On the closed-form approximation of short-time random strike options

In this paper we propose a general technique to develop first and second order closed-form approximation formulas for short-time options withrandom strikes. Our method is based on Malliavin calculus techniques andallows us to obtain simple closed-form approximation formulas dependingon the derivative operator. The numerical analysis shows that these formulas are extremely accurate and improve some previous approaches ontwo-assets and three-assets spread options as Kirk's formula or the decomposition mehod presented in Alòs, Eydeland and Laurence (2011).

Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, which relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information delays the attack on the currency past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals the peg, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations.

Abcès du sein: privilégier la ponction-aspiration échoguidée [Ultrasonography-guided drainage should be considered as the first-line approach for breast abscesses treatment].

The abscesses of the breast are puerperal or non puerperal. The Staphylococcus aureus is the most common germ. The diagnosis is based on clinical criterias and confirmed by the ultrasonography. The percutaneous ultrasonography-guided drainage must be proposed in first intent to treat. Surgical treatment is still valid with a relapsing or chronic abscess, or after the non operative processes have failed.

First records of Collembola (Ellipura) from the State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil

This paper presents the first records of the Collembola fauna in four localities of State of Paraíba, Northeastern Brazil. These records represent the first list of species of Collembola for the State of Paraíba. The research adds new records for Brazil of six genera and one species. Furthermore, thirteen undescribed species are presented.

Improving Transition Outcomes: Prototype First Year Highlights

Highlights from the community demonstration prototypes first year.

Sclérose en plaques: au-delà des traitements de première ligne [Multiple sclerosis: beyong first line therapies].

We are currently experiencing a key period in the management of patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. The application of new criteria allows early diagnosis, thus at a stage when the available immune treatments are the most likely to show a good efficacy. The therapeutic offer is expanding but its complexity too. It is thus important, for a given patient, to assess as precisely as possible the degree of severity of his/her disease, in order to give the drug with the optimal risk/benefit ratio.

High prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors in first-degree relatives of individuals with familial premature coronary artery disease--the GENECARD project.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity and smoking are highly prevalent among patients with familial premature coronary artery disease (FP-CAD). Whether these risk factors equally affect other family members remains unknown. METHODS: We examined 222 FP-CAD patients, 158 unaffected sibs, 197 offspring and 94 spouses in 108 FP-CAD families (> or = 2 sibs having survived CAD diagnosed before age 51 (M)/56 (F)), and compared them to population controls. RESULTS: Unaffected sibs had a higher prevalence of hypertension (49% versus 24%, p<0.001), hypercholesterolemia (47% versus 34%, p=0.002), abdominal obesity (35% versus 24%, p=0.006) and smoking (39% versus 24%, p=0.001) than population controls. Offspring had a higher prevalence of hypertension (females), hypercholesterolemia and abdominal obesity than population controls. No difference was observed between spouses and controls. Compared to unaffected sibs, FP-CAD affected sibs had a similar risk factor profile, except for smoking, which was more prevalent (76% versus 39%, p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension, obesity and hypercholesterolemia are highly prevalent among first-degree relatives, but not spouses, of patients with FP-CAD. These persons deserve special medical attention due to their familial/genetic susceptibility to atherogenic metabolic abnormalities. In these families, smoking may be the trigger for FP-CAD.

Improving social measurements: The experience of the ESS first rounds in Spain

With the two aims of monitoring social change and improving social measurement, the European Social Survey is now closing its third round. This paper shows how the accumulated experience of the two first rounds has been used to validate the questionnaire, better adapt the sampling design to the country characteristics and efficiently commit fieldwork in Spain. For example, the dynamic character of the population nowadays makes necessary to estimated design effects at each round from the data of the previous round. The paper also demonstrates how, starting with a response rate of 52% at first round, a 66% response rate is achieved at the third round thanks to an extensive quality control conducted by the polling agency and the ESS national team and based on a detailed analysis of the non-response cases and the incidences reported by the interviewed in the contact form.

Sitobion graminis Takahashi, 1950 (Hemiptera, Aphididae): first record in Brazil, biological and morphometric parameters

The species Sitobion graminis Takahashi, 1950 (Hemiptera, Aphididae) was first detected in Brazil in 1998, in Curitiba, Paraná state, associated with the grass species Erianthus sp., Calamagrotis sp. and Paspalum urvilei. Both the field-collected and laboratory-reared specimens presented a noticeable intrapopulational variation in body and appendix length and in dorso-abdominal sclerotization. This species has been recorded in Malaysia, New Guinea, India, Philippines and Africa, where it colonizes several species of Poaceae. S. graminis differs from other Sitobion species from Brazil associated with grasses, as it presents black cauda and siphunculi and exhibits a constriction in the base of the last rostral segment. Biological data were obtained in the laboratory by rearing newborn nymphs on the inflorescence of the host plants. They passed through four nymphal instars. The mean duration of the nymphal stage was of 11.4 days, with a mortality ratio of 36.5%. The mean pre-larviposition period was of 1.8 days; mean longevity of the females was 25.2 days; and mean fecundity was 18.7 nymphs/female, ranging from 2 to 41 nymphs/female.

