Integrating geophysical data and upscaling techniques to support regional groundwater flow modelling: A practical example of the Lagan Valley, Northern Ireland

When studying heterogeneous aquifer systems, especially at regional scale, a degree of generalization is anticipated. This can be due to sparse sampling regimes, complex depositional environments or lack of accessibility to measure the subsurface. This can lead to an inaccurate conceptualization which can be detrimental when applied to groundwater flow models. It is important that numerical models are based on observed and accurate geological information and do not rely on the distribution of artificial aquifer properties. This can still be problematic as data will be modelled at a different scale to which it was collected. It is proposed here that integrating geophysics and upscaling techniques can assist in a more realistic and deterministic groundwater flow model. In this study, the sedimentary aquifer of the Lagan Valley in Northern Ireland is chosen due to intruding sub-vertical dolerite dykes. These dykes are of a lower permeability than the sandstone aquifer. The use of airborne magnetics allows the delineation of heterogeneities, confirmed by field analysis. Permeability measured at the field scale is then upscaled to different levels using a correlation with the geophysical data, creating equivalent parameters that can be directly imported into numerical groundwater flow models. These parameters include directional equivalent permeabilities and anisotropy. Several stages of upscaling are modelled in finite element. Initial modelling is providing promising results, especially at the intermediate scale, suggesting an accurate distribution of aquifer properties. This deterministic based methodology is being expanded to include stochastic methods of obtaining heterogeneity location based on airborne geophysical data. This is through the Direct Sample method of Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS). This method uses the magnetics as a training image to computationally determine a probabilistic occurrence of heterogeneity. There is also a need to apply the method to alternate geological contexts where the heterogeneity is of a higher permeability than the host rock.

Trends in Economic Stress and the Great Recession in Ireland: An Analysis of the CSO Survey in Income and Living Conditions (SILC)

Since 2008, Ireland has experienced the most severe economic and labour market crisis since the foundation of the State. These economic and labour market changes have had a stark impact on the standard of living across the Irish population. The rapid deterioration in the labour market, the rising level of household indebtedness and stringent austerity measures to plug the public finance deficit have had a widespread impact yet there is debate about where the heaviest burden has fallen and where the economic stress has been felt most. The paper analyses data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions for the period 2004 to 2011. The aim of the paper is to develop and test a measure of economic stress, which will capture some of the aspects of the rapid change in economic fortunes on Irish households that are not picked up by income alone. This includes tapping into features of the recession such as debt problems, unsustainable housing costs, and other difficulties associated with managing on reduced household income in a period of uncertainty. In testing such a measure we examine trends over time from boom to bust in the Irish economy and consider how economic stress is distributed across different socio-economic groups. The paper explores the distribution and level of economic stress across income class groups, social classes and the life-course and tests the thesis of ‘middle class squeeze’.

How Prepared are UK Medical Graduates for Practice? Final report from a programme of research commissioned by the General Medical Council

