Do Integrated Arable Farming Systems provide a more sustainable form of agricultural production: the UK case

Integrated Arable Farming Systems (IAFS) projects utilise a range of novel and different farming techniques, often associated with optimising or reducing the use of inputs. Here, data is presented from the LINK-IFS project which suggests that, although input levels are being reduced, the overall profitability of the system can be maintained. The effect of thus reduction in inputs, however, in terms of impact on key environmental indicators is unclear.

Towards a method for the economic evaluation of environmental indicators in UK Integrated Arable Farming Systems

Integrated Arable Farming Systems (IAFS), which involve a reduction in the use of off-farm inputs, are attracting considerable research interest in the UK. The objectives of these systems experiments are to compare their financial performance with that from conventional or current farming practices. To date, this comparison has taken little account of any environmental benefits (or disbenefits) of the two systems. The objective of this paper is to review the assessment methodologies available for the analysis of environmental impacts. To illustrate the results of this exercise, the methodology and environmental indicators chosen are then applied to data from one of the LINK - Integrated Farming Systems experimental sites. Data from the Pathhead site in Southern Scotland are used to evaluate the use of invertebrates and nitrate loss as environmental indicators within IAFS. The results suggest that between 1992 and 1995 the biomass of earthworms fell by 28 kg per hectare on the integrated rotation and rose by 31 kg per hectare on the conventional system. This led to environmental costs ranging between £2.24 and £13.44 per hectare for the integrated system and gains of between £2.48 and £14.88 for the conventional system. In terms of nitrate, the integrated system had an estimated loss of £72.21 per hectare in comparison to £149.40 per hectare on the conventional system. Conclusions are drawn about the advantages and disadvantages of this type of analytical framework. Keywords: Farming systems; IAFS; Environmental valuation; Economics; Earthworms; Nitrates; Soil fauna

Integrated Arable Farming Systems and their potential uptake in the UK

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general.

An analytical framework for appraising Integrated Arable Farming Systems

Integrated Arable Farming Systems are examined from the perspective of the farmer considering the use of such techniques, and data are presented which suggest that the uptake of the approach may expose the manager to a greater degree of risk. Observations are made about the possible uptake of such systems in the UK and the implications this may have for agricultural and environmental policy in general.

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Characterising North Atlantic weather patterns for climate-optimal aircraft routing

Daily weather patterns over the North Atlantic are classified into relevant types: typical weather patterns that may characterize the range of climate impacts from aviation in this region, for both summer and winter. The motivation is to provide a set of weather types to facilitate an investigation of climate-optimal aircraft routing of trans-Atlantic flights (minimizing the climate impact on a flight-by-flight basis). Using the New York to London route as an example, the time-optimal route times are shown to vary by over 60 min, to take advantage of strong tailwinds or avoid headwinds, and for eastbound routes latitude correlates well with the latitude of the jet stream. The weather patterns are classified by their similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic teleconnection patterns. For winter, five types are defined; in summer, when there is less variation in jet latitude, only three types are defined. The types can be characterized by the jet strength and position, and therefore the location of the time-optimal routes varies by type. Simple proxies for the climate impact of carbon dioxide, ozone, water vapour and contrails are defined, which depend on parameters such as the route time, latitude and season, the time spent flying in the stratosphere, and the distance over which the air is supersaturated with respect to ice. These proxies are then shown to vary between weather types and between eastbound and westbound routes.

The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms

Several studies using ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (μ) and the heat flux negative feedback (α), are here analysed in nine AMIP runs of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. We find that these models generally have improved feedbacks compared to the coupled runs which were analysed in part I of this study. The Bjerknes feedback, μ, is increased in most AMIP runs compared to the coupled run counterparts, and exhibits both positive and negative biases with respect to ERA40. As in the coupled runs, the shortwave and latent heat flux feedbacks are the two dominant components of α in the AMIP runs. We investigate the mechanisms behind these two important feedbacks, in particular focusing on the strong 1997–1998 El Niño. Biases in the shortwave flux feedback, α SW, are the main source of model uncertainty in α. Most models do not successfully represent the negative αSW in the East Pacific, primarily due to an overly strong low-cloud positive feedback in the far eastern Pacific. Biases in the cloud response to dynamical changes dominate the modelled α SW biases, though errors in the large-scale circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing also play a role. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing in the East Pacific reveals model biases in low cloud amount and optical thickness which may affect α SW. We further show that the negative latent heat flux feedback, α LH, exhibits less diversity than α SW and is primarily driven by variations in the near-surface specific humidity difference. However, biases in both the near-surface wind speed and humidity response to SST forcing can explain the inter-model αLH differences.

