Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

Self-exciting hurdle models for terrorist activity

A predictive model of terrorist activity is developed by examining the daily number of terrorist attacks in Indonesia from 1994 through 2007. The dynamic model employs a shot noise process to explain the self-exciting nature of the terrorist activities. This estimates the probability of future attacks as a function of the times since the past attacks. In addition, the excess of nonattack days coupled with the presence of multiple coordinated attacks on the same day compelled the use of hurdle models to jointly model the probability of an attack day and corresponding number of attacks. A power law distribution with a shot noise driven parameter best modeled the number of attacks on an attack day. Interpretation of the model parameters is discussed and predictive performance of the models is evaluated.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Advances in mass spectrometry for lipidomics

Recent expansion in research in the field of lipidomics has been driven by the development of new mass spectrometric tools and protocols for the identification and quantification of molecular lipids in complex matrices. Although there are similarities between the field of lipidomics and the allied field of mass spectrometry (e.g., proteomics), lipids present some unique advantages and challenges for mass spectrometric analysis. The application of electrospray ionization to crude lipid extracts without prior fractionation-the so-called shotgun approach-is one such example, as it has perhaps been more successfully applied in lipidomics than in any other discipline. Conversely, the diverse molecular structure of lipids means that collision-induced dissociation alone may be limited in providing unique descriptions of complex lipid structures, and the development of additional, complementary tools for ion activation and analysis is required to overcome these challenges. In this article, we discuss the state of the art in lipid mass spectrometry and highlight several areas in which current approaches are deficient and further innovation is required.

Automated surface sampling of lipids from worn contact lenses coupled with tandem mass spectrometry

The deposition of biological material (biofouling) onto polymeric contact lenses is thought to be a major contributor to lens discomfort and hence discontinuation of wear. We describe a method to characterize lipid deposits directly from worn contact lenses utilizing liquid extraction surface analysis coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LESA-MS/MS). This technique effected facile and reproducible extraction of lipids from the contact lens surfaces and identified lipid molecular species representing all major classes present in human tear film. Our data show that LESA-MS/MS is a rapid and comprehensive technique for the characterization of lipid-related biofouling on polymer surfaces.

Surface analysis of lipids by mass spectrometry : More than just imaging

Mass spectrometry is now an indispensable tool for lipid analysis and is arguably the driving force in the renaissance of lipid research. In its various forms, mass spectrometry is uniquely capable of resolving the extensive compositional and structural diversity of lipids in biological systems. Furthermore, it provides the ability to accurately quantify molecular-level changes in lipid populations associated with changes in metabolism and environment; bringing lipid science to the "omics" age. The recent explosion of mass spectrometry-based surface analysis techniques is fuelling further expansion of the lipidomics field. This is evidenced by the numerous papers published on the subject of mass spectrometric imaging of lipids in recent years. While imaging mass spectrometry provides new and exciting possibilities, it is but one of the many opportunities direct surface analysis offers the lipid researcher. In this review we describe the current state-of-the-art in the direct surface analysis of lipids with a focus on tissue sections, intact cells and thin-layer chromatography substrates. The suitability of these different approaches towards analysis of the major lipid classes along with their current and potential applications in the field of lipid analysis are evaluated. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

UV Photodissociation Action Spectroscopy of Haloanilinium Ions in a Linear Quadrupole Ion Trap Mass Spectrometer

UV-vis photodissociation action spectroscopy is becoming increasingly prevalent because of advances in, and commercial availability of, ion trapping technologies and tunable laser sources. This study outlines in detail an instrumental arrangement, combining a commercial ion-trap mass spectrometer and tunable nanosecond pulsed laser source, for performing fully automated photodissociation action spectroscopy on gas-phase ions. The components of the instrumentation are outlined, including the optical and electronic interfacing, in addition to the control software for automating the experiment and performing online analysis of the spectra. To demonstrate the utility of this ensemble, the photodissociation action spectra of 4-chloroanilinium, 4-bromoanilinium, and 4-iodoanilinium cations are presented and discussed. Multiple photoproducts are detected in each case and the photoproduct yields are followed as a function of laser wavelength. It is shown that the wavelength-dependent partitioning of the halide loss, H loss, and NH3 loss channels can be broadly rationalized in terms of the relative carbon-halide bond dissociation energies and processes of energy redistribution. The photodissociation action spectrum of (phenyl)Ag-2 (+) is compared with a literature spectrum as a further benchmark.

