Fiscal imbalances, inflation and sovereign default dynamics

Resumen: La cuestión central que este artículo busca responder es como la política monetaria puede afectar el comportamiento de equilibrio de primas por riesgo soberano y cesación de pagos. El artículo se basa en el modelo de “una-tasa-interés”. La deuda pública se hace riesgosa a causa de una política fiscal activa, como en Uribe (2006), reflejando la habilidad limitada de la autoridad fiscal para controlar el superávit primario. El problema de insolvencia es debido a una oleada de mala suerte (shocks negativos que afectan el superávit primario). Pero en contraste a los resultados de Uribe, a medida que aumenta el costo de la deuda soberana (que resulta de un excedente primario débil), la cesación de pagos se anticipa y es reflejada por una creciente prima de riesgo en el país y una probabilidad de cesación de pagos. La cesación de pagos se define como un incumplimiento de un acuerdo contractual y por ende la decisión es tomada por la autoridad fiscal. Mientras tanto, objetivos conflictivos entre la autoridad monetaria y fiscal juegan un rol importante en llevar a la autoridad fiscal a la cesación de pagos sobre sus pasivos. La característica de la política del gobierno necesaria para restaurar el equilibrio después de la cesación de pagos también es analizada.

Vortex dynamics in the studies of looping in tropical cyclone tracks

This paper proposes criteria for predicting the tendency of looping in tropical cyclone tracks using the approach of vortex dynamics. We model the asymmetric structure of a cyclone by a system of vortex patches. The evolution of such system of vortices is simulated by the method of contour dynamics. A new set of exact analytic formulas for contour dynamics calculations is derived, which is shown to be more computationally effective. Based on point-vortex models, we derive analytic formulas for the criteria of looping in a cyclone track. From numerical experiments, the simulated trajectories obtained from the point-vortex system and vortex patch system agree quite well. Hence, the looping criteria obtained from the point-vortex system can be applied by forecasters to stay alert for tendency of looping in a cyclone track. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed criteria, the trajectory of Typhoon Yancy (9012), whose field data are available from ''TCM-90'', is simulated. The case study shows that the asymmetric structure similar to the pattern of a beta gyre is responsible for its recurvature when Yancy landed Fujian Province, China on 20 August 1990.

Dislocations in the crystallites of nanocrystalline alpha-Fe - A molecular dynamics study

Molecular dynamics simulations are carried out in order to study the atomic structure of crystalline component, of nanocrystalline alpha-Fe when it is consolidated from small grains. A two-dimensional computational block is used to simulate the consolidation process. All the preset dislocations in the original grains glide out of them in the consolidation process, but new dislocations can generate when the grain size is large enough. It shows that dislocations exist in the consolidated material rather than in the original grains. Whether dislocations exist in the crystalline component of the resultant model nana-material depends upon grain size. The critical value of grain size for dislocation generation appears to be about 9 nm. This result agrees with experiments qualitatively.

A BIEM optimization method for fracture dynamics inverse problem

In the present paper, based on the theory of dynamic boundary integral equation, an optimization method for crack identification is set up in the Laplace frequency space, where the direct problem is solved by the author's new type boundary integral equations and a method for choosing the high sensitive frequency region is proposed. The results show that the method proposed is successful in using the information of boundary elastic wave and overcoming the ill-posed difficulties on solution, and helpful to improve the identification precision.