Irreversible investment in stochastically cyclical markets

This paper presents a new framework for studying irreversible (dis)investment whena market follows a random number of random-length cycles (such as a high-tech productmarket). It is assumed that a firm facing such market evolution is always unsure aboutwhether the current cycle is the last one, although it can update its beliefs about theprobability of facing a permanent decline by observing that no further growth phasearrives. We show that the existence of regime shifts in fluctuating markets suffices for anoption value of waiting to (dis)invest to arise, and we provide a marginal interpretationof the optimal (dis)investment policies, absent in the real options literature. Thepaper also shows that, despite the stochastic process of the underlying variable has acontinuous sample path, the discreteness in the regime changes implies that the samplepath of the firm s value experiences jumps whenever the regime switches all of a sudden,irrespective of whether the firm is active or not.

Annual Report of the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission for Fiscal Year, 2007

FY2007 was a productive year for the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission. Fourteen proposals were recommended for funding totaling over $390,000 in outlays. Included in the approved proposals were funds for the establishment and staffing of a Midwest Grape and Wine Institute at Iowa State University, a newly created viticulturist position at Des Moines Area Community College, funding for the first annual Mid-American Wine Competition, and marketing and promotion of four regional cooperative wine events and one wine trail. Commission funding supported a survey of commercial wine producers and grape growers and a new brochure on Iowa’s vineyards. A committee was formed to provide details for a Scholarship Program to aid vineyard and winery staff with the expenses of accredited coursework. Based on the survey conducted and from other governmental and industry sources, the Iowa grape and wine industry appears to continue to be very viable and growth continues at a strong pace. Wine produced in the state for 2007 was estimated at a market value in excess of $12.3 million. A tabulation of the budget revealed that just over $800,000 in wine gallonage tax appropriations have been received into the Grape and Wine Development Fund from 15 FY2003 through FY2007. Expenditures have totaled just over $607,000 during that same time. Just over 80% of expenditures have gone to “Technical” spending. Over time, funds invested in “Technical” programs will translate into an increasingly educated and institutionally-supported industry. Local, regional, and statewide events also appear to be increasing in popularity and the Commission plans to continue and increase support for these events. It is hoped the Scholarship Program will be up and running and funding will need to be appropriated for that project. The Commission also believes many projects and events will become more and more self sustaining as they develop and mature. As they continue to support Iowa’s grape and wine industry, the members of the Commission look forward to working with individuals, commercial enterprises, state and federal agencies, and industry-sponsored institutions in the upcoming year and in years to come.

Annual Report of the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission for Fiscal Year, 2008

FY2008 was a productive year for the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission. Sixteen proposals were recommended for funding from FY2008 funds and carryover totaling just over $396,000 in outlays. Included in the approved proposals were staffing and equipment for the Midwest Grape and Wine Industry Institute’s wine diagnostics laboratory at Iowa State University, continued support for the viticulturist position at Des Moines Area Community College, funding for the second annual Mid-American Wine Competition, and assistance for marketing and promotion of Ice coats an Iowa vineyard after a February 2008 ice storm. Photo by Mike White and courtesy of Iowa State University. 16 two wine trail associations and seven festivals and events. Commission funding supported a salaried position within IDALS to manage the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Fund and to serve as the Director of the Iowa Grape and Wine Development Commission. The Commission approved funding for a Scholarship Program. The formally created Scholarship Committee met twice in FY2008 to finalize details for the Program and to approve scholarships to twenty-six applicants to aid with the expenses of accredited coursework. Based on data collected by IDALS, the Iowa Department of Economic Development, the Iowa Alcoholic Beverages Division, and Iowa State University the Iowa grape and wine industry appears to continue to be very viable and growth continues at a strong pace. Presently, Iowa ranks 14th in the nation for the number of wineries, and wine produced in the state for 2008 was estimated at a market value in excess of $14.0 million. A tabulation of the budget revealed that just over $1,080,000 in wine gallonage tax appropriations and legislative appropriations have been deposited into the Grape and Wine Development Fund from FY2003 through FY2008. Removing encumbered funds, expenditures have totaled just over $942,500 during that same time. “Financial” funding – used for fostering public awareness and participation of industry events - increased from 6% of expenditures in FY2007 to 9% in FY2008. Used for support of research, education, and outreach, a little over 80% of expenditures and encumbered funds were earmarked for “Technical” spending. Over time, funds invested in “Technical” programs will translate into an increasingly educated and institutionally-supported industry. Local, regional, and statewide events also appeared to be increasing in popularity. The Commission was encouraged to see increased support for these events. It is hoped, too, that the Scholarship Program will provide needed funding to help meet the educational goals of the industry’s workforce. As they continue to support Iowa’s grape and wine industry, the Commissioners look forward to working with individuals, commercial enterprises, state and federal agencies, and industry-sponsored institutions in FY2009 and in years to come.

