Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.

Nonlinear optics with cold Rb atoms using tapered optical nanofibres

Optical nanofibres (ONFs) are very thin optical waveguides with sub-wavelength diameters. ONFs have very high evanescent fields and the guided light is confined strongly in the transverse direction. These fibres can be used to achieve strong light-matter interactions. Atoms around the waist of an ONF can be probed by collecting the atomic fluorescence coupling or by measuring the transmission (or the polarisation) of the probe beam sent through it. This thesis presents experiments using ONFs for probing and manipulating laser-cooled 87Rb atoms. As an initial experiment, a single mode ONF was integrated into a magneto-optical trap (MOT) and used for measuring the characteristics of the MOT, such as the loading time and the average temperature of the atom cloud. The effect of a near-resonant probe beam on the local temperature of the cold atoms has been studied. Next, the ONF was used for manipulating the atoms in the evanescent fields region in order to generate nonlinear optical effects. Four-wave mixing, ac Stark effect (Autler-Townes splitting) and electromagnetically induced transparency have been observed at unprecedented ultralow power levels. In another experiment, a few-mode ONF, supporting only the fundamental mode and the first higher order mode group, has been used for studying cold atoms. A higher pumping rate of the atomic fluorescence into the higher order fibreguided modes and more interactions with the surrounding atoms for higher order mode evanescent light, when compared to signals for the fundamental mode, have been identified. The results obtained in the thesis are particularly for a fundamental understanding of light-atom interactions when atoms are near a dielectric surface and also for the development of fibre-based quantum information technologies. Atoms coupled to ONFs could be used for preparing intrinsically fibre-coupled quantum nodes for quantum computing and the studies presented here are significant for a detailed understanding of such a system.

MOVPE growth and characterization of Al(Ga)N and InAlN/AlGaN quantum wells for UV LED applications

The study of III-nitride materials (InN, GaN and AlN) gained huge research momentum after breakthroughs in the production light emitting diodes (LEDs) and laser diodes (LDs) over the past two decades. Last year, the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded jointly to Isamu Akasaki, Hiroshi Amano and Shuji Nakamura for inventing a new energy efficient and environmental friendly light source: blue light-emitting diode (LED) from III-nitride semiconductors in the early 1990s. Nowadays, III-nitride materials not only play an increasingly important role in the lighting technology, but also become prospective candidates in other areas, for example, the high frequency (RF) high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) and photovoltaics. These devices require the growth of high quality III-nitride films, which can be prepared using metal organic vapour phase epitaxy (MOVPE). The main aim of my thesis is to study and develop the growth of III-nitride films, including AlN, u-AlGaN, Si-doped AlGaN, and InAlN, serving as sample wafers for fabrication of ultraviolet (UV) LEDs, in order to replace the conventional bulky, expensive and environmentally harmful mercury lamp as new UV light sources. For application to UV LEDs, reducing the threading dislocation density (TDD) in AlN epilayers on sapphire substrates is a key parameter for achieving high-efficiency AlGaNbased UV emitters. In Chapter 4, after careful and systematic optimisation， a working set of conditions, the screw and edge type dislocation density in the AlN were reduced to around 2.2×108 cm-2 and 1.3×109 cm-2 , respectively, using an optimized three-step process, as estimated by TEM. An atomically smooth surface with an RMS roughness of around 0.3 nm achieved over 5×5 µm 2 AFM scale. Furthermore, the motion of the steps in a one dimension model has been proposed to describe surface morphology evolution, especially the step bunching feature found under non-optimal conditions. In Chapter 5, control of alloy composition and the maintenance of compositional uniformity across a growing epilayer surface were demonstrated for the development of u-AlGaN epilayers. Optimized conditions (i.e. a high growth temperature of 1245 °C) produced uniform and smooth film with a low RMS roughness of around 2 nm achieved in 20×20 µm 2 AFM scan. The dopant that is most commonly used to obtain n-type conductivity in AlxGa1-xN is Si. However, the incorporation of Si has been found to increase the strain relaxation and promote unintentional incorporation of other impurities (O and C) during Si-doped AlGaN growth. In Chapter 6, reducing edge-type TDs is observed to be an effective appoach to improve the electric and optical properties of Si-doped AlGaN epilayers. In addition, the maximum electron concentration of 1.3×1019 cm-3 and 6.4×1018 cm-3 were achieved in Si-doped Al0.48Ga0.52N and Al0.6Ga0.4N epilayers as measured using Hall effect. Finally, in Chapter 7, studies on the growth of InAlN/AlGaN multiple quantum well (MQW) structures were performed, and exposing InAlN QW to a higher temperature during the ramp to the growth temperature of AlGaN barrier (around 1100 °C) will suffer a significant indium (In) desorption. To overcome this issue, quasi-two-tempeature (Q2T) technique was applied to protect InAlN QW. After optimization, an intense UV emission from MQWs has been observed in the UV spectral range from 320 to 350 nm measured by room temperature photoluminescence.

