The SEIQS stochastic epidemic model with external source of infection

This paper deals with a stochastic epidemic model for computer viruses with latent and quarantine periods, and two sources of infection: internal and external. All sojourn times are considered random variables which are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. For this model extinction and hazard times are analyzed, giving results for their Laplace transforms and moments. The transient behavior is considered by studying the number of times that computers are susceptible, exposed, infectious and quarantined during a period of time (0, t] and results for their joint and marginal distributions, moments and cross moments are presented. In order to give light this analysis, some numerical examples are showed.

Phase Transitions in Disordered Systems: The Example of the Random-Field Ising Model in Four Dimensions

By performing a high-statistics simulation of the D = 4 random-field Ising model at zero temperature for different shapes of the random-field distribution, we show that the model is ruled by a single universality class. We compute to a high accuracy the complete set of critical exponents for this class, including the correction-to-scaling exponent. Our results indicate that in four dimensions (i) dimensional reduction as predicted by the perturbative renormalization group does not hold and (ii) three independent critical exponents are needed to describe the transition.

A model driven framework for geographic knowledge discovery

Geographic knowledge discovery (GKD) is the process of extracting information and knowledge from massive georeferenced databases. Usually the process is accomplished by two different systems, the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and the data mining engines. However, the development of those systems is a complex task due to it does not follow a systematic, integrated and standard methodology. To overcome these pitfalls, in this paper, we propose a modeling framework that addresses the development of the different parts of a multilayer GKD process. The main advantages of our framework are that: (i) it reduces the design effort, (ii) it improves quality systems obtained, (iii) it is independent of platforms, (iv) it facilitates the use of data mining techniques on geo-referenced data, and finally, (v) it ameliorates the communication between different users.

Assessing advertising in a hierarchical decision model

Many destination marketing organizations in the United States and elsewhere are facing budget retrenchment for tourism marketing, especially for advertising. This study evaluates a three-stage model using Random Coefficient Logit (RCL) approach which controls for correlations between different non-independent alternatives and considers heterogeneity within individual’s responses to advertising. The results of this study indicate that the proposed RCL model results in a significantly better fit as compared to traditional logit models, and indicates that tourism advertising significantly influences tourist decisions with several variables (age, income, distance and Internet access) moderating these decisions differently depending on decision stage and product type. These findings suggest that this approach provides a better foundation for assessing, and in turn, designing more effective advertising campaigns.

Trajectory-Based Morphological Operators: A Model for Efficient Image Processing

Mathematical morphology has been an area of intensive research over the last few years. Although many remarkable advances have been achieved throughout these years, there is still a great interest in accelerating morphological operations in order for them to be implemented in real-time systems. In this work, we present a new model for computing mathematical morphology operations, the so-called morphological trajectory model (MTM), in which a morphological filter will be divided into a sequence of basic operations. Then, a trajectory-based morphological operation (such as dilation, and erosion) is defined as the set of points resulting from the ordered application of the instant basic operations. The MTM approach allows working with different structuring elements, such as disks, and from the experiments, it can be extracted that our method is independent of the structuring element size and can be easily applied to industrial systems and high-resolution images.

Mathematical programming model for heat exchanger design through optimization of partial objectives

Mathematical programming can be used for the optimal design of shell-and-tube heat exchangers (STHEs). This paper proposes a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model for the design of STHEs, following rigorously the standards of the Tubular Exchanger Manufacturers Association (TEMA). Bell–Delaware Method is used for the shell-side calculations. This approach produces a large and non-convex model that cannot be solved to global optimality with the current state of the art solvers. Notwithstanding, it is proposed to perform a sequential optimization approach of partial objective targets through the division of the problem into sets of related equations that are easier to solve. For each one of these problems a heuristic objective function is selected based on the physical behavior of the problem. The global optimal solution of the original problem cannot be ensured even in the case in which each of the sub-problems is solved to global optimality, but at least a very good solution is always guaranteed. Three cases extracted from the literature were studied. The results showed that in all cases the values obtained using the proposed MINLP model containing multiple objective functions improved the values presented in the literature.

Rigorous Design of Complex Distillation Columns Using Process Simulators and the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

We present a derivative-free optimization algorithm coupled with a chemical process simulator for the optimal design of individual and complex distillation processes using a rigorous tray-by-tray model. The proposed approach serves as an alternative tool to the various models based on nonlinear programming (NLP) or mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) . This is accomplished by combining the advantages of using a commercial process simulator (Aspen Hysys), including especially suited numerical methods developed for the convergence of distillation columns, with the benefits of the particle swarm optimization (PSO) metaheuristic algorithm, which does not require gradient information and has the ability to escape from local optima. Our method inherits the superstructure developed in Yeomans, H.; Grossmann, I. E.Optimal design of complex distillation columns using rigorous tray-by-tray disjunctive programming models. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.2000, 39 (11), 4326–4335, in which the nonexisting trays are considered as simple bypasses of liquid and vapor flows. The implemented tool provides the optimal configuration of distillation column systems, which includes continuous and discrete variables, through the minimization of the total annual cost (TAC). The robustness and flexibility of the method is proven through the successful design and synthesis of three distillation systems of increasing complexity.

