Physical activity and survival after a first myocardial infarction: The Corpus Christi Heart Project

Previous studies have demonstrated that habitual physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD). However, the role of physical activity in lowering the risk of all-cause mortality, CHD mortality, reinfarction, or receipt of a revascularization procedure after a first myocardial infarction (MI) remains unresolved, particularly in minority populations. To investigate the associations between physical activity and risk of all-cause mortality, CHD mortality, reinfarction, and receipt of a revascularization procedure, this study was conducted among Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white women and men who survived a first MI. The Corpus Christi Heart Project, a population-based cardiovascular surveillance study, provide data which included vital status, survival time, medical history, CHD risk factor information, including level of physical activity among Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white adults who had experienced a first MI between May, 1988 and April, 1990. MI patients were interviewed at baseline and annually thereafter until their death or through May, 1995. A categorical variable was created to reflect change in level of physical activity following the first MI; categories included (1) sedentary with no change, (2) decreased activity, (3) increased activity, and (4) moderate activity with no change (the referent group). Proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the relationship of level of physical activity and risk of death, reinfarction, or receipt of a revascularization procedure adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, severity of MI, and CHD risk factor status. Over a 7-year follow-up period, the relative risk (95% confidence intervals) of all-cause mortality was 4.67 (2.27, 9.60) for the sedentary-no change group, 2.33 (0.96, 5.67) for the decreased activity group, and 0.52 (0.11, 2.41) for the increased activity group. The relative risk of CHD mortality was 6.92 (2.05, 23.34) for the sedentary-no change group, 2.40 (0.55, 10.51) for the decreased activity group, and 1.58 (0.26, 9.65) for the increased activity group. The relative risk for reinfarction was 2.50 (1.52, 4.10) for the sedentary-no change group, 2.26 (1.24, 4.12) for the decreased activity group, and 0.52 (0.21, 1.32) for the increased activity group. Finally, the relative risk for receipt of a revascularization procedure was 0.65 (0.39, 1.07) for the sedentary-no change group, 0.45 (0.22, 0.92) for the decreased activity group, and 1.01 (0.51, 2.02) for the increased activity group. No interactions were observed for ethnicity or severity of first MI. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that moderate physical activity is independently associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, CHD mortality, and reinfarction, but not revascularization, among Mexican-American and non-Hispanic white, female and male, first MI patients. These results also support the current recommendation that physical activity plays an important role in the secondary prevention of CHD. ^

A comparison of Markov and generalized linear models of hospital mortality

This paper reports a comparison of three modeling strategies for the analysis of hospital mortality in a sample of general medicine inpatients in a Department of Veterans Affairs medical center. Logistic regression, a Markov chain model, and longitudinal logistic regression were evaluated on predictive performance as measured by the c-index and on accuracy of expected numbers of deaths compared to observed. The logistic regression used patient information collected at admission; the Markov model was comprised of two absorbing states for discharge and death and three transient states reflecting increasing severity of illness as measured by laboratory data collected during the hospital stay; longitudinal regression employed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) to model covariance structure for the repeated binary outcome. Results showed that the logistic regression predicted hospital mortality as well as the alternative methods but was limited in scope of application. The Markov chain provides insights into how day to day changes of illness severity lead to discharge or death. The longitudinal logistic regression showed that increasing illness trajectory is associated with hospital mortality. The conclusion is reached that for standard applications in modeling hospital mortality, logistic regression is adequate, but for new challenges facing health services research today, alternative methods are equally predictive, practical, and can provide new insights. ^

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Risk, outcomes, and cost of emergency center visits in cancer patients

Cancer is a chronic disease that often necessitates recurrent hospitalizations, a costly pattern of medical care utilization. In chronically ill patients, most readmissions are for treatment of the same condition that caused the preceding hospitalization. There is concern that rather than reducing costs, earlier discharge may shift costs from the initial hospitalization to emergency center visits. ^ This is the first descriptive study to measure the incidence of emergency center visits (ECVs) after hospitalization at The University of M. D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC), to identify the risk factors for and outcomes of these ECVs, and to compare 30-day all-cause mortality and costs for episodes of care with and without ECVs. ^ We identified all hospitalizations at UTMDACC with admission dates from September 1, 1993 through August 31, 1997 which met inclusion criteria. Data were electronically obtained primarily from UTMDACC's institutional database. Demographic factors, clinical factors, duration of the index hospitalization, method of payment for care, and year of hospitalization study were variables determined for each hospitalization. ^ The overall incidence of ECVs was 18%. Forty-five percent of ECVs resulted in hospital readmission (8% of all hospitalizations). In 1% of ECVs the patient died in the emergency center, and for the remaining 54% of ECVs the patient was discharged home. Risk factors for ECVs were marital status, type of index hospitalization, cancer type, and duration of the index hospitalization. The overall 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 8.6% for hospitalizations with an ECV and 5.3% for those without an ECV. In all subgroups, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was higher for groups with ECVs than for those without ECVs. The most important factor increasing cost was having an ECV. In all patient subgroups, the cost per episode of care with an ECV was at least 1.9 times the cost per episode without an ECV. ^ The higher costs and poorer outcomes of episodes of care with ECVs and hospital readmissions suggest that interventions to avoid these ECVs or mitigate their costs are needed. Further research is needed to improve understanding of the methodological issues involved in relation to health care issues for cancer patients. ^

