Buy low, sell high

We consider online trading in a single security with the objective of getting rich when its price ever exhibits a large upcrossing, without risking bankruptcy. We investigate payoff guarantees that are expressed in terms of the extremity of the upcrossings. We obtain an exact and elegant characterisation of the guarantees that can be achieved. Moreover, we derive a simple canonical strategy for each attainable guarantee.

Gaming well: Links between videogames and flourishing mental health

This paper is a review of the state of play of research linking videogaming and flourishing, and explores the role of videogames and technology to improve mental health and well-being. Its purpose is to develop understandings about the positive intersection of gaming and well-being, to document evidence regarding links between videogames and positive mental health, and to provide guidelines for use by other researchers as they design and use tools and games to improve mental health and well-being. Using Huppert's (Huppert and So, 2013) proposition that to flourish is more than the absence of mental disorder but rather a combination of feeling good and functioning effectively, resulting in high levels of mental well-being, and Seligman's (Seligman, 2011) PERMA theory of well-being, the paper identifies strengths in existing games that generate positive affect, positive functioning, and positive social functioning, contributing to, and supporting mental health and well-being.

Evaluative decision-making for high-quality professional development: Cultivating an evaluative stance

Unprecedented policy attention to early childhood education internationally has highlighted the crucial need for a skilled early years workforce. Consequently, professional development of early years educators has become a global policy imperative. At the same time, many maintain that professional development research has reached an impasse. In this paper, we offer a new approach to addressing this impasse. In contrast to calls for a redesign of comparative studies of professional development programs, or for the refinement of researcher-constructed professional development evaluation frameworks, we argue the need to cultivate what we refer to as an ‘evaluative stance’ amongst all involved in making decisions about professional development in the early years – from senior bureaucrats with responsibilities for funding professional development programs to individual educators with choices about which professional development opportunities to take up. Drawing on three bodies of literature -- evaluation capacity building, personal epistemology, and co-production -- that, for the most part, have been overlooked with respect to early years professional learning this paper proposes a conceptual framework to explain why cultivating an evaluative stance in professional development decision-making has rich possibilities for systemic, sustainable, and transformative change in early years education.

High order unconditionally stable difference schemes for the Riesz space-fractional telegraph equation

In this paper, a class of unconditionally stable difference schemes based on the Pad´e approximation is presented for the Riesz space-fractional telegraph equation. Firstly, we introduce a new variable to transform the original dfferential equation to an equivalent differential equation system. Then, we apply a second order fractional central difference scheme to discretise the Riesz space-fractional operator. Finally, we use (1, 1), (2, 2) and (3, 3) Pad´e approximations to give a fully discrete difference scheme for the resulting linear system of ordinary differential equations. Matrix analysis is used to show the unconditional stability of the proposed algorithms. Two examples with known exact solutions are chosen to assess the proposed difference schemes. Numerical results demonstrate that these schemes provide accurate and efficient methods for solving a space-fractional hyperbolic equation.

Model refinement through high-performance computing: an agent-based HIV example

Background Recent advances in Immunology highlighted the importance of local properties on the overall progression of HIV infection. In particular, the gastrointestinal tract is seen as a key area during early infection, and the massive cell depletion associated with it may influence subsequent disease progression. This motivated the development of a large-scale agent-based model. Results Lymph nodes are explicitly implemented, and considerations on parallel computing permit large simulations and the inclusion of local features. The results obtained show that GI tract inclusion in the model leads to an accelerated disease progression, during both the early stages and the long-term evolution, compared to a theoretical, uniform model. Conclusions These results confirm the potential of treatment policies currently under investigation, which focus on this region. They also highlight the potential of this modelling framework, incorporating both agent-based and network-based components, in the context of complex systems where scaling-up alone does not result in models providing additional insights.