This programme of research aimed to understand the extent to which current UK medical graduates are prepared for practice. Commissioned by the General Medical Council, we conducted: (1) A Rapid Review of the literature between 2009 and 2013; (2) narrative interviews with a range of stakeholders; and (3) longitudinal audio-diaries with Foundation Year 1 doctors. The Rapid Review (RR) resulted in data from 81 manuscripts being extracted and mapped against a coding framework (including outcomes from Tomorrow's Doctors (2009) (TD09)). A narrative synthesis of the data was undertaken. Narrative interviews were conducted with 185 participants from 8 stakeholder groups: F1 trainees, newly registered trainee doctors, clinical educators, undergraduate and postgraduate deans and foundation programme directors, other healthcare professionals, employers, policy and government and patient and public representatives. Longitudinal audio-diaries were recorded by 26 F1 trainees over 4 months. The data were analysed thematically and mapped against TD09. Together these data shed light onto how preparedness for practice is conceptualised, measured, how prepared UK medical graduates are for practice, the effectiveness of transition interventions and the currently debated issue of bringing full registration forward to align with medical students’ graduation. Preparedness for practice was conceptualised as both a long- and short-term venture that included personal readiness as well as knowledge, skills and attitudes. It has mainly been researched using self-report measures of generalised incidents that have been shown to be problematic. In terms of transition interventions: assistantships were found to be valuable and efficacious for proactive students as team members, shadowing is effective when undertaken close to employment/setting of F1 post and induction is generally effective but of inconsistent quality. The August transition was highlighted in our interview and audio-diary data where F1s felt unprepared, particularly for the step-change in responsibility, workload, degree of multitasking and understanding where to go for help. Evidence of preparedness for specific tasks, skills and knowledge was contradictory: trainees are well prepared for some practical procedures but not others, reasonably well prepared for history taking and full physical examinations, but mostly unprepared for adopting an holistic understanding of the patient, involving patients in their care, safe and legal prescribing, diagnosing and managing complex clinical conditions and providing immediate care in medical emergencies. Evidence for preparedness for interactional and interpersonal aspects of practice was inconsistent with some studies in the RR suggesting graduates were prepared for team working and communicating with colleagues and patients, but other studies contradicting this. Interview and audio-diary data highlights concerns around F1s preparedness for communicating with angry or upset patients and relatives, breaking bad news, communicating with the wider team (including interprofessionally) and handover communication. There was some evidence in the RR to suggest that graduates were unprepared for dealing with error and safety incidents and lack an understanding of how the clinical environment works. Interview and audio-diary data backs this up, adding that F1s are also unprepared for understanding financial aspects of healthcare. In terms of being personally prepared, RR, interview and audio diary evidence is mixed around graduates’ preparedness for identifying their own limitations, but all data points to graduates’ difficulties in the domain of time management. In terms of personal and situational demographic factors, the RR found that gender did not typically predict perceptions of preparedness, but graduates from more recent cohorts, graduate entry students, graduates from problem based learning courses, UK educated graduates and graduates with an integrated degree reported feeling better prepared. The longitudinal audio-diaries provided insights into the preparedness journey for F1s. There seems to be a general development in the direction of trainees feeling more confident and competent as they gain more experience. However, these developments were not necessarily linear as challenging circumstances (e.g. new specialty, new colleagues, lack of staffing) sometimes made them feel unprepared for situations where they had previously indicated preparedness.

Outgassing Behavior of C/2012 S1 (ISON) from 2011 September to 2013 June

We report photometric observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained during the time period immediately after discovery (r = 6.28 AU) until it moved into solar conjunction in mid-2013 June using the UH2.2 m, and Gemini North 8 m telescopes on Mauna Kea, the Lowell 1.8 m in Flagstaff, the Calar Alto 1.2 m telescope in Spain, the VYSOS-5 telescopes on Mauna Loa Hawaii and data from the CARA network. Additional pre-discovery data from the Pan STARRS1 survey extends the light curve back to 2011 September 30 (r = 9.4 AU). The images showed a similar tail morphology due to small micron sized particles throughout 2013. Observations at submillimeter wavelengths using the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope on 15 nights between 2013 March 9 (r = 4.52 AU) and June 16 (r = 3.35 AU) were used to search for CO and HCN rotation lines. No gas was detected, with upper limits for CO ranging between 3.5-4.5 × 1027 molecules s-1. Combined with published water production rate estimates we have generated ice sublimation models consistent with the photometric light curve. The inbound light curve is likely controlled by sublimation of CO2. At these distances water is not a strong contributor to the outgassing. We also infer that there was a long slow outburst of activity beginning in late 2011 peaking in mid-2013 January (r ~ 5 AU) at which point the activity decreased again through 2013 June. We suggest that this outburst was driven by CO injecting large water ice grains into the coma. Observations as the comet came out of solar conjunction seem to confirm our models.

Helping the most vulnerable out of the poverty trap and reducing inequality: Policies, strategies, and services for individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder, including intellectual and neurodevelopmental disabilities: Benchmarking Autism Services Efficacy: BASE Project (Volume 3) Secondary Data analysis

1) Executive Summary
Legislation (Autism Act NI, 2011), a cross-departmental strategy (Autism Strategy 2013-2020) and a first action plan (2013-2016) have been developed in Northern Ireland in order to support individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) without a prior thorough baseline assessment of need. At the same time, there are large existing data sets about the population in NI that had never been subjected to a secondary data analysis with regards to data on ASD. This report covers the first comprehensive secondary data analysis and thereby aims to inform future policy and practice.
Following a search of all existing, large-scale, regional or national data sets that were relevant to the lives of individuals and families affected by Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in Northern Ireland, extensive secondary data analyses were carried out. The focus of these secondary data analyses was to distill any ASD related data from larger generic data sets. The findings are reported for each data set and follow a lifespan perspective, i.e., data related to children is reported first before data related to adults.
Key findings:
Autism Prevalence:
Of children born in 2000 in the UK,
• 0.9% (1:109) were reported to have ASD, when they were 5-year old in 2005;
• 1.8% (1:55) were reported to have ASD, when they were 7-years old in 2007;
• 3.5% (1:29) were reported to have ASD, when they were 11-year old in 2011.
In mainstream schools in Northern Ireland
• 1.2% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2006/07;
• 1.8% of the children were reported to have ASD in 2012/13.