Reaction of Aromatic Peroxyl Radicals with Alkynes: A Mass Spectrometric and Computational Study Using the Distonic Radical Ion Approach

The reaction of the aromatic distonic peroxyl radical cations N-methyl pyridinium-4-peroxyl (PyrOO center dot+) and 4-(N,N,N-trimethyl ammonium)-phenyl peroxyl (AnOO center dot+), with symmetrical dialkyl alkynes 10?ac was studied in the gas phase by mass spectrometry. PyrOO center dot+ and AnOO center dot+ were produced through reaction of the respective distonic aryl radical cations Pyr center dot+ and An center dot+ with oxygen, O2. For the reaction of Pyr center dot+ with O2 an absolute rate coefficient of k1=7.1X10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 and a collision efficiency of 1.2?% was determined at 298 K. The strongly electrophilic PyrOO center dot+ reacts with 3-hexyne and 4-octyne with absolute rate coefficients of khexyne=1.5X10-10 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 and koctyne=2.8X10-10 cm3 molecule-1 s-1, respectively, at 298 K. The reaction of both PyrOO center dot+ and AnOO center dot+ proceeds by radical addition to the alkyne, whereas propargylic hydrogen abstraction was observed as a very minor pathway only in the reactions involving PyrOO center dot+. A major reaction pathway of the vinyl radicals 11 formed upon PyrOO center dot+ addition to the alkynes involves gamma-fragmentation of the peroxy O?O bond and formation of PyrO center dot+. The PyrO center dot+ is rapidly trapped by intermolecular hydrogen abstraction, presumably from a propargylic methylene group in the alkyne. The reaction of the less electrophilic AnOO center dot+ with alkynes is considerably slower and resulted in formation of AnO center dot+ as the only charged product. These findings suggest that electrophilic aromatic peroxyl radicals act as oxygen atom donors, which can be used to generate alpha-oxo carbenes 13 (or isomeric species) from alkynes in a single step. Besides gamma-fragmentation, a number of competing unimolecular dissociative reactions also occur in vinyl radicals 11. The potential energy diagrams of these reactions were explored with density functional theory and ab initio methods, which enabled identification of the chemical structures of the most important products.

Paint spray mass spectrometry for the detection of additives from polymers on conducting surfaces

Paint Spray is developed as a direct sampling ionisation method for mass spectrometric analysis of additives in polymer-based surface coatings. The technique simply involves applying an external high voltage (5 kV) to the wetted sample placed in front of the mass spectrometer inlet and represents a much simpler ionisation technique compared to those currently available. The capabilities of Paint Spray are demonstrated herein with the detection of four commercially available hindered amine light stabilisers; TINUVIN® 770, TINUVIN® 292, TINUVIN® 123 and TINUVIN® 152 directly from thermoset polyester-based coil coatings. Paint Spray requires no sample preparation or pre-treatment and combined with its simplicity - requiring no specialised equipment - makes it ideal for use by non-specialists. The application of Paint Spray for industrial use has significant potential as sample collection from a coil coating production line and Paint Spray ionisation could enable fast quality control screening at high sensitivity.

Ambient ionisation mass spectrometry for the characterisation of polymers and polymer additives : A review

The purpose of this review is to showcase the present capabilities of ambient sampling and ionisation technologies for the analysis of polymers and polymer additives by mass spectrometry (MS) while simultaneously highlighting their advantages and limitations in a critical fashion. To qualify as an ambient ionisation technique, the method must be able to probe the surface of solid or liquid samples while operating in an open environment, allowing a variety of sample sizes, shapes, and substrate materials to be analysed. The main sections of this review will be guided by the underlying principle governing the desorption/extraction step of the analysis; liquid extraction, laser ablation, or thermal desorption, and the major component investigated, either the polymer itself or exogenous compounds (additives and contaminants) present within or on the polymer substrate. The review will conclude by summarising some of the challenges these technologies still face and possible directions that would further enhance the utility of ambient ionisation mass spectrometry as a tool for polymer analysis. (C) 2013 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Characterising in situ activation and degradation of hindered amine light stabilisers using liquid extraction surface analysis-mass spectrometry

Changes in the molecular structure of polymer antioxidants such as hindered amine light stabilisers (HALS) is central to their efficacy in retarding polymer degradation and therefore requires careful monitoring during their in-service lifetime. The HALS, bis-(1-octyloxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-4-piperidinyl) sebacate (TIN123) and bis-(1,2,2,6,6-pentamethyl-4-piperidinyl) sebacate (TIN292), were formulated in different polymer systems and then exposed to various curing and ageing treatments to simulate in-service use. Samples of these coatings were then analysed directly using liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA) coupled with a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. Analysis of TIN123 formulated in a cross-linked polyester revealed that the polymer matrix protected TIN123 from undergoing extensive thermal degradation that would normally occur at 292 degrees C, specifically, changes at the 1- and 4-positions of the piperidine groups. The effect of thermal versus photo-oxidative degradation was also compared for TIN292 formulated in polyacrylate films by monitoring the in situ conversion of N-CH3 substituted piperidines to N-H. The analysis confirmed that UV light was required for the conversion of N-CH3 moieties to N-H - a major pathway in the antioxidant protection of polymers - whereas this conversion was not observed with thermal degradation. The use of tandem mass spectrometric techniques, including precursor-ion scanning, is shown to be highly sensitive and specific for detecting molecular-level changes in HALS compounds and, when coupled with LESA, able to monitor these changes in situ with speed and reproducibility. (C) 2013 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Desorption electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry of stabilised polyesters reveals activation of hindered amine light stabilisers

