Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.

Female Reproductive Biology and Spawning Periodicity of Two Species of King Prawns, Penaeus longistylus Kubo and Penaeus latisulcatus Kishinouye, from Queensland's East Coast Fishery

In the coastal region of central Queensland female red-spot king prawns, P. longistylus, and the western or blue-leg king prawns, P. latisulcatus, had high mean ovary weights and high proportions of advanced ovary development during the winter months of July and August of 1985 and 1986. On the basis of insemination, both species began copulating at the size of 26-27 mm CL, but P. longistylus matured and spawned at a smaller size than P. latisulcatus. Abundance of P. longistylus was generally three to four times greater than that of P. latisulcatus but the latter was subject to greater variation in abundance. Low mean ovary weight and low proportions of females with advanced ovaries were associated with the maximum mean bottom sea-water temperature (28.5ºC) for both species. Population fecundity indices indicated that peaks in yolk or egg production (a) displayed a similar pattern for both species, (b) varied in timing from year to year for both species and (c) were strongly influenced by abundance. Generally, sample estimates of abundance and commercial catch rates (CPUE) showed similar trends. Differences between the two may have been due to changes in targeted commercial effort in this multi-species fishery.

Reproductive Biology and Spawning Periodicity of Endeavour Shrimps Metapenaeus endeavouri (Schmitt, 1926) and Metapenaeus ensis (de Haan, 1850) from a Central Queensland (Australia) Fishery

Metapenaeus endeavouri and M. ensis from coastal trawl fishing grounds off central Queensland, Australia, have marked seasonal reproductive cycles. Female M. endeavouri grew to a larger size than female M. ensis and occurred over a wider range of sites and depths. Although M. ensis was geographically restricted in distribution to only the shallowest sites it was highly abundant. Mating activity in these open thelycum species, indicated by the presence or absence of a spermatophore, was relatively low and highly seasonal compared with closed thelyeum shrimps. Seasonal variation in spermatophore insemination can be used as an independent technique to study spawning periodicity in open thelycum shrimps. Data strongly suggest an inshore movement of M. endeavouri to mature and spawn. This differs from most concepts of Penaeus species life cycles, but is consistent with the estuarine significance in the life cycle of Metapenaeus species. Monthly population fecundity indices suggest summer spawning for both species, which contrasts with the winter spawning of other shrimps from the same multispecies fishery.

Stock-recruitment relationships of the tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery

This paper investigates the stock-recruitment and equilibrium yield dynamics for the two species of tiger prawns (Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus) in Australia's most productive prawn fishery: the Northern Prawn Fishery. Commercial trawl logbooks for 1970-93 and research surveys are used to develop population models for these prawns. A population model that incorporates continuous recruitment is developed. Annual spawning stock and recruitment indices are then estimated from the population model. Spawning stock indices represent the abundance of female prawns that are likely to spawn; recruitment indices represent the abundance of all prawns less than a certain size. The relationships between spawning stock and subsequent recruitment (SRR), between recruitment and subsequent spawning stock (RSR), and between recruitment and commercial catch were estimated through maximum-likelihood models that incorporated autoregressive terms. Yield as a function of fishing effort was estimated by constraining to equilibrium the SRR and RSR. The resulting production model was then used to determine maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and its corresponding fishing effort (f(MSY)). Long-term yield estimates for the two tiger prawn species range between 3700 and 5300 t. The fishing effort at present is close to the level that should produce MSY for both species of tiger prawns. However, current landings, recruitment and spawning stock are below the equilibrium values predicted by the models. This may be because of uncertainty in the spawning stock-recruitment relationships, a change in carrying capacity, biased estimates of fishing effort, unreliable catch statistics, or simplistic assumptions about stock structure. Although our predictions of tiger prawn yields are uncertain, management will soon have to consider new measures to counteract the effects of future increases in fishing effort.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

Parental divorce and adjustment in adulthood: Findings from a community sample

The current study examines the link between the experience of divorce in childhood and several indices of adjustment in adulthood in a large community sample of women. Results replicated previous research on the long-term correlation between parental divorce and depression and divorce in adulthood. Results further suggested that parental divorce was associated with a wide range of early risk factors, life course patterns, and several indices of adult adjustment. Regression analyses indicated that the long-term correlation between parental divorce and depression in adulthood is explained by quality of parent-child and parental marital relations (in childhood), concurrent levels of stressful life events and social support, and cohabitation. The long-term association between parental divorce and experiencing a divorce in adulthood was partly mediated through quality of parent-child relations, teenage pregnancy, leaving home before 18 years, and educational attainment.