Economic Deprivation:
• Families of children with autism (CWA) were 9%-18% worse off per week than families of children not on the autism spectrum (COA).
• Between 2006-2013 deprivation of CWA compared to COA nearly doubled as measured by eligibility for free school meals (from near 20 % to 37%)
• In 2006, CWA and COA experienced similar levels of deprivation (approx. 20%), by 2013, a considerable deprivation gap had developed, with CWA experienced 6% more deprivation than COA.
• Nearly 1/3 of primary school CWA lived in the most deprived areas in Northern Ireland.
• Nearly ½ of children with Asperger’s Syndrome who attended special school lived in the most deprived areas.

Unemployment:
• Mothers of CWA were 6% less likely to be employed than mothers of COA.
• Mothers of CWA earned 35%-56% less than mothers of COA.
• CWA were 9% less likely to live in two income families than COA.

Health:
• Pre-diagnosis, CWA were more likely than COA to have physical health problems, including walking on level ground, speech and language, hearing, eyesight, and asthma.
• Aged 3 years of age CWA experienced poorer emotional and social health than COA, this difference increased significantly by the time they were 7 years of age.
• Mothers of young CWA had lower levels of life satisfaction and poorer mental health than mothers of young COA.
Education:
• In mainstream education, children with ASD aged 11-16 years reported less satisfaction with their social relationships than COA.
• Younger children with ASD (aged 5 and 7 years) were less likely to enjoy school, were bullied more, and were more reluctant to attend school than COA.
• CWA attended school 2-3 weeks less than COA .
• Children with Asperger’s Syndrome in special schools missed the equivalent of 8-13 school days more than children with Asperger’s Syndrome in mainstream schools.
• Children with ASD attending mainstream schooling were less likely to gain 5+ GCSEs A*-C or subsequently attend university.



Further and Higher Education:
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Further Education (FE), from 0% to 0.7%.
• Enrolment rates for students with ASD have risen in Higher Education (HE), from 0.28% to 0.45%.
• Students with ASD chose to study different subjects than students without ASD, although other factors, e.g., gender, age etc. may have played a part in subject selection.
• Students with ASD from NI were more likely than students without ASD to choose Northern Irish HE Institutions rather than study outside NI.

Participation in adult life and employment:
• A small number of adults with ASD (n=99) have benefitted from DES employment provision over the past 12 years.
• It is unknown how many adults with ASD have received employment support elsewhere (e.g. Steps to Work).
•
Awareness and Attitudes in the General Population:
• In both the 2003 and 2012 NI Life and Times Survey (NILTS), NI public reported positive attitudes towards the inclusion of children with ASD in mainstream education (see also BASE Project Vol. 2).

Gap Analysis Recommendations:
This was the first comprehensive secondary analysis with regards to ASD of existing large-scale data sets in Northern Ireland. Data gaps were identified and further replications would benefit from the following data inclusion:
• ASD should be recorded routinely in the following datasets:
o Census;
o Northern Ireland Survey of Activity Limitation (NISALD);
o Training for Success/Steps to work; Steps to Success;
o Travel survey;
o Hate crime; and
o Labour Force Survey.
• Data should be collected on the destinations/qualifications of special school leavers.
• NILT Survey autism module should be repeated in 5 years time (2017) (see full report of 1st NILT Survey autism module 2012 in BASE Project Report Volume 2).
• General public attitudes and awareness should be assessed for children and young people, using the Young Life and Times Survey (YLT) and the Kids Life and Times Survey (KLT); (this work is underway, Dillenburger, McKerr, Schubolz, & Lloyd, 2014-2015).
 

Government Influence on the Construction Industry during the Economic Recession 2007 - 2013

Due to the high degree of international and economic integration across the globe, the 2007 global financial crisis quickly spread, causing recessions and widespread credit restrictions in advanced nations. During recessions, economic fluctuations cause dramatic changes to the market structure of industries, in particular, that of the construction sector. These structural changes can be further influenced by government strategies and policies; which if used incorrectly, can serve to fuel and exacerbate downturns. In contrasting form, during an economic recession, government strategies and policies can also be used to aid in exiting such economic turbulence. From an extensive review of literature it became apparent that very little research offered a comprehensive and systematic overview of Irish and UK construction related government policies and strategies adopted during recessions; hence the emergence of this topic. As part of an ongoing research PhD, the purpose of this paper is to collate and group Irish and UK Government strategies and policies adopted for the construction sector during the recession period 2007-2013; resulting in the establishment of a construction industry development framework and a taxonomic framework. The results reveal serious problems with the national strategic plan for the Irish construction industry, given that there is no overseeing body or target dates for implementation of the proposed actions. Furthermore, both countries failed to prioritize the proposed key actions within their strategic plans. The findings of this paper can be applied in the context of the construction sector to address shortcomings in the respective sub-sectors, while also aiding policy makers and company executives in mapping out future strategic milestones.

