A Comparison Of Forecasting Procedures For Macroeconomic Series: The Contribution Of Structural Break Models

This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the parameters defining the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. However, we find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling OLS forecasts perform well.

Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs

This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of Bayesian VARs for forecasting, even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large. In such cases, factor methods have been traditionally used but recent work using a particular prior suggests that Bayesian VAR methods can forecast better. In this paper, we consider a range of alternative priors which have been used with small VARs, discuss the issues which arise when they are used with medium and large VARs and examine their forecast performance using a US macroeconomic data set containing 168 variables. We nd that Bayesian VARs do tend to forecast better than factor methods and provide an extensive comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. Our empirical results show the importance of using forecast metrics which use the entire predictive density, instead of using only point forecasts.

Social capital formation across space: proximity and trust in European regions

An extensive economics and regional science literature has discussed the importance of social capital for economic growth and development. Yet, what social capital is and how it is formed are elusive issues, which require further investigation. Here, we refer to social capital in terms of civic capital and good culture , as rephrased by Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales (2010) and Tabellini (2010). The accumulation of this kind of capital allows the emerging of regional informal institutions, which may help explaining diff erences in regional development. In this paper, we take a regional perspective and use exploratory space and space-time methods to assess whether geography, via proximity, contributes to the formation of social capital across European regions. In particular, we ask whether generalized trust, a fundamental constituent of social capital and an ingredient of economic development, tends to be clustered across space and over time. From the policy standpoint, the spatial hysteresis of regional trust may contribute to the formation of spatial traps of social capital and act as a further barrier to regional economic development and convergence.

Trade Costs, International Competition and Selection: The Effects of Unionisation on Market Size

Within a two-country model of international trade in which heterogeneous firms face firm-specific unions, we study the effects of different forms of trade liberalisation on market structure and competitive selection in the presence of inter-country asymmetries in size and labour market institutions. For given levels of trade openness, an increase in a country’s relative unions’ strength reduces the average productivity of its domestic producers but increases that of its exporters. Whilst an unfavourable union power differential, by increasing wages, weakens a country’s firms’ competitive position, the higher wages reinforce standard market access mechanisms to give rise to aggregate income effects. When the initial levels of trade openness are sufficiently low, this ‘expansionary’ aggregate effect can attract industry in the country with stronger unions and also result in an increase in the extensive margin of exports. For sufficiently large inter-country differences in the bargaining power of unions, trade liberalization can then result in a pro-variety effect, with an increase in the total availability of varieties to consumers in both countries, regardless of there being inter-country differences in size.

The neotropical biting midges related to Culicoides paraensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

Culicoides paraensis (Goeldi), a common and widespread American bloodsucking midge that has been incriminated in the transmission of Mansonellosis and Oropouche Fever of humans in South America, is redescribed and figured. All published records are listed and new distribution is based on examination of extensive collections from throughout its range. Three closely related species of the subgenus Haematomyidium that have been confused with C. paraensis are briefly redescribed and figured, and a key is presented for their identification.

Mafia in the ballot box

We study the impact of organized crime on electoral competition. Assuming that the mafia is able to bring votes to the supported party in exchange of money, we show that (i) the strongest party is willing to pay the highest price to secure mafia services; (ii) the volume of electoral trade with the mafia increases with political competition and with the efficiency of the mafia. Studying in detail parliamentary elections in Sicily for the period 1946- 1992, we document the significant support given by the Sicilian Mafia to the Christian Democratic party, starting at least from the 1970s. This is consistent with our theoretical predictions, as political competition became much tighter during the 1970s and the Sicilian mafia experienced an extensive centralization process towards the end of the 1960s, which increased substantially its control of the territory. We also provide evidence that in exchange for its electoral support the mafia got economic advantages for its activities in the construction industry.

Pharmacokinetic drug interaction potential of risperidone with cytochrome p450 isozymes as assessed by the dextromethorphan, the caffeine, and the mephenytoin test.

