931 resultados para Future value prediction
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Nowadays, the cooperative intelligent transport systems are part of a largest system. Transportations are modal operations integrated in logistics and, logistics is the main process of the supply chain management. The supply chain strategic management as a simultaneous local and global value chain is a collaborative/cooperative organization of stakeholders, many times in co-opetition, to perform a service to the customers respecting the time, place, price and quality levels. The transportation, like other logistics operations must add value, which is achieved in this case through compression lead times and order fulfillments. The complex supplier's network and the distribution channels must be efficient and the integral visibility (monitoring and tracing) of supply chain is a significant source of competitive advantage. Nowadays, the competition is not discussed between companies but among supply chains. This paper aims to evidence the current and emerging manufacturing and logistics system challenges as a new field of opportunities for the automation and control systems research community. Furthermore, the paper forecasts the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technologies integrated into an information and communication technologies (ICT) framework based on distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) supported by a multi-agent system (MAS), as the most value advantage of supply chain management (SCM) in a cooperative intelligent logistics systems. Logistical platforms (production or distribution) as nodes of added value of supplying and distribution networks are proposed as critical points of the visibility of the inventory, where these technological needs are more evident.
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Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).
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The relative contribution of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) to the price discovery of their common true value has been empirically studied using daily data with inconclusive results. In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run price dynamics between EUAs and CERs future contracts using intraday data. We report a bidirectional feedback causality relationship both in the short-run and in the long-run, with the EUA's market being the leader.
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Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular. Área de especialização: Intervenção Cardiovascular.
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Introdução – Avaliar a força de preensão mostrou ser de primordial importância pela sua relação com a capacidade funcional dos indivíduos, permitindo determinar níveis de risco para incapacidade futura e, assim, estabelecer estratégias de prevenção. Grande parte dos estudos utiliza o dinamómetro hidráulico JAMAR que fornece o valor da força isométrica obtida durante a execução do movimento de preensão palmar. Contudo, existem outros dinamómetros disponíveis, como é o caso do dinamómetro portátil computorizado E‑Link (Biometrics) que fornece o valor da força máxima (peak force), para além de outras variáveis, como a taxa de fadiga. Não existem, contudo, estudos que nos permitam aceitar e comparar ou não os valores obtidos com os dois equipamentos e porventura utilizá‑los indistintamente. Objetivos – Avaliar a concordância entre as medições da força de preensão (força máxima ou peak force em Kg) obtida a partir de dois equipamentos diferentes (dinamómetros portáteis): um computorizado (E‑Link, Biometrics) e outro hidráulico (JAMAR). Metodologia – Foram avaliados 29 indivíduos (13H; 16M; 22±7 anos; 23,2±3,3 kg/m2) em 2 dias consecutivos, na mesma altura do dia. A posição de teste escolhida foi a recomendada pela Associação Americana de Terapeutas Ocupacionais e foi escolhido o melhor resultado de entre 3 tentativas para a mão dominante. Realizou‑se uma análise correlacional entre os valores obtidos na variável analisada em cada equipamento (coeficiente de Spearman) e uma análise de Bland & Altman para verificar a concordância entre as duas medições. Resultados – O coeficiente de correlação entre as duas medições foi elevado (rS= 0,956; p<0,001) e, pela análise de Bland & Altman, os valores obtidos encontram‑se todos dentro do intervalo da média±2SD. Conclusões – As duas medições mostraram ser concordantes, revelando que os dinamómetros testados podem ser comparáveis ou utilizados indistintamente em diferentes estudos e populações. ABSTRACT: Introduction – Assess grip strength has proved to be of vital importance because of its relationship with functional capacity of individuals, in order to determine levels of risk for future disability and thereby establish prevention strategies. Most studies use the JAMAR Hydraulic dynamometer that provides the value of isometric force obtained during the performance of grip movement. However, there are other dynamometers available, such as portable computerized dynamometer E‑Link (Biometrics), which provides the value of maximum force (peak force) in addition to other variables as the rate of fatigue. There are no studies that allow us to accept or not and compare values obtained with both devices and perhaps use them interchangeably. Purpose – To evaluate the agreement between the measurements of grip strength (peak force or maximum force in kg) obtained from two different devices (portable dynamometers): a computerized (E‑Link, Biometrics) and a hydraulic (JAMAR). Methodology – 29 subjects (13H, 16M, 22 ± 7 years, 23.2 ± 3.3 kg/m2) were assessed on two consecutive days at the same time of day. The test position chosen was recommended by the American Association of Occupational Therapists and was considered the best result from three attempts for the dominant hand. A correlation was studied between values obtained in the variable analyzed in each equipment (Spearman coefficient) and Bland‑Altman analysis to assess the agreement between the two measurements. Results – The correlation coefficient between the two measurements was high (rs = 0,956, p <0,001) and Bland & Altman analysis of the values obtained are all within the range of mean±2SD. Conclusions – The two measurements were shown to be concordant, revealing that the tested dynamometers can be comparable or used interchangeably in different studies and populations.