Human iPSC derived disease model of MERTK-associated retinitis pigmentosa

Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) represents a genetically heterogeneous group of retinal dystrophies affecting mainly the rod photoreceptors and in some instances also the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) cells of the retina. Clinical symptoms and disease progression leading to moderate to severe loss of vision are well established and despite significant progress in the identification of causative genes, the disease pathology remains unclear. Lack of this understanding has so far hindered development of effective therapies. Here we report successful generation of human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) from skin fibroblasts of a patient harboring a novel Ser331Cysfs*5 mutation in the MERTK gene. The patient was diagnosed with an early onset and severe form of autosomal recessive RP (arRP). Upon differentiation of these iPSC towards RPE, patient-specific RPE cells exhibited defective phagocytosis, a characteristic phenotype of MERTK deficiency observed in human patients and animal models. Thus we have created a faithful cellular model of arRP incorporating the human genetic background which will allow us to investigate in detail the disease mechanism, explore screening of a variety of therapeutic compounds/reagents and design either combined cell and gene- based therapies or independent approaches.

An Ecological Model for Predicting Behaviour of Mediterranean Shrublands

In order to build dynamic models for prediction and management of degraded Mediterranean forest areas was necessary to build MARIOLA model, which is a calculation computer program. This model includes the following subprograms. 1) bioshrub program, which calculates total, green and woody shrubs biomass and it establishes the time differences to calculate the growth. 2) selego program, which builds the flow equations from the experimental data. It is based on advanced procedures of statistical multiple regression. 3) VEGETATION program, which solves the state equations with Euler or Runge-Kutta integration methods. Each one of these subprograms can act as independent or as linked programs.

A daily rainfall erosivity model for Western Amazonia

Rainfall erosivities as defined by the R factor from the universal soil loss equation were determined for all events during a two-year period at the station La Cuenca in western Amazonia. Three methods based on a power relationship between rainfall amount and erosivity were then applied to estimate event and daily rainfall erosivities from the respective rainfall amounts. A test of the resulting regression equations against an independent data set proved all three methods equally adequate in predicting rainfall erosivity from daily rainfall amount. We recommend the Richardson model for testing in the Amazon Basin, and its use with the coefficient from La Cuenca in western Amazonia.

Is socioeconomic position early in life associated with physical activity during adulthood following the accumulation of risk model with additive effects?

L'activité physique améliore la santé, mais seulement 4.8% des Canadiens atteignent le niveau recommandé. La position socio-économique est un des déterminants de l'activité physique les plus importants. Elle est associée à l’activité physique de manière transversale à l’adolescence et à l’âge adulte. Cette thèse a tenté de déterminer s'il y a une association à long terme entre la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie et l’activité physique à l’âge adulte. S'il y en avait une, un deuxième objectif était de déterminer quel modèle théorique en épidémiologie des parcours de vie décrivait le mieux sa forme. Cette thèse comprend trois articles: une recension systématique et deux recherches originales. Dans la recension systématique, des recherches ont été faites dans Medline et EMBASE pour trouver les études ayant mesuré la position socio-économique avant l'âge de 18 ans et l'activité physique à ≥18 ans. Dans les deux recherches originales, la modélisation par équations structurelles a été utilisée pour comparer trois modèles alternatifs en épidémiologie des parcours de vie: le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effet déclenché et le modèle de période critique. Ces modèles ont été comparés dans deux cohortes prospectives représentatives à l'échelle nationale: la 1970 British birth cohort (n=16,571; première recherche) et l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes (n=16,903; deuxième recherche). Dans la recension systématique, 10 619 articles ont été passés en revue par deux chercheurs indépendants et 42 ont été retenus. Pour le résultat «activité physique» (tous types et mesures confondus), une association significative avec la position socio-économique durant l’enfance fut trouvée dans 26/42 études (61,9%). Quand seulement l’activité physique durant les loisirs a été considérée, une association significative fut trouvée dans 21/31 études (67,7%). Dans un sous-échantillon de 21 études ayant une méthodologie plus forte, les proportions d’études ayant trouvé une association furent plus hautes : 15/21 (71,4%) pour tous les types et toutes les mesures d’activité physique et 12/15 (80%) pour l’activité physique de loisir seulement. Dans notre première recherche originale sur les données de la British birth cohort, pour la classe sociale, nous avons trouvé que le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux chez les hommes et les femmes pour l’activité physique de loisir, au travail et durant les transports. Dans notre deuxième recherche originale sur les données canadiennes sur l'activité physique de loisir, nous avons trouvé que chez les hommes, le modèle de période critique s’est ajusté le mieux aux données pour le niveau d’éducation et le revenu, alors que chez les femmes, le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs s’est ajusté le mieux pour le revenu, tandis que le niveau d’éducation ne s’est ajusté à aucun des modèles testés. En conclusion, notre recension systématique indique que la position socio-économique au début du parcours de vie est associée à la pratique d'activité physique à l'âge adulte. Les résultats de nos deux recherches originales suggèrent un patron d’associations le mieux représenté par le modèle d’accumulation de risque avec effets additifs.

Downscaled land surface temperatures obtained by a particle smoothing approach, with links to NetCDF files

This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

(Table 1) Porosity, particle diameter, ATP content and carbon and nitrogen composition of ODP Site 164-994 sediments

Sediment samples were obtained for detailed Adenosine 5'-Triphosphate (ATP) analysis down to 57.8 m below the seafloor (mbsf). The samples were also analyzed for particle-size distribution, calcium carbonate (CaCO3), organic carbon, and total nitrogen. The concentrations of ATP ranged between 360 and 7050 pg/g (dry weight sediment), which agree well with a limited number of direct bacteria counts. Principal component analyses show that 63% of the total variance can be accounted for by the first two principal components. The concentration of ATP (bacterial numbers by inference) is virtually independent of the concentration of sedimentary organic carbon, but correlates with CaCO3 and coarse particles.