Complexity and high-end computing in biology and medicine

Biomedical systems involve a large number of entities and intricate interactions between these. Their direct analysis is, therefore, difficult, and it is often necessary to rely on computational models. These models require significant resources and parallel computing solutions. These approaches are particularly suited, given parallel aspects in the nature of biomedical systems. Model hybridisation also permits the integration and simultaneous study of multiple aspects and scales of these systems, thus providing an efficient platform for multidisciplinary research.

High-performance computing for data analytics

One of the main challenges in data analytics is that discovering structures and patterns in complex datasets is a computer-intensive task. Recent advances in high-performance computing provide part of the solution. Multicore systems are now more affordable and more accessible. In this paper, we investigate how this can be used to develop more advanced methods for data analytics. We focus on two specific areas: model-driven analysis and data mining using optimisation techniques.

A Novel High Order Space-Time Spectral Method for the Time Fractional Fokker--Planck Equation

The fractional Fokker-Planck equation is an important physical model for simulating anomalous diffusions with external forces. Because of the non-local property of the fractional derivative an interesting problem is to explore high accuracy numerical methods for fractional differential equations. In this paper, a space-time spectral method is presented for the numerical solution of the time fractional Fokker-Planck initial-boundary value problem. The proposed method employs the Jacobi polynomials for the temporal discretization and Fourier-like basis functions for the spatial discretization. Due to the diagonalizable trait of the Fourier-like basis functions, this leads to a reduced representation of the inner product in the Galerkin analysis. We prove that the time fractional Fokker-Planck equation attains the same approximation order as the time fractional diffusion equation developed in [23] by using the present method. That indicates an exponential decay may be achieved if the exact solution is sufficiently smooth. Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the high order accuracy and efficiency of the new numerical scheme. The results show that the errors of the numerical solutions obtained by the space-time spectral method decay exponentially.

Family-based programmes for preventing smoking by children and adolescents (Review)

Background There is evidence that family and friends influence children's decisions to smoke. Objectives To assess the effectiveness of interventions to help families stop children starting smoking. Search methods We searched 14 electronic bibliographic databases, including the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialized register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL unpublished material, and key articles' reference lists. We performed free-text internet searches and targeted searches of appropriate websites, and hand-searched key journals not available electronically. We consulted authors and experts in the field. The most recent search was 3 April 2014. There were no date or language limitations. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions with children (aged 5-12) or adolescents (aged 13-18) and families to deter tobacco use. The primary outcome was the effect of the intervention on the smoking status of children who reported no use of tobacco at baseline. Included trials had to report outcomes measured at least six months from the start of the intervention. Data collection and analysis We reviewed all potentially relevant citations and retrieved the full text to determine whether the study was an RCT and matched our inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted study data for each RCT and assessed them for risk of bias. We pooled risk ratios using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect model. Main results Twenty-seven RCTs were included. The interventions were very heterogeneous in the components of the family intervention, the other risk behaviours targeted alongside tobacco, the age of children at baseline and the length of follow-up. Two interventions were tested by two RCTs, one was tested by three RCTs and the remaining 20 distinct interventions were tested only by one RCT. Twenty-three interventions were tested in the USA, two in Europe, one in Australia and one in India. The control conditions fell into two main groups: no intervention or usual care; or school-based interventions provided to all participants. These two groups of studies were considered separately. Most studies had a judgement of 'unclear' for at least one risk of bias criteria, so the quality of evidence was downgraded to moderate. Although there was heterogeneity between studies there was little evidence of statistical heterogeneity in the results. We were unable to extract data from all studies in a format that allowed inclusion in a meta-analysis. There was moderate quality evidence family-based interventions had a positive impact on preventing smoking when compared to a no intervention control. Nine studies (4810 participants) reporting smoking uptake amongst baseline non-smokers could be pooled, but eight studies with about 5000 participants could not be pooled because of insufficient data. The pooled estimate detected a significant reduction in smoking behaviour in the intervention arms (risk ratio [RR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68 to 0.84). Most of these studies used intensive interventions. Estimates for the medium and low intensity subgroups were similar but confidence intervals were wide. Two studies in which some of the 4487 participants already had smoking experience at baseline did not detect evidence of effect (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.17). Eight RCTs compared a combined family plus school intervention to a school intervention only. Of the three studies with data, two RCTS with outcomes for 2301 baseline never smokers detected evidence of an effect (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.96) and one study with data for 1096 participants not restricted to never users at baseline also detected a benefit (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.94). The other five studies with about 18,500 participants did not report data in a format allowing meta-analysis. One RCT also compared a family intervention to a school 'good behaviour' intervention and did not detect a difference between the two types of programme (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.38, n = 388). No studies identified any adverse effects of intervention. Authors' conclusions There is moderate quality evidence to suggest that family-based interventions can have a positive effect on preventing children and adolescents from starting to smoke. There were more studies of high intensity programmes compared to a control group receiving no intervention, than there were for other compairsons. The evidence is therefore strongest for high intensity programmes used independently of school interventions. Programmes typically addressed family functioning, and were introduced when children were between 11 and 14 years old. Based on this moderate quality evidence a family intervention might reduce uptake or experimentation with smoking by between 16 and 32%. However, these findings should be interpreted cautiously because effect estimates could not include data from all studies. Our interpretation is that the common feature of the effective high intensity interventions was encouraging authoritative parenting (which is usually defined as showing strong interest in and care for the adolescent, often with rule setting). This is different from authoritarian parenting (do as I say) or neglectful or unsupervised parenting.

