A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Abundances in the Galactic bulge: results from planetary nebulae and giant stars

Context. Our understanding of the chemical evolution (CE) of the Galactic bulge requires the determination of abundances in large samples of giant stars and planetary nebulae (PNe). Studies based on high resolution spectroscopy of giant stars in several fields of the Galactic bulge obtained with very large telescopes have allowed important progress. Aims. We discuss PNe abundances in the Galactic bulge and compare these results with those presented in the literature for giant stars. Methods. We present the largest, high-quality data-set available for PNe in the direction of the Galactic bulge (inner-disk/bulge). For comparison purposes, we also consider a sample of PNe in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We derive the element abundances in a consistent way for all the PNe studied. By comparing the abundances for the bulge, inner-disk, and LMC, we identify elements that have not been modified during the evolution of the PN progenitor and can be used to trace the bulge chemical enrichment history. We then compare the PN abundances with abundances of bulge field giant. Results. At the metallicity of the bulge, we find that the abundances of O and Ne are close to the values for the interstellar medium at the time of the PN progenitor formation, and hence these elements can be used as tracers of the bulge CE, in the same way as S and Ar, which are not expected to be affected by nucleosynthetic processes during the evolution of the PN progenitors. The PN oxygen abundance distribution is shifted to lower values by 0.3 dex with respect to the distribution given by giants. A similar shift appears to occur for Ne and S. We discuss possible reasons for this PNe-giant discrepancy and conclude that this is probably due to systematic errors in the abundance derivations in either giants or PNe (or both). We issue an important warning concerning the use of absolute abundances in CE studies.

A frequency approach to identifying asteroid families II. Families interacting with nonlinear secular resonances and low-order mean-motion resonances

Aims. In an earlier paper we introduced a new method for determining asteroid families where families were identified in the proper frequency domain (n, g, g + s) ( where n is the mean-motion, and g and s are the secular frequencies of the longitude of pericenter and nodes, respectively), rather than in the proper element domain (a, e, sin(i)) (semi-major axis, eccentricity, and inclination). Here we improve our techniques for reliably identifying members of families that interact with nonlinear secular resonances of argument other than g or g + s and for asteroids near or in mean-motion resonant configurations. Methods. We introduce several new distance metrics in the frequency space optimal for determining the diffusion in secular resonances of argument 2g - s, 3g - s, g - s, s, and 2s. We also regularize the dependence of the g frequency as a function of the n frequency (Vesta family) or of the eccentricity e (Hansa family). Results. Our new approaches allow us to recognize as family members objects that were lost with previous methods, while keeping the advantages of the Carruba & Michtchenko (2007, A& A, 475, 1145) approach. More important, an analysis in the frequency domain permits a deeper understanding of the dynamical evolution of asteroid families not always obtainable with an analysis in the proper element domain.

Chemical potential and the nature of dark energy: The case of a phantom field

The influence of a possible nonzero chemical potential mu on the nature of dark energy is investigated by assuming that the dark energy is a relativistic perfect simple fluid obeying the equation of state, p=omega rho (omega < 0, constant). The entropy condition, S >= 0, implies that the possible values of omega are heavily dependent on the magnitude, as well as on the sign of the chemical potential. For mu > 0, the omega parameter must be greater than -1 (vacuum is forbidden) while for mu < 0 not only the vacuum but even a phantomlike behavior (omega <-1) is allowed. In any case, the ratio between the chemical potential and temperature remains constant, that is, mu/T=mu(0)/T(0). Assuming that the dark energy constituents have either a bosonic or fermionic nature, the general form of the spectrum is also proposed. For bosons mu is always negative and the extended Wien's law allows only a dark component with omega <-1/2, which includes vacuum and the phantomlike cases. The same happens in the fermionic branch for mu < 0. However, fermionic particles with mu > 0 are permitted only if -1 and statistical arguments constrain the equation-of-state parameter to be omega <-1/2, a result surprisingly close to the maximal value required to accelerate a Friedmann-Robertson-Walker-type universe dominated by matter and dark energy (omega less than or similar to-10/21).

