The Truncated Inflated Beta Distribution

The study of proportions is a common topic in many fields of study. The standard beta distribution or the inflated beta distribution may be a reasonable choice to fit a proportion in most situations. However, they do not fit well variables that do not assume values in the open interval (0, c), 0 < c < 1. For these variables, the authors introduce the truncated inflated beta distribution (TBEINF). This proposed distribution is a mixture of the beta distribution bounded in the open interval (c, 1) and the trinomial distribution. The authors present the moments of the distribution, its scoring vector, and Fisher information matrix, and discuss estimation of its parameters. The properties of the suggested estimators are studied using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the authors present an application of the TBEINF distribution for unemployment insurance data.

Amycolatopsis granulosa sp nov., Amycolatopsis ruanii sp nov and Amycolatopsis thermalba sp nov., thermophilic actinomycetes isolated from arid soils

The taxonomic positions of three thermophilic actinomycetes isolated from arid soil samples were established by using a polyphasic approach. The organisms had chemical and morphological features that were consistent with their classification in the genus Amycolatopsis. 16S rRNA gene sequence data supported the classification of the isolates in the genus Amycolatopsis and showed that they formed distinct branches in the Amycolatopsis methanolica subclade. DNA-DNA relatedness studies between the isolates and their phylogenetic neighbours showed that they belonged to distinct genomic species. The three isolates were readily distinguished from one another and from the type strains of species classified in the A. methanolica subclade based on a combination of phenotypic properties and by genomic fingerprinting. Consequently, it is proposed that the three isolates be classified in the genus Amycolatopsis as representatives of Amycolatopsis granulosa sp. nov. (type strain GY307(T)=NCIMB 14709(T)=NRRL B-24844(T)), Amycolatopsis ruanii sp. nov. (type strain NMG112(T)=NCIMB 14711(T)=NRRL B-24848(T)) and Amycolatopsis thermalba sp. nov. (type strain SF45(T)=NCIMB 14705(T)=NRRL B-24845(T)).

A Poisson mixed model with nonnormal random effect distribution

In this paper, we propose a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. This random effect accommodates (or captures) the overdispersion in the counts and induces within-cluster correlation. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the intraclass correlation. Even though numerical integration methods are, in general, required for deriving the marginal models, we obtain the multivariate negative binomial model from a particular parameter setting of the hierarchical model. An iterative process is derived for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the multivariate negative binomial model. Residual analysis is proposed and two applications with real data are given for illustration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

A total of 46,089 individual monthly test-day (TD) milk yields (10 test-days), from 7,331 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. A standard multivariate analysis (MV), reduced rank analyses fitting the first 2, 3, and 4 genetic principal components (PC2, PC3, PC4), and analyses that fitted a factor analytic structure considering 2, 3, and 4 factors (FAS2, FAS3, FAS4), were carried out. The models included the random animal genetic effect and fixed effects of the contemporary groups (herd-year-month of test-day), age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect). The residual covariance matrix was assumed to have full rank. Moreover, 2 random regression models were applied. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method. The heritability estimates ranged from 0.11 to 0.24. The genetic correlation estimates between TD obtained with the PC2 model were higher than those obtained with the MV model, especially on adjacent test-days at the end of lactation close to unity. The results indicate that for the data considered in this study, only 2 principal components are required to summarize the bulk of genetic variation among the 10 traits.

A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From Amazonia to the Atlantic forest: Molecular phylogeny of Phyzelaphryninae frogs reveals unexpected diversity and a striking biogeographic pattern emphasizing conservation challenges

