Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Modelling the medieval economy: money, prices and income in England, 1263-1520

This chapter presents a simple econometric model of the medieval English economy, focusing on the relationship between money, prices and incomes. The model is estimated using annual data for the period 1263-1520 obtained from various sources. The start date is determined by the availability of continuous runs of annual data, while the finishing date immediately precedes the take-off of Tudor price inflation. Accounts from the ecclesiastical and monastic estates have survived in great numbers for this period, thereby ensuring that crop yields can be estimated from a regionally representative set of estates.

Optimising mirid control on cocoa farms through complementary monitoring systems

Mirids (Sahlbergella singularis and Distantiella theobroma) are the most important insect pests affecting cocoa production across West Africa. Understanding the population dynamics of mirids is key to their management, however, the current recommended hand-height assessment method is labour intensive. The objective of the study was to compare recently developed mirid sex pheromone trapping and visual hand-height assessment methods as monitoring tools on cocoa farms and to consider implications for a decision support system. Ten farms from the Eastern and Ashanti regions of Ghana were used for the study. Mirid numbers and damage were assessed fortnightly on twenty trees per farm, using both methods, from January 2012 to April 2013. The mirid population increased rapidly in June, reached a peak in September and began to decline in October. There was a significant linear relationship between numbers of mirids sampled to hand-height and mirid damage. High numbers of male mirids were recorded in pheromone traps between January and April 2012 after which there was a gradual decline. There was a significant inverse relationship between numbers of trapped adult mirids and mirids sampled to hand-height (predominantly nymphs). Higher temperatures and lower relative humidities in the first half of the year were associated with fewer mirids at hand-height but larger numbers of adult males were caught in pheromone traps. The study showed that relying solely on one method is not sufficient to provide accurate information on mirid population dynamics and a combination of the two methods is necessary.

CDM accelerating cosmology as an alternative to Lambda CDM model

A new accelerating cosmology driven only by baryons plus cold dark matter (CDM) is proposed in the framework of general relativity. In this scenario the present accelerating stage of the Universe is powered by the negative pressure describing the gravitationally-induced particle production of cold dark matter particles. This kind of scenario has only one free parameter and the differential equation governing the evolution of the scale factor is exactly the same of the Lambda CDM model. For a spatially flat Universe, as predicted by inflation (Omega(dm) + Omega(baryon) = 1), it is found that the effectively observed matter density parameter is Omega(meff) = 1 - alpha, where alpha is the constant parameter specifying the CDM particle creation rate. The supernovae test based on the Union data (2008) requires alpha similar to 0.71 so that Omega(meff) similar to 0.29 as independently derived from weak gravitational lensing, the large scale structure and other complementary observations.

Phylogenetic analysis of a near-full-length sequence of an erythrovirus genotype 3 strain isolated in Brazil

Human parvovirus B19 is the only member of the genus Erythrovirus that causes human disease. Recent findings of several strains with considerable sequence divergence from B19 have suggested a new classification for parvovirus genotypes as 1 (B19), 2 (A-6 and LaLi) and 3 (V9). In their overall DNA sequence, the three genotypes differ by similar to 10%. Here, we report the isolation of a genotype-3-related strain named BR543 during a prospective study conducted in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of the nearly full-length genome sequence of BR543 indicates that this B19 variant sequence clusters with Gh2768, a strain from Ghana belonging to subtype 3b, and showed mostly synonymous substitutions.

Predictions from an anisotropic inflationary era

This paper investigates the predictions of an inflationary phase starting from a homogeneous and anisotropic universe of the Bianchi I type. After discussing the evolution of the background spacetime, focusing on the number of e-folds and the isotropization, we solve the perturbation equations and predict the power spectra of the curvature perturbations and gravity waves at the end of inflation. The main features of the early anisotropic phase is (1) a dependence of the spectra on the direction of the modes, (2) a coupling between curvature perturbations and gravity waves and (3) the fact that the two gravity wave polarizations do not share the same spectrum on large scales. All these effects are significant only on large scales and die out on small scales where isotropy is recovered. They depend on a characteristic scale that can, but a priori must not, be tuned to some observable scale. To fix the initial conditions, we propose a procedure that generalizes the one standardly used in inflation but that takes into account the fact that the WKB regime is violated at early times when the shear dominates. We stress that there exist modes that do not satisfy the WKB condition during the shear-dominated regime and for which the amplitude at the end of inflation depends on unknown initial conditions. On such scales, inflation loses its predictability. This study paves the way for the determination of the cosmological signature of a primordial shear, whatever the Bianchi I spacetime. It thus stresses the importance of the WKB regime to draw inflationary predictions and demonstrates that, when the number of e-folds is large enough, the predictions converge toward those of inflation in a Friedmann-Lemaitre spacetime but that they are less robust in the case of an inflationary era with a small number of e-folds.

