Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

High-temperature superconductivity in the 100 K region in perovskite-related oxides of the Ln-Ba-Cu-O (Ln=Y or La) system

Oxides of the Y-Ba-Cu-O system are found to show onset of superconductivity in the 100–120 K region.

Portrait of either Henriette Gottschalk nee Rothschild or of Julie Meyerhof nee Oppenheimer.

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Unsteady flow of a dilute suspension in a semi-infinite contracting or expanding pipe

In the present paper an exact similar solution of the Navier-Stokes equation for unsteady flow of a dilute suspension in a semi-infinite contracting or expanding circular pipe is presented. The effects of the Schmidt number (Sc), Reynolds number (|ε|), the volume fraction (α) and the relaxation time (τ) of the particulate phase on the flow characteristics are examined. The presence of the solid particles has been observed to influence the flow behaviour significantly. These solutions are valid down to the state of a completely collapsed pipe, since the nonlinearity is retained fully. The results may help understanding the flow near the heart and certain forced contractions or expansions of valved veins.

Mass transfer effects on the generalised vortex flow over a stationary surface with or without magnetic field

The effect of injection and suction on the generalised vortex flow of a steady laminar incompressible fluid over a stationary infinite disc with or without magnetic field under boundary-layer approximations has been studied. The coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations governing the self-similar flow have been numerically solved using the finite-difference scheme. The results indicate that the injection produces a deeper inflow layer and de-stabilises the motion while suction or magnetic field suppresses the inflow layer and produces stability. The effect of decreasingn, the parameter characterising the nature of vortex flow, is similar to that of increasing the injection rate.

Critically endangered Pristis microdon (Elasmobranchii), as a host for the Indian parasitic copepod, Caligus furcisetifer Redkar, Rangnekar et Murti, 1949 (Siphonostomatoida): New records from northern Australia.

This paper presents the first records of the parasitic copepod Caligus furcisetifer Redkar, Rangnekar et Murti, 1949 beyond Indian waters, specifically, on the body surface and head of the critically endangered largetooth sawfish (commonly referred to as the freshwater sawfish in Australia), Pristis microdon Latham, 1794 (Elasmobranchii, Pristidae), in brackish tidal waters of the Fitzroy River in the Kimberley region of Western Australia and the Leichhardt River in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Queensland. This represents a geographic range extension of similar to 8000 km for this parasite. Further, it is only the second member of the genus Caligus to be found on an elasmobranch host in Western Australia and it is the first time this species has been reported from the Southern Hemisphere. Male biased dispersal of P microdon may be the vector in which the parasite has dispersed from India across to northern Australia, or vice versa. A decline in populations of the critically endangered P microdon (and possibly other pristid species) in these regions may lead to a concomitant decline in their parasite fauna.

Population genetic structure and genetic diversity of three critically endangered Pristis sawfishes in Australian waters.

Northern Australia is considered to be one of the last strongholds for three critically endangered sawfishes, Pristis zijsron, Pristis clavata, and Pristis microdon, making these populations of global significance. Population structure and levels of genetic diversity were assessed for each species across northern Australia using a portion of the mitochondrial control region. Statistically significant genetic structure was detected in all three species, although it was higher in P. microdon (F-ST = 0.811; N = 149) than in either P. clavata (F-ST = 0.419; N = 73) or P. zijsron (F-ST = 0.202; N = 49), possibly due to a much higher and/or localized level of female philopatry in P. microdon. The overall levels of haplotype diversity in P. zijsron (h = 0.555), P. clavata (h = 0.489), and P. microdon (h = 0.650) were moderate, although it appears to be reduced in the assemblages of P. zijsron and P. clavata in the Gulf of Carpentaria (h = 0.342 and h = 0.083, respectively). Since female migration (replenishment) between regions is unlikely, conservation plans should strive to maintain current levels of diversity and abundances in the regional assemblages of each species.

Olga Schnitzler with toddler girl (Paula Beer-Hofmann or Henni Schnitzler?) Portraits Groups

Handwritten dedication: Der sehr geliebten Paula! Herzlichst Olga

To reactivate or not to reactivate : Control of KSHV lytic replication is essential for apoptosis in response to p53 restoration