The effect of feedback from pupil to teacher on assessment for leaning and visible learning: An ethnographic case study in a community school in England and the outcome in a state high school in Queensland, Australia

This study shows that there is positive regulatory effect of feedback from pupils to teachers on Assessment for Learning (AfL), classroom proactiveness, and on visible and progressive learning but not on behaviour. This research finding further articulates feedback from pupil to teacher as a paradigm shift from the classical paradigm of feedback from teacher to pupil. Here, the emphasis is geared towards pupils understanding of objectives built from previous knowledge. These are then feedback onto the teachers by the pupils in the form of discrete loops of cues and questions, where they are with their learning. This therefore enables them to move to the next level of understanding, and thus acquired independence, which in turn is reflected by their success in both formative and summative assessments. This study therefore shows that when feedback from pupil to teacher is used in combination with teacher to pupil feedback, AfL is ameliorated and hence, visible and accelerated learning occurs in a gender, nor subject non-dependent manner.

Product stability and sequestration mechanisms in Solanum tuberosum engineered to biosynthesize high value ketocarotenoids

To produce commercially valuable ketocarotenoids in Solanum tuberosum, the 4, 4′ β-oxygenase (crtW) and 3, 3′ β-hydroxylase (crtZ) genes from Brevundimonas spp. have been expressed in the plant host under constitutive transcriptional control. The CRTW and CRTZ enzymes are capable of modifying endogenous plant carotenoids to form a range of hydroxylated and ketolated derivatives. The host (cv. Désirée) produced significant levels of nonendogenous carotenoid products in all tissues, but at the apparent expense of the economically critical metabolite, starch. Carotenoid levels increased in both wild-type and transgenic tubers following cold storage; however, stability during heat processing varied between compounds. Subcellular fractionation of leaf tissues revealed the presence of ketocarotenoids in thylakoid membranes, but not predominantly in the photosynthetic complexes. A dramatic increase in the carotenoid content of plastoglobuli was determined. These findings were corroborated by microscopic analysis of chloroplasts. In tuber tissues, esterified carotenoids, representing 13% of the total pigment found in wild-type extracts, were sequestered in plastoglobuli. In the transgenic tubers, this proportion increased to 45%, with esterified nonendogenous carotenoids in place of endogenous compounds. Conversely, nonesterified carotenoids in both wild-type and transgenic tuber tissues were associated with amyloplast membranes and starch granules.