Business Sphere, Vol. 17, no.2

Anadvanced foods economy is under development in the state of Iowa that builds on Iowa’s established strengths in plant and animal sciences,production agriculture, food science, nutrition, and processing technology. This new pathway was identified when Battelle Institute studied Iowa’s strengths in the biosciences and recommended six technology platforms as opportunities to use these strengths for growing the economy. One of those technology platforms is functional foods, sometimes called nutraceuticals.

ON THE ROLE OF PERIOD-2 IN THE CIRCADIAN AND HOMEOSTATIC REGULATION OF SLEEP

Humans spend one third of their life sleeping, then we could raise the basic question: Why do we sleep? Despite the fact that we still don't fully understand its function, we made much progress in understanding at different levels how sleep is regulated. One model suggests that sleep is regulated by two processes: a homeostatic process that tracks the need for sleep and by a circadian rhythm that determines the preferred time-of-day sleep occurs. At the molecular level circadian rhythms are a property of interlocking transcriptional regula-tors referred to as clock genes. The heterodimeric transcription factors BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 drive the transcription of many target genes including the clock genes Cryptochome1 (Cry1), Cry2, Period1 (Per1), and Per2. The encoded CRY/PER proteins are transcriptional inhibitors of BMAL1::CLOCK/NPAS2 thereby providing negative feedback to their own transcription. These genes seem, however, also involved in sleep homeostasis because the brain expression of clock genes, es-pecially that of Per2, increase as a function of time-spent-awake and because mice lacking clock genes display altered sleep homeostasis. The aim of first part of my doctoral work has been to advance our understanding the link that exists between sleep homeostasis and circadian rhythms investigating a possible mechanism by which sleep deprivation could alter clock gene expression by quantifying DNA-binding of the core-clock genes BMAL1, CLOCK and NPAS2 to their target chromatin loci including the E-box enhancers of the Per2 promoter. We made use of chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) and quantitative poly-merase chain reaction (qPCR) to show that DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to their target genes changes as a function of time-of-day in both liver and cerebral cortex. We then performed a 6h sleep deprivation (SD) and observed a significant decrease in DNA-binding of CLOCK and BMAL1 to Dbp. This is consistent with a decrease in Dbp mRNA levels after SD. The DNA-binding of NPAS2 and BMAL1 to Per2 was similarly decreased following SD. However, SD has been previously shown to in-crease Per2 expression in the cortex which seems paradoxical. Our results demonstrate that sleep-wake history can affect the molecular clock machinery directly at the level of the chromatin thereby altering the cortical expression of Dbp and Per2, and likely other targets. However, the precise dy-namic relationship between DNA-binding and mRNA expression, especially for Per2, remains elusive. The second aim of my doctoral work has been to perform an in depth characterization of cir-cadian rhythmicity, sleep architecture, analyze the response to SD in full null-Per2 knock-out (Per2-/-) mice, and Per1-/- mice, as well as their double knock-out offspring (Per1,2-/-) and littermate wildtype (Wt) mice. The techniques used include locomotor activity recording by passive infrared (PIR) sen-sors, EEG/EMG surgery, recording, and analysis, and cerebral cortex extraction and quantification of mRNA levels by qPCR. Under standard LD12:12 conditions, we found that wakefulness onset, as well as the time courses of clock gene expression in the brain and corticosterone plasma levels were ad-vanced by about 2h in Per2-/- mice compared to Wt mice. When released under constant dark condi-tions almost all Per2-/- mice (97%) became arrhythmic immediately. From these observations, we conclude that while Per2-/- mice seem to be able to anticipate dark onset, this does not result from a self-sustained circadian clock. Our results suggest instead that the earlier onset of activity results from a labile, not-self sustained 22h rhythm linked to light onset suggesting the existence of a light-driven rhythm. Analyses of sleep under LD12:12 conditions revealed that in both Per2-/- and Per1,2-/- mice the same sleep phenotypes are observed compared to Wt mice: increased NREM sleep frag-mentation and inability to adequately compensate the loss of NREM sleep. That suggests a possible role of PER2 in sleep consolidation and recovery.