Retrieval of grassland biophysical parameters using multitemporal optical and radar satellite data

The amount and quality of available biomass is a key factor for the sustainable livestock industry and agricultural management related decision making. Globally 31.5% of land cover is grassland while 80% of Ireland’s agricultural land is grassland. In Ireland, grasslands are intensively managed and provide the cheapest feed source for animals. This dissertation presents a detailed state of the art review of satellite remote sensing of grasslands, and the potential application of optical (Moderate–resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)) and radar (TerraSAR-X) time series imagery to estimate the grassland biomass at two study sites (Moorepark and Grange) in the Republic of Ireland using both statistical and state of the art machine learning algorithms. High quality weather data available from the on-site weather station was also used to calculate the Growing Degree Days (GDD) for Grange to determine the impact of ancillary data on biomass estimation. In situ and satellite data covering 12 years for the Moorepark and 6 years for the Grange study sites were used to predict grassland biomass using multiple linear regression, Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) models. The results demonstrate that a dense (8-day composite) MODIS image time series, along with high quality in situ data, can be used to retrieve grassland biomass with high performance (R2 = 0:86; p < 0:05, RMSE = 11.07 for Moorepark). The model for Grange was modified to evaluate the synergistic use of vegetation indices derived from remote sensing time series and accumulated GDD information. As GDD is strongly linked to the plant development, or phonological stage, an improvement in biomass estimation would be expected. It was observed that using the ANFIS model the biomass estimation accuracy increased from R2 = 0:76 (p < 0:05) to R2 = 0:81 (p < 0:05) and the root mean square error was reduced by 2.72%. The work on the application of optical remote sensing was further developed using a TerraSAR-X Staring Spotlight mode time series over the Moorepark study site to explore the extent to which very high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data of interferometrically coherent paddocks can be exploited to retrieve grassland biophysical parameters. After filtering out the non-coherent plots it is demonstrated that interferometric coherence can be used to retrieve grassland biophysical parameters (i. e., height, biomass), and that it is possible to detect changes due to the grass growth, and grazing and mowing events, when the temporal baseline is short (11 days). However, it not possible to automatically uniquely identify the cause of these changes based only on the SAR backscatter and coherence, due to the ambiguity caused by tall grass laid down due to the wind. Overall, the work presented in this dissertation has demonstrated the potential of dense remote sensing and weather data time series to predict grassland biomass using machine-learning algorithms, where high quality ground data were used for training. At present a major limitation for national scale biomass retrieval is the lack of spatial and temporal ground samples, which can be partially resolved by minor modifications in the existing PastureBaseIreland database by adding the location and extent ofeach grassland paddock in the database. As far as remote sensing data requirements are concerned, MODIS is useful for large scale evaluation but due to its coarse resolution it is not possible to detect the variations within the fields and between the fields at the farm scale. However, this issue will be resolved in terms of spatial resolution by the Sentinel-2 mission, and when both satellites (Sentinel-2A and Sentinel-2B) are operational the revisit time will reduce to 5 days, which together with Landsat-8, should enable sufficient cloud-free data for operational biomass estimation at a national scale. The Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) approach is feasible if there are enough coherent interferometric pairs available, however this is difficult to achieve due to the temporal decorrelation of the signal. For repeat-pass InSAR over a vegetated area even an 11 days temporal baseline is too large. In order to achieve better coherence a very high resolution is required at the cost of spatial coverage, which limits its scope for use in an operational context at a national scale. Future InSAR missions with pair acquisition in Tandem mode will minimize the temporal decorrelation over vegetation areas for more focused studies. The proposed approach complements the current paradigm of Big Data in Earth Observation, and illustrates the feasibility of integrating data from multiple sources. In future, this framework can be used to build an operational decision support system for retrieval of grassland biophysical parameters based on data from long term planned optical missions (e. g., Landsat, Sentinel) that will ensure the continuity of data acquisition. Similarly, Spanish X-band PAZ and TerraSAR-X2 missions will ensure the continuity of TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed.