Prediction of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Mexican-American children from parental risk factors, and social and demographic characteristics in the HHANES

Objectives. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) including CVD secondary to diabetes type II, a significant health problem among Mexican American populations, originates in early childhood. This study seeks to determine risk factors available to the health practitioner that can identify the child at potential risk of developing CVD, thereby enabling early intervention. ^ Design. This is a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data of matched Mexican American parents and children selected from the HHANES, 1982–1984. ^ Methods. Parents at high risk for CVD were identified based on medical history, and clinical and physical findings. Factor analysis was performed on children's skinfold thicknesses, height, weight, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, in order to produce a limited number of uncorrelated child CVD risk factors. Multiple regression analyses were then performed to determine other CVD markers associated with these Factors, independently for mothers and fathers. ^ Results. Factor analysis of children's measurements revealed three uncorrelated latent variables summarizing the children's CVD risk: Factor1: ‘Fatness’, Factor2: ‘Size and Maturity’, and Factor3: ‘Blood Pressure’, together accounting for the bulk of variation in children's measurements (86–89%). Univariate analyses showed that children from high CVD risk families did not differ from children of low risk families in occurrence of high blood pressure, overweight, biological maturity, acculturation score, or social and economic indicators. However, multiple regression using the factor scores (from factor analysis) as dependent variables, revealed that higher CVD risk in parents, was significantly associated with increased fatness and increased blood pressure in the children. Father's CVD risk status was associated with higher levels of body fat in his children and higher levels of blood pressure in sons. Mother's CVD risk status was associated with higher blood pressure levels in children, and occurrence of obesity in the mother associated with higher fatness levels in her children. ^ Conclusion. Occurrence of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors in parents of Mexican American children, may be used to identify children at potentially higher risk for developing CV disease in the future. Obesity in mothers appears to be an important marker for the development of higher levels of body fatness in children. ^

Behavioral and psychosocial factors associated with sexual risk in a population of crack cocaine users

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relationship between key psychosocial and behavioral components of the Transtheoretical Model and the Theory of Reasoned Action for sexual risk reduction in a population of crack cocaine smokers and sex workers, not in drug treatment. ^ The first study examined the results of an analysis of the association between two principal constructs in the Transtheoretical Model, the processes of change and the stages of change for condom use, in a high risk population. In the analysis of variance for all respondents, the overall F-test revealed that people in different stages have different levels of experiential process use, F(3,317) = 17.79, p = 0.0001 and different levels of behavioral process use, F(3,317) = 28.59, p = .0001. For the experiential processes, there was a significant difference between the precontemplation/contemplation stage, and both the action, and maintenance, stages.^ The second study explored the relationship between the Theory of Reasoned Action “beliefs” and the stages-of-change in the same population. In the analysis of variance for all participants, the results indicate that people in different stages did value the positive beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 15.38, p = .0001 but did not value the negative beliefs differently, F(3,502) = 2.08, p = .10. ^ The third study explored differences in stage-of-change by gender, partner type drug use, and HIV status. Three discriminant functions emerged, with a combined χ2(12) = 139.57, p = <.0001. The loading matrix of correlations between predictors and discriminant functions demonstrate that the strongest predictor for distinguishing between the precontemplation/contemplation stage and the preparation, action, and maintenance stages (first function) is partner type (.962). The loadings on the second discriminant function suggest that once partner type has been accounted for, ever having HIV/AIDS (.935) was the best predictor for distinguishing between the first three stages and the maintenance stage. ^ These studies demonstrate that behavioral change theories can contribute important insight to researchers and program planners attempting to alter HIV risk behavior in high-risk populations. ^

The location of majority and minority populations with respect to commercial treatment, storage, and disposal facilities in Texas

