Assessing the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change using an ensemble of statistical bioclimatic envelope models

We assessed the vulnerability of blanket peat to climate change in Great Britain using an ensemble of 8 bioclimatic envelope models. We used 4 published models that ranged from simple threshold models, based on total annual precipitation, to Generalised Linear Models (GLMs, based on mean annual temperature). In addition, 4 new models were developed which included measures of water deficit as threshold, classification tree, GLM and generalised additive models (GAM). Models that included measures of both hydrological conditions and maximum temperature provided a better fit to the mapped peat area than models based on hydrological variables alone. Under UKCIP02 projections for high (A1F1) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 7 out of the 8 models showed a decline in the bioclimatic space associated with blanket peat. Eastern regions (Northumbria, North York Moors, Orkney) were shown to be more vulnerable than higher-altitude, western areas (Highlands, Western Isles and Argyle, Bute and The Trossachs). These results suggest a long-term decline in the distribution of actively growing blanket peat, especially under the high emissions scenario, although it is emphasised that existing peatlands may well persist for decades under a changing climate. Observational data from long-term monitoring and manipulation experiments in combination with process-based models are required to explore the nature and magnitude of climate change impacts on these vulnerable areas more fully.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

Output envelope adjustment for an environmental fuzzy logic controller

A two-level fuzzy logic controller for use in air-conditioning systems is outlined in this paper. At the first level a simplified controller is produced from expert knowledge and envelope adjustment is introduced, while the second level provides a means for adapting this controller to different working spaces. The mechanism for adaption is easily implemented and can be used in real time. A series of simulations is presented to illustrate the proposed schema.

The British state and the Irish rebellion of 1916: an intelligence failure or an failure of response

The teleological narrative that has dominated the handling of intelligence by the British state in the events that led up to the 1916 Irish Rebellion in Dublin has been characterised as a cocktail of incompetence and mendacity. Using new and existing archive material this article argues that both the cabinet in London and key members of the Irish Executive in Dublin were supplied with accurate and timely intelligence by the Admiralty's signals intelligence unit, the Royal Irish Constabulary and the Dublin Metropolitan Police with respect to this event. Far from being a failure of intelligence here is evidence to show that there occurred a failure of response on behalf of key decision-makers. The warnings that were given by intelligence organisations were filtered through the existing policy preferences and assumptions. As a result of these factors accurate evaluations and sound judgement were not exercised by key officials, such as Sir Matthew Nathan, in Dublin Castle.

Temporal-envelope constancy of speech in rooms and the perceptual weighting of frequency bands

Three experiments measured constancy in speech perception, using natural-speech messages or noise-band vocoder versions of them. The eight vocoder-bands had equally log-spaced center-frequencies and the shapes of corresponding “auditory” filters. Consequently, the bands had the temporal envelopes that arise in these auditory filters when the speech is played. The “sir” or “stir” test-words were distinguished by degrees of amplitude modulation, and played in the context; “next you’ll get _ to click on.” Listeners identified test-words appropriately, even in the vocoder conditions where the speech had a “noise-like” quality. Constancy was assessed by comparing the identification of test-words with low or high levels of room reflections across conditions where the context had either a low or a high level of reflections. Constancy was obtained with both the natural and the vocoded speech, indicating that the effect arises through temporal-envelope processing. Two further experiments assessed perceptual weighting of the different bands, both in the test word and in the context. The resulting weighting functions both increase monotonically with frequency, following the spectral characteristics of the test-word’s [s]. It is suggested that these two weighting functions are similar because they both come about through the perceptual grouping of the test-word’s bands.

DC-SIGN increases the affinity of HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein interaction with CD4

Mannose-binding C-type lectin receptors, expressed on Langerhans cells and subepithelial dendritic cells (DCs) of cervico-vaginal tissues, play an important role in HIV-1 capture and subsequent dissemination to lymph nodes. DC-SIGN has been implicated in both productive infection of DCs and the DC-mediated trans infection of CD4(+) T cells that occurs in the absence of replication. However, the molecular events that underlie this efficient transmission have not been fully defined. In this study, we have examined the effect of the extracellular domains of DC-SIGN and Langerin on the stability of the interaction of the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein with CD4 and also on replication in permissive cells. Surface plasmon resonance analysis showed that DC-SIGN increases the binding affinity of trimeric gp140 envelope glycoproteins to CD4. In contrast, Langerin had no effect on the stability of the gp140:CD4 complex. In vitro infection experiments to compare DC-SIGN enhancement of CD4-dependent and CD4-independent strains demonstrated significantly lower enhancement of the CD4-independent strain. In addition DC-SIGN increased the relative rate of infection of the CD4-dependent strain but had no effect on the CD4-independent strain. DC-SIGN binding to the HIV envelope protein effectively increases exposure of the CD4 binding site, which in turn contributes to enhancement of infection.

