Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

AbstractBackground:Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains a challenge.Objectives:To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI.Methods:The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI), EuroSCORE II (ESII), Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score, Ambler score (AS) and Guaragna score (GS). The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test) and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC)].Results:The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic) was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42) for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16) for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68) for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64) for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05).Conclusions:In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Discriminative classifiers for speaker recognition

Speaker Recognition, Speaker Verification, Sparse Kernel Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine

Predictors of Arrhythmic Events Detected by Implantable Loop Recorders in Renal Transplant Candidates

AbstractBackground:The recording of arrhythmic events (AE) in renal transplant candidates (RTCs) undergoing dialysis is limited by conventional electrocardiography. However, continuous cardiac rhythm monitoring seems to be more appropriate due to automatic detection of arrhythmia, but this method has not been used.Objective:We aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of AE in RTCs using an implantable loop recorder (ILR).Methods:A prospective observational study conducted from June 2009 to January 2011 included 100 consecutive ambulatory RTCs who underwent ILR and were followed-up for at least 1 year. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to define predictors of AE.Results:During a mean follow-up of 424 ± 127 days, AE could be detected in 98% of patients, and 92% had more than one type of arrhythmia, with most considered potentially not serious. Sustained atrial tachycardia and atrial fibrillation occurred in 7% and 13% of patients, respectively, and bradyarrhythmia and non-sustained or sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) occurred in 25% and 57%, respectively. There were 18 deaths, of which 7 were sudden cardiac events: 3 bradyarrhythmias, 1 ventricular fibrillation, 1 myocardial infarction, and 2 undetermined. The presence of a long QTc (odds ratio [OR] = 7.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01–26.35; p = 0.002), and the duration of the PR interval (OR = 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02–1.08; p < 0.001) were independently associated with bradyarrhythmias. Left ventricular dilatation (LVD) was independently associated with non-sustained VT (OR = 2.83; 95% CI, 1.01–7.96; p = 0.041).Conclusions:In medium-term follow-up of RTCs, ILR helped detect a high incidence of AE, most of which did not have clinical relevance. The PR interval and presence of long QTc were predictive of bradyarrhythmias, whereas LVD was predictive of non-sustained VT.

Incidence and Predictors of Cardiovascular Complications and Death after Vascular Surgery

AbstractBackground:Patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery are considered at increased risk for post-operative complications.Objective:To assess the incidence and predictors of complications and death, as well as the performance of two models of risk stratification, in vascular surgery.Methods:This study determined the incidence of cardiovascular complications and deaths within 30 days from surgery in adults. Univariate comparison and logistic regression assessed the risk factors associated with the outcomes, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assessed the discriminatory capacity of the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and vascular study group of New England cardiac risk index (VSG-CRI).Results:141 patients (mean age, 66 years; 65% men) underwent the following surgeries: carotid (15); lower limbs (65); abdominal aorta (56); and others (5). Cardiovascular complications and death occurred within 30 days in 28 (19.9%) and 20 (14.2%) patients, respectively. The risk predictors were: age, obesity, stroke, poor functional capacity, altered scintigraphy, surgery of the aorta, and troponin change. The scores RCRI and VSG-CRI had area under the curve of 0.635 and 0.639 for early cardiovascular complications, and 0.562 and 0.610 for death in 30 days.Conclusion:In this small and selected group of patients undergoing arterial vascular surgery, the incidence of adverse events was elevated. The risk assessment indices RCRI and VSG-CRI did not perform well for complications within 30 days.

Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Association between Functional Variables and Heart Failure after Myocardial Infarction in Rats

