A novel clinical scoring system for outcome prediction in dogs with acute kidney injury managed by hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND No reliable tool to predict outcome of acute kidney injury (AKI) exists. HYPOTHESIS A statistically derived scoring system can accurately predict outcome in dogs with AKI managed with hemodialysis. ANIMALS One hundred and eighty-two client-owned dogs with AKI. METHODS Logistic regression analyses were performed initially on clinical variables available on the 1st day of hospitalization for relevance to outcome. Variables with P< or = .1 were considered for further analyses. Continuous variables outside the reference range were divided into quartiles to yield quartile-specific odds ratios (ORs) for survival. Models were developed by incorporating weighting factors assigned to each quartile based on the OR, using either the integer value of the OR (Model A) or the exact OR (Models B or C, when the etiology was known). A predictive score for each model was calculated for each dog by summing all weighting factors. In Model D, actual values for continuous variables were used in a logistic regression model. Receiver-operating curve analyses were performed to assess sensitivities, specificities, and optimal cutoff points for all models. RESULTS Higher scores were associated with decreased probability of survival (P < .001). Models A, B, C, and D correctly classified outcomes in 81, 83, 87, and 76% of cases, respectively, and optimal sensitivities/specificities were 77/85, 81/85, 83/90 and 92/61%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The models allowed outcome prediction that corresponded with actual outcome in our cohort. However, each model should be validated further in independent cohorts. The models may also be useful to assess AKI severity.

Tools & Techniques - Statistics: Propensity score techniques.

Propensity score (PS) techniques are useful if the number of potential confounding pretreatment variables is large and the number of analysed outcome events is rather small so that conventional multivariable adjustment is hardly feasible. Only pretreatment characteristics should be chosen to derive PS, and only when they are probably associated with outcome. A careful visual inspection of PS will help to identify areas of no or minimal overlap, which suggests residual confounding, and trimming of the data according to the distribution of PS will help to minimise residual confounding. Standardised differences in pretreatment characteristics provide a useful check of the success of the PS technique employed. As with conventional multivariable adjustment, PS techniques cannot account for confounding variables that are not or are only imperfectly measured, and no PS technique is a substitute for an adequately designed randomised trial.

Dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation and the value of the Hachinski ischemic score.

AIM To assess the prevalence of vascular dementia, mixed dementia and Alzheimer's disease in patients with atrial fibrillation, and to evaluate the accuracy of the Hachinski ischemic score for these subtypes of dementia. METHODS A nested case-control study was carried out. A total of 103 of 784 consecutive patients evaluated for cognitive status at the Ambulatory Geriatric Clinic had a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. Controls without atrial fibrillation were randomly selected from the remaining 681 patients using a 1:2 matching for sex, age and education. RESULTS The prevalence of vascular dementia was twofold in patients with atrial fibrillation compared with controls (21.4% vs 10.7%, P = 0.024). Alzheimer's disease was also more frequent in the group with atrial fibrillation (12.6% vs 7.3%, P = 0.046), whereas mixed dementia had a similar distribution. The Hachinski ischemic score poorly discriminated between dementia subtypes, with misclassification rates between 46% (95% CI 28-66) and 70% (95% CI 55-83). In patients with atrial fibrillation, these rates ranged from 55% (95% CI 32-77) to 69% (95% CI 39-91%). In patients in whom the diagnosis of dementia was excluded, the Hachinski ischemic score suggested the presence of vascular dementia in 11% and mixed dementia in 30%. CONCLUSIONS Vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease, but not mixed dementia, are more prevalent in patients with atrial fibrillation. The discriminative accuracy of the Hachinski ischemic score for dementia subtypes in atrial fibrillation is poor, with a significant proportion of misclassifications.

Owner-reported coughing and nasal discharge are associated with clinical findings, arterial oxygen tension, mucus score and bronchoprovocation in horses with recurrent airway obstruction in a field setting.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY In clinical practice, veterinarians often depend on owner-reported signs to assess the clinical course of horses with recurrent airway obstruction (RAO). OBJECTIVES To test whether owner-reported information on frequency of coughing and observation of nasal discharge are associated with clinical, cytological and bronchoprovocation findings in RAO-affected horses in nonstandardised field conditions. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional study comparing healthy and RAO-affected horses. METHODS Twenty-eight healthy and 34 RAO-affected Swiss Warmblood horses were grouped according to owner-reported 'coughing frequency' and 'nasal discharge'. Differences between these groups were examined using clinical examination, blood gas analyses, endoscopic mucus scores, cytology of tracheobronchial secretion and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, and airway hyperresponsiveness determined by plethysmography with histamine bronchoprovocation. RESULTS Frequently coughing horses differed most markedly from healthy control animals. Histamine bronchoprovocation-derived parameters were significantly different between the healthy control group and all RAO groups. Mucus grades and tracheobronchial secretion and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid neutrophil percentages had particularly high variability, with overlap of findings between groups. Owner satisfaction with the clinical status of the horse was high, even in severely affected horses. CONCLUSIONS Owner-reported coughing and nasal discharge are associated with specific clinical and diagnostic findings in RAO-affected horses in field settings. While airway hyperresponsiveness differentiates best between healthy horses and asymptomatic RAO-affected horses, the absence of coughing and nasal discharge does not rule out significant neutrophilic airway inflammation. Owner satisfaction with the clinical status of the horse was uninformative.