The use of hindered amine light stabilizers (HALS) to retard thermo- and photo-degradation of polymers has become increasingly common. Proposed mechanisms of polymer stabilisation involve significant changes to the HALS chemical structure; however, reports of the characterisation of these modified chemical species are limited. To better understand the fate of HALS and determine their in situ modifications, desorption electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry (DESI-MS) was employed to characterise ten commercially available HALS present in polyester-based coil coatings. TINUVIN® 770, 292, 144, 123, 152, and NOR371; HOSTAVIN® 3052, 3055, 3050, and 3058 were separately formulated with a pigmented, thermosetting polyester resin, cured on metal at 262 C and analysed directly by DESI-MS. High-level ab initio molecular orbital theory calculations were also undertaken to aid the mechanistic interpretation of the results. For HALS containing N-substituted piperidines (i.e., N-CH3, N-C(O)CH3, and N-OR) a secondary piperidine (N-H) analogue was detected in all cases. The formation of these intermediates can be explained either through hydrogen abstraction based mechanisms or direct N-OR homolysis with the former dominant under normal service temperatures (ca. 25-80 C), and the latter potentially becoming competitive under the high temperatures associated with curing (ca. 230-260 C). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural characterization of glycerophospholipids by combinations of ozone- and collision-induced dissociation mass spectrometry: The next step towards "top-down" lipidomics

The complete structural elucidation of complex lipids, including glycerophospholipids, using only mass spectrometry represents a major challenge to contemporary analytical technologies. Here, we demonstrate that product ions arising from the collision-induced dissociation (CID) of the [M + Na] + adduct ions of phospholipids can be isolated and subjected to subsequent gas-phase ozonolysis-known as ozone-induced dissociation (OzID)-in a linear ion-trap mass spectrometer. The resulting CID/OzID experiment yields abundant product ions that are characteristic of the acyl substitution on the glycerol backbone (i.e., sn-position). This approach is shown to differentiate sn-positional isomers, such as the regioisomeric phosphatidylcholine pair of PC 16:0/18:1 and PC 18:1/16:0. Importantly, CID/OzID provides a sensitive diagnostic for the existence of an isomeric mixture in a given sample. This is of very high value for the analysis of tissue extracts since CID/OzID analyses can reveal changes in the relative abundance of isomeric constituents even within different tissues from the same animal. Finally, we demonstrate the ability to assign carbon-carbon double bond positions to individual acyl chains at specific backbone positions by adding subsequent CID and/or OzID steps to the workflow and that this can be achieved in a single step using a hybrid triple quadrupole-linear ion trap mass spectrometer. This unique approach represents the most complete and specific structural analysis of lipids by mass spectrometry demonstrated to date and is a significant step towards comprehensive top-down lipidomics. This journal is © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2014. Grant Number ARC/DP0986628, ARC/FT110100249, ARC/LP110200648

Rapid differentiation of isomeric lipids by photodissociation mass spectrometry of fatty acid derivatives

RATIONALE Both traditional electron ionization and electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry have demonstrated limitations in the unambiguous identification of fatty acids. In the former case, high electron energies lead to extensive dissociation of the radical cations from which little specific structural information can be obtained. In the latter, conventional collision-induced dissociation (CID) of even-electron ions provides little intra-chain fragmentation and thus few structural diagnostics. New approaches that harness the desirable features of both methods, namely radical-driven dissociation with discrete energy deposition, are thus required. METHODS Herein we describe the derivatization of a structurally diverse suite of fatty acids as 4-iodobenzyl esters (FAIBE). Electrospray ionization of these derivatives in the presence of sodium acetate yields abundant [M+Na]+ ions that can be mass-selected and subjected to laser irradiation (=266nm) on a modified linear ion-trap mass spectrometer. RESULTS Photodissociation (PD) of the FAIBE derivatives yields abundant radical cations by loss of atomic iodine and in several cases selective dissociation of activated carboncarbon bonds (e.g., at allylic positions) are also observed. Subsequent CID of the [M+NaI]center dot+ radical cations yields radical-directed dissociation (RDD) mass spectra that reveal extensive carboncarbon bond dissociation without scrambling of molecular information. CONCLUSIONS Both PD and RDD spectra obtained from derivatized fatty acids provide a wealth of structural information including the position(s) of unsaturation, chain-branching and hydroxylation. The structural information obtained by this approach, in particular the ability to rapidly differentiate isomeric lipids, represents a useful addition to the lipidomics tool box. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.