Kaposi's sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV) is an oncogenic human virus and the causative agent of three human malignancies: Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), Multicentric Castleman's Disease (MCD), and primary effusion lymphoma (PEL). In tumors, KSHV establishes latent infection during which it produces no infectious particles. Latently infected cells can enter the lytic replication cycle, and upon provision of appropriate cellular signals, produce progeny virus. PEL, commonly described in patients with AIDS, represents a diffuse large-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, with median survival time less than six months after diagnosis. As tumor suppressor gene TP53 mutations occur rarely in PEL, the aim of this thesis was to investigate whether non-genotoxic activation of the p53 pathway can eradicate malignant PEL cells. This thesis demonstrates that Nutlin-3, a small-molecule inhibitor of the p53-MDM2 interaction, efficiently restored p53 function in PEL cells, leading to cell cycle arrest and massive apoptosis. Furthermore, we found that KSHV infection activated DNA damage signaling, rendering the cells more sensitive to p53-dependent cell death. We also showed in vivo the therapeutic potential of p53 restoration that led to regression of subcutaneous and intraperitoneal PEL tumor xenografts without adversely affecting normal cells. Importantly, we demonstrated that in a small subset of intraperitoneal PEL tumors, spontaneous induction of viral reactivation dramatically impaired Nutlin-3-induced p53-mediated apoptosis. Accordingly, we found that elevated KSHV lytic transcripts correlated with PEL tumor burden in animals and that inhibition of viral reactivation in vitro restored cytotoxic activity of a small-molecule inhibitor of the p53-MDM2 interaction. Latency provides a unique opportunity for KSHV to escape host immune surveillance and to establish persistent infections. However, to maintain viral reservoirs and spread to other hosts, KSHV must be reactivated from latency and enter into the lytic growth phase. We showed that phosphorylation of nucleolar phosphoprotein nucleophosmin (NPM) by viral cyclin-CDK6 is critical for establishment and maintenance of the KSHV latency. In short, this study provides evidence that the switch between latent phase and lytic replication is a critical step that determines the outcome of viral infection and the pathogenesis of KSHV-induced malignancies. Our data may thus contribute to development of novel targeted therapies for intervention and treatment of KSHV-associated cancers.

Self-reported bruxism : Associated factors among media personnel with or without irregular shift work

Tutkimuksen kohderyhmänä oli mediatyöntekijöitä, joiden toimenkuva on viime vuosina muuttunut yhä kuormittavammaksi epäsäännöllisen vuorotyön sekä jatkuvien teknisten, organisatoristen ja taloudellisten tekijöiden ristipaineessa. Väitöskirjatutkimus on osa laajempaa tutkimushanketta, joka suunniteltiin selvittämään epäsäännöllisen vuorotyön mahdollisia haittoja. Tutkimusta tukivat taloudellisesti Työsuojelurahasto ja Suomen Hammaslääkäriseura Apollonia sekä resurssipanostuksin Hammaslääketieteen laitos (HY), Työterveyslaitos ja Yleisradio Oy. Bruksismi on tahdosta riippumatonta hampaiden narskuttelua tai yhteenpuristamista. Hampaiden narskuttelu on rytmistä jaksoittain toistuvaa puremalihasten toimintaa, joka esiintyy nukkuessa -tavallisimmin kevyen unen ja havahtumisjaksojen yhteydessä. Valveilla ollessa bruksismi on terveillä ihmisillä lähinnä hampaiden yhteenpuristamista. Yleisen käsityksen mukaan toistuvaa unibruksismia esiintyy noin 10 %:lla ja valveilla tapahtuvaa hampaiden yhteenpuristamista noin 20 %:lla. Aiemmin bruksismi kuului kansainvälisen unihäiriöluokituksen (ICSD 1997) mukaan unen erityishäiriöihin, mutta tuorein luokitus (ICSD 2005) listaa sen unen liikehäiriöihin. Väitöstutkimuksen yleisenä tavoitteena oli kartoittaa koetun bruksismin ja uni- valvehäiriöiden yhteyttä. Tutkimus oli poikittainen vertailututkimus epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä ja säännöllisiä päivävuoroja tekevien välillä. Mielenkiinto kohdistui myös bruksismin ja kasvojen alueen kivun mahdolliseen yhteyteen. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa selvitettiin joidenkin tunnetusti unen laatua huonontavien psykososiaalisten, neurologisten ja fysiologisten tekijöiden yhteyttä koettuun bruksismiin. Tutkimuksen kohderyhmän muodosti 750 Yleisradion epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä tekevää työntekijää. Vertailuryhmänä käytettiin samansuuruista satunnaistetusti valittua kaltaistettua Yleisradion työntekijäjoukkoa, joka tekee samankaltaista työtä, mutta säännöllisenä päivätyönä. Kohderyhmälle lähetettiin kyselylomakkeet, jotka kartoittivat koetun bruksismin lisäksi mm. tutkittavien taustatiedot, yleisen terveydentilan, yleisiä koettuja stressioireita ja tuntemuksia, kipuoireita, sekä unen laatua. Lisäksi esitettiin jaksamista ja työympäristöä koskevia kysymyksiä. Kyselyyn vastasi kaikkiaan 874 henkilöä. Kokonaisvastausprosentti oli 58,3 % (53,7 % miehiä). Epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä tekevien vastausprosentti oli 82,3 % ja säännöllistä päivätyötä tekevien ryhmässä 34,3 %. Työtehtävät sisälsivät ohjelmien toimitus- ja tuottamistyötä, teknistä tuotanto- ja tukityötä, sekä esimies- ja hallintotyötä. Miesten keski-ikä vuorotyöryhmässä oli 45,0 (± 10,6) vuotta ja naisten keski-ikä 42,6 (± 10,7) vuotta, vastaavat luvut päivätyötä tekeville olivat 47,4 (± 9,7) ja 45,5 (± 10,1) vuotta. Vuorotyötä tekevistä oli miehiä 56,6 %, päivätyöryhmässä miehien osuus oli 46,7 %. Usein koettua bruksismia havaittiin koko tutkimusjoukossa 10,6 %:lla. Bruksismin esiintyvyydessä ei ollut merkitsevää eroa epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä ja päivätyötä tekevien välillä. Kun bruksismia ja stressiä arvioitiin suhteessa tyytyväisyyteen nykyiseen työaikamuotoon, molemmat olivat merkitsevästi vallitsevimpia niillä, jotka halusivat vaihtaa nykyistä työaikamuotoaan. Epäsäännöllistä vuorotyötä tekevät lisäksi ilmoittivat kokevansa enemmän stressiä kuin päivätyötä tekevät sekä olivat tyytymättömämpiä työaikamuotoonsa. Tutkittavista henkilöistä katkonaista unta esiintyi 43,6 %:lla sekä 36,2 % koki unensa virkistämättömäksi. Kasvokipua esiintyi 19,6 %:lla. Usein toistuva bruksaus sekä tyytymättömyys työaikamuotoon olivat erittäin merkitsevästi yhteydessä unihäiriöiden sekä riittämättömän unen oireiden kanssa. Bruksismi ja katkonainen uni osoittautuivat myös kasvokivun taustatekijöiksi. Tutkimus osoitti, että koetulla bruksismilla oli merkitsevä yhteys unihäiriöihin, kasvokipuun, koettuun stressiin ja ahdistuneisuuteen, nuorempaan ikään, runsaampiin hammaslääkäri- ja lääkärikäynteihin sekä siihen että oli tyytymätön työaikamuotoonsa (itse työaikamuoto ei ollut merkitsevä tekijä). Tutkimuksen yhtenä johtopäätöksenä todettiin, että koettu bruksismi voi terveillä työikäisillä henkilöillä olla osa stressaavaa tilannetta ja siihen liittyvää käyttäytymistä. Tämän tiedostaminen terveydenhuollossa voisi olla hyödyllistä.

