Vida i obra de Fra Bernat Hug de Rocabertí

Fra Bernat Hug de Rocabertí (c.1420-1485) was a prominent member of the Order of the Hospital in the Crown of Aragon in which to attain the dignity of Castilian of Amposta, the most important dignity in the Crown. This work is a historical biography of him, since he entered into the Order by the hand of his brotherin- law, fra Joan de Vilagut, until he became a confidant of King Joan II and his side took part in Catalan Civil War in the fifteenth century. In parallel, Rocabertí also devoted himself to poetry and wrote at least two pieces, the Estrampa, so far unpublished, here this work is published critically, and La glòria d’amor, a long narrative poem, which is a study of possible chronology. Moreover, also studied other people linked to Bernat Hug, like his brothers, authors of some interesting battle letters, also published for the first time, or their brothers-inlaw, among them Joan de Vilagut, also a poet, and Guillem Tinter, who had a poetic Exchange with Vilagut. The whole work is accompanied by transcription of an interesting collection of documents.

A study on the phylogeny and the ecology of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria using a new molecular marker based on the gene amoB

L'agricultura i la industrialització han causat un augment significatiu del nombre d'ambients rics en amoni. La presència de compostos nitrogenats redueix la qualitat de l'aigua, causant problemes de toxicitat, deteriorant el medi ambient i fins i tot afectant la salut humana. En conseqüència, la nitrificació s'ha convertit en un procés global que afecta al cicle del nitrogen a la biosfera. Els bacteris oxidadors d'amoni (AOB) són els responsables de l'oxidació de l'amoni a nitrit, i juguen un paper essencial en el cicle del nitrogen. Els primers oxidadors d'amoni foren aïllats a finals del segle XIX, però la lentitud del seu creixement i les dificultats per cultivar-los feren que fins als anys 80, amb els primers estudis emprant el gen 16SrDNA, no s'assolís un coneixement complert d'aquest grup bacterià. Actualment les bases de dades contenen multitud d'entrades amb seqüències corresponents a AOB. L'objectiu d'aquest treball era trobar, desenvolupar i avaluar eines útils i fiables per a l'estudi dels AOB en mostres ambientals. En aquest treball primer descrivim la utilització de la hibridació in situ amb fluorescència (FISH), mitjançant l'aplicació de sondes amb diana en el 16SrRNA dels AOB. La FISH ens va permetre detectar i recomptar aquest grup bacterià; no obstant, aquest mètode no permetia la detecció de noves seqüències, pel que es necessitava una nova eina. Amb aquesta intenció vam aplicar la seqüència de la sonda Nso1225 en una PCR. El fet d'amplificar específicament un fragment del 16SrDNA dels AOB va suposar el desenvolupament d'una nova eina molecular que permetia detectar la presència i diversitat d'aquests bacteris en ambients naturals. Malgrat tot, algunes seqüències pertanyents a bacteris no oxidadors d'amoni del subgrup β dels proteobacteris, eren també obtingudes amb aquesta tècnica. Així mateix, un dels inconvenients de l'ús del 16SrDNA com a marcador és la impossibilitat de detectar simultàniament els AOB que pertanyen als subgrups β i γ dels proteobacteris. El gen amoA, que codifica per la subunitat A de l'enzim amoni monooxigenasa (AMO), era aleshores àmpliament utilitzat com a marcador per a la detecció dels AOB. En aquest treball també descrivim la utilització d'aquest marcador en mostres procedents d'un reactor SBR. Aquest marcador ens va permetre identificar seqüències de AOB en la mostra, però la necessitat de detectar amoA mitjançant clonatge fa que l'ús d'aquest marcador requereixi massa temps per a la seva utilització com a eina en estudis d'ecologia microbiana amb moltes mostres. Per altra banda, alguns autors han assenyalat l'obtenció de seqüències de no AOB en utilitzar amoA en un protocol de PCR-DGGE. Amb la finalitat d'obtenir una eina ràpida i rigorosa per detectar i identificar els AOB, vam desenvolupar un joc nou d'oligonucleòtids amb diana en el gen amoB, que codifica per a la subunitat transmembrana de l'enzim AMO. Aquest gen ha demostrat ser un bon marcador molecular pels AOB, oferint, sense tenir en compte afiliacions filogenètiques, una elevada especificitat, sensibilitat i fiabilitat. En aquest treball també presentem una anàlisi de RT-PCR basada en la detecció del gen amoB per a la quantificació del gènere Nitrosococcus. El nou joc d'oligonucleòtids dissenyat permet una enumeració altament específica i sensible de tots els γ-Nitrosococcus coneguts. Finalment, vam realitzar un estudi poligènic, comparant i avaluant els marcadors amoA, amoB i 16SrDNA, i vàrem construir un arbre filogenètic combinat. Com a resultat concloem que amoB és un marcador adequat per a la detecció i identificació dels AOB en mostres ambientals, proporcionant alhora agrupacions consistents en fer inferències filogenètiques. Per altra banda, la seqüència sencera del gen 16S rDNA és indicada com a marcador en estudis amb finalitats taxonòmiques i filogenètiques en treballar amb cultius purs de AOB.