There is a growing interest in the location of Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSDF) sites in relation to minority communities. A number of studies have been completed, and the results of these studies have been varied. Some of the studies have shown a strong positive correlation between the location of TSDF sites and minority populations, while a few have shown no significance in that relationship. The major difference between these studies has been in the areal unit used.^ This study compared the minority populations of Texas census tracts and ZIP codes containing a TSDF using the associated county as the comparison population. The hypothesis of this study was that there was no difference between using census tracts and ZIP codes to analyze the relationship of minority populations and TSDF's. The census data used was from 1990, and the initial list of TSDF sites was supplied by the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission. The TSDF site locations were checked using graphical information systems (GIS) programs, in order to increase the accuracy of the identity of exposed ZIP codes and census tracts. The minority populations of the exposed areal units were compared using proportional differences, crosstables, maps, and logistic regression. The dependent variable used was the exposure status of the areal units under study, including counties, census tracts, and ZIP codes. The independent variables used included minority group proportion and grouping of the proportions, educational status, household income, and home value.^ In all cases, education was significant or near significant at the.05 level. Education rather than minority proportion was therefore the most significant predictor of the exposure status of a census tract or ZIP code. ^

Relationship between enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli and travelers' diarrhea in Mexico, from 1992 to 1997

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between enterotoxigenic ETEC and travelers' diarrhea over a period of five years in Guadalajara, Mexico. Specifically, this study identified and characterized ETEC from travelers with diarrhea. The objectives were to study the colonization factor antigens, toxins and antibiotic sensitivity patterns in ETEC from 1992 to 1997 and to study the molecular epidemiology of ETEC by plasmid content and DNA restriction fragment patterns. ^ In this survey of travelers' diarrhea in Guadalajara, Mexico, 928 travelers with diarrhea were screened for enteric pathogens between 1992 and 1997. ETEC were isolated in 195 (19.9%) of the patients, representing the most frequent enteric pathogen identified. ^ A total of 31 antimicrobial susceptibility patterns were identified among ETEC isolates over the five-year period. ^ The 195 ETEC isolates contained two to six plasmids each, which ranged in size from 2.0 to 23 kbp. ^ Three different reproducible rRNA gene restriction patterns (ribotypes R-1 to R-3) were obtained among the 195 isolates with the enzyme, HindIII. ^ Colonization factor antigens (CFAs) were identified in 99 (51%) of the 195 ETEC strains studied. ^ Cluster analysis of the observations seen in the four assays all confirmed the five distinct groups of study-year strains of ETEC. Each group had a >95% similarity level of strains within the group and <60% similarity level between the groups. In addition, discriminant analysis of assay variables used in predicting the ETEC strains, reveal a >80% relationship between both the plasmid and rRNA content of ETEC strains and study-year. ^ These findings, based on laboratory observations of the differences in biochemical, antimicrobial susceptibility, plasmid and ribotype content, suggest complex epidemiology for ETEC strains in a population with travelers' diarrhea. The findings of this study may have implications for our understanding of the epidemiology, transmission, treatment, control and prevention of the disease. It has been suggested that an ETEC vaccine for humans should contain the most prevalent CFAs. Therefore, it is important to know the prevalence of these factors in ETEC in various geographical areas. ^ CFAs described in this dissertation may be used in different epidemiological studies in which the prevalence of CFAs and other properties on ETEC will be evaluated. Furthermore, in spite of an intense search in near 200 ETEC isolates for strains that may have clonal relationship, we failed to identify such strains. However, further studies are in progress to construct suitable live vaccine strains and to introduce several of CFAs in the same host organism by recombinant DNA techniques (Dr. Ann-Mari Svennerholm's lab). (Abstract shortened by UMI.)^