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The main purpose of this study was to examine the applicability of geostatistical modeling to obtain valuable information for assessing the environmental impact of sewage outfall discharges. The data set used was obtained in a monitoring campaign to S. Jacinto outfall, located off the Portuguese west coast near Aveiro region, using an AUV. The Matheron’s classical estimator was used the compute the experimental semivariogram which was fitted to three theoretical models: spherical, exponential and gaussian. The cross-validation procedure suggested the best semivariogram model and ordinary kriging was used to obtain the predictions of salinity at unknown locations. The generated map shows clearly the plume dispersion in the studied area, indicating that the effluent does not reach the near by beaches. Our study suggests that an optimal design for the AUV sampling trajectory from a geostatistical prediction point of view, can help to compute more precise predictions and hence to quantify more accurately dilution. Moreover, since accurate measurements of plume’s dilution are rare, these studies might be very helpful in the future for validation of dispersion models.
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We study the implications for two-Higgs-doublet models of the recent announcement at the LHC giving a tantalizing hint for a Higgs boson of mass 125 GeV decaying into two photons. We require that the experimental result be within a factor of 2 of the theoretical standard model prediction, and analyze the type I and type II models as well as the lepton-specific and flipped models, subject to this requirement. It is assumed that there is no new physics other than two Higgs doublets. In all of the models, we display the allowed region of parameter space taking the recent LHC announcement at face value, and we analyze the W+W-, ZZ, (b) over barb, and tau(+)tau(-) expectations in these allowed regions. Throughout the entire range of parameter space allowed by the gamma gamma constraint, the numbers of events for Higgs decays into WW, ZZ, and b (b) over bar are not changed from the standard model by more than a factor of 2. In contrast, in the lepton-specific model, decays to tau(+)tau(-) are very sensitive across the entire gamma gamma-allowed region.
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O VAR (Value at Risk) ,valor em risco, é a perda máxima provável de uma carteira para um nível de confiança determinado, num horizonte temporal especificado.
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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Mestre Agostinho Sousa Pinto
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais
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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto (ISCAP) para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Docente orientador: Mestre Domingos da Silva Duarte
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Dissertação para a obtenção do grau de mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre António Costa Reis
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais
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This paper proposes a novel framework for modelling the Value for the Customer, the so-called the Conceptual Model for Decomposing Value for the Customer (CMDVC). This conceptual model is first validated through an exploratory case study where the authors validate both the proposed constructs of the model and their relations. In a second step the authors propose a mathematical formulation for the CMDVC as well as a computational method. This has enabled the final quantitative discussion of how the CMDVC can be applied and used in the enterprise environment, and the final validation by the people in the enterprise. Along this research, we were able to confirm that the results of this novel quantitative approach to model the Value for the Customer is consistent with the company's empirical experience. The paper further discusses the merits and limitations of this approach, proposing that the model is likely to bring value to support not only the contract preparation at an Ex-Ante Negotiation Phase, as demonstrated, but also along the actual negotiation process, as finally confirmed by an enterprise testimonial.
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Value has been defined in different theoretical contexts as need, desire, interest, standard /criteria, beliefs, attitudes, and preferences. The creation of value is key to any business, and any business activity is about exchanging some tangible and/or intangible good or service and having its value accepted and rewarded by customers or clients, either inside the enterprise or collaborative network or outside. “Perhaps surprising then is that firms often do not know how to define value, or how to measure it” (Anderson and Narus, 1998 cited by [1]). Woodruff echoed that we need “richer customer value theory” for providing an “important tool for locking onto the critical things that managers need to know”. In addition, he emphasized, “we need customer value theory that delves deeply into customer’s world of product use in their situations” [2]. In this sense, we proposed and validated a novel “Conceptual Model for Decomposing the Value for the Customer”. To this end, we were aware that time has a direct impact on customer perceived value, and the suppliers’ and customers’ perceptions change from the pre-purchase to the post-purchase phases, causing some uncertainty and doubts.We wanted to break down value into all its components, as well as every built and used assets (both endogenous and/or exogenous perspectives). This component analysis was then transposed into a mathematical formulation using the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), so that the uncertainty and vagueness of value perceptions could be embedded in this model that relates used and built assets in the tangible and intangible deliverable exchange among the involved parties, with their actual value perceptions.