Physical and dynamical characterization of (5201) Ferraz-Mello, a possible extinct Jupiter family comet

Context. The subject of asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs) has been of growing interest lately. These objects have the orbital characteristics typical of comets, but are asteroidal in appearance, i.e., show no signs of a coma at any part of their orbits. At least a fraction of these objects are thought to be comets that have either exhausted all their volatile content or developed a refractory crust that prevents sublimation. In particular, the asteroid ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello has, since its discovery, been suspected to be an extinct Jupiter family comet due to the peculiar nature of its orbit. Aims. The aim of this work is to put constraints on the possible origin of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello by means of spectroscopic characterization and a study of the dynamics of this asteroid. Methods. We used the SOAR Optical Imager (SOI) to obtain observations of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello using four SDSS filters. These observations were compared to asteroids listed in the Sloan Moving objects catalog and also to photometry of cometary nuclei, Centaurs, and TNOs. The orbital evolution of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello and of a sample of asteroids and comets that are close to that object in the a - e plane were simulated using a pure N-body code for 4 000 years forward and 4 000 years backward in time. Results. The reflectance spectrum obtained from its colors in the SDSS system is unusual, with a steep spectral gradient that is comparable to TNOs and Centaurs, but with an increase in the reflectance in the g band that is not common in those populations. A similar behavior is seen in cometary nuclei that were observed in the presence of a faint dust coma. The dynamical results confirm the very chaotic evolution found previously and its dynamical similarity to the chaotic evolution of some comets. The asteroid is situated in the very stochastic layer at the border of the 2/1 resonance, and it has a very short Lyapunov time ( 30 - 40) years. Together, the spectral characteristcs and the dynamical evolution suggest that ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello is a dormant or extinct comet.

Rotation curve bifurcations as indicators of close recent galaxy encounters

Context. Rotation curves of interacting galaxies often show that velocities are either rising or falling in the direction of the companion galaxy. Aims. We seek to reproduce and analyse these features in the rotation curves of simulated equal-mass galaxies suffering a one-to-one encounter as possible indicators of close encounters. Methods. Using simulations of major mergers in 3D, we study the time evolution of these asymmetries in a pair of galaxies during the first passage. Results. Our main results are: (a) the rotation curve asymmetries appear right at pericentre of the first passage, (b) the significant disturbed rotation velocities occur within a small time interval, of similar to 0.5 Gyr h(-1), and, therefore, the presence of bifurcation in the velocity curve could be used as an indicator of the pericentre occurrence. These results are in qualitative agreement with previous findings for minor mergers and flybys.

Cosmic distance duality relation and the shape of galaxy clusters

Context. Observations in the cosmological domain are heavily dependent on the validity of the cosmic distance-duality (DD) relation, eta = D(L)(z)(1+ z)(2)/D(A)(z) = 1, an exact result required by the Etherington reciprocity theorem where D(L)(z) and D(A)(z) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. In the limit of very small redshifts D(A)(z) = D(L)(z) and this ratio is trivially satisfied. Measurements of Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE) and X-rays combined with the DD relation have been used to determine D(A)(z) from galaxy clusters. This combination offers the possibility of testing the validity of the DD relation, as well as determining which physical processes occur in galaxy clusters via their shapes. Aims. We use WMAP (7 years) results by fixing the conventional Lambda CDM model to verify the consistence between the validity of DD relation and different assumptions about galaxy cluster geometries usually adopted in the literature. Methods. We assume that. is a function of the redshift parametrized by two different relations: eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z, and eta(z) = 1+eta(0)z/(1+z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying the possible departure from the strict validity of the DD relation. In order to determine the probability density function (PDF) of eta(0), we consider the angular diameter distances from galaxy clusters recently studied by two different groups by assuming elliptical (isothermal) and spherical (non-isothermal) beta models. The strict validity of the DD relation will occur only if the maximum value of eta(0) PDF is centered on eta(0) = 0. Results. It was found that the elliptical beta model is in good agreement with the data, showing no violation of the DD relation (PDF peaked close to eta(0) = 0 at 1 sigma), while the spherical (non-isothermal) one is only marginally compatible at 3 sigma. Conclusions. The present results derived by combining the SZE and X-ray surface brightness data from galaxy clusters with the latest WMAP results (7-years) favors the elliptical geometry for galaxy clusters. It is remarkable that a local property like the geometry of galaxy clusters might be constrained by a global argument provided by the cosmic DD relation.

