Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Change in convergence and accommodation after two weeks of eye exercises in typical young adults

Abstract: Introduction Although eye exercises appear to help heterophoria, convergence insufficiency and intermittent strabismus, true treatment effects can be confounded by placebo, practice and encouragement factors. This study assessed objective changes in vergence and accommodation responses in typical naïve young adults after two weeks of exercises compared to control conditions to assess the extent of treatment effects occur above other factors. Methods 156 asymptomatic young adults were randomly assigned to 6 exercise groups or 2 no-treatment groups. Treatment targeted i) accommodation, ii)vergence, iii) both, iv) convergence>accommodation, v)accommodation>convergence, or vi) a placebo. All were re-tested under identical conditions, except for the second control group who were additionally encouraged during testing. Objective accommodation and vergence were assessed to a range of targets moving in depth containing combinations of blur, disparity and proximity/looming cues. Results Response gain improved more for less naturalistic targets where more improvement was possible. Convergence exercises improved vergence for near across all targets (P=.035). Mean accommodation changed similarly,but non-significantly. No other treatment group differed significantly from the non-encouraged control group, while encouraging effort produced significantly increased vergence (P=.004) and accommodation (P=.005) gains in the other control group. Conclusions True treatment effects were small, only significantly better after vergence exercises to a non-accommodative target, and were rarely related to response they were designed to improve. Exercising accommodation without convergence made no difference to accommodation to cues containing detail. Additional effort improved objective responses the most, so should be controlled carefully in research, and considered when auditing treatment.

A comparison of tests of non-linear cointegration with an application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure

We test whether there are nonlinearities in the response of short- and long-term interest rates to the spread in interest rates, and assess the out-of-sample predictability of interest rates using linear and nonlinear models. We find strong evidence of nonlinearities in the response of interest rates to the spread. Nonlinearities are shown to result in more accurate short-horizon forecasts, especially of the spread.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Forecasting US output growth with non-linear models in the presence of data uncertainty

We consider the impact of data revisions on the forecast performance of a SETAR regime-switching model of U.S. output growth. The impact of data uncertainty in real-time forecasting will affect a model's forecast performance via the effect on the model parameter estimates as well as via the forecast being conditioned on data measured with error. We find that benchmark revisions do affect the performance of the non-linear model of the growth rate, and that the performance relative to a linear comparator deteriorates in real-time compared to a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise.

A continuum anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics

We develop the essential ingredients of a new, continuum and anisotropic model of sea-ice dynamics designed for eventual use in climate simulation. These ingredients are a constitutive law for sea-ice stress, relating stress to the material properties of sea ice and to internal variables describing the sea-ice state, and equations describing the evolution of these variables. The sea-ice cover is treated as a densely flawed two-dimensional continuum consisting of a uniform field of thick ice that is uniformly permeated with narrow linear regions of thinner ice called leads. Lead orientation, thickness and width distributions are described by second-rank tensor internal variables: the structure, thickness and width tensors, whose dynamics are governed by corresponding evolution equations accounting for processes such as new lead generation and rotation as the ice cover deforms. These evolution equations contain contractions of higher-order tensor expressions that require closures. We develop a sea-ice stress constitutive law that relates sea-ice stress to the structure tensor, thickness tensor and strain rate. For the special case of empty leads (containing no ice), linear closures are adopted and we present calculations for simple shear, convergence and divergence.

Linear and non-linear transmission of equity return volatility: evidence from the US, Japan and Australia

This paper models the transmission of shocks between the US, Japanese and Australian equity markets. Tests for the existence of linear and non-linear transmission of volatility across the markets are performed using parametric and non-parametric techniques. In particular the size and sign of return innovations are important factors in determining the degree of spillovers in volatility. It is found that a multivariate asymmetric GARCH formulation can explain almost all of the non-linear causality between markets. These results have important implications for the construction of models and forecasts of international equity returns.