Cultural beliefs and hypertension in rural Philippines

Hypertension (HTN), the major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), is emerging as a major public health problem in the Philippines. CVD has been the leading cause of mortality in the Philippines since 1990. ^ Although research has shown that certain populations have a greater propensity for HTN, and that culture may be a factor, empirical investigations of the influence of cultural beliefs on HTN are lacking. ^ The operational aims of this study were to: (a) develop and examine the reliability (test-retest, internal consistency) and validity (content) of a questionnaire which measures factors related to HTN; (b) administer the questionnaire; and (c) measure blood pressure, height, and weight of the ≥ 30 year old residents of San Antonio, Nueva Ecija, Philippines. ^ The analytic aims were to determine the: (a) cultural beliefs relating to HTN; (b) associations between cultural beliefs and HTN; and (c) extent to which cultural beliefs versus biological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and access factors are associated with HTN. ^ A cluster survey was conducted among 336 residents ≥ 30 years old in May, 1998. Sixty clusters of households were derived using probability proportionate to size sampling technique. Seven households per cluster were visited and one respondent per household was randomly chosen for interview and measurement of blood pressure, height and weight. A response rate of 84% (336/400) was achieved. ^ Results showed that the test-retest reliability of cultural belief items was 0.69–0.96. Internal consistency reliability was 0.74. ^ HTN (SBP ≥ 140; or DBP ≥ 90 mmHg; or currently taking anti-hypertensive medication) prevalence was 23/100. Univariate logistic regression showed cultural beliefs to be significantly associated (p < 0.037) with HTN. However, multivariate analysis showed that only age ≥ 50 (p = 0.000), family history of HTN (p = 0.004) and body mass index ≥ 25 (p = 0.003) were significant predictors. ^ In the absence of fully implemented programs to prevent and control HTN, the current prevalence is only expected to increase, leading to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality and health care cost. It is recommended that research which focuses on designing, implementing, and evaluating culturally appropriate community-wide programs on HTN prevention and control be undertaken in this community. ^

Alcohol consumption and breast cancer risk among Hispanic and non-Hispanic women in New Mexico

Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates for Hispanic women are lower than for non-Hispanic white (NHW) women, but recently rates have increased more rapidly among Hispanic women. Many studies have shown a consistent increased breast cancer risk associated with modest or high alcohol intake, but few included Hispanic women. Alcohol consumption and risk of breast cancer was investigated in a New Mexico statewide population-based case-control study. The New Mexico Tumor Registry ascertained women, newly diagnosed with breast cancer (1992–1994) aged 30–74 years. Controls were identified by random digit dialing and were frequency-matched for ethnicity, age-group, and health planning district. In-person interviews of 712 cases and 844 controls were conducted. Data were collected for breast cancer risk factors, including alcohol intake. Recent alcohol intake data was collected for a four-week period, six months prior to interview. Past alcohol intake included information on alcohol consumption at ages 25, 35, and 50. History of alcohol consumption was reported by 81% of cases and 85% of controls. Of these women, 42% of cases and 48% of controls reported recent alcohol intake. Results for past alcohol intake did not show any trend with breast cancer risk, and were nonsignificant. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios for recent alcohol intake and breast cancer suggested an increased risk at the highest level for both ethnic groups, but estimates were unstable and statistically nonsignificant. Low level of recent alcohol intake (<148 grams/week) was associated with a reduced risk for NHW women (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.49 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.35–0.69). This pattern was independent of hormone-receptor status. The reduced breast cancer risk for low alcohol intake was present for premenopausal (OR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.15–0.56) and postmenopausal NHW women (OR = 0.56, 95% CI 0.35–0.90). The possibility of an increased risk associated with high alcohol intake could not be adequately addressed, because there were few drinkers with more than light to moderate intake, especially among Hispanic women. An alcohol-estrogen link is hypothesized to be the mechanism responsible for increased breast cancer risk, but has not been consistently substantiated. More studies are needed of the underlying mechanism for an association between alcohol intake and breast cancer. ^

Relationships between the alterations of tumor suppressor genes, risk factors and clinical outcomes of gliomas

The relationship between MMAC/PTEN, DMBT1 and the progression and prognosis of glioma, and the association between the alterations of MMAC/PTEN, p53, p16, and Rb and some cancer risk factors, such as smoking, exposure to radiation, family cancer history, and previous cancer history, were assessed in 4 studies. ^ By allelic deletion analysis, MMAC/PTEN locus was shown to be frequently lost in glioblastomas multiforme (GM) but maintained in most lower-grade astrocytic tumors. DMBT1 locus, however, was frequently lost in all grades of gliomas examined. The potential biological significance of these two regions was frontier assessed by examining microcell-hybrids that contained various fragments of 10q. Somatic cell hybrid clones that retained the MMAC/PTEN locus have less transformed phenotypes, exhibiting an inability to grow in soft agarose. On the other hand, the presence or absence of DAMT1 did not correlate with any in vitro phenotype assessed in our model system. Further, Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, adjusted for age at surgery and histologic grades (GM, and non-GM), showed that without LOH at the MMAC/PTEN locus had a significantly better prognosis than did patients with LOH at MMAC/ PTEN (hazard ratio = 0.5; 95% Cl = 0.28–0.89; P = 0.018). Furthermore, status of LOH at MMAC/PTEN was found to be significantly associated with age, while that for DMBT1 was not. These results suggest that the DMBT1 may be involved early in the oncogenesis of gliomas, while alterations in the MMAC /PTEN may be a late event in the oncogenesis related with progression of gliomas and provide a significant prognostic marker for patient survival. ^ The associations between 4 cancer risk factors and 4 tumor suppressor genes were assessed. The expression of p16 was observed to be associated with current smoking (adjusted OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.02–3.6) but not the former smoking (adjusted OR = 1.1, 95% Cl = 0.5–3.5). The expression of p53 was found to be associated with the family cancer history (OR = 3.5, 95% Cl = 1.07–11 for patients with first-degree family history of cancer). MMAC/ PTEN was associated with the histologic grade (OR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.2–6.6) and age (P = 0.035). Also, the OR for LOH around MMAC/PTEN in patients with a family history of cancer was elevated (OR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.8–4.6 for patients with first-degree family history of cancer). The associations between exposure and the alterations of tumor suppressor genes, between smoking and p16, between family history of cancer and p53 and MMAC/PTEN, provide suggestive evidences that those exposures are related to the development of gliomas. ^

