Forecasting the Yield Curve of Government Bonds: A Comparative Study

For the past 20 years, researchers have applied the Kalman filter to the modeling and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. Despite its impressive performance in in-sample fitting yield curves, little research has focused on the out-of-sample forecast of yield curves using the Kalman filter. The goal of this thesis is to develop a unified dynamic model based on Diebold and Li (2006) and Nelson and Siegel’s (1987) three-factor model, and estimate this dynamic model using the Kalman filter. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of our dynamic methods with various other models in the literature. We find that our dynamic model dominates existing models in medium- and long-horizon yield curve predictions. However, the dynamic model should be used with caution when forecasting short maturity yields

Job Demands and Organizational Citizenship Behavior: The Roles of Organizational Commitment and Social Interaction

Drawing from the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model and research on social exchange relationships, this study investigates the impact of three job demands (work overload, interpersonal conflict, and dissatisfaction with the organization’s current situation) on employees’ organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), the hitherto unexplored mediating role of organizational commitment in the link between job demands and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB), as well as how this mediating effect might be moderated by social interaction. Using a multi-source, two-wave research design, surveys were administered to 707 employees and their supervisors in a Mexican-based organization. The hypotheses were tested with hierarchical regression analysis. The results indicate a direct negative relationship between interpersonal conflict and OCB, and a mediating effect of organizational commitment for interpersonal conflict and dissatisfaction with the organization’s current situation. Further, social interaction moderates the mediating effect of organizational commitment for each of the three job demands such that the mediating effect is weaker at higher levels of social interaction. The study suggests that organizations aiming to instill OCB among their employees should match the immediate work context surrounding their task execution with an internal environment that promotes informal relationship building.

Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Evidence of Unstable Effect

Although the link between macroeconomic news announcements and exchange rates is well documented in recent literature, this connection may be unstable. By using a broad set of macroeconomic news announcements and high frequency forex data for the Euro/Dollar, Pound/Dollar and Yen/Dollar from Nov 1, 2004 to Mar 31, 2014, we obtain two major findings with regards to this instability. First, many macroeconomic news announcements exhibit unstable effects with certain patterns in foreign exchange rates. These news effects may change in magnitude and even in their sign over time, over business cycles and crises within distinctive contexts. This finding is robust because the results are obtained by applying a Two-Regime Smooth Transition Regression Model, a Breakpoints Regression Model, and an Efficient Test of Parameter Instability which are all consistent with each other. Second, when we explore the source of this instability, we find that global risks and the reaction by central bank monetary policy to these risks to be possible factors causing this instability.

1964-1965 The Blue Badger

The Blue Badger was Brock University's first Campus Newsletter. It was designed to make faculty, officers, staff, and students aware of goings on around campus and events in the community. It was around from October 1964 to November 1965.

A DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE RELATIONS BETWEEN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, SAVINGS AND INVESTMENTS

The Meese-Rogoff forecasting puzzle states that foreign exchange (FX) rates are unpredictable. Since one country’s macroeconomic conditions could affect the price of its national currency, we study the dynamic relations between the FX rates and some macroeconomic accounts. Our research tests whether the predictability of the FX rates could be improved through the advanced econometrics. Improving the predictability of the FX rates has important implications for various groups including investors, business entities and the government. The present thesis examines the dynamic relations between the FX rates, savings and investments for a sample of 25 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We apply quarterly data of FX rates, macroeconomic indices and accounts including the savings and the investments over three decades. Through preliminary Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root tests and Johansen cointegration tests, we found that the savings rate and the investment rate are cointegrated with the vector (1,-1). This result is consistent with many previous studies on the savings-investment relations and therefore confirms the validity of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Because of the special cointegrating relation between the savings rate and investment rate, we introduce the savings-investment rate differential (SID). Investigating each country through a vector autoregression (VAR) model, we observe extremely insignificant coefficient estimates of the historical SIDs upon the present FX rates. We also report similar findings through the panel VAR approach. We thus conclude that the historical SIDs are useless in forecasting the FX rate. Nonetheless, the coefficients of the past FX rates upon the current SIDs for both the country-specific and the panel VAR models are statistically significant. Therefore, we conclude that the historical FX rates can conversely predict the SID to some degree. Specifically, depreciation in the domestic currency would cause the increase in the SID.