On-shoe wearable sensors for gait and turning assessment of patients with Parkinson's disease.

Assessment of locomotion through simple tests such as timed up and go (TUG) or walking trials can provide valuable information for the evaluation of treatment and the early diagnosis of people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Common methods used in clinics are either based on complex motion laboratory settings or simple timing outcomes using stop watches. The goal of this paper is to present an innovative technology based on wearable sensors on-shoe and processing algorithm, which provides outcome measures characterizing PD motor symptoms during TUG and gait tests. Our results on ten PD patients and ten age-matched elderly subjects indicate an accuracy ± precision of 2.8 ± 2.4 cm/s and 1.3 ± 3.0 cm for stride velocity and stride length estimation compared to optical motion capture, with the advantage of being practical to use in home or clinics without any discomfort for the subject. In addition, the use of novel spatio-temporal parameters, including turning, swing width, path length, and their intercycle variability, was also validated and showed interesting tendencies for discriminating patients in ON and OFF states and control subjects.

Blood flow, flow reserve, and glucose utilization in viable and nonviable myocardium in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy.

PURPOSE: The aim of the study was to determine whether glucose uptake in viable myocardium of ischemic cardiomyopathy patients depends on rest myocardial blood flow (MBF) and the residual myocardial flow reserve (MFR). METHODS: Thirty-six patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (left ventricular ejection fraction 25 ± 10 %) were studied with N-ammonia and F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET). Twenty age-matched normals served as controls. Regional MBF was determined at rest and during dipyridamole hyperemia and regional FDG extraction was estimated from regional FDG to N-ammonia activity ratios. RESULTS: Rest MBF was reduced in viable (0.42 ± 0.18 ml/min per g) and nonviable regions (0.32 ± 0.09 ml/min per g) relative to remote regions (0.68 ± 0.23 ml/min per g, p < 0.001) and to normals (0.63 ± 0.13 ml/min per g). Dipyridamole raised MBFs in controls, remote, viable, and nonviable regions. MBFs at rest (p < 0.05) and stress (p < 0.05) in viable regions were significantly higher than that in nonviable regions, while MFRs did not differ significantly (p > 0.05). Compared to MFR in remote myocardium, MFRs in viable regions were similar (1.39 ± 0.56 vs 1.70 ± 0.45, p > 0.05) but were significantly lower in nonviable regions (1.23 ± 0.43, p < 0.001). Moreover, the FDG and thus glucose extraction was higher in viable than in remote (1.40 ± 0.14 vs 0.90 ± 0.20, p < 0.001) and in nonviable regions (1.13 ± 0.21, p < 0.001). The extraction of FDG in viable regions was independent of rest MBF but correlated inversely with MFRs (r =-0.424, p < 0.05). No correlation between the FDG extraction and MFR was observed in nonviable regions. CONCLUSION: As in the animal model, decreasing MFRs in viable myocardium are associated with increasing glucose extraction that likely reflects a metabolic adaptation of remodeling hibernating myocytes.

Simultaneous quantification of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and metabolites in human plasma by liquid chromatography-electrospray mass spectrometry for therapeutic drug monitoring.