Documenting the Neotropical amphibian diversity has become a major challenge facing the threat of global climate change and the pace of environmental alteration. Recent molecular phylogenetic studies have revealed that the actual number of species in South American tropical forests is largely underestimated, but also that many lineages are millions of years old. The genera Phyzelaphryne (1 sp.) and Adelophryne (6 spp.), which compose the subfamily Phyzelaphryninae, include poorly documented, secretive, and minute frogs with an unusual distribution pattern that encompasses the biotic disjunction between Amazonia and the Atlantic forest. We generated >5.8 kb sequence data from six markers for all seven nominal species of the subfamily as well as for newly discovered populations in order to (1) test the monophyly of Phyzelaphryninae, Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, (2) estimate species diversity within the subfamily, and (3) investigate their historical biogeography and diversification. Phylogenetic reconstruction confirmed the monophyly of each group and revealed deep subdivisions within Adelophryne and Phyzelaphryne, with three major clades in Adelophryne located in northern Amazonia, northern Atlantic forest and southern Atlantic forest. Our results suggest that the actual number of species in Phyzelaphryninae is, at least, twice the currently recognized species diversity, with almost every geographically isolated population representing an anciently divergent candidate species. Such results highlight the challenges for conservation, especially in the northern Atlantic forest where it is still degraded at a fast pace. Molecular dating revealed that Phyzelaphryninae originated in Amazonia and dispersed during early Miocene to the Atlantic forest. The two Atlantic forest clades of Adelophryne started to diversify some 7 Ma minimum, while the northern Amazonian Adelophryne diversified much earlier, some 13 Ma minimum. This striking biogeographic pattern coincides with major events that have shaped the face of the South American continent, as we know it today. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphological and molecular studies of Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae (Cyanobacteria, Nostocales) from South American water blooms

Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae (Komarek) Werner, Laughinghouse IV, Fiore & Sant'Anna comb. nov. was originally described as Anabaena torques-reginae Komarek from planktonic populations of Cuban eutrophic environments, characterized by twisted trichomes with spherical akinetes adjacent to the heterocytes. Recently, using molecular analyses, all planktonic Anabaena Bory ex Bornet & Flahault morphospecies were transferred into the genus Dolichospermum (Ralfs ex Bornet & Flahault) Wacklin el al., including Dolichospermum torques-reginae (Komarek) Wacklin et al. However, by a polyphasic characterization of strains of Anabaena reniformis Lemmermann and Aphanizomenon aphanizomenoides (Forti) Horecka & Komarek (=Anabaena aphanizomenoides Forti), these planktonic species were reclassified into Sphaerospermopsis Zapomelova et al. Our study's main objective was to characterize morphologically and molecularly cyanobacterial populations identified as Dolichospermum torques-reginae, observed in different aquatic ecosystems in South America. The 16S rRNA gene of two Dolichospermum torques-reginae strains (ITEP-024 and ITEP-026) was sequenced and phylogenetically analyzed for the first time. The morphological and phylogenetic analyses demonstrated the affiliation of the studied populations with the genus Sphaerospermopsis and, consequently, were denominated as Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae. Furthermore, geographic distribution, ecology, and toxicity of the species are discussed. It was observed in different aquatic environments, natural and artificial, tropical and subtropical in Brazil, temperate in Argentina, and tropical in Colombia, suggesting a wide distribution in South America. It normally occurred in dense freshwater blooms, although it was also found in water with low salinity. Sphaerospermopsis torques-reginae toxic blooms have been reported in tropical water bodies in northeastern Brazil.

Measurements of atmospheric neutrinos and antineutrinos in the MINOS far detector

This paper reports measurements of atmospheric neutrino and antineutrino interactions in the MINOS Far Detector, based on 2553 live-days (37.9 kton-years) of data. A total of 2072 candidate events are observed. These are separated into 905 contained-vertex muons and 466 neutrino-induced rock-muons, both produced by charged-current nu(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) interactions, and 701 contained-vertex showers, composed mainly of charged-current nu(e) and (nu) over bar (e) interactions and neutral-current interactions. The curvature of muon tracks in the magnetic field of the MINOS Far Detector is used to select separate samples of nu(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) events. The observed ratio of (nu) over bar (mu) to v(mu) events is compared with the Monte Carlo ( MC) simulation, giving a double ratio of R((nu) over bar/nu)data/R(nu) over bar/nu MC = 1.03 +/- 0.08(stat) +/- 0.08(syst). The v(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) data are separated into bins of L/E resolution, based on the reconstructed energy and direction of each event, and a maximum likelihood fit to the observed L/E distributions is used to determine the atmospheric neutrino oscillation parameters. This fit returns 90% confidence limits of |Delta m(2)| = (1.9 +/- 0.4) x 10(-3) eV(2) and sin(2)2 theta > 0.86. The fit is extended to incorporate separate nu(mu) and (nu) over bar mu oscillation parameters, returning 90% confidence limits of |Delta m(2)| - |Delta(m) over bar (2)| = 0.6(-0.8)(+2.4) x 10(-3) eV(2) on the difference between the squared-mass splittings for neutrinos and antineutrinos.