Psychosocial functioning in patients with alcohol-related liver disease post liver transplantation

Emotional and role functioning difficulties are associated with chronic alcohol use and liver disease. Little is known about prospective changes in psychological and psychosocial functioning following orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) amongst patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD). We aimed to assess the functioning of this patient group post liver transplantation. Comprehensive psychosocial assessment of depression (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI]), anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Form X [STAI]) and psychosocial adjustment (Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale-Self-Report version [PAIS-SR]) was conducted with 42 ALD patients available for pre and post OLT testing. Dependence severity was assessed by the Brief Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (bMAST). Significant reductions in average anxiety and depression symptoms were observed 12-months post-OLT. Significant improvements in psychosocial adjustment to illness were also reported. Patients with higher levels of alcohol dependence severity pre transplant assessment improved comparably to those with lower levels of dependence. In summary, the study found that OLT contributed to reducing overall levels of mood and anxiety symptoms in ALD patients, approximating general (non-clinical) population norms. Psychosocial adjustment also improved significantly post liver transplantation.

Refining prognosis and identifying targetable pathways for high-risk endometrial cancer; a TransPORTEC initiative

This study aimed to investigate whether molecular analysis can be used to refine risk assessment, direct adjuvant therapy, and identify actionable alterations in high-risk endometrial cancer. TransPORTEC, an international consortium related to the PORTEC3 trial, was established for translational research in high-risk endometrial cancer. In this explorative study, routine molecular analyses were used to detect prognostic subgroups: p53 immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability and POLE proofreading mutation. Furthermore, DNA was analyzed for hotspot mutations in 13 additional genes (BRAF, CDKNA2, CTNNB1, FBXW7, FGFR2, FGFR3, FOXL2, HRAS, KRAS, NRAS, PIK3CA, PPP2R1A, and PTEN) and protein expression of ER, PR, PTEN, and ARID1a was analyzed. Rates of distant metastasis, recurrence-free, and overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. In total, samples of 116 high-risk endometrial cancer patients were included: 86 endometrioid; 12 serous; and 18 clear cell. For endometrioid, serous, and clear cell cancers, 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were 68%, 27%, and 50% (P=0.014) and distant metastasis rates 23%, 64%, and 50% (P=0.001), respectively. Four prognostic subgroups were identified: (1) a group of p53-mutant tumors; (2) microsatellite instable tumors; (3) POLE proofreading-mutant tumors; and (4) a group with no specific molecular profile (NSMP). In group 3 (POLE-mutant; n=14) and group 2 (microsatellite instable; n=19) patients, no distant metastasis occurred, compared with 50% distant metastasis rate in group 1 (p53-mutant; n=36) and 39% in group 4 (NSMP; P<0.001). Five-year recurrence-free survival was 93% and 95% for group 3 (POLE-mutant) and group 2 (microsatellite instable) vs 42% (group 1, p53-mutant) and 52% (group 4, NSMP; P<0.001). Targetable FBXW7 and FGFR2 mutations (6%), alterations in the PI3K-AKT pathway (60%) and hormone receptor positivity (45%) were frequently found. In conclusion, molecular analysis of high-risk endometrial cancer identifies four distinct prognostic subgroups, with potential therapeutic implications. High frequencies of targetable alterations were identified and may serve as targets for individualized treatment

Who struggles most in making a career choice and why? Findings from a cross-sectional survey of Australian high-school students

This paper reports findings from an empirical study examining the influence of student background and educational experiences on the development of career choice capability. Secondary school students attending years 9-12 (N = 706) in New South Wales, Australia, were invited to participate in an online survey that sought to examine factors influencing their readiness to make career choice. The survey included questions relating to student demographics, parental occupation, attitudes to school and to learning, career aspirations, and students’ knowledge of the further education or skills required to achieve their desired goal. We found no significant differences in the proportions of students who were ‘uncertain’ of their future career aspirations with respect to their individual characteristics such as age and gender. There were, however, significant differences in relation to students’ family background, and their perceptions associated with own academic abilities and self-efficacy.