Construction Disputes in Small to Medium Enterprises in Ireland during Recession: Identification of Critical Factors

Purpose - To identify the critical factors causing construction disputes in Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Ireland during the recent recession period of 2007 to 2013.
Design/Methodology/Approach - A mixed method approach incorporating a literature review, case studies and questionnaire survey, with results analysed using exploratory (data reduction) factor analysis.
Findings - The results indicate seven core critical factors which result in construction disputes in SMEs in Ireland during a recession: Payment and extras; Physical work conditions; Poor financial/legal practise; Changes to the agreed scope of works; Time overrun; Defects; and Requests for increase in speed of project and long-term defects.
Research Limitations/Implications - With Ireland emerging from the current economic recession and the prevalence of SMEs to the construction sector, it is essential to document the core critical factors of construction disputes which emerge within this particular segment of the built environment.
Practical Implications - To address the adversarial nature of the construction sector and the prevalence of SMEs, it is essential to identify and document the critical factors of construction disputes within this remit. It is envisaged that the results of this research will be acknowledged, and the recommendations adopted, by construction SMEs, particularly within Ireland, as they emerge from the economic recession.
Originality/Value - This paper fulfils a gap in knowledge with the emergence of the economic recession and the identification of critical factors of construction dispute within SMEs in the Irish construction industry.

Patterns and processes of recent migration to Northern Ireland

This paper describes patterns and processes of recent migration in Northern Ireland. A conceptual approach is provided for spatial understandings of migration in new destinations, and the role of context is explored with regard to migration to a divided society. Recent migration to Northern Ireland is characterised and the geography of migrant residences evidenced in the 2011 Census is presented. Key patterns include the rural nature of migration in Northern Ireland, variation among migrant groups, and the spatial concentration of migrant communities. This exploration of spatial patterns is expanded on through a consideration of the processes of migration and diversification according to the themes of Finding Housing and Neighbourhood Interactions. In conclusion we explore the implications of the data presented, reflecting on spatial problems and spatial solutions in diversifying Northern Ireland.

Integrating petrography, mineralogy and hydrochemistry to constrain the influence and distribution of groundwater contributions to baseflow in poorly productive aquifers: Insights from Gortinlieve catchment, Co. Donegal, NW Ireland

Identifying groundwater contributions to baseflowforms an essential part of surfacewater body characterisation. The Gortinlieve catchment (5 km2) comprises a headwater stream network of the Carrigans River, itself a tributary of the River Foyle, NW Ireland. The bedrock comprises poorly productive metasediments that are characterised by fracture porosity. We present the findings of a multi-disciplinary study that integrates new hydrochemical and mineralogical investigations with existing hydraulic, geophysical and structural data to identify the scales of groundwater flow and the nature of groundwater/bedrock interaction (chemical denudation). At the catchment scale, the development of deep weathering profiles is controlled by NE-SW regional scale fracture zones associated with mountain building during the Grampian orogeny. In-situ chemical denudation of mineral phases is controlled by micro- to meso-scale fractures related to Alpine compression during Palaeocene to Oligocene times. The alteration of primary muscovite, chlorite (clinochlore) and albite along the surfaces of these small-scale fractures has resulted in the precipitation of illite, montmorillonite and illite/montmorillonite clay admixtures. The interconnected but discontinuous nature of these small-scale structures highlights the role of larger scale faults and fissures in the supply and transportation of weathering solutions to/from the sites of mineral weathering. The dissolution of primarily mineral phases releases the major ions Mg, Ca and HCO3 that are shown to subsequently formthe chemical makeup of groundwaters. Borehole groundwater and stream baseflow hydrochemical data are used to constrain the depths of groundwater flow pathways influencing the chemistry of surface waters throughout the stream profile. The results show that it is predominantly the lower part of the catchment, which receives inputs from catchment/regional scale groundwater flow, that is found to contribute to the maintenance of annual baseflow levels. This study identifies the importance
of deep groundwater in maintaining annual baseflow levels in poorly productive bedrock systems.