A tight-binding analysis of the electronic properties of III-nitride semiconductors

This thesis divides into two distinct parts, both of which are underpinned by the tight-binding model. The first part covers our implementation of the tight-binding model in conjunction with the Berry phase theory of electronic polarisation to probe the atomistic origins of spontaneous polarisation and piezoelectricity as well as attempting to accurately calculate the values and coefficients associated with these phenomena. We first develop an analytic model for the polarisation of a one-dimensional linear chain of atoms. We compare the zincblende and ideal wurtzite structures in terms of effective charges, spontaneous polarisation and piezoelectric coefficients, within a first nearest neighbour tight-binding model. We further compare these to real wurtzite structures and conclude that accurate quantitative results are beyond the scope of this model but qualitative trends can still be described. The second part of this thesis deals with implementing the tight-binding model to investigate the effect of local alloy fluctuations in bulk AlGaN alloys and InGaN quantum wells. We calculate the band gap evolution of Al1_xGaxN across the full composition range and compare it to experiment as well as fitting bowing parameters to the band gap as well as to the conduction band and valence band edges. We also investigate the wavefunction character of the valence band edge to determine the composition at which the optical polarisation switches in Al1_xGaxN alloys. Finally, we examine electron and hole localisation in InGaN quantum wells. We show how the built-in field localises the carriers along the c-axis and how local alloy fluctuations strongly localise the highest hole states in the c-plane, while the electrons remain delocalised in the c-plane. We show how this localisation affects the charge density overlap and also investigate the effect of well width fluctuations on the localisation of the electrons.

Optically injected multi-mode semiconductor lasers

As a device, the laser is an elegant conglomerate of elementary physical theories and state-of-the-art techniques ranging from quantum mechanics, thermal and statistical physics, material growth and non-linear mathematics. The laser has been a commercial success in medicine and telecommunication while driving the development of highly optimised devices specifically designed for a plethora of uses. Due to their low-cost and large-scale predictability many aspects of modern life would not function without the lasers. However, the laser is also a window into a system that is strongly emulated by non-linear mathematical systems and are an exceptional apparatus in the development of non-linear dynamics and is often used in the teaching of non-trivial mathematics. While single-mode semiconductor lasers have been well studied, a unified comparison of single and two-mode lasers is still needed to extend the knowledge of semiconductor lasers, as well as testing the limits of current model. Secondly, this work aims to utilise the optically injected semiconductor laser as a tool so study non-linear phenomena in other fields of study, namely ’Rogue waves’ that have been previously witnessed in oceanography and are suspected as having non-linear origins. The first half of this thesis includes a reliable and fast technique to categorise the dynamical state of optically injected two mode and single mode lasers. Analysis of the experimentally obtained time-traces revealed regions of various dynamics and allowed the automatic identification of their respective stability. The impact of this method is also extended to the detection regions containing bi-stabilities. The second half of the thesis presents an investigation into the origins of Rogue Waves in single mode lasers. After confirming their existence in single mode lasers, their distribution in time and sudden appearance in the time-series is studied to justify their name. An examination is also performed into the existence of paths that make Rogue Waves possible and the impact of noise on their distribution is also studied.