First stars XIV. Sulfur abundances in extremely metal-poor stars

Context. Precise S abundances are important in the study of the early chemical evolution of the Galaxy. In particular the site of the formation remains uncertain because, at low metallicity, the trend of this alpha-element versus [Fe/H] remains unclear. Moreover, although sulfur is not bound significantly in dust grains in the ISM, it seems to behave differently in DLAs and old metal-poor stars. Aims. We attempt a precise measurement of the S abundance in a sample of extremely metal-poor stars observed with the ESO VLT equipped with UVES, taking into account NLTE and 3D effects. Methods. The NLTE profiles of the lines of multiplet 1 of S I were computed with a version of the program MULTI, including opacity sources from ATLAS9 and based on a new model atom for S. These profiles were fitted to the observed spectra. Results. We find that sulfur in EMP stars behaves like the other alpha-elements, with [S/Fe] remaining approximately constant below [Fe/H] = -3. However, [S/Mg] seems to decrease slightly with increasing [Mg/H]. The overall abundance patterns of O, Na, Mg, Al, S, and K are most closely matched by the SN model yields by Heger & Woosley. The [S/Zn] ratio in EMP stars is solar, as also found in DLAs. We derive an upper limit to the sulfur abundance [S/Fe] < +0.5 for the ultra metal-poor star CS 22949-037. This, along with a previously reported measurement of zinc, argues against the conjecture that the light-element abundance pattern of this star (and by analogy, the hyper iron-poor stars HE 0107-5240 and HE 1327-2326) would be due to dust depletion.

Chemical evolution of the Galactic bulge as traced by microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars IV. Two bulge populations

Based on high-resolution (R approximate to 42 000 to 48 000) and high signal-to-noise (S/N approximate to 50 to 150) spectra obtained with UVES/VLT, we present detailed elemental abundances (O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn, Y, and Ba) and stellar ages for 12 new microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars in the Galactic bulge. Including previous microlensing events, the sample of homogeneously analysed bulge dwarfs has now grown to 26. The analysis is based on equivalent width measurements and standard 1-D LTE MARCS model stellar atmospheres. We also present NLTE Li abundances based on line synthesis of the (7)Li line at 670.8 nm. The results from the 26 microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars show that the bulge metallicity distribution (MDF) is double-peaked; one peak at [Fe/H] approximate to -0.6 and one at [Fe/H] approximate to +0.3, and with a dearth of stars around solar metallicity. This is in contrast to the MDF derived from red giants in Baade's window, which peaks at this exact value. A simple significance test shows that it is extremely unlikely to have such a gap in the microlensed dwarf star MDF if the dwarf stars are drawn from the giant star MDF. To resolve this issue we discuss several possibilities, but we can not settle on a conclusive solution for the observed differences. We further find that the metal-poor bulge dwarf stars are predominantly old with ages greater than 10 Gyr, while the metal-rich bulge dwarf stars show a wide range of ages. The metal-poor bulge sample is very similar to the Galactic thick disk in terms of average metallicity, elemental abundance trends, and stellar ages. Speculatively, the metal-rich bulge population might be the manifestation of the inner thin disk. If so, the two bulge populations could support the recent findings, based on kinematics, that there are no signatures of a classical bulge and that the Milky Way is a pure-disk galaxy. Also, recent claims of a flat IMF in the bulge based on the MDF of giant stars may have to be revised based on the MDF and abundance trends probed by our microlensed dwarf stars.