A longitudinal comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factors among children and adolescents in the U.S. and Japan: Project HeartBeat!

Blood cholesterol and blood pressure development in childhood and adolescence have important impact on the future adult level of cholesterol and blood pressure, and on increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. The U.S. has higher mortality rates of coronary heart diseases than Japan. A longitudinal comparison in children of risk factor development in the two countries provides more understanding about the causes of cardiovascular disease and its prevention. Such comparisons have not been reported in the past. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 506 non-Hispanic white, 136 black and 369 Japanese children participated in the study in the U.S. and Japan from 1991 to 1995. A synthetic cohort of ages 8 to 18 years was composed by three cohorts with starting ages at 8, 11, and 14. A multilevel regression model was used for data analysis. ^ The study revealed that the Japanese children had significantly higher slopes of mean total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels than the U.S. children after adjusting for age and sex. The mean TC level of Japanese children was not significantly different from white and black children. The mean HDL level of Japanese children was significantly higher than white and black children after adjusting for age and sex. The ratio of HDL/TC in Japanese children was significantly higher than in U.S. whites, but not significantly different from the black children. The Japanese group had significantly lower mean diastolic blood pressure phase IV (DBP4) and phase V (DBP5) than the two U.S. groups. The Japanese group also showed significantly higher slopes in systolic blood pressure, DBP5 and DBP4 during the study period than both U.S. groups. The differences were independent from height and body mass index. ^ The study provided the first longitudinal comparison of blood cholesterol and blood pressure between the U.S. and Japanese children and adolescents. It revealed the dynamic process of these factors in the three ethnic groups. ^

Neural tube defects in Mexican-Americans living on the US-Mexico border: The effects of folic acid and dietary folate

Neural tube defects (NTDs) are malformations of the developing brain and spinal cord; the most common are anencephaly and spina bifida. Evidence from many populations suggests that 50% of NTDs can be prevented through daily consumption of folic acid. A recent study has reported that folic acid may not protect populations of Mexican descent. This finding has serious implications for women living along the US-Mexico border. Not only is risk high in these Mexican American women compared with other US women; they also differ markedly in supplemental folic acid and dietary folate consumption, and in NTD-related risks (e.g., obesity, diabetes). This case-control study investigated whether folic acid supplements and dietary folate reduces NTDs in Mexican Americans. Cases included liveborn, stillborn, electively and spontaneously aborted NTD-affected fetuses and infants occurring in the 14-county Texas-Mexico border. Controls were randomly selected from unaffected live births, frequency matched to cases by hospital and year. An in-person interview of 110 case and 113 control mothers solicited data on folic acid supplements, dietary folate, and other covariates. Consumption of folic acid-containing vitamins before conception was only 5% for both case and control women. Taking vitamins the trimester before conception had no apparent effect, after adjusting for covariates [odds ratio (OR) = 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.3–3.4]. Combining folate from vitamins and diet showed a 20% risk reduction for women consuming at least 400 μg of folate daily [OR = 0.8, 95% CI = 0.5–1.5]; however, this estimate is statistically indistinguishable from the null. Although consistent with an inherent ineffectiveness of supplemental folic acid, that so few women consumed multivitamins during the critical time severely limited the assessment of folic acid in this population. A reduced folate response in Mexican descent women may be due to a genetic heterogeneity for metabolizing folate. Alternatively, folate intakes may be insufficient to overcome other underlying risk factors. In conclusion, determining whether folic acid reduces NTD risk in Mexican American women requires further study in populations with higher folic acid exposures. Meanwhile, we should pursue all recommended prevention strategies to reduce risk, including motivating Mexican American women of childbearing age to take folic acid routinely. ^