Eliciting and encoding expert knowledge on variable selection into classical or Bayesian species distribution models

The quality of species distribution models (SDMs) relies to a large degree on the quality of the input data, from bioclimatic indices to environmental and habitat descriptors (Austin, 2002). Recent reviews of SDM techniques, have sought to optimize predictive performance e.g. Elith et al., 2006. In general SDMs employ one of three approaches to variable selection. The simplest approach relies on the expert to select the variables, as in environmental niche models Nix, 1986 or a generalized linear model without variable selection (Miller and Franklin, 2002). A second approach explicitly incorporates variable selection into model fitting, which allows examination of particular combinations of variables. Examples include generalized linear or additive models with variable selection (Hastie et al. 2002); or classification trees with complexity or model based pruning (Breiman et al., 1984, Zeileis, 2008). A third approach uses model averaging, to summarize the overall contribution of a variable, without considering particular combinations. Examples include neural networks, boosted or bagged regression trees and Maximum Entropy as compared in Elith et al. 2006. Typically, users of SDMs will either consider a small number of variable sets, via the first approach, or else supply all of the candidate variables (often numbering more than a hundred) to the second or third approaches. Bayesian SDMs exist, with several methods for eliciting and encoding priors on model parameters (see review in Low Choy et al. 2010). However few methods have been published for informative variable selection; one example is Bayesian trees (O’Leary 2008). Here we report an elicitation protocol that helps makes explicit a priori expert judgements on the quality of candidate variables. This protocol can be flexibly applied to any of the three approaches to variable selection, described above, Bayesian or otherwise. We demonstrate how this information can be obtained then used to guide variable selection in classical or machine learning SDMs, or to define priors within Bayesian SDMs.

Interior view of the synagogue where David Dublon was cantor or rabbi; Dülmen, Germany Synagogues; Interior

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Interior view of the synagogue where David Dublon was cantor or rabbi with some of the children in the congregation; Dülmen, Germany Synagogues; Interior

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