First stars XIII. Two extremely metal-poor RR Lyrae stars

Context. The chemical composition of extremely metal-poor stars (EMP stars; [Fe/H] < similar to -3) is a unique tracer of early nucleosynthesis in the Galaxy. As such stars are rare, we wish to find classes of luminous stars which can be studied at high spectral resolution. Aims. We aim to determine the detailed chemical composition of the two EMP stars CS 30317-056 and CS 22881-039, originally thought to be red horizontal-branch (RHB) stars, and compare it to earlier results for EMP stars as well as to nucleosynthesis yields from various supernova (SN) models. In the analysis, we discovered that our targets are in fact the two most metal-poor RR Lyrae stars known. Methods. Our detailed abundance analysis, taking into account the variability of the stars, is based on VLT/UVES spectra (R similar or equal to 43 000) and 1D LTE OSMARCS model atmospheres and synthetic spectra. For comparison with SN models we also estimate NLTE corrections for a number of elements. Results. We derive LTE abundances for the 16 elements O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Sr and Ba, in good agreement with earlier values for EMP dwarf, giant and RHB stars. Li and C are not detected in either star. NLTE abundance corrections are newly calculated for O and Mg and taken from the literature for other elements. The resulting abundance pattern is best matched by model yields for supernova explosions with high energy and/or significant asphericity effects. Conclusions. Our results indicate that, except for Li and C, the surface composition of EMP RR Lyr stars is not significantly affected by mass loss, mixing or diffusion processes; hence, EMP RR Lyr stars should also be useful tracers of the chemical evolution of the early Galactic halo. The observed abundance ratios indicate that these stars were born from an ISM polluted by energetic, massive (25-40 M(circle dot)) and/or aspherical supernovae, but the NLTE corrections for Sc and certain other elements do play a role in the choice of model.

THE SPECTRAL EVOLUTION AND EJECTA OF RECURRENT NOVA U Sco IN THE 2010 OUTBURST

Synoptic spectroscopic observations of the U Sco 2010 outburst from maximum light to quiescence as well as a contemporaneous X-ray observation are presented and analyzed. The X-ray spectrum 52 days after outburst indicates a hot source ( kT(bb) similar to 70 eV). Narrow-line components from the irradiated companion atmosphere were observed in hydrogen and helium optical recombination lines. The formation of a nebular spectrum is seen for the first time in this class of recurrent novae, allowing a detailed study of the ejecta using photoionization models. Unusual [O III] auroral-to-nebular line ratios were found and possible scenarios of their origin are discussed. The modeling of the emission line spectrum suggests highly heterogeneous ejecta with masses around or above 3 x 10(-6) M(sun).

THE GEMINI NICI PLANET-FINDING CAMPAIGN: DISCOVERY OF A CLOSE SUBSTELLAR COMPANION TO THE YOUNG DEBRIS DISK STAR PZ Tel

We report the discovery of a tight substellar companion to the young solar analog PZ Tel, a member of the beta Pic moving group observed with high-contrast adaptive optics imaging as part of the Gemini Near-Infrared Coronagraphic Imager Planet-Finding Campaign. The companion was detected at a projected separation of 16.4 +/- 1.0 AU (0.'' 33 +/- 0.'' 01) in 2009 April. Second-epoch observations in 2010 May demonstrate that the companion is physically associated and shows significant orbital motion. Monte Carlo modeling constrains the orbit of PZ Tel B to eccentricities >0.6. The near-IR colors of PZ Tel B indicate a spectral type of M7 +/- 2 and thus this object will be a new benchmark companion for studies of ultracool, low-gravity photospheres. Adopting an age of 12(-4)(+8) Myr for the system, we estimate a mass of 36 +/- 6 M(Jup) based on the Lyon/DUSTY evolutionary models. PZ Tel B is one of the few young substellar companions directly imaged at orbital separations similar to those of giant planets in our own solar system. Additionally, the primary star PZ Tel A shows a 70 mu m emission excess, evidence for a significant quantity of circumstellar dust that has not been disrupted by the orbital motion of the companion.

The young, tight, and low-mass binary TWA22AB: a new calibrator for evolutionary models? Orbit, spectral types, and temperature

Context. Tight binaries discovered in young, nearby associations are ideal targets for providing dynamical mass measurements to test the physics of evolutionary models at young ages and very low masses. Aims. We report the binarity of TWA22 for the first time. We aim at monitoring the orbit of this young and tight system to determine its total dynamical mass using an accurate distance determination. We also intend to characterize the physical properties (luminosity, effective temperature, and surface gravity) of each component based on near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations. Methods. We used the adaptive-optics assisted imager NACO to resolve the components, to monitor the complete orbit and to obtain the relative near-infrared photometry of TWA22 AB. The adaptive-optics assisted integral field spectrometer SINFONI was also used to obtain medium-resolution (R(lambda) = 1500-2000) spectra in JHK bands. Comparison with empirical and synthetic librairies were necessary for deriving the spectral type, the effective temperature, and the surface gravity for each component of the system. Results. Based on an accurate trigonometric distance (17.5 +/- 0.2 pc) determination, we infer a total dynamical mass of 220 +/- 21 M(Jup) for the system. From the complete set of spectra, we find an effective temperature T(eff) = 2900(-200)(+200) K for TWA22A and T(eff) = 2900(-100)(+200) for TWA22 B and surface gravities between 4.0 and 5.5 dex. From our photometry and an M6 +/- 1 spectral type for both components, we find luminosities of log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.11 +/- 0.13 dex and log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.30 +/- 0.16 dex for TWA22 A and B, respectively. By comparing these parameters with evolutionary models, we question the age and the multiplicity of this system. We also discuss a possible underestimation of the mass predicted by evolutionary models for young stars close to the substellar boundary.

