Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Probing the aging effect in metallic polypyrrole by terahertz time-domain spectroscopy

Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy has been carried out on a metallic film of polypyrrole (PPy doped by PF6). The sample was exposed to air to investigate how the conductivity of the film varies as a function of time. The absorption and dispersion of the film decrease during initial days, and then tend to saturate. The conductivity of unaged sample follows the Drude model, and upon aging the data fit to the localization-modified Drude model. The fitting parameters show that the number of charge carriers decreases during the aging process. The initial rapid decrease in conductivity suggests that some of the delocalized carriers are localized due to aging. (C) 2007 American Institute of Physics.

Improving GPS time series for geodynamic studies

Accurate and stable time series of geodetic parameters can be used to help in understanding the dynamic Earth and its response to global change. The Global Positioning System, GPS, has proven to be invaluable in modern geodynamic studies. In Fennoscandia the first GPS networks were set up in 1993. These networks form the basis of the national reference frames in the area, but they also provide long and important time series for crustal deformation studies. These time series can be used, for example, to better constrain the ice history of the last ice age and the Earth s structure, via existing glacial isostatic adjustment models. To improve the accuracy and stability of the GPS time series, the possible nuisance parameters and error sources need to be minimized. We have analysed GPS time series to study two phenomena. First, we study the refraction in the neutral atmosphere of the GPS signal, and, second, we study the surface loading of the crust by environmental factors, namely the non-tidal Baltic Sea, atmospheric load and varying continental water reservoirs. We studied the atmospheric effects on the GPS time series by comparing the standard method to slant delays derived from a regional numerical weather model. We have presented a method for correcting the atmospheric delays at the observational level. The results show that both standard atmosphere modelling and the atmospheric delays derived from a numerical weather model by ray-tracing provide a stable solution. The advantage of the latter is that the number of unknowns used in the computation decreases and thus, the computation may become faster and more robust. The computation can also be done with any processing software that allows the atmospheric correction to be turned off. The crustal deformation due to loading was computed by convolving Green s functions with surface load data, that is to say, global hydrology models, global numerical weather models and a local model for the Baltic Sea. The result was that the loading factors can be seen in the GPS coordinate time series. Reducing the computed deformation from the vertical time series of GPS coordinates reduces the scatter of the time series; however, the long term trends are not influenced. We show that global hydrology models and the local sea surface can explain up to 30% of the GPS time series variation. On the other hand atmospheric loading admittance in the GPS time series is low, and different hydrological surface load models could not be validated in the present study. In order to be used for GPS corrections in the future, both atmospheric loading and hydrological models need further analysis and improvements.

Morbid obesity in total hip arthroplasty: Redefining outcomes for operative time, length of stay, and readmission

Background The incidence of obesity amongst patients presenting for elective Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA) has increased in the last decade and the relationship between obesity and the need for joint replacement has been demonstrated. This study evaluates the effects of morbid obesity on outcomes following primary THA by comparing short-term outcomes in THA between a morbidly obese (BMI ≥40) and a normal weight (BMI 18.5 - <25) cohort at our institution between January 2003 and December 2010. Methods Thirty-nine patients included in the morbidly obese group were compared with 186 in the normal weight group. Operative time, length of stay, complications, readmission and length of readmission were compared. Results Operative time was increased in the morbidly obese group at 122 minutes compared with 100 minutes (p=0.002). Post-operatively there was an increased 30-day readmission rate related to surgery of 12.8% associated with BMI ≥40 compared with 2.7% (p= 0.005) as well as a 5.1 fold increase in surgery related readmitted bed days - 0.32 bed days per patient for normal weight compared with 1.64 per patient for the morbidly obese (p=0.026). Conclusion Morbidly obese patients present a technical challenge and likely this and the resultant complications are underestimated. More work needs to be performed in order to enable suitable allocation of resources.

Quantum Space-Time and Noncommutative Gauge Field Theories

Arguments arising from quantum mechanics and gravitation theory as well as from string theory, indicate that the description of space-time as a continuous manifold is not adequate at very short distances. An important candidate for the description of space-time at such scales is provided by noncommutative space-time where the coordinates are promoted to noncommuting operators. Thus, the study of quantum field theory in noncommutative space-time provides an interesting interface where ordinary field theoretic tools can be used to study the properties of quantum spacetime. The three original publications in this thesis encompass various aspects in the still developing area of noncommutative quantum field theory, ranging from fundamental concepts to model building. One of the key features of noncommutative space-time is the apparent loss of Lorentz invariance that has been addressed in different ways in the literature. One recently developed approach is to eliminate the Lorentz violating effects by integrating over the parameter of noncommutativity. Fundamental properties of such theories are investigated in this thesis. Another issue addressed is model building, which is difficult in the noncommutative setting due to severe restrictions on the possible gauge symmetries imposed by the noncommutativity of the space-time. Possible ways to relieve these restrictions are investigated and applied and a noncommutative version of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model is presented. While putting the results obtained in the three original publications into their proper context, the introductory part of this thesis aims to provide an overview of the present situation in the field.