A new method for calculating the convergent point of a moving group

Context. Convergent point (CP) search methods are important tools for studying the kinematic properties of open clusters and young associations whose members share the same spatial motion. Aims. We present a new CP search strategy based on proper motion data. We test the new algorithm on synthetic data and compare it with previous versions of the CP search method. As an illustration and validation of the new method we also present an application to the Hyades open cluster and a comparison with independent results. Methods. The new algorithm rests on the idea of representing the stellar proper motions by great circles over the celestial sphere and visualizing their intersections as the CP of the moving group. The new strategy combines a maximum-likelihood analysis for simultaneously determining the CP and selecting the most likely group members and a minimization procedure that returns a refined CP position and its uncertainties. The method allows one to correct for internal motions within the group and takes into account that the stars in the group lie at different distances. Results. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the new CP search method in many cases returns a more precise solution than its previous versions. The new method is able to find and eliminate more field stars in the sample and is not biased towards distant stars. The CP solution for the Hyades open cluster is in excellent agreement with previous determinations.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Local power and size properties of the LR, Wald, score and gradient tests in dispersion models

We derive asymptotic expansions for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of dispersion models, under a sequence of Pitman alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of these statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the precision parameter. Based on these nonnull asymptotic expansions, the power of all four tests, which are equivalent to first order, are compared. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing malaria transmission in a low endemicity area of north-western Peru

Background Where malaria endemicity is low, control programmes need increasingly sensitive tools for monitoring malaria transmission intensity (MTI) and to better define health priorities. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a low endemicity area of the Peruvian north-western coast to assess the MTI using both molecular and serological tools. Methods Epidemiological, parasitological and serological data were collected from 2,667 individuals in three settlements of Bellavista district, in May 2010. Parasite infection was detected using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Antibodies to Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein-119 (PvMSP119) and to Plasmodium falciparum glutamate-rich protein (PfGLURP) were detected by ELISA. Risk factors for exposure to malaria (seropositivity) were assessed by multivariate survey logistic regression models. Age-specific antibody prevalence of both P. falciparum and P. vivax were analysed using a previously published catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood for generating seroconversion rates (SCR). Results The overall parasite prevalence by microscopy and PCR were extremely low: 0.3 and 0.9%, respectively for P. vivax, and 0 and 0.04%, respectively for P. falciparum, while seroprevalence was much higher, 13.6% for P. vivax and 9.8% for P. falciparum. Settlement, age and occupation as moto-taxi driver during previous year were significantly associated with P. falciparum exposure, while age and distance to the water drain were associated with P. vivax exposure. Likelihood ratio tests supported age seroprevalence curves with two SCR for both P. vivax and P. falciparum indicating significant changes in the MTI over time. The SCR for PfGLURP was 19-fold lower after 2002 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.022 versus λ2 = 0.431), and the SCR for PvMSP119 was four-fold higher after 2006 as compared to before (λ1 = 0.024 versus λ2 = 0.006). Conclusion Combining molecular and serological tools considerably enhanced the capacity of detecting current and past exposure to malaria infections and related risks factors in this very low endemicity area. This allowed for an improved characterization of the current human reservoir of infections, largely hidden and heterogeneous, as well as providing insights into recent changes in species specific MTIs. This approach will be of key importance for evaluating and monitoring future malaria elimination strategies.