A simple and sensitive liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization mass spectrometry method was developed for the simultaneous quantification in human plasma of all selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (citalopram, fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, paroxetine and sertraline) and their main active metabolites (desmethyl-citalopram and norfluoxetine). A stable isotope-labeled internal standard was used for each analyte to compensate for the global method variability, including extraction and ionization variations. After sample (250μl) pre-treatment with acetonitrile (500μl) to precipitate proteins, a fast solid-phase extraction procedure was performed using mixed mode Oasis MCX 96-well plate. Chromatographic separation was achieved in less than 9.0min on a XBridge C18 column (2.1×100mm; 3.5μm) using a gradient of ammonium acetate (pH 8.1; 50mM) and acetonitrile as mobile phase at a flow rate of 0.3ml/min. The method was fully validated according to Société Française des Sciences et Techniques Pharmaceutiques protocols and the latest Food and Drug Administration guidelines. Six point calibration curves were used to cover a large concentration range of 1-500ng/ml for citalopram, desmethyl-citalopram, paroxetine and sertraline, 1-1000ng/ml for fluoxetine and fluvoxamine, and 2-1000ng/ml for norfluoxetine. Good quantitative performances were achieved in terms of trueness (84.2-109.6%), repeatability (0.9-14.6%) and intermediate precision (1.8-18.0%) in the entire assay range including the lower limit of quantification. Internal standard-normalized matrix effects were lower than 13%. The accuracy profiles (total error) were mainly included in the acceptance limits of ±30% for biological samples. The method was successfully applied for routine therapeutic drug monitoring of more than 1600 patient plasma samples over 9 months. The β-expectation tolerance intervals determined during the validation phase were coherent with the results of quality control samples analyzed during routine use. This method is therefore precise and suitable both for therapeutic drug monitoring and pharmacokinetic studies in most clinical laboratories.

Effect of fertilization at sowing on nutrition and yield of crambe in second season

The interest in crambe (Crambe abyssinica ) cultivation in Brazil is on the rise, whereas information on the nutrient requirements for this crop is scarce. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of nitrogen-phosphorus-potassium (N-P2O5-K2O formula 8:28:16) fertilization (0, 150, and 300 kg ha-1) on crambe shoot biomass production, grain and oil yields, and nutrient extraction and exportation in the second growing season after soybean. The experiment with a Haplorthox (Dystroferric Red Latosol) was carried out for two years in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. A randomized complete block design with eight replications was used. Fertilization with NPK at sowing increased the shoot biomass production, grain yield, grain oil content, as well as nutrient extraction and exportation at harvest. In the fertilized treatments, the average amounts of nutrients extracted per hectare were 91 kg K, 71 kg N, 52 kg Ca, 9.4 kg P, 9.4 kg Mg, 7.9 kg S, 2,348 g Fe, 289 g Zn, 135 g Mn, and 18.2 g Cu; while the average values of nutrient exportation per hectare were 54 kg N, 20 kg K, 12.3 kg Ca, 10 kg P, 6.6 kg S, 3.2 kg Mg, 365 g Zn, 60 g Fe, 50 g Mn, and 7.3 g Cu, with NPK fertilizer application.

Methods to Quantify Nickel in Soils and Plant Tissues

In comparison with other micronutrients, the levels of nickel (Ni) available in soils and plant tissues are very low, making quantification very difficult. The objective of this paper is to present optimized determination methods of Ni availability in soils by extractants and total content in plant tissues for routine commercial laboratory analyses. Samples of natural and agricultural soils were processed and analyzed by Mehlich-1 extraction and by DTPA. To quantify Ni in the plant tissues, samples were digested with nitric acid in a closed system in a microwave oven. The measurement was performed by inductively coupled plasma/optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). There was a positive and significant correlation between the levels of available Ni in the soils subjected to Mehlich-1 and DTPA extraction, while for plant tissue samples the Ni levels recovered were high and similar to the reference materials. The availability of Ni in some of the natural soil and plant tissue samples were lower than the limits of quantification. Concentrations of this micronutrient were higher in the soil samples in which Ni had been applied. Nickel concentration differed in the plant parts analyzed, with highest levels in the grains of soybean. The grain, in comparison with the shoot and leaf concentrations, were better correlated with the soil available levels for both extractants. The methods described in this article were efficient in quantifying Ni and can be used for routine laboratory analysis of soils and plant tissues.