Cordiluroides Albuquerque from Costa Rica: first records, descriptions and taxonomic changes (Diptera, Muscidae, Coenosiinae)

Cordiluroides Albuquerque is a genus of Neotropical Coenosiinae (Muscidae), known from six species. The genus is here recorded for the first time from Costa Rica, on the basis of three species: C. listrata Albuquerque, 1954, C. insularis (Willliston, 1896) and C. bistriata (Wulp, 1896) sp. rev.. We provide a key for the identification of these Costa Rican species, redescribe and illustrate their external morphological characters and terminalia. C. bistriata and C. vittifera (Stein, 1904) are both considered to be good species and are re-instated from the synonymy of C. insularis. The type material of C. listrata (Museu Nacional, Rio de Janeiro), of C. insularis and C. bistriata (The Natural History Museum, London) and of C. vittifera (Museum für Naturkunde, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin) has been examined.

Calceology : an introduction to North Western European archaeological leather footwear (Neolithic period to c. AD 1600)

Calceology is the study of recovered archaeological leather footwear and is comprised of conservation, documentation and identification of leather shoe components and shoe styles. Recovered leather shoes are complex artefacts that present technical, stylistic and personal information about the culture and people that used them. The current method in calceological research for typology and chronology is by comparison with parallel examples, though its use poses problems by an absence of basic definitions and the lack of a taxonomic hierarchy. The research findings of the primary cutting patterns, used for making all leather footwear, are integrated with the named style method and the Goubitz notation, resulting in a combined methodology as a basis for typological organisation for recovered footwear and a chronology for named shoe styles. The history of calceological research is examined in chapter two and is accompanied by a review of methodological problems as seen in the literature. Through the examination of various documentation and research techniques used during the history of calceological studies, the reasons why a standard typology and methodology failed to develop are investigated. The variety and continual invention of a new research method for each publication of a recovered leather assemblage hindered the development of a single standard methodology. Chapter three covers the initial research with the database through which the primary cutting patterns were identified and the named styles were defined. The chronological span of each named style was established through iterative cross-site sedation and named style comparisons. The technical interpretation of the primary cutting patterns' consistent use is due to constraints imposed by the leather and the forms needed to cover the foot. Basic parts of the shoe patterns and the foot are defined, plus terms provided for identifying the key points for pattern making. Chapter four presents the seventeen primary cutting patterns and their sub-types, these are divided into three main groups: six integral soled patterns, four hybrid soled patterns and seven separately soled patterns. Descriptions of the letter codes, pattern layout, construction principle, closing seam placement and list of sub-types are included in the descriptions of each primary cutting pattern. The named shoe styles and their relative chronology are presented in chapter five. Nomenclature for the named styles is based on the find location of the first published example plus the primary cutting pattern code letter. The named styles are presented in chronological order from Prehistory through to the late 16th century. Short descriptions of the named styles are given and illustrated with examples of recovered archaeological leather footwear, reconstructions of archaeological shoes and iconographical sources. Chapter six presents documentation of recovered archaeological leather using the Goubitz notation, an inventory and description of style elements and fastening methods used for defining named shoe styles, technical information about sole/upper constructions and the consequences created by the use of lasts and sewing forms for style identification and fastening placement in relation to the instep point. The chapter concludes with further technical information about the implications for researchers about shoemaking, pattern making and reconstructive archaeology. The conclusion restates the original research question of why a group of primary cutting patterns appear to have been used consistently throughout the European archaeological record. The quantitative and qualitative results from the database show the use of these patterns but it is the properties of the leather that imposes the use of the primary cutting patterns. The combined methodology of primary pattern identification, named style and artefact registration provides a framework for calceological research.

First record of Anastrepha parishi Stone (Diptera, Tephritidae) and its host in Brazil

Anastrepha parishi Stone, 1942 was reared in fruits of Oenocarpus bacaba Martius, 1823 (Arecaceae) collected in Pracuúba, State of Amapá. This is the first record of an Anastrepha species in a native species of Arecaceae.