Els remences de l'Almoina del Pa de la Seu de Girona (segles XIV i XV)

L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és estudiar el funcionament real de la servitud catalana medieval. Per això s'estudien els homenatges i els cobraments dels mals usos rebuts i aplicats per l'Almoina del Pa de la Seu de Girona sobre els seus remences al llarg dels segles XIV i XV i, més concretament, entre 1331 i 1458. Aquestes dates han estat determinades per la documentació generada per l'esmentada institució benèfica. El primer llibre de comptes conservat és de l'any 1331. En aquests llibres de comptes els pabordes encarregats de gestionar l'Almoina hi consignaven tots els seus ingressos i totes les despeses. La data final també ha estat fixada per la documentació, perquè a partir d'aquest moment deixem de trobar constància escrita del pagament dels mals usos i de la prestació d'homenatges. La importància dels mals usos, és a dir, aquells pagaments que gravaven als serfs pel fet de ser-ho, a la Catalunya de la baixa edat mitjana és una qüestió fora de discussió. Bona part dels historiadors -Hinojosa, Vicens Vives, Freedman, etc.- atribueixen als mals usos, als homenatges i a la seva continuada exigència els dos alçaments remences contra les senyories feudals a partir de l'any 1462. Segons aquestes hipòtesis, la lluita per suprimir els mals usos i aconseguir la llibertat individual és la raó de les guerres remences de finals del segle XV. Com és sabut van quedar resoltes amb la Sentència Arbitral de Guadalupe, dictada pel rei Ferran II, que va suprimir definitivament la servitud de les terres catalanes. Malgrat la importància que els historiadors han concedit a l'existència dels mals usos i, sobretot, a la manca de llibertat dels remences, no hi ha estudis sistemàtics sobre la seva aplicació a la pràctica. Per això, l'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és estudiar tots els mals usos i tots els homenatges aplicats i rebuts per una sola senyoria -l'Almoina del Pa de la Seu de Girona-, els remences de la qual van participar activament en ambdues guerres i que és representativa, sense cap mena de dubte, del que succeïa en la diòcesi gironina. A més a més, cal assenyalar que l'estudi comprèn un període de temps que inclou circumstàncies tan cabdals com la pesta negra i la resta de catàstrofes del segle XIV i el segle XV fins a la primera guerra remença. Com és sabut, els remences catalans estaven sotmesos a sis mals usos: la redempció de persones (mitjançant la qual aconseguien la seva llibertat), les firmes d'espoli forçades (que havien de pagar quan es casaven en determinades circumstàncies), la intèstia i l'eixòrquia (que gravaven la mort intestada i sense descendents), l'àrsia (que penalitzava la crema accidental del mas o la masada) i la cugúcia (exigida a les dones considerades adúlteres). Els remences confirmaven la seva dependència d'una senyoria en els corresponents homenatges o reconeixements de domini que havien de prestar quan n'eren requerits. Aquesta tesi consta de deu capítols a més d'una introducció (o primer capítol) i d'unes conclusions. El segon capítol és dedicat a la descripció de les fonts utilitzades, entre les que destaquen els llibres de comptes dels pabordes, i on queda prou palesa la importància del fet d'haver pogut disposar d'una excepcional font seriada, a més a més de pergamins. El tercer correspon a l'estudi de la institució tractada, que tenia terres a les actuals comarques del Gironès, La Selva, l'Alt i el Baix Empordà i el Pla de l'Estany. En el quart capítol hi analitzo els problemes generats a l'hora d' intentar conèixer el nombre de persones que eren pròpies de l'Almoina i saber de quins masos provenien. A continuació segueixen els quatre capítols que constitueixen el cos central de la tesi. Al seu torn, la seva anàlisi va ocasionar l'elaboració dels tres darrers. En el capítol cinquè s'estudien tots els homenatges rebuts per l'Almoina entre els anys 1300 i 1457, tant els que figuren en els manuals de comptes com els conservats en pergamí. En total, tenim documentats 1258 dels homenatges o reconeixements de domini rebuts per la institució. El capítol següent és dedicat a l'estudi de les firmes d'espoli forçades i als 424 cobraments fets per l'Almoina per aquest concepte, entre els anys 1331 i 1452. En els capítols setè i vuitè, s'analitzen els mals usos que gravaven les sortides del domini, tant les voluntàries com les involuntàries. El resultat obtingut és que entre 1331 i 1458, la institució va concedir la llibertat a 557 persones bona part de les quals van tornar a adscriure's de nou a una altra senyoria. El nombre d'aquests sortides contrasta amb el cobrament per part de l'Almoina, entre aquestes mateixes dates, de només 105 intèsties i eixòrquies; dit d'una altra manera, fins l'any 1445 va ingressar diners en concepte de 23 intèsties, fins el 1458 per 68 eixòrquies i fins el 1406 per 14 intèsties i/o eixòrquies. Els capítols 9 i 10 tracten del significat i les limitacions que comportaven els mals usos, com a trets definitoris de la pertinença a la servitud, sobre les persones que hi estaven sotmeses. Finalment, el darrer capítol analitza el compliment de la sentència dictada pel rei Alfons el Magnànim l'any 1457 en la que suspenia la servitud al Principat de Catalunya. Queda fora de dubte que pocs anys abans de la primera guerra remença els homenatges i els mals usos havien deixat d'aplicar-se.