Phylogeography of the neotropical Anopheles triannulatus complex (Diptera: Culicidae) supports deep structure and complex patterns

Abstract Background The molecular phylogenetic relationships and population structure of the species of the Anopheles triannulatus complex: Anopheles triannulatus s.s., Anopheles halophylus and the putative species Anopheles triannulatus C were investigated. Methods The mitochondrial COI gene, the nuclear white gene and rDNA ITS2 of samples that include the known geographic distribution of these taxa were analyzed. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using Bayesian inference, Maximum parsimony and Maximum likelihood approaches. Results Each data set analyzed septely yielded a different topology but none provided evidence for the seption of An. halophylus and An. triannulatus C, consistent with the hypothesis that the two are undergoing incipient speciation. The phylogenetic analyses of the white gene found three main clades, whereas the statistical parsimony network detected only a single metapopulation of Anopheles triannulatus s.l. Seven COI lineages were detected by phylogenetic and network analysis. In contrast, the network, but not the phylogenetic analyses, strongly supported three ITS2 groups. Combined data analyses provided the best resolution of the trees, with two major clades, Amazonian (clade I) and trans-Andean + Amazon Delta (clade II). Clade I consists of multiple subclades: An. halophylus + An. triannulatus C; trans-Andean Venezuela; central Amazonia + central Bolivia; Atlantic coastal lowland; and Amazon delta. Clade II includes three subclades: Panama; cis-Andean Colombia; and cis-Venezuela. The Amazon delta specimens are in both clades, likely indicating local sympatry. Spatial and molecular variance analyses detected nine groups, corroborating some of subclades obtained in the combined data analysis. Conclusion Combination of the three molecular markers provided the best resolution for differentiation within An. triannulatus s.s. and An. halophylus and C. The latest two species seem to be very closely related and the analyses performed were not conclusive regarding species differentiation. Further studies including new molecular markers would be desirable to solve this species status question. Besides, results of the study indicate a trans-Andean origin for An. triannulatus s.l. The potential implications for malaria epidemiology remain to be investigated.

Essays on Wage and Price Formation in Sweden

Study IReal Wage Determination in the Swedish Engineering Industry This study uses the monopoly union model to examine the determination of real wages and in particular the effects of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) on real wages in the engineering industry. Quarterly data for the period 1970:1 to 1996:4 are used in a cointegration framework, utilising the Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. On a basis of the Johansen (trace) test results, vector error correction (VEC) models are created in order to model the determination of real wages in the engineering industry. The estimation results support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect to rises in the labour productivity, in the tax wedge, in the alternative real consumer wage and in real UI benefits. The estimation results also support the presence of a long-run wage-raising effect due to positive changes in the participation rates regarding ALMPs, relief jobs and labour market training. This could be interpreted as meaning that the possibility of being a participant in an ALMP increases the utility for workers of not being employed in the industry, which in turn could increase real wages in the industry in the long run. Finally, the estimation results show evidence of a long-run wage-reducing effect due to positive changes in the unemployment rate. Study IIIntersectoral Wage Linkages in Sweden The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the wage-setting in certain sectors of the Swedish economy affects the wage-setting in other sectors. The theoretical background is the Scandinavian model of inflation, which states that the wage-setting in the sectors exposed to international competition affects the wage-setting in the sheltered sectors of the economy. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly data on Swedish sector wages for the period 1980:1–2002:2. Different vector error correction (VEC) models are created, based on assumptions as to which sectors are exposed to international competition and which are not. The adaptability of wages between sectors is then tested by imposing restrictions on the estimated VEC models. Finally, Granger causality tests are performed in the different restricted/unrestricted VEC models to test for sector wage leadership. The empirical results indicate considerable adaptability in wages as between manufacturing, construction, the wholesale and retail trade, the central government sector and the municipalities and county councils sector. This is consistent with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model. Further, the empirical results indicate a low level of adaptability in wages as between the financial sector and manufacturing, and between the financial sector and the two public sectors. The Granger causality tests provide strong evidence for the presence of intersectoral wage causality, but no evidence of a wage-leading role in line with the assumptions of the Scandinavian model for any of the sectors. Study IIIWage and Price Determination in the Private Sector in Sweden The purpose of this study is to analyse wage and price determination in the private sector in Sweden during the period 1980–2003. The theoretical background is a variant of the “Imperfect competition model of inflation”, which assumes imperfect competition in the labour and product markets. According to the model wages and prices are determined as a result of a “battle of mark-ups” between trade unions and firms. The Johansen maximum likelihood cointegration approach is applied to quarterly Swedish data on consumer prices, import prices, private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity and the total unemployment rate for the period 1980:1–2003:3. The chosen cointegration rank of the estimated vector error correction (VEC) model is two. Thus, two cointegration relations are assumed: one for private-sector nominal wage determination and one for consumer price determination. The estimation results indicate that an increase of consumer prices by one per cent lifts private-sector nominal wages by 0.8 per cent. Furthermore, an increase of private-sector nominal wages by one per cent increases consumer prices by one per cent. An increase of one percentage point in the total unemployment rate reduces private-sector nominal wages by about 4.5 per cent. The long-run effects of private-sector labour productivity and import prices on consumer prices are about –1.2 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The Rehnberg agreement during 1991–92 and the monetary policy shift in 1993 affected the determination of private-sector nominal wages, private-sector labour productivity, import prices and the total unemployment rate. The “offensive” devaluation of the Swedish krona by 16 per cent in 1982:4, and the start of a floating Swedish krona and the substantial depreciation of the krona at this time affected the determination of import prices.