Corporate Social Responsibility, Corporate Governance, And Managerial Risk-Taking

This dissertation investigates the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and managerial risk-taking, as well as the differences in governance structure that affect this association. Using a sample of US public firms from 1995 to 2009, we find that firms with strong CSR records engage in higher risk-taking. Furthermore, we find that this relationship is robust when accounting for differences in governance structure and correcting for endogeneity via simultaneous equations modeling. Additional testing indicates that performance in the employee relations dimension of CSR in particular increases with risk-taking, while high firm visibility dampens the association between CSR and the accounting-based measures of risk-taking. Prior literature establishes that high managerial risk-tolerance is necessary for the undertaking of risky yet value-enhancing investment decisions. Thus, the main findings suggest that CSR, rather than being a waste of scarce corporate resources, is instead an important aspect of shareholder value creation. They contribute to the debate on CSR by documenting that corporate risk-taking is one mechanism among others through which CSR maps into higher firm value.

Examining the Nature of Published Research About Mentoring in Higher Education

The various forms of mentoring relationships in higher education have all proven to be valuable, offering numerous benefits to mentors and protégés. Research into mentoring provides critical insight into aspects of these relationships, which can be used to advance theoretical and practical understandings of the topic. However, little is known about the methodological characteristics of the mentoring research itself. Using descriptive quantitative content analysis, I examined five years of articles published in five scholarly journals to determine the prevalence of research about mentoring in higher education. Not surprisingly, the prevalence of these articles differed significantly among journals in higher education (1.07% to 3.13%) compared to the considerably higher prevalence rate of 53.15% for the mentoring journal, Mentoring & Tutoring [χ2 (4, N = 82) = 143.98, p < .01]. I also report findings related to the prevalence of different empirical research traditions, research designs, and data sources, as well as various populations, such as faculty members or graduate students who serve as mentors or protégés. Given the limited number of mentoring articles published in higher education journals, I was unable to compare methodological characteristics across journals. Implications for theory, research, and practice in the area of mentoring in higher education are also suggested. Understanding the methodological characteristics of the current literature allows researchers to tailor their current studies by either continuing with existing trends in methodological approaches or seeking opportunities to incorporate under-utilized research traditions, designs, or data sources, with the aim of continuing to improve mentoring knowledge and outcomes.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

Improving Performance of Open Access Clinics

Open Access Scheduling has shown great promise in allowing health care practices to provide same-day access, and to match patients with their regular physicians. However, similarly to traditional clinics where appointments are pre-booked, open access clinics are also frustrated with long waits, long idle time and long overtime due to uncertainties such as patient no-shows, variable service time and variable daily demand. These aspects have not been studied previously in an open access setting. This study investigates different management options to improve clinical performance in terms of patient waiting time, doctor idle time and clinic overtime. Other factors studied with a simulation model include client load and placement of pre-booked slots. Results show that a proper panel size is critical to obtain good performance for open access clinics, and that good choices for management options depend on the client load.

Untangling the Organizational Ambiguities in Supply Chain Risk Recognition, Assessment, and Response: The Role of Network Embeddedness

In this thesis, I focus on supply chain risk related ambiguity, which represents the ambiguities firms exhibit in recognizing, assessing, and responding to supply chain disruptions. I, primarily, argue that ambiguities associated with recognizing and responding to supply chain risk are information gathering and processing problems. Guided by the theoretical perspective of bounded rationality, I propose a typology of supply chain risk related ambiguity with four distinct dimensions. I, also, argue that the major contributor to risk related ambiguity is often the environment, specifically the web of suppliers. Hence, I focus on the characteristics of these supplier networks to examine the sources of ambiguity. I define three distinct elements of network embeddedness – relational, structural, and positional embeddedness – and argue that the ambiguity faced by a firm in appropriately identifying the nature or impacts of major disruptions is a function of these network properties. Based on a survey of large North American manufacturing firms, I found that the extent of the relational ties a firm has and its position in the network are significantly related to supply chain risk related ambiguity. However, this study did not provide any significant support for the hypothesized relationship between structural embeddedness and ambiguity. My research contributes towards the study of supply chain disruptions by using the idea of bounded rationality to understand supply chain risk related ambiguity and by providing evidence that the structure of supply chain networks influences the organizational understanding of and responses to supply chain disruptions.