The Pedagogical Congresses of Portuguese Secondary Teaching : the participation of female teachers (1927-1928)

This paper was written within the context of the research project “The development of teacher’ associative organizations and unionism (1889-1990)” funded by the Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Foundation for Science and Technology). Five important congresses about secondary education were organized in Portugal between 1927 and 1931. These congresses served to claim the rights of teachers and the consolidation of the class, as well as to promote the discussion of scientific and pedagogical problems. In these congresses, the presence of female teachers was residual. However, the few teachers who participated had a significant contribution to the definition of secondary education during the following decades. Among other issues, it contributed to the discussion of female education and to analyze the importance of Biology and Physical Education in high schools. This paper presents the analysis of the minutes of the 1927s and 1928s Congresses. This analysis allowed the assessment of the important role played by a group of teachers to define, at the end of the first third of the 20th century, the future guidelines of Portuguese secondary education. It also reported that these teachers were pioneers who opened the way for the increasing number of teachers in secondary education during the 20th century.

A matter of fundamentals : sound and silence in the radio drama of Samuel Beckett

Samuel Beckett was arguably one of the most influential writers of the 20th century. Known for his stage plays, including the renowned En attendant Godot (1948), Beckett’s contribution to the field of radio drama is often overlooked. His corpus of radio dramas included some of the most innovativeradio works of the post-World War II period. For Beckett, radio drama was not exclusively verbocentric, for he always maintained that his work was “a matter of fundamental sounds (no joke intended) made as fully as possible” (Frost 362). His (radio) drama aesthetics defined a strict hierarchy of sound whereby the dramatist balances sound effects, music and the characters’ dialogue – and the use of silence. In this essay, I examine the juxtaposition of sound and silence in Samuel Beckett’s most influential radio dramas: All That Fall, Embers, Words and Music and Cascando. In the end, this essay will show that the sounds and silence employed in Beckett’s radio dramatic works were inextricably linked, which added to the overall meaning of his dramas.

Who am I? An identity crisis Identity in the new museologies and the role of the museum professional

