group (CG). The gait conditions were: barefoot, Moleca (R), and modern heeled shoes. Three-dimensional kinematics and ground reaction forces were measured to calculate KAM by inverse dynamics. For both groups, the Moleca (R) provided peak KAM and KAM impulse similar to barefoot walking. For the OA group, the Moleca (R) reduced KAM even more as compared to the barefoot condition during midstance. On the other hand, the modern heeled shoes increased this variable in both groups. Inexpensive, flexible, and non-heeled footwear provided loading on the knee joint similar to a barefoot gait and significant overload decreases in elderly women with and without knee OA, compared to modern heeled shoes. During midstance, the Moleca (R) also allowed greater reduction in the knee joint loads as compared to barefoot gait in elderly women with knee OA, with the further advantage of providing external foot protection during gait. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

CD28 Exerts Protective and Detrimental Effects in a Pulmonary Model of Paracoccidioidomycosis

T-cell immunity has been claimed as the main immunoprotective mechanism against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis infection, the most important fungal infection in Latin America. As the initial events that control T-cell activation in paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) are not well established, we decided to investigate the role of CD28, an important costimulatory molecule for the activation of effector and regulatory T cells, in the immunity against this pulmonary pathogen. Using CD28-deficient (CD28(-/-)) and normal wild-type (WT) C57BL/6 mice, we were able to demonstrate that CD28 costimulation determines in pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis an early immunoprotection but a late deleterious effect associated with impaired immunity and uncontrolled fungal growth. Up to week 10 postinfection, CD28(-/-) mice presented increased pulmonary and hepatic fungal loads allied with diminished production of antibodies and pro-and anti-inflammatory cytokines besides impaired activation and migration of effector and regulatory T (Treg) cells to the lungs. Unexpectedly, CD28-sufficient mice progressively lost the control of fungal growth, resulting in an increased mortality associated with persistent presence of Treg cells, deactivation of inflammatory macrophages and T cells, prevalent presence of anti-inflammatory cytokines, elevated fungal burdens, and extensive hepatic lesions. As a whole, our findings suggest that CD28 is required for the early protective T-cell responses to P. brasiliensis infection, but it also induces the expansion of regulatory circuits that lately impair adaptive immunity, allowing uncontrolled fungal growth and overwhelming infection, which leads to precocious mortality of mice.

Toll-Like Receptor 4 Signaling Leads to Severe Fungal Infection Associated with Enhanced Proinflammatory Immunity and Impaired Expansion of Regulatory T Cells

Toll-like receptors (TLRs) present in innate immune cells recognize pathogen molecular patterns and influence immunity to control the host-parasite interaction. The objective of this study was to characterize the involvement of TLR4 in the innate and adaptive immunity to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, the most important primary fungal pathogen of Latin America. We compared the responses of C3H/HeJ mice, which are naturally defective in TLR4 signaling, with those of C3H/HePas mice, which express functional receptors, after in vitro and in vivo infection with P. brasiliensis. Unexpectedly, we verified that TLR4-defective macrophages infected in vitro with P. brasiliensis presented decreased fungal loads associated with impaired synthesis of nitric oxide, interleukin-12 (IL-12), and macrophage chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1). After intratracheal infection with 1 million yeasts, TLR4-defective mice developed reduced fungal burdens and decreased levels of pulmonary nitric oxide, proinflammatory cytokines, and antibodies. TLR4-competent mice produced elevated levels of IL-12 and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), besides cytokines of the Th17 pattern, indicating a proinflammatory role for TLR4 signaling. The more severe infection of TLR4-normal mice resulted in increased influx of activated macrophages and T cells to the lungs and progressive control of fungal burdens but impaired expansion of regulatory T cells (Treg cells). In contrast, TLR4-defective mice were not able to clear their diminished fungal burdens totally, a defect associated with deficient activation of T-cell immunity and enhanced development of Treg cells. These divergent patterns of immunity, however, resulted in equivalent mortality rates, indicating that control of elevated fungal growth mediated by vigorous inflammatory reactions is as deleterious to the hosts as low fungal loads inefficiently controlled by limited inflammatory reactions.

TLR2 Is a Negative Regulator of Th17 Cells and Tissue Pathology in a Pulmonary Model of Fungal Infection

