Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Development of a binary positive and negative protein fragment complementation assay using yeast cytosine deaminase

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Hormonal factors and insulin-like growth factor-1 in North American postmenopausal women

Background: Mechanisms underlying the effect of estrogen exposure on breast cancer risk remain unclear. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) levels have been positively associated with breast cancer and are a potential mechanism. Objectives: The objectives of this thesis are: 1) to explore whether the reproductive risk factors and the lifetime cumulative number of menstrual cycles (LCMC), as measures for long-term estrogen exposure, are associated with IGF-1 levels, and 2) to examine the effect of an aromatase inhibitor (AI) on IGF-1 levels, and the potential interaction with BMI. Methods: A cross sectional study and a randomized controlled trial nested with the MAP.3 chemoprevention trial were used to address objective 1 and 2, respectively. 567 postmenopausal women were selected. Anthropometric measurements, lifestyle factors, reproductive characteristics and serum IGF-1 concentrations were collected at baseline and one year. Objective 1. The LCMC was computed as a composite measure of the reproductive characteristics. Multivariable linear regression models were used to assess the association between IGF-1 levels and LCMC and the hormonal risk factors, while adjusting for potential covariates. Objective 2. Changes in IGF-1 were compared between the exemestane and placebo, and effect modification by BMI was tested with an interaction term. Results: Objective 1. Women aged 55 years or older at menopause had 16.26 ng/mL (95% CI: 1.76, 30.75) higher IGF-1 compared to women aged less than 50 years at menopause. Women in the highest category of menstrual cycles (≥500 cycles) had an average 19.00 ng/mL (95%CI: 5.86, 32.14) higher concentration of IGF-1 compared to women in the lowest category (<350). Exogenous hormones had no effect on postmenopausal IGF-1 levels. Objective 2. Exemestane significantly increased IGF-1 levels by 18% (95% CI: 14%-22%); while, placebo had no effect on IGF-1. The changes in IGF-1 were significantly different between the treatment arms (P<0.0001) and no significant interaction was observed between treatment and BMI on IGF-1 changes (P=0.1327). Conclusion: Objective 1. Larger number of menstrual cycles and a later age at menopause are positively associated with IGF-1. IGF-1 may be one mechanism by which prolonged estrogen exposure increases cancer risk. Objective 2. We conclude that the reduced cancer risk observed with AI therapy likely occurs in an IGF-1 independent mechanism. Further studies exploring the clinical consequences of increased IGF-1 on AI therapy are needed.

Optimisation of a droplet digital PCR assay for the diagnosis of Schistosoma japonicum infection: A duplex approach with DNA binding dye chemistry

Schistosomiasis is a chronically debilitating helminth infection with a significant socio-economic and public health impact. Accurate diagnostics play a pivotal role in achieving current schistosomiasis control and elimination goals. However, many of the current diagnostic procedures, which rely on detection of schistosome eggs, have major limitations including lack of accuracy and the inability to detect pre-patent infections. DNA-based detection methods provide a viable alternative to the current tests commonly used for schistosomiasis diagnosis. Here we describe the optimisation of a novel droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) duplex assay for the diagnosis of Schistosoma japonicum infection which provides improved detection sensitivity and specificity. The assay involves the amplification of two specific and abundant target gene sequences in S. japonicum; a retrotransposon (SjR2) and a portion of a mitochondrial gene (nad1). The assay detected target sequences in different sources of schistosome DNA isolated from adult worms, schistosomules and eggs, and exhibits a high level of specificity, thereby representing an ideal tool for the detection of low levels of parasite DNA in different clinical samples including parasite cell free DNA in the host circulation and other bodily fluids. Moreover, being quantitative, the assay can be used to determine parasite infection intensity and, could provide an important tool for the detection of low intensity infections in low prevalence schistosomiasis-endemic areas.

Association Between Results of a Gene Expression Signature Assay and Recurrence-Free Interval in Patients With Stage II Colon Cancer in Cancer and Leukemia Group B 9581 (Alliance)

PURPOSE: Conventional staging methods are inadequate to identify patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) who are at high risk of recurrence after surgery with curative intent. ColDx is a gene expression, microarray-based assay shown to be independently prognostic for recurrence-free interval (RFI) and overall survival in CC. The objective of this study was to further validate ColDx using formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens collected as part of the Alliance phase III trial, C9581.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: C9581 evaluated edrecolomab versus observation in patients with stage II CC and reported no survival benefit. Under an initial case-cohort sampling design, a randomly selected subcohort (RS) comprised 514 patients from 901 eligible patients with available tissue. Forty-nine additional patients with recurrence events were included in the analysis. Final analysis comprised 393 patients: 360 RS (58 events) and 33 non-RS events. Risk status was determined for each patient by ColDx. The Self-Prentice method was used to test the association between the resulting ColDx risk score and RFI adjusting for standard prognostic variables.

RESULTS: Fifty-five percent of patients (216 of 393) were classified as high risk. After adjustment for prognostic variables that included mismatch repair (MMR) deficiency, ColDx high-risk patients exhibited significantly worse RFI (multivariable hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.5; P < .01). Age and MMR status were marginally significant. RFI at 5 years for patients classified as high risk was 82% (95% CI, 79% to 85%), compared with 91% (95% CI, 89% to 93%) for patients classified as low risk.

CONCLUSION: ColDx is associated with RFI in the C9581 subsample in the presence of other prognostic factors, including MMR deficiency. ColDx could be incorporated with the traditional clinical markers of risk to refine patient prognosis.

Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi – a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Sepsis can lead to multiple organ failure and death. Timely and appropriate treatment can reduce in-hospital mortality and morbidity. Objectives: To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three tests [LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE® (Roche Diagnostics, Risch-Rotkreuz, Switzerland); SepsiTest™ (Molzym Molecular Diagnostics, Bremen, Germany); and the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay (Abbott Diagnostics, Lake Forest, IL, USA)] for the rapid identification of bloodstream bacteria and fungi in patients with suspected sepsis compared with standard practice (blood culture with or without matrix-absorbed laser desorption/ionisation time-offlight mass spectrometry). Data sources: Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched from January 2006 to May 2015 and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles. Review methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis of effectiveness studies were conducted. A review of published economic analyses was undertaken and a de novo health economic model was constructed. A decision tree was used to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each test; all other parameters were estimated from published sources. The model was populated with evidence from the systematic review or individual studies, if this was considered more appropriate (base case 1). In a secondary analysis, estimates (based on experience and opinion) from seven clinicians regarding the benefits of earlier test results were sought (base case 2). A NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was taken, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum. Scenario analyses were used to assess uncertainty. Results: For the review of diagnostic test accuracy, 62 studies of varying methodological quality were included. A meta-analysis of 54 studies comparing SeptiFast with blood culture found that SeptiFast had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0.84 to 0.89] and sensitivity of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.60 to 0.71). Four studies comparing SepsiTest with blood culture found that SepsiTest had an estimated summary specificity of 0.86 (95% CrI 0.78 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.48 (95% CrI 0.21 to 0.74), and four studies comparing IRIDICA with blood culture found that IRIDICA had an estimated summary specificity of 0.84 (95% CrI 0.71 to 0.92) and sensitivity of 0.81 (95% CrI 0.69 to 0.90). Owing to the deficiencies in study quality for all interventions, diagnostic accuracy data should be treated with caution. No randomised clinical trial evidence was identified that indicated that any of the tests significantly improved key patient outcomes, such as mortality or duration in an intensive care unit or hospital. Base case 1 estimated that none of the three tests provided a benefit to patients compared with standard practice and thus all tests were dominated. In contrast, in base case 2 it was estimated that all cost per QALY-gained values were below £20,000; the IRIDICA BAC BSI assay had the highest estimated incremental net benefit, but results from base case 2 should be treated with caution as these are not evidence based. Limitations: Robust data to accurately assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions are currently unavailable. Conclusions: The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the interventions cannot be reliably determined with the current evidence base. Appropriate studies, which allow information from the tests to be implemented in clinical practice, are required.

Sensitive and specific detection of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in raw milk by the Peptide-mediated magnetic separation (PMS)-phage assay

This study describes further validation of a previously described Peptide-mediated magnetic separation (PMS)-Phage assay, and its application to test raw cows’ milk for presence of viable Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The inclusivity and exclusivity of the PMS-phage assay were initially assessed, before the 50% limit of detection (LOD50) was determined and compared with those of PMS-qPCR (targeting both IS900 and f57) and PMS-culture. These methods were then applied in parallel to test 146 individual milk samples and 22 bulk tank milk samples from Johne’s affected herds. Viable MAP were detected by the PMS-phage assay in 31 (21.2%) of 146 individual milk samples (mean plaque count of 228.1 PFU/50 ml, range 6-948 PFU/50 ml), and 13 (59.1%) of 22 bulk tank milks (mean plaque count of 136.83 PFU/50 ml, range 18-695 PFU/50 ml). In contrast, only 7 (9.1%) of 77 individual milks and 10 (45.4%) of 22 bulk tank milks tested PMS-qPCR positive, and 17 (11.6%) of 146 individual milks and 11 (50%) of 22 bulk tank milks tested PMS-culture positive. The mean 50% limits of detection (LOD50) of the PMS-phage, PMS-IS900 qPCR and PMS-f57 qPCR assays, determined by testing MAP-spiked milk, were 0.93, 135.63 and 297.35 MAP CFU/50 ml milk, respectively. Collectively, these results demonstrate that, in our laboratory, the PMS-phage assay is a sensitive and specific method to quickly detect the presence of viable MAP cells in milk. However, due to its complicated, multi-step nature, the method would not be a suitable MAP screening method for the dairy industry.

Hormonal changes related to paternal and alloparental care in common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus)

The physiological mechanisms of parental and alloparental care in cooperatively breeding nonhuman primate species such as the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) are poorly known. In this study, we examined prolactin and cortisol plasma levels of fathers and older offspring of both sexes, with and without previous experience in infant carrying, around parturition and during infant carrying. Blood samples were collected from fathers and older offspring and prolactin and cortisol were measured by RIA and EIA, respectively. Prolactin levels of both caretakers were not influenced by infant’s birth, previous experience or proximity to parturition. However, prolactin levels increased in both caretakers while in physical contact with infants and also with the number of infants being carried in older offspring. These findings suggest that increased prolactin seems to be mainly due to physical effort rather than a physiological trigger of paternal and alloparental care in common marmosets. Cortisol levels were higher for experienced fathers shortly before parturition which could act to reinforce affiliative bonds between breeding males and females at this time or in the ability of males to detect the proximity of the parturition or both

Development of A Flow Cytometry Assay for Measurement of CD4+ T Cell Proliferation

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06