Background: Heart failure prediction after acute myocardial infarction may have important clinical implications. Objective: To analyze the functional echocardiographic variables associated with heart failure in an infarction model in rats. Methods: The animals were divided into two groups: control and infarction. Subsequently, the infarcted animals were divided into groups: with and without heart failure. The predictive values were assessed by logistic regression. The cutoff values predictive of heart failure were determined using ROC curves. Results: Six months after surgery, 88 infarcted animals and 43 control animals were included in the study. Myocardial infarction increased left cavity diameters and the mass and wall thickness of the left ventricle. Additionally, myocardial infarction resulted in systolic and diastolic dysfunction, characterized by lower area variation fraction values, posterior wall shortening velocity, E-wave deceleration time, associated with higher values of E / A ratio and isovolumic relaxation time adjusted by heart rate. Among the infarcted animals, 54 (61%) developed heart failure. Rats with heart failure have higher left cavity mass index and diameter, associated with worsening of functional variables. The area variation fraction, the E/A ratio, E-wave deceleration time and isovolumic relaxation time adjusted by heart rate were functional variables predictors of heart failure. The cutoff values of functional variables associated with heart failure were: area variation fraction < 31.18%; E / A > 3.077; E-wave deceleration time < 42.11 and isovolumic relaxation time adjusted by heart rate < 69.08. Conclusion: In rats followed for 6 months after myocardial infarction, the area variation fraction, E/A ratio, E-wave deceleration time and isovolumic relaxation time adjusted by heart rate are predictors of heart failure onset.

Very Long-Term Prognostic Role of Admission BNP in Non-ST Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndrome

Abstract Background: BNP has been extensively evaluated to determine short- and intermediate-term prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome, but its role in long-term mortality is not known. Objective: To determine the very long-term prognostic role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) for all-cause mortality in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS). Methods: A cohort of 224 consecutive patients with NSTEACS, prospectively seen in the Emergency Department, had BNP measured on arrival to establish prognosis, and underwent a median 9.34-year follow-up for all-cause mortality. Results: Unstable angina was diagnosed in 52.2%, and non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction, in 47.8%. Median admission BNP was 81.9 pg/mL (IQ range = 22.2; 225) and mortality rate was correlated with increasing BNP quartiles: 14.3; 16.1; 48.2; and 73.2% (p < 0.0001). ROC curve disclosed 100 pg/mL as the best BNP cut-off value for mortality prediction (area under the curve = 0.789, 95% CI= 0.723-0.854), being a strong predictor of late mortality: BNP < 100 = 17.3% vs. BNP ≥ 100 = 65.0%, RR = 3.76 (95% CI = 2.49-5.63, p < 0.001). On logistic regression analysis, age >72 years (OR = 3.79, 95% CI = 1.62-8.86, p = 0.002), BNP ≥ 100 pg/mL (OR = 6.24, 95% CI = 2.95-13.23, p < 0.001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99, p = 0.049) were independent late-mortality predictors. Conclusions: BNP measured at hospital admission in patients with NSTEACS is a strong, independent predictor of very long-term all-cause mortality. This study allows raising the hypothesis that BNP should be measured in all patients with NSTEACS at the index event for long-term risk stratification.

Correlation of Insulin Resistance with Anthropometric Measures and Blood Pressure in Adolescents

Abstract Background: Blood pressure is directly related to body mass index, and individuals with increased waist circumference have higher risk of developing hypertension, insulin resistance, and other metabolic changes, since adolescence. Objective: to evaluate the correlation of blood pressure with insulin resistance, waist circumference and body mass index in adolescents. Methods: Cross-section study on a representative sample of adolescent students. One group of adolescents with altered blood pressure detected by casual blood pressure and/or home blood pressure monitoring (blood pressure > 90th percentile) and one group of normotensive adolescents were studied. Body mass index, waist circumference were measured, and fasting glucose and plasma insulin levels were determined, using the HOMA-IR index to identify insulin resistance. Results: A total of 162 adolescents (35 with normal blood pressure and 127 with altered blood pressure) were studied; 61% (n = 99) of them were boys and the mean age was 14.9 ± 1.62 years. Thirty-eight (23.5%) adolescents had altered HOMA-IR. The group with altered blood pressure had higher values of waist circumference, body mass index and HOMA-IR (p<0.05). Waist circumference was higher among boys in both groups (p<0.05) and girls with altered blood pressure had higher HOMA-IR than boys (p<0.05). There was a significant moderate correlation between body mass index and HOMA-IR in the group with altered blood pressure (ρ = 0.394; p < 0.001), and such correlation was stronger than in the normotensive group. There was also a significant moderate correlation between waist circumference and HOMA-IR in both groups (ρ = 0.345; p < 0.05). Logistic regression showed that HOMA-IR was as predictor of altered blood pressure (odds ratio - OR = 2.0; p = 0.001). Conclusion: There was a significant association of insulin resistance with blood pressure and the impact of insulin resistance on blood pressure since childhood. The correlation and association between markers of cardiovascular diseases was more pronounced in adolescents with altered blood pressure, suggesting that primary prevention strategies for cardiovascular risk factors should be early implemented in childhood and adolescence.