Kinematic analysis and membership status of TWA22 AB

Context. TWA22 was initially regarded as a member of the TW Hydrae association (TWA). In addition to being one of the youngest (approximate to 8 Myr) and nearest (approximate to 20 pc) stars to Earth, TWA22 has proven to be very interesting after being resolved as a tight, very low-mass binary. This binary can serve as a very useful dynamical calibrator for pre-main sequence evolutionary models. However, its membership in the TWA has been recently questioned despite due to the lack of accurate kinematic measurements. Aims. Based on proper motion, radial velocity, and trigonometric parallax measurements, we aim here to re-analyze the membership of TWA22 to young, nearby associations. Methods. Using the ESO NTT/SUSI2 telescope, we observed TWA22 AB during 5 different observing runs over 1.2 years to measure its trigonometric parallax and proper motion. This is a part of a larger project measuring trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions of most known TWA members at a sub-milliarcsec level. HARPS at the ESO 3.6 m telescope was also used to measure the system's radial velocity over 2 years. Results. We report an absolute trigonometric parallax of TWA22 AB, pi = 57.0 +/- 0.7 mas, corresponding to a distance 17.5 +/- 0.2 pc from Earth. Measured proper motions of TWA 22AB are mu(alpha) cos(delta) = -175.8 +/- 0.8 mas/yr and mu delta = -21.3 +/- 0.8 mas/yr. Finally, from HARPS measurements, we obtain a radial velocity V(rad) = 14.8 +/- 2.1 km s(-1). Conclusions. A kinematic analysis of TWA22 AB space motion and position implies that a membership of TWA22 AB to known young, nearby associations can be excluded except for the beta Pictoris and TW Hydrae associations. Membership probabilities based on the system's Galactic space motion and/or the trace-back technique support a higher chance of being a member to the beta Pictoris association. Membership of TWA22 in the TWA cannot be fully excluded because of large uncertainties in parallax measurements and radial velocities and to the uncertain internal velocity dispersion of its members.

The close circumstellar environment of Betelgeuse II. Diffraction-limited spectro-imaging from 7.76 to 19.50 mu m with VLT/VISIR

Context. Mass-loss occurring in red supergiants (RSGs) is a major contributor to the enrichment of the interstellar medium in dust and molecules. The physical mechanism of this mass loss is however relatively poorly known. Betelgeuse is the nearest RSG, and as such a prime object for high angular resolution observations of its surface (by interferometry) and close circumstellar environment. Aims. The goal of our program is to understand how the material expelled from Betelgeuse is transported from its surface to the interstellar medium, and how it evolves chemically in this process. Methods. We obtained diffraction-limited images of Betelgeuse and a calibrator (Aldebaran) in six filters in the N band (7.76 to 12.81 mu m) and two filters in the Q band (17.65 and 19.50 mu m), using the VLT/VISIR instrument. Results. Our images show a bright, extended and complex circumstellar envelope at all wavelengths. It is particularly prominent longwards of approximate to 9-10 mu m, pointing at the presence of O-rich dust, such as silicates or alumina. A partial circular shell is observed between 0.5 and 1.0 '' from the star, and could correspond to the inner radius of the dust envelope. Several knots and filamentary structures are identified in the nebula. One of the knots, located at a distance of 0.9 '' west of the star, is particularly bright and compact. Conclusions. The circumstellar envelope around Betelgeuse extends at least up to several tens of stellar radii. Its relatively high degree of clumpiness indicates an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the material lost by the star. Its extension corresponds to an important intermediate scale, where most of the dust is probably formed, between the hot and compact gaseous envelope observed previously in the near infrared and the interstellar medium.