Process Improvement in Phlebotomy

This study has two main objectives. First, the phlebotomy process at the St. Catharines Site of the Niagara Health System is investigated, which starts when an order for a blood test is placed, and ends when the specimen arrives at the lab. The performance measurement is the flow time of the process, which reflects concerns and interests of both the hospital and the patients. Three popular operational methodologies are applied to reduce the flow time and improve the process: DMAIC from Six Sigma, lean principles and simulation modeling. Potential suggestions are provided for the St. Catharines Site, which could result in an average of seven minutes reduction in the flow time. The second objective addresses the fact that these three methodologies have not been combined before in a process improvement effort. A structured framework combining them is developed to benefit future study of phlebotomy and other hospital processes.

Experiential Learning: Creating Meaningful Opportunities

This study examined the practice and implementation of undergraduate student internships in Ontario, Canada. A literature review revealed that implementation of internships at the undergraduate level in Ontario varies within campuses by faculty and department and also across the university spectrum, partly due to a lack of consistency and structure guiding internship practice in Ontario. Moreover, a lack of general consensus among participating stakeholders concerning the philosophy and approach to internship further complicates and varies its practice. While some departments and universities have started to embrace and implement more experiential learning opportunities into their curriculum, the practice of undergraduate internships is struggling to gain acceptance and validity in others. Using the theory of experiential learning as presented by Dewey (1938) and Kolb (1984) as theoretical frameworks, this research project developed an internship implementation strategy to provide structure and guidance to the practice of internships in Ontario’s undergraduate university curriculum.

Contract between John Cronyn and Nelson Forsyth, December 16, 1854.

John Cronyn (1827-1898) emigrated to Canada from Ireland in 1837. He studied medicine at the University of Toronto, but was not granted his degree upon completion of the requirements. He refused to take the test oaths meant to exclude Catholics from the profession and was not granted his degree until several years later, when the discriminatory laws were rescinded. In 1850, he married Elizabeth Willoughby of Toronto. They settled in Fort Erie and he established a successful medical practice there. He was active in the community, serving as Superintendent of schools and one term as Reeve. In 1859 he relocated to Buffalo and continued to practice medicine there. Cronyn was instrumental in the establishment of a medical department at Niagara University, where he was a professor and president of faculty. Nelson Forsyth was the son of William Forsyth (1771-1841), a prominent businessman in Niagara who owned and operated the Pavilion Hotel (later known as Forsyth’s Inn). Nelson was also a businessman and lived in Fort Erie with his wife Archange Warren.

Explaining voice behaviour: The roles of personal resources, social interdependence, and supervisor leadership style

This study contributes to current research on voice behaviour by investigating several under-explored drivers that motivate employees’ expression of constructive ideas about work-related issues. It draws from the concept of psychological climate to examine how voice behaviour is influenced by employees’ (1) personal resources (tenacity and passion for work), (2) perceptions of social interdependence (task and outcome interdependence), and (3) supervisor leadership style (transformational and transactional). Using a multi-source research design, surveys were administered to 226 employees and to 24 supervisors at a Canadian-based not-for-profit organization. The hypotheses are tested with hierarchical regression analysis. The results indicate that employees are more likely to engage in voice behaviour to the extent that they exhibit higher levels of passion for work. Further, their voice behaviour is lower to the extent that their supervisor adopts a transformational leadership style characterized by high performance expectations or a transactional leadership style based on contingent rewards and contingent punishment behaviours. The study reveals that there are no significant effects of tenacity, social interdependence, and behaviour-focused transformational leadership on voice. The findings have significant implications for organizations that seek to encourage employee behaviours that help improve current work practices or undo harmful situations.

Effect of executive compensation on firm performance

The paper finds evidence that the equity-based CEO pay is positively related to firm performance and risk-taking. Both stock price and operating performance as well as firm's riskiness increase in the pay-performance sensitivities (PPS) provided by CEO stock options and stock holdings. PPS can explain stock returns better as an additional factor to the Fama-French 3-factor model. When CEOs are compensated with higher PPS, firms experience higher return on asset (ROA). The higher PPS also leads to the higher risk-taking. While CEO incentive compensation has been perceived mixed on its effectiveness, this study provides support to the equity-based CEO compensation in reducing agency conflicts between CEOs and shareholders.