Linear and non-linear (non-)forecastability of high-frequency exchange rates

This paper forecasts Daily Sterling exchange rate returns using various naive, linear and non-linear univariate time-series models. The accuracy of the forecasts is evaluated using mean squared error and sign prediction criteria. These show only a very modest improvement over forecasts generated by a random walk model. The Pesaran–Timmerman test and a comparison with forecasts generated artificially shows that even the best models have no evidence of market timing ability.

Approximation by harmonic polynomials in star-shaped domains and exponential convergence of Trefftz hp-dGFEM

We study the approximation of harmonic functions by means of harmonic polynomials in two-dimensional, bounded, star-shaped domains. Assuming that the functions possess analytic extensions to a delta-neighbourhood of the domain, we prove exponential convergence of the approximation error with respect to the degree of the approximating harmonic polynomial. All the constants appearing in the bounds are explicit and depend only on the shape-regularity of the domain and on delta. We apply the obtained estimates to show exponential convergence with rate O(exp(−b square root N)), N being the number of degrees of freedom and b>0, of a hp-dGFEM discretisation of the Laplace equation based on piecewise harmonic polynomials. This result is an improvement over the classical rate O(exp(−b cubic root N )), and is due to the use of harmonic polynomial spaces, as opposed to complete polynomial spaces.

Screening for convergence insufficiency using the CISS is not indicated in young adults

Aim This paper presents Convergence Insufficiency Symptom Survey (CISS) and orthoptic findings in a sample of typical young adults who considered themselves to have normal eyesight apart from weak spectacles. Methods The CISS questionnaire was administered,followed by a full orthoptic evaluation, to 167 university undergraduate and postgraduate students during the recruitment phase of another study. The primary criterion for recruitment to this study was that participants‘feltthey had normal eyesight'. A CISS score of ≥21 was used to define‘significant’symptoms, and convergence insufficiency (CI) was defined as convergence≥8cm from the nose with a fusion range <15Δ base-out with small or no exophoria. Results The group mean CISS score was 15.4. In all, 17(10%) of the participants were diagnosed with CI, but 11(65%) of these did not have significant symptoms. 41(25%) participants returned a‘high’CISS score of ≥21 but only 6 (15%) of these had genuine CI. Sensitivity of the CISS to detect CI in this asymptomatic sample was 38%; specificity 77%; positive predictive value 15%; and negative predictive value 92%. The area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.596 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.73). Conclusions‘Visual symptoms’are common in young adults, but often not related to any clinical defect, while true CI may be asymptomatic. This study suggests that screening for CI is not indicated

Umami: a delicious flavor formed by convergence of taste and olfactory pathways in the human brain

Umami taste is produced by glutamate acting on a fifth taste system. However, glutamate presented alone as a taste stimulus is not highly pleasant, and does not act synergistically with other tastes (sweet, salt, bitter and sour). We show here that when glutamate is given in combination with a consonant, savory, odour (vegetable), the resulting flavor can be much more pleasant. Moreover, we showed using functional brain imaging with fMRI that the glutamate taste and savory odour combination produced much greater activation of the medial orbitofrontal cortex and pregenual cingulate cortex than the sum of the activations by the taste and olfactory components presented separately. Supralinear effects were much less (and significantly less) evident for sodium chloride and vegetable odour. Further, activations in these brain regions were correlated with the pleasantness and fullness of the flavor, and with the consonance of the taste and olfactory components. Supralinear effects of glutamate taste and savory odour were not found in the insular primary taste cortex. We thus propose that glutamate acts by the nonlinear effects it can produce when combined with a consonant odour in multimodal cortical taste-olfactory convergence regions. We propose the concept that umami can be thought of as a rich and delicious flavor that is produced by a combination of glutamate taste and a consonant savory odour. Glutamate is thus a flavor enhancer because of the way that it can combine supralinearly with consonant odours in cortical areas where the taste and olfactory pathways converge far beyond the receptors.