Early Markers of Atherosclerotic Disease in Individuals with Excess Weight and Dyslipidemia

Abstract Background: Excessive weight is a cardiovascular risk factor since it generates a chronic inflammatory process that aggravates the endothelial function. Objective: To evaluate the endothelial function in individuals with excess weight and mild dyslipidemia using brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (BAFMD), and the association of endothelial function with anthropometric and biochemical variables. Methods: Cross-sectional study that included 74 individuals and evaluated anthropometric variables (body mass index [BMI], waist-hip ratio [WHR], waist circumference [AC], and percentage of body fat [PBF]), biochemical (blood glucose, insulinemia, ultrasensitive C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and LDL-cholesterol) and endothelial function (BAFMD, evaluated by ultrasound). The statistical analysis was performed with SPSS, version 16.0. To study the association between the variables, we used chi-square, Student's t and Mann-Whitney tests, and Pearson's correlation. Logistic regression analyzed the independent influence of the factors. Values of p < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: The participants had a mean age of 50.8 years, and 57% were female. BMI, WC, WHR, and PBF showed no significant association with BAFMD. The male gender (p = 0.02) and higher serum levels of fibrinogen (p = 0.02) were significantly and independently associated with a BAFMD below 8%. Conclusions: In individuals with excess weight and mild untreated dyslipidemia, male gender and higher levels of fibrinogen were independently associated with worse BAFMD.

Prevalence of Risk for Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome and Association With Risk Factors in Primary Care

Abstract Background: Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a chronic, progressive disease with high morbidity and mortality. It is underdiagnosed, especially among women. Objective: To study the prevalence of high risk for OSAS globally and for the Berlin Questionnaire (BQ) categories, and to evaluate the reliability of the BQ use in the population studied. Methods: Observational, cross-sectional study with individuals from the Niterói Family Doctor Program, randomly selected, aged between 45 and 99 years. The visits occurred between August/2011 and December/2012. Variables associated with each BQ category and with high risk for OSAS (global) were included in logistic regression models (p < 0.05). Results: Of the total (616), 403 individuals (65.4%) reported snoring. The prevalence of high risk for OSA was 42.4%, being 49.7% for category I, 10.2% for category II and 77.6% for category III. Conclusion: BQ showed an acceptable reliability after excluding the questions Has anyone noticed that you stop breathing during your sleep? and Have you ever dozed off or fallen asleep while driving?. This should be tested in further studies with samples mostly comprised of women and low educational level individuals. Given the burden of OSAS-related diseases and risks, studies should be conducted to validate new tools and to adapt BQ to better screen OSAS.

Association between Spirituality and Adherence to Management in Outpatients with Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Spirituality may influence how patients cope with their illness. Objectives: We assessed whether spirituality may influence adherence to management of outpatients with heart failure. Methods: Cross sectional study enrolling consecutive ambulatory heart failure patients in whom adherence to multidisciplinary treatment was evaluated. Patients were assessed for quality of life, depression, religiosity and spirituality utilizing validated questionnaires. Correlations between adherence and psychosocial variables of interest were obtained. Logistic regression models explored independent predictors of adherence. Results: One hundred and thirty patients (age 60 ± 13 years; 67% male) were interviewed. Adequate adherence score was observed in 38.5% of the patients. Neither depression nor religiosity was correlated to adherence, when assessed separately. Interestingly, spirituality, when assessed by both total score sum (r = 0.26; p = 0.003) and by all specific domains, was positively correlated to adherence. Finally, the combination of spirituality, religiosity and personal beliefs was an independent predictor of adherence when adjusted for demographics, clinical characteristics and psychosocial instruments. Conclusion: Spirituality, religiosity and personal beliefs were the only variables consistently associated with compliance to medication in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure. Our data suggest that adequately addressing these aspects on patient’s care may lead to an improvement in adherence patterns in the complex heart failure management.