To study the role of TLR2 in a experimental model of chronic pulmonary infection, TLR2-deficient and wild-type mice were intratracheally infected with Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, a primary fungal pathogen. Compared with control, TLR2(-/-) mice developed a less severe pulmonary infection and decreased NO synthesis. Equivalent results were detected with in vitro-infected macrophages. Unexpectedly, despite the differences in fungal loads both mouse strains showed equivalent survival times and severe pulmonary inflammatory reactions. Studies on lung-infiltrating leukocytes of TLR2(-/-) mice demonstrated an increased presence of polymorphonuclear neutrophils that control fungal loads but were associated with diminished numbers of activated CD4(+) and CD8(+) T lymphocytes. TLR2 deficiency leads to minor differences in the levels of pulmonary type 1 and type 2 cytokines, but results in increased production of KC, a CXC chemokine involved in neutrophils chemotaxis, as well as TGF-beta, IL-6, IL-23, and IL-17 skewing T cell immunity to a Th17 pattern. In addition, the preferential Th17 immunity of TLR2(-/-) mice was associated with impaired expansion of regulatory CD4(+)CD25(+)FoxP3(+) T cells. This is the first study to show that TLR2 activation controls innate and adaptive immunity to P. brasiliensis infection. TLR2 deficiency results in increased Th17 immunity associated with diminished expansion of regulatory T cells and increased lung pathology due to unrestrained inflammatory reactions. The Journal of Immunology, 2009, 183: 1279-1290.

Osteopontin involvement in granuloma formation and in the severity of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis infection

The participation of osteopontin (OPN) in Paracoccidioides brasiliensis infected mice, its association to granulomatogenesis, severity of infection, pattern of lesions, nitric oxide (NO) levels and fungal load were evaluated in this investigation. Immunohistochemistry analysis showed marked OPN staining in extracellular matrix and in macrophages and multinucleated giant cells at the center of lesions, suggesting a possible role of OPN in the distribution of these cells within the granulomas. At 15 days post-infection with a virulent P. brasiliensis isolate, OPN(+) cells were more numerous and intensely immunostained in the loose granulomas of susceptible mice than in those of resistant mice. In addition, high fungal loads and low NO levels were observed in susceptible mice. At 120 days after infection, resistant mice had increased total OPN levels (ELISA) and OPN positivity in compact granulomas, higher NO levels and lower fungal loads than susceptible mice. Residual lesions associated with low OPN levels, high NO and control of fungal dissemination were observed in both mouse strains at 120 days post-infection with the slightly virulent fungal isolate. Therefore, OPN could be associated with higher severity of the disease in an early phase of infection and with a degree of control of the progressive infection.

Gradual Decline in Malaria-Specific Memory T Cell Responses Leads to Failure to Maintain Long-Term Protective Immunity to Plasmodium chabaudi AS Despite Persistence of B Cell Memory and Circulating Antibody

The mechanisms responsible for the generation and maintenance of immunological memory to Plasmodium are poorly understood and the reasons why protective immunity in humans is so difficult to achieve and rapidly lost remain a matter for debate. A possible explanation for the difficulty in building up an efficient immune response against this parasite is the massive T cell apoptosis resulting from exposure to high-dose parasite Ag. To determine the immunological mechanisms required for long-term protection against P. chabaudi malaria and the consequences of high and low acute phase parasite loads for acquisition of protective immunity, we performed a detailed analysis of T and B cell compartments over a period of 200 days following untreated and drug-treated infections in female C57BL/6 mice. By comparing several immunological parameters with the capacity to control a secondary parasite challenge, we concluded that loss of full protective immunity is not determined by acute phase parasite load nor by serum levels of specific IgG2a and IgG1. Abs, but appears to be a consequence of the progressive decline in memory T cell response to parasites, which occurs similarly in untreated and drug-treated mice with time after infection. Furthermore, by analyzing adoptive transfer experiments, we confirmed the major role of CD4(+) T cells for guaranteeing long-term full protection against P. chabaudi malaria. The Journal of Immunology, 2008, 181: 8344-8355.

CD4(+) CD25(+) Foxp3(+) Regulatory T Cells, Dendritic Cells, and Circulating Cytokines in Uncomplicated Malaria: Do Different Parasite Species Elicit Similar Host Responses?

Clearing blood-stage malaria parasites without inducing major host pathology requires a finely tuned balance between pro- and anti-inflammatory responses. The interplay between regulatory T (Treg) cells and dendritic cells (DCs) is one of the key determinants of this balance. Although experimental models have revealed various patterns of Treg cell expansion, DC maturation, and cytokine production according to the infecting malaria parasite species, no studies have compared all of these parameters in human infections with Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax in the same setting of endemicity. Here we show that during uncomplicated acute malaria, both species induced a significant expansion of CD4(+) CD25(+) Foxp3(+) Treg cells expressing the key immunomodulatory molecule CTLA-4 and a significant increase in the proportion of DCs that were plasmacytoid (CD123(+)), with a decrease in the myeloid/plasmacytoid DC ratio. These changes were proportional to parasite loads but correlated neither with the intensity of clinical symptoms nor with circulating cytokine levels. One-third of P. vivax-infected patients, but no P. falciparum-infected subjects, showed impaired maturation of circulating DCs, with low surface expression of CD86. Although vivax malaria patients overall had a less inflammatory cytokine response, with a higher interleukin-10 (IL-10)/tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) ratio, this finding did not translate to milder clinical manifestations than those of falciparum malaria patients. We discuss the potential implications of these findings for species-specific pathogenesis and longlasting protective immunity to malaria.