Droplet etching of deep nanoholes for filling with self-aligned complex quantum structures

Strain-free epitaxial quantum dots (QDs) are fabricated by a combination of Al local droplet etching (LDE) of nanoholes in AlGaAs surfaces and subsequent hole filling with GaAs. The whole process is performed in a conventional molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) chamber. Autocorrelation measurements establish single-photon emission from LDE QDs with a very small correlation function g (2)(0)≃ 0.01 of the exciton emission. Here, we focus on the influence of the initial hole depth on the QD optical properties with the goal to create deep holes suited for filling with more complex nanostructures like quantum dot molecules (QDM). The depth of droplet etched nanoholes is controlled by the droplet material coverage and the process temperature, where a higher coverage or temperature yields deeper holes. The requirements of high quantum dot uniformity and narrow luminescence linewidth, which are often found in applications, set limits to the process temperature. At high temperatures, the hole depths become inhomogeneous and the linewidth rapidly increases beyond 640 °C. With the present process technique, we identify an upper limit of 40-nm hole depth if the linewidth has to remain below 100 μeV. Furthermore, we study the exciton fine-structure splitting which is increased from 4.6 μeV in 15-nm-deep to 7.9 μeV in 35-nm-deep holes. As an example for the functionalization of deep nanoholes, self-aligned vertically stacked GaAs QD pairs are fabricated by filling of holes with 35 nm depth. Exciton peaks from stacked dots show linewidths below 100 μeV which is close to that from single QDs.

Temperature measurement of cold atoms using transient absorption of a resonant probe through an optical nanofibre

Optical nanofibres are ultrathin optical fibres with a waist diameter typically less than the wavelength of light being guided through them. Cold atoms can couple to the evanescent field of the nanofibre-guided modes and such systems are emerging as promising technologies for the development of atom-photon hybrid quantum devices. Atoms within the evanescent field region of an optical nanofibre can be probed by sending near or on-resonant light through the fibre; however, the probe light can detrimentally affect the properties of the atoms. In this paper, we report on the modification of the local temperature of laser-cooled 87Rb atoms in a magneto-optical trap centred around an optical nanofibre when near-resonant probe light propagates through it. A transient absorption technique has been used to measure the temperature of the affected atoms and temperature variations from 160 μk to 850 μk, for a probe power ranging from 0 to 50 nW, have been observed. This effect could have implications in relation to using optical nanofibres for probing and manipulating cold or ultracold atoms.

Chlorine Contribution to Quantitative Structure and Activity Relationship Models of Disinfection By-Products' Quantum Chemical Descriptors and Toxicities

Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) has been applied extensively in predicting toxicity of Disinfection By-Products (DBPs) in drinking water. Among many toxicological properties, acute and chronic toxicities of DBPs have been widely used in health risk assessment of DBPs. These toxicities are correlated with molecular properties, which are usually correlated with molecular descriptors. The primary goals of this thesis are: 1) to investigate the effects of molecular descriptors (e.g., chlorine number) on molecular properties such as energy of the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (ELUMO) via QSAR modelling and analysis; 2) to validate the models by using internal and external cross-validation techniques; 3) to quantify the model uncertainties through Taylor and Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the very important ways to predict molecular properties such as ELUMO is using QSAR analysis. In this study, number of chlorine (NCl) and number of carbon (NC) as well as energy of the highest occupied molecular orbital (EHOMO) are used as molecular descriptors. There are typically three approaches used in QSAR model development: 1) Linear or Multi-linear Regression (MLR); 2) Partial Least Squares (PLS); and 3) Principle Component Regression (PCR). In QSAR analysis, a very critical step is model validation after QSAR models are established and before applying them to toxicity prediction. The DBPs to be studied include five chemical classes: chlorinated alkanes, alkenes, and aromatics. In addition, validated QSARs are developed to describe the toxicity of selected groups (i.e., chloro-alkane and aromatic compounds with a nitro- or cyano group) of DBP chemicals to three types of organisms (e.g., Fish, T. pyriformis, and P.pyosphoreum) based on experimental toxicity data from the literature. The results show that: 1) QSAR models to predict molecular property built by MLR, PLS or PCR can be used either to select valid data points or to eliminate outliers; 2) The Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation procedure by itself is not enough to give a reliable representation of the predictive ability of the QSAR models, however, Leave-Many-Out/K-fold cross-validation and external validation can be applied together to achieve more reliable results; 3) ELUMO are shown to correlate highly with the NCl for several classes of DBPs; and 4) According to uncertainty analysis using Taylor method, the uncertainty of QSAR models is contributed mostly from NCl for all DBP classes.