Relics of eclogite facies assemblages in the Ceara Central Domain, NW Borborema Province, NE Brazil: Implications for the assembly of West Gondwana

The Borborema Province, in the NE of Brazil, is a rather complex piece in the Brazil-Africa puzzle as it represents the junction of the Dahomeyide/Pharusian, Central African, Aracuai and Brasilia fold belts located between the West-African/Sao Luis, Congo/Sao Francisco and Amazonas craton. The correlation between the Dahomeyides from W-Africa (Ghana, Benin, Togo, and Mali) and the Borborema Province involves the Medio Coreau and Central Ceara domains. The inferred continuation of the main oceanic suture zone exposed in the Dahomeyides of W Africa is buried beneath the Phanerozoic Parnaiba Basin in Brazil (northwest of the Medio Coreau domain) where some high density gravity anomalies may represent hidden remnants of an oceanic suture. In addition to this major suture a narrow, nearly continuous strip composed of mainly mafic pods containing relics of eclogite-facies assemblages associated with partially migmatized granulite-facies metapelitic gneisses has been found further east in the NW Borborema Province. These high pressure mafic rocks, interpreted as retrograded eclogites, are located between the Transbrasiliano Lineament and the Santa Quiteria continental arc and comprise primitive to evolved arc-related rocks with either arc- or MORB-type imprints that can indicate either deep subduction of oceanic lithosphere or roots of continental and oceanic magmatic arcs. Average peak P-T conditions under eclogite-facies metamorphism (T=770 degrees C and P = 17.3 kbar) were estimated using garnet-clinopyroxene thermometry and Jd content in clinopyroxene. Transition to granulite-facies conditions, as well as later widespread re-equilibration under amphibolite facies, were registered both in the basic and the metapelitic rocks and suggest a clockwise P-T path characterized by an increase in temperature followed by strong decompression. A phenomenon possibly related to the exhumation of a highly thickened crust associated with the suturing of the Medio Coreau and Central Ceara domains, two distinct crustal blocks separated by the Transbrasiliano Lineament. (C) 2009 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

Economic growth in Sweden, 2000-2010 : The dot-com bubble and the financial crisis

    Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. The total output is the quantity of goods or servicesproduced in a given time period within a country. Sweden was affected by two crises during the period 2000-2010: a dot-com bubble and a financial crisis. How did these two crises affect the economic growth?     The changes of domestic output can be separated into four parts: changes in intermediate demand, final domestic demand, export demand and import substitution. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the economic growth during the period 2000-2010, with focus on the dot-com bubble in the beginning of the period 2000-2005, and the financial crisis at the end of the period 2005-2010. The methodology to be used is the structural decomposition method.     This investigation shows that the main contributions to the Swedish total domestic output increase in both the period 2000-2005 and the period 2005-2010 were the effect of domestic demand. In the period 2005-2010, financial crisis weakened the effect of export. The output of the primary sector went from a negative change into a positive, explained mainly by strong export expansion. In the secondary sector, export had most effect in the period 2000-2005. Nevertheless, domestic demand and import ratio had more effect during the financial crisis period. Lastly, in the tertiary sector, domestic demand can mainly explain the output growth in the whole period 2000-2010.

Determinants and effects of central bank independence reforms

This thesis consists of four empirically oriented papers on central bank independence (CBI) reforms.    Paper [1] is an investigation of why politicians around the world have chosen to give up power to independent central banks, thereby reducing their ability to control the economy. A new data-set, including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during 1980-2005, was collected. Politicians in non-OECD countries were more likely to delegate power to independent central banks if their country had been characterized by high variability in inflation and if they faced a high probability of being replaced. No such effects were found for OECD countries.    Paper [2], using a difference-in-difference approach, studies whether CBI reform matters for inflation performance. The analysis is based on a dataset including the possible occurrence of CBI-reforms in 132 countries during the period of 1980-2005. CBI reform is found to have contributed to bringing down inflation in high-inflation countries, but it seems unrelated to inflation performance in low-inflation countries.    Paper [3] investigates whether CBI-reforms are important in reducing inflation and maintaining price stability, using a random-effects random-coefficients model to account for heterogeneity in the effects of CBI-reforms on inflation. CBI-reforms are found to have reduced inflation on average by 3.31 percent, but the effect is only present when countries with historically high inflation rates are included in the sample. Countries with more modest inflation rates have achieved low inflation without institutional reforms that grant central banks more independence, thus undermining the time-inconsistency theory case for CBI. There is furthermore no evidence that CBI-reforms have contributed to lower inflation variability    Paper [4] studies the relationship between CBI and a suggested trade-off between price variability and output variability using data on CBI-levels, and data the on implementation dates of CBI-reforms. The results question the existence of such a trade-off, but indicate that there may still be potential gains in stabilization policy from CBI-reforms.

The Family Novel in the Emerging Nation-State: A Comparative Study of Ba Jin’s Jia and Lev Tolstoy’s Anna Karenina

The theme of family in literature and in popular discourse occurs at times when the family as an institution is under attack. Attacks against the family coupled with defence of the family are viewed as the barometer of people’s satisfaction with the society in which they live. This outpouring of emotion, whether it is in defence of or attacking the family, is the result of the family’s position on the bridge between nature and society – a fortunate (or a detrimental) link between an individual and the units that make up a society. Across the United States and much of the western world, the battle for gay marriage and inclusive civil unions has revealed the fissures in our collective moral view of the family. The conservative concern about the absence of ‘family values’ is magnified by our situation in a world of flux. Inflation, war, terrorist threats, and the depletion of natural resources are but a few examples. When so much is unknown, how do we position ourselves? What anchors us to the past, gives us comfort in the present, and supports us in the future if not the family? Alternatively, what coddles us more in the past, shackles us more to the present, and lulls us more into a fixed conception of the future than the family? My research is not a sociological survey into the family nor does it stake any claims to understanding the present state of the family in society. The study seeks, however, to shed light on the rhetorical uses of the family by analysing two novels that are inextricably concerned with the theory of the family in times of heightened social change. In particular, my research focuses upon the social role and political meaning of the family in Anna Karenina and Jia.