Data-driven clustering : new methods and applications

Abstract : This work is concerned with the development and application of novel unsupervised learning methods, having in mind two target applications: the analysis of forensic case data and the classification of remote sensing images. First, a method based on a symbolic optimization of the inter-sample distance measure is proposed to improve the flexibility of spectral clustering algorithms, and applied to the problem of forensic case data. This distance is optimized using a loss function related to the preservation of neighborhood structure between the input space and the space of principal components, and solutions are found using genetic programming. Results are compared to a variety of state-of--the-art clustering algorithms. Subsequently, a new large-scale clustering method based on a joint optimization of feature extraction and classification is proposed and applied to various databases, including two hyperspectral remote sensing images. The algorithm makes uses of a functional model (e.g., a neural network) for clustering which is trained by stochastic gradient descent. Results indicate that such a technique can easily scale to huge databases, can avoid the so-called out-of-sample problem, and can compete with or even outperform existing clustering algorithms on both artificial data and real remote sensing images. This is verified on small databases as well as very large problems. Résumé : Ce travail de recherche porte sur le développement et l'application de méthodes d'apprentissage dites non supervisées. Les applications visées par ces méthodes sont l'analyse de données forensiques et la classification d'images hyperspectrales en télédétection. Dans un premier temps, une méthodologie de classification non supervisée fondée sur l'optimisation symbolique d'une mesure de distance inter-échantillons est proposée. Cette mesure est obtenue en optimisant une fonction de coût reliée à la préservation de la structure de voisinage d'un point entre l'espace des variables initiales et l'espace des composantes principales. Cette méthode est appliquée à l'analyse de données forensiques et comparée à un éventail de méthodes déjà existantes. En second lieu, une méthode fondée sur une optimisation conjointe des tâches de sélection de variables et de classification est implémentée dans un réseau de neurones et appliquée à diverses bases de données, dont deux images hyperspectrales. Le réseau de neurones est entraîné à l'aide d'un algorithme de gradient stochastique, ce qui rend cette technique applicable à des images de très haute résolution. Les résultats de l'application de cette dernière montrent que l'utilisation d'une telle technique permet de classifier de très grandes bases de données sans difficulté et donne des résultats avantageusement comparables aux méthodes existantes.

Physical activity level and health-related quality of life in the general adult population: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known regarding health-related quality of life and its relation with physical activity level in the general population. Our primary objective was to systematically review data examining this relationship. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO for health-related quality of life and physical activity related keywords in titles, abstracts, or indexing fields. RESULTS: From 1426 retrieved references, 55 citations were judged to require further evaluation. Fourteen studies were retained for data extraction and analysis; seven were cross-sectional studies, two were cohort studies, four were randomized controlled trials and one used a combined cross sectional and longitudinal design. Thirteen different methods of physical activity assessment were used. Most health-related quality of life instruments related to the Medical Outcome Study SF-36 questionnaire. Cross-sectional studies showed a consistently positive association between self-reported physical activity and health-related quality of life. The largest cross-sectional study reported an adjusted odds ratio of "having 14 or more unhealthy days" during the previous month to be 0.40 (95% Confidence Interval 0.36-0.45) for those meeting recommended levels of physical activity compared to inactive subjects. Cohort studies and randomized controlled trials tended to show a positive effect of physical activity on health-related quality of life, but similar to the cross-sectional studies, had methodological limitations. CONCLUSION: Cross-sectional data showed a consistently positive association between physical activity level and health-related quality of life. Limited evidence from randomized controlled trials and cohort studies precludes a definitive statement about the nature of this association.