Growth and photosynthesis of a diatom Cylindrotheca closterium grown under elevated CO2 in the presence of solar UV radiation

The combination of elevated CO2 and the increased acidity in surface oceans is likely to have an impact on photosynthesis via its effects on inorganic carbon speciation and on the overall energetics of phytoplankton. Exposure to UV radiation (UVR) may also have a role in the response to elevated CO2 and acidification, due to the fact that UVR may variously impact on photosynthesis and because of the energy demand of UVR defense. The cell may gain energy by down-regulating the CO2 concentrating mechanism, which may lead to a greater ability to cope with UVR and/or higher growth rates. In order to clarify the interplay of cell responses to increasing CO2 and UVR, we investigated the photosynthetic response of the marine and estuarine diatom Cylindrotheca closterium f. minutissima cultured at either 390 (ambient) or 800 (elevated) ppmv CO2, while exposed to solar radiation with or without UVR (UVR, 280-400 nm). After a 6 day acclimation period, the growth rate of cells was little affected by elevated CO2 and no obvious correlation with the radiation dose (for both PAR and PAR + UV treatments) could be detected. However, the relative electron transport rate was reduced and was more sensitive to UVR in cells main - tained at elevated CO2 as compared to cells cultured at ambient CO2. The CO2 concentrating mechanism was down regulated at 800 ppmv CO2, but was apparently not completely switched off. These data are discussed with respect to their significance in the context of global climate change.

Highly linear reconfigurable UWB filters with independently controlled dual bandnotch

This letter proposes a high-linearity reconfigurable lower ultra-wideband (3.1–5.25 GHz) filter with independently controlled dual bandnotch at WiMAX 3.5 GHz band and satellite communication systems 4.2 GHz band. Reconfigurability has been achieved by the implementation of Graphene based switches (simulation only) and PIN diodes (measurements). The simulation and measurement results in OFF state show an entire bandpass response from 3.1 GHz to 5.25 GHz and with a very low insertion loss. In ON state, the results show that sharp rejections at 3.5 GHz and 4.2 GHz are achieved, with a low passband insertion loss. The two bandnotch operate independently of each other; thus allowing to control the behaviour of the required bandnotch. The third order intermodulation products were also measured in OFF and ON states and the linearity results have been presented. The filter is able to achieve a high performance with good linearity and no significant loss.

A disappearing act performed by magnesium: the nucleotide exchange mechanism of Ran GTPase by Quantum mechanics/Molecular mechanics studies

The Ran GTPase protein is a guanine nucleotide-binding protein (GNBP) with an acknowledged profile in cancer onset, progression and metastases. The complex mechanism adopted by GNBPs in exchanging GDP for GTP is an intriguing process and crucial for Ran viability. The successful completion of the process is a fundamental aspect of propagating downstream signalling events. QM/MM molecular dynamics simulations were employed in this study to provide a deeper mechanistic understanding of the initiation of nucleotide exchange in Ran. Results indicate significant disruption of the metal-binding site upon interaction with RCC1 (the Ran guanine nucleotide exchange factor), overall culminating in the prominent shift of the divalent magnesium ion. The observed ion drifting is reasoned to occur as a consequence of the complex formation between Ran and RCC1 and is postulated to be a critical factor in the exchange process adopted by Ran. This is the first report to observe and detail such intricate dynamics for a protein in Ras superfamily.

Non-Gaussian distribution of collective operators in quantum spin chains

We numerically analyse the behavior of the full distribution of collective observables in quantum spin chains. While most of previous studies of quantum critical phenomena are limited to the first moments, here we demonstrate how quantum fluctuations at criticality lead to highly non-Gaussian distributions. Interestingly, we show that the distributions for different system sizes collapse on thesame curve after scaling for a wide range of transitions: first and second order quantum transitions and transitions of the Berezinskii–Kosterlitz–Thouless type. We propose and analyse the feasibility of an experimental reconstruction of the distribution using light–matter interfaces for atoms in optical lattices or in optical resonators.