Expression-system-dependent modulation of HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein antigenicity and immunogenicity.

Recombinant expression systems differ in the type of glycosylation they impart on expressed antigens such as the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) envelope glycoproteins, potentially affecting their biological properties. We performed head-to-head antigenic, immunogenic and molecular profiling of two distantly related Env surface (gp120) antigens produced in different systems: (a) mammalian (293 FreeStyle cells; 293F) cells in the presence of kifunensine, which impart only high-mannose glycans; (b) insect cells (Spodoptera frugiperda, Sf9), which confer mainly paucimannosidic glycans; (c) Sf9 cells recombinant for mammalian glycosylation enzymes (Sf9 Mimic), which impart high-mannose, hybrid and complex glycans without sialic acid; and (d) 293F cells, which impart high-mannose, hybrid and complex glycans with sialic acid. Molecular models revealed a significant difference in gp120 glycan coverage between the Sf9-derived and wild-type mammalian-cell-derived material that is predicted to affect ligand binding sites proximal to glycans. Modeling of solvent-exposed surface electrostatic potentials showed that sialic acid imparts a significant negative surface charge that may influence gp120 antigenicity and immunogenicity. Gp120 expressed in systems that do not incorporate sialic acid displayed increased ligand binding to the CD4 binding and CD4-induced sites compared to those expressed in the system that do, and imparted other more subtle differences in antigenicity in a gp120 subtype-specific manner. Non-sialic-acid-containing gp120 was significantly more immunogenic than the sialylated version when administered in two different adjuvants, and induced higher titers of antibodies competing for CD4 binding site ligand-gp120 interaction. These findings suggest that non-sialic-acid-imparting systems yield gp120 immunogens with modified antigenic and immunogenic properties, considerations that should be considered when selecting expression systems for glycosylated antigens to be used for structure-function studies and for vaccine use.

Mapping of domains on HIV envelope protein mediating association with calnexin and protein-disulfide isomerase.

The cell catalysts calnexin (CNX) and protein-disulfide isomerase (PDI) cooperate in establishing the disulfide bonding of the HIV envelope (Env) glycoprotein. Following HIV binding to lymphocytes, cell-surface PDI also reduces Env to induce the fusogenic conformation. We sought to define the contact points between Env and these catalysts to illustrate their potential as therapeutic targets. In lysates of Env-expressing cells, 15% of the gp160 precursor, but not gp120, coprecipitated with CNX, whereas only 0.25% of gp160 and gp120 coprecipitated with PDI. Under in vitro conditions, which mimic the Env/PDI interaction during virus/cell contact, PDI readily associated with Env. The domains of Env interacting in cellulo with CNX or in vitro with PDI were then determined using anti-Env antibodies whose binding site was occluded by CNX or PDI. Antibodies against domains V1/V2, C2, and the C terminus of V3 did not bind CNX-associated Env, whereas those against C1, V1/V2, and the CD4-binding domain did not react with PDI-associated Env. In addition, a mixture of the latter antibodies interfered with PDI-mediated Env reduction. Thus, Env interacts with intracellular CNX and extracellular PDI via discrete, largely nonoverlapping, regions. The sites of interaction explain the mode of action of compounds that target these two catalysts and may enable the design of further new competitive agents.

Inertia in Japanese organizations: knowledge management routines and failure to innovate

This paper argues that features of Japanese organizations, previously held to be the foundations of innovation, change and flexibility, can equally be significant barriers to change, innovation and adaptation in turbulent economic environments. This paper draws on two in-depth case studies of Japanese organizations. It shows how, in both cases, these firms displayed specific weaknesses in the ways in which they integrate and bundle knowledge, in particular around their research and development (R&D) functions. Despite the adoption of strategies of technological innovation and internationalization, the data suggest that the pursuit of both strategies is beset by barriers of inertia. Embedded internal network connections and knowledge-sharing routines between central R&D and other divisions are inappropriate for the revised strategy. Existing external connections, with preferred suppliers and customers within keiretsu structures, and close relationships with existing R&D partners retard these firms' strategic flexibility. With a limited variety of latent routines, knowledge, capabilities and agency to draw on when needed, these firms have limited organizational responsiveness and high levels of path-dependency.