Buccal apparatus and gastrointestinal tract dimensions associated to the diet of early life stages of Centropomus undecimalis (Centropomidae, Actinopterygii)

The present study aims to compare the buccal apparatus and gastrointestinal tract of early life stages of Centropomus undecimalis (Bloch, 1792), and relate them to its diet. A total of 190 individuals collected with a channel net in the Catuama estuary (07º40'9.9''S, 34º50'36.7''W), northern coast of the state of Pernambuco, were examined. Morphometrical and meristic data were analyzed for the two initial developmental periods (larval and juvenile). Their digestive tube was morphologically characterized and its content identified. The longest transverse axis of food items was measured, and compared to the standard length (SL) and mouth gape size (D) of the individuals. Body measurement regressions differed significantly (p<0.001) between larvae and juveniles. The stomachs with food content (n=118 individuals) presented a proportion of 62% full and 30% empty (being 8% damaged). They differed in relation to the fullness level and presented a coiled shape when empty. The number of food items in relation to SL and D did not present an evident correlation. Larvae (SL<10 mm) feed on small copepods, while juveniles (SL=11.1 to 64.7 mm) ingest larvae of various decapod species, showing a distinct diet between these initial developmental stages.

Effect of temperature on the survival and growth of freshwater prawns Macrobrachium borellii and Palaemonetes argentinus (Crustacea, Palaemonidae)

During the two-month rearing period, the effect of four water temperatures (15°C, 20°C, 25°C and 30°C) on survival rate, number of molts, and growth rate (molt increment and intermolt period) of juvenile Macrobrachium borellii Nobili, 1896 and Palaemonetes argentinus Nobili, 1901 prawns was evaluated in laboratory conditions. The two species showed some similarities in their both survival and growth pattern at different temperatures. The survival rate was highest at 20°C and 25°C, decreasing at the lowest temperature. The number of molts increased at higher temperatures, ranging the intermolt period from 22.2 days to 9.9 days, for M. borellii, and from 20.8 to 9.5 days for P. argentinus, corresponding those values to 15°C and 30°C, respectively. No difference between species was noted in the intermolt period. The size increment by molting increased significantly from 15°C to 25°C, whereas a reduction in the growth of prawns was observed at 30°C. Significant differences among temperatures were found in the slope of regressions between the size increment by molting and the cephalothorax length. M. borellii showed a significantly higher tolerance to elevated temperature and a faster growth (about twice at 25°C) than P. argentinus. These differences could provide M. borellii a competitive advantage for a better adaptation to the dynamic of freshwater environment, especially in areas with anthropogenic impact.

The relative growth and sexual maturity of the freshwater crab Dilocarcinus pagei (Brachyura, Trichodactylidae) in the northwestern region of the state of São Paulo

The aim of the present study was to determine the size at sexual maturity in the freshwater crab Dilocarcinus pagei Stimpson, 1861, from a population located in Mendonça, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The crabs were sampled monthly (July 2005 to June 2007), at Barra Mansa reservoir. The specimens were captured manually or in sieves passed through the aquatic vegetation. The crabs were captured and separated by sex based on morphology of the pleon and on the number of pleopods. The following dimensions were measured: carapace width (CW); carapace length (CL); propodus length (PL); and abdomen width (AW). The morphological analysis of the gonads was used to identify and categorize individuals according to their stage of development. The morphological maturity was estimated based on the analysis of relative growth based on the allometric equation y = ax b. The gonadal maturity was based on the morphology of the gonads by the method CW50 which indicates the size at which 50% of the individuals in the population showed gonads morphologically mature to reproduction. The biometric relationships that best demonstrated the different patterns of growth for the juvenile and adult stages were CW vs. PL for males and CW vs. AW for females (p<0.001). Based on these relationships, the estimated value to morphological sexual maturity was 21.5 mm (CW) in males and 19.7 mm (CW) in females. The determination of the size at sexual maturity and the adjustment of the data based on the logistic curve (CW50) resulted in a size of 38.2 mm for males and 39.4 mm for females (CW). Based on the data obtained for sexual maturity for D. pagei, we can estimate a minimum size for capture of 40 mm (CW). This minimum size allows at least half of the population to reproduce and retains the juveniles and a portion of the adults in the population.

Assessing the structural change of strategic mobility: determinants under hypercompetitive environments

The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.