Contribution of microbial and invertebrate communities to leaf litter colonization in a Mediterranean stream

Leaf litter inputs and retention play an important role in ecosystem functioning in forested streams. We examined colonization of leaves by microbes (bacteria, fungi, and protozoa) and fauna in Fuirosos, an intermittent forested Mediterranean stream. Black poplar (Populus nigra) and plane (Platanus acerifolia) leaf packs were placed in the stream for 4 mo. We measured the biomasses and calculated the densities of bacteria, fungi, protozoa, meiofauna, and macroinvertebrates to determine their dynamics and potential interactions throughout the colonization process. Colonization was strongly correlated with hydrological variability (defined mainly by water temperature and discharge). The 1st week of colonization was characterized by hydrological stability and warm water temperatures, and allocation of C from microbial to invertebrate compartments on the leaf packs was rapid. Clumps of fine particulate organic matter (FPOM) were retained by the leaf packs, and enhanced rapid colonization by microfauna and meiofaunal collector-gatherers (ostracods and copepods). After 2 wk, an autumnal flood caused a 20-fold increase in water flow. Higher discharge and lower water temperature caused FPOM-related fauna to drift away from the packs and modified the subsequent colonization sequence. Fungi showed the highest biomass, with similar values to those recorded at the beginning of the experiment. After 70 d of postflood colonization, fungi decreased to nearly 40% of the total C in the leaf packs, whereas invertebrates became more abundant and accounted for 60% of the C. Natural flood occurrence in Mediterranean streams could be a key factor in the colonization and processing of organic matter.

Fast quantification of ten psychotropic drugs and metabolites in human plasma by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry for therapeutic drug monitoring.

A sensitive and selective ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) method was developed for the fast quantification of ten psychotropic drugs and metabolites in human plasma for the needs of our laboratory (amisulpride, asenapine, desmethyl-mirtazapine, iloperidone, mirtazapine, norquetiapine, olanzapine, paliperidone, quetiapine and risperidone). Stable isotope-labeled internal standards were used for all analytes, to compensate for the global method variability, including extraction and ionization variations. Sample preparation was performed by generic protein precipitation with acetonitrile. Chromatographic separation was achieved in less than 3.0min on an Acquity UPLC BEH Shield RP18 column (2.1mm×50mm; 1.7μm), using a gradient elution of 10mM ammonium formate buffer pH 3.0 and acetonitrile at a flow rate of 0.4ml/min. The compounds were quantified on a tandem quadrupole mass spectrometer operating in positive electrospray ionization mode, using multiple reaction monitoring. The method was fully validated according to the latest recommendations of international guidelines. Eight point calibration curves were used to cover a large concentration range 0.5-200ng/ml for asenapine, desmethyl-mirtazapine, iloperidone, mirtazapine, olanzapine, paliperidone and risperidone, and 1-1500ng/ml for amisulpride, norquetiapine and quetiapine. Good quantitative performances were achieved in terms of trueness (93.1-111.2%), repeatability (1.3-8.6%) and intermediate precision (1.8-11.5%). Internal standard-normalized matrix effects ranged between 95 and 105%, with a variability never exceeding 6%. The accuracy profiles (total error) were included in the acceptance limits of ±30% for biological samples. This method is therefore suitable for both therapeutic drug monitoring and pharmacokinetic studies.

Intelligence-led crime scene processing. Part I : Forensic intelligence.

Forensic science is generally defined as the application of science to address questions related to the law. Too often, this view restricts the contribution of science to one single process which eventually aims at bringing individuals to court while minimising risk of miscarriage of justice. In order to go beyond this paradigm, we propose to refocus the attention towards traces themselves, as remnants of a criminal activity, and their information content. We postulate that traces contribute effectively to a wide variety of other informational processes that support decision making inmany situations. In particular, they inform actors of new policing strategies who place the treatment of information and intelligence at the centre of their systems. This contribution of forensic science to these security oriented models is still not well identified and captured. In order to create the best condition for the development of forensic intelligence, we suggest a framework that connects forensic science to intelligence-led policing (part I). Crime scene attendance and processing can be envisaged within this view. This approach gives indications abouthowto structure knowledge used by crime scene examiners in their effective practice (part II).