The Scottish Reformations and the Origin of Religious and Civil Liberty in Britain and Ireland: Presbyterian Interpretations, c.1800-60

This article examines Presbyterian interpretations in Scotland and Ireland of the Scottish Reformations of 1560 and 1638–43. It begins with a discussion of the work of two important Presbyterian historians of the early nineteenth century, the Scotsman, Thomas McCrie, and the Irishman, James Seaton Reid. In their various publications, both laid the template for the nineteenth-century Presbyterian understanding of the Scottish Reformations by emphasizing the historical links between the Scottish and Irish churches in the early-modern period and their common theology and commitment to civil and religious liberty against the ecclesiastical and political tyranny of the Stuarts. The article also examines the commemorations of the National Covenant in 1838, the Solemn League and Covenant in 1843, and the Scottish Reformation in 1860. By doing so, it uncovers important religious and ideological linkages across the North Channel, including Presbyterian evangelicalism, missionary activity, church–state relationships, religious reform and revival, and anti-Catholicism

Temporal changes in the diet of Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula overwintering at Lough Neagh

Numbers of Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula wintering at Lough Neagh declined dramatically following the winter of 2000/01. The abundance and biomass of benthic macroinvertebrates, their main food source, declined significantly between the winters of 1997/98 and 2010. Therefore, information on recent diet was required to determine if there had been any significant changes before and after the observed declines in numbers of both macroinvertebrates and birds. Here, we used oesophageal content analysis to characterise the contemporary diet of Tufted Ducks at Lough Neagh during 2010-12. Out of 75 shot ducks, only three individuals had prey items in their oesophagi while all four ducks that accidentally drowned in gill nets contained prey items. Oesophageal contents were then compared with data collected during a study conducted in the late 1990s. Contemporary diet of Tufted Ducks was dominated by Asellus aquaticus (48%), but molluscs (14%), grain (13%) and chironomid larvae (11%) were also consumed. Between 1998-99 and 2010-12, the contribution of Asellus aquaticus to the diet significantly decreased while the proportions of chironomid larvae, grain, Gammarus spp. and Mysis spp. increased. Alternative methods of dietary analysis, for example stable isotope analysis, are recommended in future studies of diving duck diet at Lough Neagh.

Infrastructure and the Architectures of Modernity in Ireland 1916-2016

At the formation of the new Republic of Ireland, the construction of new infrastructures was seen as an essential element in the building of the new nation, just as the adoption of international style modernism in architecture was perceived as a way to escape the colonial past. Accordingly, infrastructure became the physical manifestation, the concrete identity of these objectives and architecture formed an integral part of this narrative. Moving between scales and from artefact to context, Infrastructure and the Architectures of Modernity in Ireland 1916-2016 provides critical insights and narratives on what is a complex and hitherto overlooked landscape, one which is often as much international as it is Irish. In doing so, it explores the interaction between the universalising and globalising tendencies of modernisation on one hand and the textures of local architectures on the other.

The book shows how the nature of technology and infrastructure is inherently cosmopolitan. Beginning with the building of the heroic Shannon hydro-electric facility at Ardnacrusha by the German firm of Siemens-Schuckert in the first decade of independence, Ireland became a point of varying types of intersection between imported international expertise and local need. Meanwhile, at the other end of the century, by the year 2000, Ireland had become one of the most globalized countries in the world, site of the European headquarters of multinationals such as Google and Microsoft. Climatically and economically expedient to the storing and harvesting of data, Ireland has subsequently become a repository of digital information farmed in large, single-storey sheds absorbed into anonymous suburbs. In 2013, it became the preferred site for Intel to design and develop its new microprocessor chip: the Galileo. The story of the decades in between, of shifts made manifest in architecture and infrastructure from the policies of economic protectionism, to the opening up of the country to direct foreign investment and the embracing of the EU, is one of the influx of technologies and cultural references into a small country on the edges of Europe as Ireland became both a launch-pad and testing ground for a series of aspects of designed modernity.

“Bound in darkness and idolatry”? Protestant working class underachievement and Unionist hegemony

Over the past decade or more there has been a growing concern at the levels of educational underachievement within loyalist working-class areas of Northern Ireland. The inability of both educational and social policy initiatives over the past decade to improve the situation in any meaningful way has raised important questions concerning how the problem can be tackled more effectively. Placing the issue within the theoretical framework of Gramsci’s hegemony, this paper argues that there is a need to better understand the historical nature of the problem and to recognise the political and social forces that have shaped its existence. It argues that there is a need to move away from explaining Protestant underachievement simply by the availability of jobs in Ulster’s industrial past and to place its roots in the complex battle for social, political, and economic power since the 1801 Act of Union.