Geotagging photographs in student fieldwork

This resource paper provides guidance for staff and students on the potential educational benefits, limitations and applications of geotagging photographs. It also offers practical advice for geotagging photographs in a range of fieldwork settings and reviews three free smartphone applications (apps) for geotagging photographs (Flickr, Evernote and Panoramio). Geotagged photographs have the potential to encourage post-fieldwork student reflection on a landscape. A short case study of first-year undergraduates who geotagged photographs as a method of data collection is outlined. This resource paper also briefly discusses the use of student-owned devices in fieldwork which may reduce pressure on departmental budgets.

Global trends and factors associated with the illegal killing of elephants: a hierarchical bayesian analysis of carcass encounter data

Elephant poaching and the ivory trade remain high on the agenda at meetings of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Well-informed debates require robust estimates of trends, the spatial distribution of poaching, and drivers of poaching. We present an analysis of trends and drivers of an indicator of elephant poaching of all elephant species. The site-based monitoring system known as Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE), set up by the 10th Conference of the Parties of CITES in 1997, produces carcass encounter data reported mainly by anti-poaching patrols. Data analyzed were site by year totals of 6,337 carcasses from 66 sites in Africa and Asia from 2002–2009. Analysis of these observational data is a serious challenge to traditional statistical methods because of the opportunistic and non-random nature of patrols, and the heterogeneity across sites. Adopting a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach, we used the proportion of carcasses that were illegally killed (PIKE) as a poaching index, to estimate the trend and the effects of site- and country-level factors associated with poaching. Important drivers of illegal killing that emerged at country level were poor governance and low levels of human development, and at site level, forest cover and area of the site in regions where human population density is low. After a drop from 2002, PIKE remained fairly constant from 2003 until 2006, after which it increased until 2008. The results for 2009 indicate a decline. Sites with PIKE ranging from the lowest to the highest were identified. The results of the analysis provide a sound information base for scientific evidence-based decision making in the CITES process.

Inferring convective responses to El Niño with atmospheric electricity measurements at Shetland

Pacific ocean temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulate atmospheric convection and hence thunderstorm electrification. The generated current flows globally via the atmospheric electric circuit, which can be monitored anywhere on Earth. Atmospheric electricity measurements made at Shetland (in Scotland) display a mean global circuit response to ENSO that is characterized by strengthening during 'El Niño' conditions, and weakening during 'La Niña' conditions. Examining the hourly varying response indicates that a potential gradient (PG) increase around noon UT is likely to be associated with a change in atmospheric convection and resultant lightning activity over equatorial Africa and Eastern Asia. A secondary increase in PG just after midnight UT can be attributed to more shower clouds in the central Pacific ocean during an 'El Niño'.

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

Military doctrine, command philosophy and the generation of fighting power: genesis and theory

Military doctrine is one of the conceptual components of war. Its raison d’être is that of a force multiplier. It enables a smaller force to take on and defeat a larger force in battle. This article’s departure point is the aphorism of Sir Julian Corbett, who described doctrine as ‘the soul of warfare’. The second dimension to creating a force multiplier effect is forging doctrine with an appropriate command philosophy. The challenge for commanders is how, in unique circumstances, to formulate, disseminate and apply an appropriate doctrine and combine it with a relevant command philosophy. This can only be achieved by policy-makers and senior commanders successfully answering the Clausewitzian question: what kind of conflict are they involved in? Once an answer has been provided, a synthesis of these two factors can be developed and applied. Doctrine has implications for all three levels of war. Tactically, doctrine does two things: first, it helps to create a tempo of operations; second, it develops a transitory quality that will produce operational effect, and ultimately facilitate the pursuit of strategic objectives. Its function is to provide both training and instruction. At the operational level instruction and understanding are critical functions. Third, at the strategic level it provides understanding and direction. Using John Gooch’s six components of doctrine, it will be argued that there is a lacunae in the theory of doctrine as these components can manifest themselves in very different ways at the three levels of war. They can in turn affect the transitory quality of tactical operations. Doctrine is pivotal to success in war. Without doctrine and the appropriate command philosophy military operations cannot be successfully concluded against an active and determined foe.