Time and Energy Complexity of Distributed Computation of a Class of Functions in Wireless Sensor Networks

We consider a scenario in which a wireless sensor network is formed by randomly deploying n sensors to measure some spatial function over a field, with the objective of computing a function of the measurements and communicating it to an operator station. We restrict ourselves to the class of type-threshold functions (as defined in the work of Giridhar and Kumar, 2005), of which max, min, and indicator functions are important examples: our discussions are couched in terms of the max function. We view the problem as one of message-passing distributed computation over a geometric random graph. The network is assumed to be synchronous, and the sensors synchronously measure values and then collaborate to compute and deliver the function computed with these values to the operator station. Computation algorithms differ in (1) the communication topology assumed and (2) the messages that the nodes need to exchange in order to carry out the computation. The focus of our paper is to establish (in probability) scaling laws for the time and energy complexity of the distributed function computation over random wireless networks, under the assumption of centralized contention-free scheduling of packet transmissions. First, without any constraint on the computation algorithm, we establish scaling laws for the computation time and energy expenditure for one-time maximum computation. We show that for an optimal algorithm, the computation time and energy expenditure scale, respectively, as Theta(radicn/log n) and Theta(n) asymptotically as the number of sensors n rarr infin. Second, we analyze the performance of three specific computation algorithms that may be used in specific practical situations, namely, the tree algorithm, multihop transmission, and the Ripple algorithm (a type of gossip algorithm), and obtain scaling laws for the computation time and energy expenditure as n rarr infin. In particular, we show that the computation time for these algorithms scales as Theta(radicn/lo- g n), Theta(n), and Theta(radicn log n), respectively, whereas the energy expended scales as , Theta(n), Theta(radicn/log n), and Theta(radicn log n), respectively. Finally, simulation results are provided to show that our analysis indeed captures the correct scaling. The simulations also yield estimates of the constant multipliers in the scaling laws. Our analyses throughout assume a centralized optimal scheduler, and hence, our results can be viewed as providing bounds for the performance with practical distributed schedulers.

Impact of a new mandatory reporting law on reporting and identification of child sexual abuse: A seven year time trend analysis

Child sexual abuse is widespread and difficult to detect. To enhance case identification, many societies have enacted mandatory reporting laws requiring designated professionals, most often police, teachers, doctors and nurses, to report suspected cases to government child welfare agencies. Little research has explored the effects of introducing a reporting law on the number of reports made, and the outcomes of those reports. This study explored the impact of a new legislative mandatory reporting duty for child sexual abuse in the State of Western Australia over seven years. We analysed data about numbers and outcomes of reports by mandated reporters, for periods before the law (2006-08) and after the law (2009-12). Results indicate that the number of reports by mandated reporters of suspected child sexual abuse increased by a factor of 3.7, from an annual mean of 662 in the three year pre-law period to 2448 in the four year post-law period. The increase in the first two post-law years was contextually and statistically significant. Report numbers stabilised in 2010-12, at one report per 210 children. The number of investigated reports increased threefold, from an annual mean of 451 in the pre-law period to 1363 in the post-law period. Significant decline in the proportion of mandated reports that were investigated in the first two post-law years suggested the new level of reporting and investigative need exceeded what was anticipated. However, a subsequent significant increase restored the pre-law proportion, suggesting systemic adaptive capacity. The number of substantiated investigations doubled, from an annual mean of 160 in the pre-law period to 327 in the post-law period, indicating twice as many sexually abused children were being identified.

Rendering stiffer walls: a hybrid haptic system using continuous and discrete time feedback

Instability in conventional haptic rendering destroys the perception of rigid objects in virtual environments. Inherent limitations in the conventional haptic loop restrict the maximum stiffness that can be rendered. In this paper we present a method to render virtual walls that are much stiffer than those achieved by conventional techniques. By removing the conventional digital haptic loop and replacing it with a part-continuous and part-discrete time hybrid haptic loop, we were able to render stiffer walls. The control loop is implemented as a combinational logic circuit on an field-programmable gate array. We compared the performance of the conventional haptic loop and our hybrid haptic loop on the same haptic device, and present mathematical analysis to show the limit of stability of our device. Our hybrid method removes the computer-intensive haptic loop from the CPU-this can free a significant amount of resources that can be used for other purposes such as graphical rendering and physics modeling. It is our hope that, in the future, similar designs will lead to a haptics processing unit (HPU).