Saddlepoint approximations to sensitivities of tail probabilities of random sums and comparisons with Monte Carlo estimators

This article proposes computing sensitivities of upper tail probabilities of random sums by the saddlepoint approximation. The considered sensitivity is the derivative of the upper tail probability with respect to the parameter of the summation index distribution. Random sums with Poisson or Geometric distributed summation indices and Gamma or Weibull distributed summands are considered. The score method with importance sampling is considered as an alternative approximation. Numerical studies show that the saddlepoint approximation and the method of score with importance sampling are very accurate. But the saddlepoint approximation is substantially faster than the score method with importance sampling. Thus, the suggested saddlepoint approximation can be conveniently used in various scientific problems.

Drug-eluting stents vs. bare metal stents in patients with cardiogenic shock: a comparison by propensity score analysis.

BACKGROUND In patients with cardiogenic shock, data on the comparative safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents (DESs) vs. bare metal stents (BMSs) are lacking. We sought to assess the performance of DESs compared with BMSs among patients with cardiogenic shock undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS Out of 236 patients with acute coronary syndromes complicated by cardiogenic shock, 203 were included in the final analysis. The primary endpoint included death, and the secondary endpoint of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) included the composite of death, myocardial infarction, any repeat revascularization and stroke. Patients were followed for a minimum of 30 days and up to 4 years. As stent assignment was not random, we performed a propensity score analysis to minimize potential bias. RESULTS Among patients treated with DESs, there was a lower risk of the primary and secondary endpoints compared with BMSs at 30 days (29 vs. 56%, P < 0.001; 34 vs. 58%, P = 0.001, respectively) and during long-term follow-up [hazard ratio 0.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.29-0.65, P < 0.001; hazard ratio 0.49, 95% CI 0.34-0.71, P < 0.001, respectively]. After propensity score adjustment, all-cause mortality was reduced among patients treated with DESs compared with BMSs both at 30 days [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.11-0.62; P = 0.002] and during long-term follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.22-0.72; P = 0.002). The rate of MACCE was lower among patients treated with DESs compared with those treated with BMSs at 30 days (adjusted OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.19-0.95; P = 0.036). The difference in MACCEs between devices approached significance during long-term follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.34-1.01; P = 0.052). CONCLUSION DESs appear to be associated with improved clinical outcomes, including a reduction in all-cause mortality compared with BMSs among patients undergoing PCI for cardiogenic shock, possibly because of a pacification of the infarct-related artery by anti-inflammatory drug. The results of this observational study require confirmation in an appropriately powered randomized trial.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.

Evolving biomarkers improve prediction of long-term mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the BIO-VILCAD score.

OBJECTIVE Algorithms to predict the future long-term risk of patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD) are rare. The VIenna and Ludwigshafen CAD (VILCAD) risk score was one of the first scores specifically tailored for this clinically important patient population. The aim of this study was to refine risk prediction in stable CAD creating a new prediction model encompassing various pathophysiological pathways. Therefore, we assessed the predictive power of 135 novel biomarkers for long-term mortality in patients with stable CAD. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS We included 1275 patients with stable CAD from the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study with a median follow-up of 9.8 years to investigate whether the predictive power of the VILCAD score could be improved by the addition of novel biomarkers. Additional biomarkers were selected in a bootstrapping procedure based on Cox regression to determine the most informative predictors of mortality. RESULTS The final multivariable model encompassed nine clinical and biochemical markers: age, sex, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), heart rate, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, renin, 25OH-vitamin D3 and haemoglobin A1c. The extended VILCAD biomarker score achieved a significantly improved C-statistic (0.78 vs. 0.73; P = 0.035) and net reclassification index (14.9%; P < 0.001) compared to the original VILCAD score. Omitting LVEF, which might not be readily measureable in clinical practice, slightly reduced the accuracy of the new BIO-VILCAD score but still significantly improved risk classification (net reclassification improvement 12.5%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION The VILCAD biomarker score based on routine parameters complemented by novel biomarkers outperforms previous risk algorithms and allows more accurate classification of patients with stable CAD, enabling physicians to choose more personalized treatment regimens for their patients.

Pretreatment Tables Predicting Pathologic Stage of Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND Pretreatment tables for the prediction of pathologic stage have been published and validated for localized prostate cancer (PCa). No such tables are available for locally advanced (cT3a) PCa. OBJECTIVE To construct tables predicting pathologic outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) for patients with cT3a PCa with the aim to help guide treatment decisions in clinical practice. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including 759 consecutive patients with cT3a PCa treated with RP between 1987 and 2010. INTERVENTION Retropubic RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Patients were divided into pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and biopsy Gleason score (GS) subgroups. These parameters were used to construct tables predicting pathologic outcome and the presence of positive lymph nodes (LNs) after RP for cT3a PCa using ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS In the model predicting pathologic outcome, the main effects of biopsy GS and pretreatment PSA were significant. A higher GS and/or higher PSA level was associated with a more unfavorable pathologic outcome. The validation procedure, using a repeated split-sample method, showed good predictive ability. Regression analysis also showed an increasing probability of positive LNs with increasing PSA levels and/or higher GS. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS These novel tables predict pathologic stage after RP for patients with cT3a PCa based on pretreatment PSA level and biopsy GS. They can be used to guide decision making in men with locally advanced PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY Our study might provide physicians with a useful tool to predict pathologic stage in locally advanced prostate cancer that might help select patients who may need multimodal treatment.

Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.