ASSET: moving forward through feedback

Providing high quality and timely feedback to students is often a challenge for many staff in higher education as it can be both time-consuming and frustratingly repetitive. From the student perspective, feedback may sometimes be considered unhelpful, confusing and inconsistent and may not always be provided within a timeframe that is considered to be ‘useful’. The ASSET project, based at the University of Reading, addresses many of these inherent challenges by encouraging the provision of feedback that supports learning, i.e. feedback that contains elements of ‘feed-forward’, is of a high quality and is delivered in a timely manner. In particular, the project exploits the pedagogic benefits of video/audio media within a Web 2.0 context to provide a new, interactive resource, ‘ASSET’, to enhance the feedback experience for both students and staff. A preliminary analysis of both our quantitative and qualitative pedagogic data demonstrate that the ASSET project has instigated change in the ways in which both staff and students think about, deliver, and engage with feedback. For example, data from our online questionnaires and focus groups with staff and students indicate a positive response to the use of video as a medium for delivering feedback to students. In particular, the academic staff engaged in piloting the ASSET resource indicated that i) using video has made them think more, and in some cases differently, about the ways in which they deliver feedback to students and ii) they now see video as an effective means of making feedback more useful and engaging for students. Moreover, the majority of academic staff involved in the project have said they will continue to use video feedback. From the student perspective, 60% of those students whose lecturers used ASSET to provide video feedback said that “receiving video feedback encouraged me to take more notice of the feedback compared with normal methods” and 80% would like their lecturer to continue to use video as a method for providing feedback. An important aim of the project was for it to complement existing University-wide initiatives on feedback and for ASSET to become a ‘model’ resource for staff and students wishing to explore video as a medium for feedback provision. An institutional approach was therefore adopted and key members of Senior Management, academics, T&L support staff, IT support and Student Representatives were embedded within the project from the start. As with all initiatives of this kind, a major issue is the future sustainability of the ASSET resource and to have had both ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ support for the project has been extremely beneficial. In association with the project team the University is currently exploring the creation of an open-source, two-tiered video supply solution and a ‘framework’ (that other HEIs can adopt and/or adapt) to support staff in using video for feedback provision. In this way students and staff will have new opportunities to explore video and to exploit the benefits of this medium for supporting learning.

The effect of multiple haptic distractors on the performance of motion-impaired users

The effect of multiple haptic distractors on target selection performance was examined in terms of times to select the target and the associated cursor movement patterns. Two experiments examined: a) The effect of multiple haptic distractors around a single target and b) the effect of inter-item spacing in a linear selection task. It was found that certain target-distractor arrangements hindered performance and that this could be associated with specific, explanatory cursor patterns. In particular, it was found that the presence of distractors along the task axis in front of the target was detrimental to performance, and that there was evidence to suggest that this could sometimes be associated with consequent cursor oscillation between distractors adjacent to a desired target. A further experiment examined the effect of target-distractor spacing in two orientations on a user’s ability to select a target when caught in the gravity well of a distractor. Times for movements in the vertical direction were found to be faster than those in the horizontal direction. In addition, although times for the vertical direction appeared equivalent across five target-distractor distances, times for the horizontal direction exhibited peaks at certain distances. The implications of these results for the design and implementation of haptically enhanced interfaces using the force feedback mouse are discussed.

The North Atlantic jet stream under climate change and its relation to the NAO and EA patterns

This paper describes recent variations of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream and analyzes the mean response of the jet to anthropogenic forcing in climate models. Jet stream changes are analyzed both using a direct measure of the near-surface westerly wind maximum and using an EOF-based approach. This allows jet stream changes to be related to the widely used leading patterns of variability: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic (EA) pattern. Viewed in NAO–EA state space, isolines of jet latitude and speed resemble a distorted polar coordinate system, highlighting the dependence of the jet stream quantities on both spatial patterns. Some differences in the results of the two methods are discussed, but both approaches agree on the general characteristics of the climate models. While there is some agreement between models on a poleward shift of the jet stream in response to anthropogenic forcing, there is still considerable spread between different model projections, especially in winter. Furthermore, the model responses to forcing are often weaker than their biases when compared to a reanalysis. Diagnoses of jet stream changes can be sensitive to the methodologies used, and several aspects of this are also discussed.