Whilst the title of this essay suggests more than one “new museology”, it was rather a licence poétique to emphasize the two major theoretical movements that have evolved in the second half of the 20th Century[1]. As a result of the place(s)/contexts where they originated, and for clarity purposes, they have been labelled in this essay as the “Latin new museology” and the “Anglo-Saxon new museology”; however they both identify themselves by just the name of “New Museology”. Even though they both shared similar ideas on participation and inclusion, the language barriers were probably the cause for many ideas not to be fully shared by both groups. The “Latin New museology” was the outcome of a specific context that started in the 1960s (de Varine 1996); being a product of the “Second Museum Revolution”(1970s)[2], it provided new perceptions of heritage, such as “common heritage”. In 1972 ICOM organized the Santiago Round Table, which advocated for museums to engage with the communities they serve, assigning them a role of “problem solvers” within the community (Primo 1999:66). These ideas lead to the concept of the Integral Museum. The Quebec Declaration in 1984 declared that a museum’s aim should be community development and not only “the preservation of past civilisations’ material artefacts”, followed by the Oaxtepec Declaration that claimed for the relationship between territory-heritage-community to be indissoluble (Primo 1999: 69). Finally, in 1992, the Caracas Declaration argued for the museum to “take the responsibility as a social manager reflecting the community’s interests”(Primo 1999: 71). [1] There have been at least three different applications of the term ( Peter van Mensch cited in Mason: 23) [2] According to Santos Primo, this Second Museum Revolution was the result of the Santiago Round Table in Chile, 1972, and furthered by the 1st New Museology International Workshop (Quebec, 1984), Oaxtepec Meeting (Mexico, 1984) and the Caracas Meeting (Venezuela, 1992) (Santos Primo : 63-64)

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low resolution version

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ∼50 mW m−2 K−1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m−2 K−1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (∼38 mW m−2 K−1). Another 13 mW m−2 K−1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m−2 K−1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ∼1 mW m−2 K−1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m−2 K−1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.

Onset of recent rapid sea-level rise in the western Atlantic Ocean

A high-resolution record of sea-level change spanning the past 1000 years is derived from foraminiferal and chronological analyses of a 2m thick salt-marsh peat sequence at Chezzetcook, Nova Scotia, Canada. Former mean tide level positions are reconstructed with a precision of +/- 0.055 in using a transfer function derived from distributions of modern salt-marsh foraminifera. Our age model for the core section older than 300 years is based on 19 AMS C-14 ages and takes into account the individual probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon ages. The past 300 years is dated by pollen and the isotopes Pb-206, Pb-207, Pb-210, Cs-137 and Am-241. Between AD 1000 and AD 1800, relative sea level rose at a mean rate of 17cm per century. Apparent pre-industrial rises of sea level dated at AD 1500-1550 and AD 1700-1800 cannot be clearly distinguished when radiocarbon age errors are taken into account. Furthermore, they may be an artefact of fluctuations in atmospheric C-14 production. In the 19th century sea level rose at a mean rate of 1.6mm/yr. Between AD 1900 and AD 1920, sea-level rise accelerated to the modern mean rate of 3.2mm/yr. This acceleration corresponds in time with global temperature rise and may therefore be associated with recent global warming. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of climate change on daily precipitation statistics for Jordan and Israel

A regional climate model is used to investigate changes in Israel and Jordan precipitation at the end of the 21st century on daily to monthly timescales. The model predicts that this region will get significantly drier at the peak of the rainy season, reflecting a reduction in both the frequency and duration of rainy events. These changes may be associated with a reduction in the strength of the Mediterranean storm track

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 2. A survey of kinematic effects

We investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic “bunching effect” on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 × 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 × 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century.

The politics of weddings at Athens: an iconographic assessment

Despite recent scholarship that has suggested that most if not all Athenian vases were created primarily for the symposium, vases associated with weddings constitute a distinct range of Athenian products that were used at Athens in the period of the Peloponnesian War and its immediate aftermath (430-390 BCE). Just as the subject matter of sympotic vases suggested stories or other messages to the hetaireia among whom they were used, so the wedding vases may have conveyed messages to audiences at weddings. This paper is an assessment of these wedding vases with particular attention to function: how the images reflect the use of vases in wedding rituals (as containers and/or gifts); how the images themselves were understood and interpreted in the context of weddings; and the post-nuptial uses to which the vases were put. The first part is an iconographic overview of how the Athenian painters depicted weddings, with an emphasis on the display of pottery to onlookers and guests during the public parts of weddings, important events in the life of the polis. The second part focuses on a large group of late fifth century vases that depict personifications of civic virtues, normally in the retinue of Aphrodite (Pandemos). The images would reinforce social expectations, as they advertised the virtues that would create a happy marriage—Peitho, Harmonia (Harmony), and Eukleia (Good Repute)—and promise the benefits that might result from adherence to these values—Eudaimonia and Eutychia (Prosperity), Hygieia (Health), and Paidia (Play or Childrearing). Civic personifications could be interpreted on the private level—as personal virtues—and on the public level—as civic virtues— especially when they appeared on vases that functioned both in public and private, at weddings, which were public acknowledgments of private changes in the lives of individuals within the demos.

The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.