Improvement of link failure restoration utilising multi-protocol label switching (MPLS) as a means to maintain quality of service (QOS)

This paper proposes a practical approach to the enhancement of Quality of Service (QoS) routing by means of providing alternative or repair paths in the event of a breakage of a working path. The proposed scheme guarantees that every Protected Node (PN) is connected to a multi-repair path such that no further failure or breakage of single or double repair paths can cause any simultaneous loss of connectivity between an ingress node and an egress node. Links to be protected in an MPLS network are predefined and a Label Switched path (LSP) request involves the establishment of a working path. The use of multi-protection paths permits the formation of numerous protection paths allowing greater flexibility. Our analysis examined several methods including single, double and multi-repair routes and the prioritization of signals along the protected paths to improve the Quality of Service (QoS), throughput, reduce the cost of the protection path placement, delay, congestion and collision. Results obtained indicated that creating multi-repair paths and prioritizing packets reduces delay and increases throughput in which case the delays at the ingress/egress LSPs were low compared to when the signals had not been classified. Therefore the proposed scheme provided a means to improve the QoS in path restoration in MPLS using available network resources. Prioritizing the packets in the data plane has revealed that the amount of traffic transmitted using a medium and low priority Label Switch Paths (LSPs) does not have any impact on the explicit rate of the high priority LSP in which case the problem of a knock-on effect is eliminated.

Evaluating the legacies of state-building: success, failure, and the role of responsibility

What impact do international state-building missions have on the domestic politics of states they seek to build, and how can we measure this impact with confidence? This article seeks to address these questions and challenge some existing approaches that often appear to assume that state-builders leave lasting legacies rather than demonstrating such influence with the use of carefully chosen empirical evidence. Too often, domestic conditions that follow in the wake of international state-building are assumed to follow as a result of international intervention, usually due to insufficient attention to the causal processes that link international actions to domestic outcomes. The article calls for greater appreciation of the methodological challenges to establishing causal inferences regarding the legacies of state-building and identifies three qualitative methodological strategies—process tracing, counterfactual analysis, and the use of control cases—that can be used to improve confidence in causal claims about state-building legacies. The article concludes with a case study of international state-building in East Timor, highlighting several flaws of existing evaluations of the United Nations' role in East Timor and identifying the critical role that domestic actors play even in the context of authoritative international intervention

Are transgenic mice the 'alkahest' to understanding myocardial hypertrophy and failure?

Murine transgenesis using cardioselective promoters has become increasingly common in studies of cardiac hypertrophy and heart failure, with expression mediated by pronuclear microinjection being the commonest format. Without wishing to decry their usefulness, in our view, such studies are not necessarily as unambiguous as sometimes portrayed and clarity is not always their consequence. We describe broadly the types of approach undertaken in the heart and point out some of the drawbacks. We provide three arbitrarily-chosen examples where, in spite of a number of often-independent studies, no consensus has yet been achieved. These include glycogen synthase kinase 3, the extracellular signal-regulated kinase pathway and the ryanodine receptor 2. We believe that the transgenic approach should not be viewed in an empyreal light and, depending on the questions asked, we suggest that other experimental systems provide equal (or even more) valuable outcomes.

Conditional transgenic expression of fibroblast growth factor 9 in the adult mouse heart reduces heart failure mortality after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Fibroblast growth factor 9 (FGF9) is secreted from bone marrow cells, which have been shown to improve systolic function after myocardial infarction (MI) in a clinical trial. FGF9 promotes cardiac vascularization during embryonic development but is only weakly expressed in the adult heart. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a tetracycline-responsive binary transgene system based on the α-myosin heavy chain promoter to test whether conditional expression of FGF9 in the adult myocardium supports adaptation after MI. In sham-operated mice, transgenic FGF9 stimulated left ventricular hypertrophy with microvessel expansion and preserved systolic and diastolic function. After coronary artery ligation, transgenic FGF9 enhanced hypertrophy of the noninfarcted left ventricular myocardium with increased microvessel density, reduced interstitial fibrosis, attenuated fetal gene expression, and improved systolic function. Heart failure mortality after MI was markedly reduced by transgenic FGF9, whereas rupture rates were not affected. Adenoviral FGF9 gene transfer after MI similarly promoted left ventricular hypertrophy with improved systolic function and reduced heart failure mortality. Mechanistically, FGF9 stimulated proliferation and network formation of endothelial cells but induced no direct hypertrophic effects in neonatal or adult rat cardiomyocytes in vitro. FGF9-stimulated endothelial cell supernatants, however, induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy via paracrine release of bone morphogenetic protein 6. In accord with this observation, expression of bone morphogenetic protein 6 and phosphorylation of its downstream targets SMAD1/5 were increased in the myocardium of FGF9 transgenic mice. CONCLUSIONS: Conditional expression of FGF9 promotes myocardial vascularization and hypertrophy with enhanced systolic function and reduced heart failure mortality after MI. These observations suggest a previously unrecognized therapeutic potential for FGF9 after MI.