Synthesis of 19F nucleic acid–polymer conjugates as real-time MRI probes of biorecognition

Polymer-DNA conjugates in which one nucleic acid strand contains fluorine-substituted nucleobases have been prepared and characterised. The efficacy of these novel F-19 nucleic acid-polymer conjugates as sensitive and selective in vitro reporters of DNA binding events is demonstrated through a number of rapid-acquisition MR sequences. The conjugates respond readily and in a sequence specific manner to external target oligonucleotide sequences by changes in hybridisation. In turn, these structural changes in polymer-nucleotide conjugates translate into responses which are detectable in fluorine relaxation and diffusion switches, and which can be monitored by in vitro Spin Echo and DOSY NMR spectroscopy. Although complementary to conventional FRET methods, the excellent diagnostic properties of fluorine nuclei make this approach a versatile and sensitive probe of molecular structure and conformation in polymeric assemblies.

Response time measurement in flow induced signal generation on semiconductors

Measurable electrical signal is generated when a gas flows over a variety of solids, including doped semiconductors, even at the modest speed of a few meters per second. The underlying mechanism is an interesting interplay of Bernoulli's principle and the Seebeck effect. The electrical signal depends on the square of Mach number (M) and is proportional to the Seebeck coefficient (S) of the solids. Here we present experimental estimate of the response time of the signal rise and fall process, i.e. how fast the semiconductor materials respond to a steady flow as soon as it is set on or off. A theoretical model is also presented to understand the process and the dependence of the response time on the nature and physical dimensions of the semiconductor material used and they are compared with the experimental observations. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A rate-one full-diversity low-complexity space-time-frequency block code (STFBC) for 4-Tx MIMO-OFDM

It is known that by employing space-time-frequency codes (STFCs) to frequency selective MIMO-OFDM systems, all the three diversity viz spatial, temporal and multipath can be exploited. There exists space-time-frequency block codes (STFBCs) designed using orthogonal designs with constellation precoder to get full diversity (Z.Liu, Y.Xin and G.Giannakis IEEE Trans. Signal Processing, Oct. 2002). Since orthogonal designs of rate one exists only for two transmit antennas, for more than two transmit antennas STFBCs of rate-one and full-diversity cannot be constructed using orthogonal designs. This paper presents a STFBC scheme of rate one for four transmit antennas designed using quasi-orthogonal designs along with co-ordinate interleaved orthogonal designs (Zafar Ali Khan and B. Sundar Rajan Proc: ISIT 2002). Conditions on the signal sets that give full-diversity are identified. Simulation results are presented to show the superiority of our codes over the existing ones.

A unified construction of space-time codes with optimal rate-diversity tradeoff

The problem of constructing space-time (ST) block codes over a fixed, desired signal constellation is considered. In this situation, there is a tradeoff between the transmission rate as measured in constellation symbols per channel use and the transmit diversity gain achieved by the code. The transmit diversity is a measure of the rate of polynomial decay of pairwise error probability of the code with increase in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). In the setting of a quasi-static channel model, let n(t) denote the number of transmit antennas and T the block interval. For any n(t) <= T, a unified construction of (n(t) x T) ST codes is provided here, for a class of signal constellations that includes the familiar pulse-amplitude (PAM), quadrature-amplitude (QAM), and 2(K)-ary phase-shift-keying (PSK) modulations as special cases. The construction is optimal as measured by the rate-diversity tradeoff and can achieve any given integer point on the rate-diversity tradeoff curve. An estimate of the coding gain realized is given. Other results presented here include i) an extension of the optimal unified construction to the multiple fading block case, ii) a version of the optimal unified construction in which the underlying binary block codes are replaced by trellis codes, iii) the providing of a linear dispersion form for the underlying binary block codes, iv) a Gray-mapped version of the unified construction, and v) a generalization of construction of the S-ary case corresponding to constellations of size S-K. Items ii) and iii) are aimed at simplifying the decoding of this class of ST codes.

BER analysis of space-time block codes from generalized complex orthogonal designs for M-PSK

In this paper, we present an analysis for the bit error rate (BER) performance of space-time block codes (STBC) from generalized complex orthogonal designs for M-PSK modulation. In STBCs from complex orthogonal designs (COD), the norms of the column vectors are the same (e.g., Alamouti code). However, in generalized COD (GCOD), the norms of the column vectors may not necessarily be the same (e.g., the rate-3/5 and rate-7/11 codes by Su and Xia in [1]). STBCs from GCOD are of interest because of the high rates that they can achieve (in [2], it has been shown that the maximum achievable rate for STBCs from GCOD is bounded by 4/5). While the BER performance of STBCs: from COD (e.g., Alamouti code) can be simply obtained from existing analytical expressions for receive diversity with the same diversity order by appropriately scaling the SNR, this can not be done for STBCs from GCOD (because of the unequal norms of the column vectors). Our contribution in this paper is that we derive analytical expressions for the BER performance of any STBC from GCOD. Our BER analysis for the GCOD captures the performance of STBCs from COD as special cases. We validate our results with two STBCs from GCOD reported by Su and Xia in [1], for 5 and 6 transmit antennas (G(5) and G(6) in [1]) with rates 7/11 and 3/5, respectively.