Molecular markers for the assessment of genetic variability in threatened plant species

La variabilità genetica è un importante strumento per lo studio e la conservazione della biodiversità in specie rare e minacciate di estinzione. Durante il mio dottorato mi sono quindi occupata di mettere a punto diverse metodologie molecolari al fine di valutare la diversità genetica in due specie rare della flora italiana che presentano problematiche diverse e specifiche. I marcatori arbitrari RAPD e i marcatori semi-arbitrari ISSR sono stati utilizzati per valutare la diversità genetica in Quercus crenata Lam. e per confermare l’ipotesi della sua origine ibridogena dalle due specie presunte parentali Quercus cerris L. e Quercus suber L., essendo Q. crenata presente in Italia settentrionale dove Q. suber è attualmente assente. I marcatori SSR o microsatelliti sono invece stati messi a punto su una specie a rischio di estinzione, endemica dell’Appennino Tosco-Emiliano, Primula apennina Widmer, applicando una metodologia specifica, basata sulla costruzione di una libreria genomica arricchita per l’isolamento di primer specifici. I marcatori RAPD e ISSR, utilizzati su un totale di 85 campioni, hanno mostrato alti livelli di diversità molecolare entro le specie studiate, eccetto per Q. suber le cui popolazioni rappresentano il margine orientale di distribuzione della specie, per questo più sottoposte ad impoverimento genetico. Oltre alla cluster analysis (UPGMA) e alla Analisi delle Componenti Principali effettuate per entrambi i marcatori, che confermano l’ipotesi dell’origine ibrida degli individui di Q. crenata diffusi in Italia Settentrionale, sono stati calcolati l’indice di ibridità basato sul maximum likelihood, che dimostra una introgressione asimmetrica di Q. crenata verso il parentale caratterizzato da superiorità demografica (Q. cerris) e il test di Mantel. Quest’ultimo ha permesso di confrontare i due marcatori RAPD e ISSR utilizzati ottenendo una bassa correlazione, a conferma del fatto che, amplificando tratti differenti del DNA nucleare, i dati non sono sovrapponibili, sebbene forniscano risultati analoghi. Per l’isolamento di loci microsatelliti ipervariabili ho utilizzato il protocolllo FIASCO (Fast isolation by AFLP of sequences containing repeats- Zane et al. 2002) che permette di costruire una libreria genomica arricchita partendo dal DNA estratto da P. apennina. Tale procedura ha previsto la digestione del DNA genomico per la produzione di una miscela di frammenti di DNA. Tramite ibridazione con opportune sonde sono stati isolati i frammenti contenenti i microsatelliti. Sequenziando i cloni ricombinanti, ho ottenuto sequenze contenenti repeats sulle cui regioni fiancheggianti sono stati costruiti 15 coppie di primer che potranno, in seguito, essere utilizzate per definire la quota di riproduzione clonale in P. apennina e per valutare la diversità genetica delle popolazioni che coprono l’areale di distribuzione della specie. Data la loro natura altamente variabile e la loro abbondanza nel DNA, gli SSR saranno, come i marcatori RAPD e gli ISSR, ugualmente validi per lo studio della variabilità genetica e per l’analisi di problematiche specifiche legate alle specie rare.