Two published case reports showed that addition of risperidone (1 and 2 mg/d) to a clozapine treatment resulted in a strong increase of clozapine plasma levels. As clozapine is metabolized by cytochrome P450 isozymes, a study was initiated to assess the in vivo interaction potential of risperidone on various cytochrome P450 isozymes. Eight patients were phenotyped with dextromethorphan (CYP2D6), mephenytoin (CYP2C19), and caffeine (CYP1A2) before and after the introduction of risperidone. Before risperidone, all eight patients were phenotyped as being extensive metabolizers of CYP2D6 and CYP2C19. Risperidone at dosages between 2 and 6 mg/d does not appear to significantly inhibit CYP1A2 and CYP2C19 in vivo (median plasma paraxanthine/caffeine ratios before and after risperidone: 0.65, 0.69; p = 0.89; median urinary (S)/(R) mephenytoin ratios before and after risperidone:0.11, 0.12; p = 0.75). Although dextromethorphan metabolic ratio is significantly increased by risperidone (median urinary dextromethorphan/dextrorphan ratios before and after risperidone: 0.010, 0.018; p = 0.042), risperidone can be considered a weak in vivo CYP2D6 inhibitor, as this increase is modest and none of the eight patients was changed from an extensive to a poor metabolizer. The reported increase of clozapine concentrations by risperidone can therefore not be explained by an inhibition of CYP1A2, CYP2D6, CYP2C19 or by any combination of the three.

Ramaderia extensiva com a eina de prevenció d'incendis i gestió del paisatge a Matadepera (Vallès Occidental)

Aquest es un estudi de la contribució d’un ramat mixt d’oví i cabrum a la gestió de les masses forestals per a la prevenció d’incendis al municipi de Matadepera. L’avaluació de l’acció del ramat s’ha efectuat mitjançant un estudi integrat a traves del coneixement local i l’estudi ecològic de les zones pasturades. La ramaderia extensiva i especialment els ramats d’ovelles i cabres han contribuït durant segles a la neteja del sotabosc mitjançant l’aprofitament productiu d’aquestes zones, per tant no es quelcom nou, sinó un reconeixement als serveis ecològics no productius de la ramaderia extensiva i com aquesta es eficaç en la prevenció d’incendis forestals.

Correlation of tumor-associated antigens MAGE, NY-ESO-1 and P53 expression with clinical and pathological relationships of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma

Despite advances in the diagnosisand treatment of head and neck cancer,survival rates have not improvedover recent years. New therapeuticstrategies, including immunotherapy,are the subject of extensive research.In several types of tumors, the presenceof tumor infiltrating lymphocytes(TILs), notably CD8+ T cellsand dendritic cells, has been correlatedwith improved prognosis. Moreover,some T cells among TILs havebeen shown to kill tumor cells in vitroupon recognition of tumor-associatedantigens. Tumor associated antigensare expressed in a significant proportionof squamous cell carcinoma ofthe head and neck and apparently mayplay a role in the regulation of cancercell growth notably by inhibition ofp53 protein function in some cancers.The MAGE family CT antigens couldtherefore potentially be used as definedtargets for immunotherapy andtheir study bring new insight in tumorgrowth regulation mechanisms. Between1995 - 2005 54 patients weretreated surgically in our institution forsquamous cell carcinoma of the oralcavity. Patient and clinical data wasobtained from patient files and collectedinto a computerized database.For each patient, paraffin embeddedtumor specimens were retrieved andexpression of MAGE CT antigens,p53, NY-OESO-1 were analyzed byimmunohistochemistry. Results werethen correlated with histopathologicalparameter such as tumor depth,front invasion according to Bryne andboth, local control and disease freesurvival. MAGE-A was expressed in52% of patients. NY-ESO-1 and p53expression was found in 7% and 52%cases respectively. A higher tumordepth was significantly correlatedwith expression of MAGE-Aproteins(p = 0.03). No significant correlationcould be made between the expressionof both p53 andNY-OESO-1 andhistopathological parameters. Expressionof tumor-associated antigendid not seem to impact significantlyon patient prognosis. As does thedemonstration of p53 function inhibitionby CT antigens of MAGE family,our results suggest, that tumor associatedantigens may be implicated in tumorprogression mechanisms. Thishypothesis need further investigationto clarify the relationship betweenhost immune response and local tumorbiology.

Differentiation of rat striatal embryonic stem cells in vitro: monolayer culture vs. three-dimensional coculture with differentiated brain cells.

Several groups have demonstrated the existence of self-renewing stem cells in embryonic and adult mouse brain. In vitro, these cells proliferate in response to epidermal growth factor, forming clusters of nestin-positive cells that may be dissociated and subcultured repetitively. Here we show that, in stem cell clusters derived from rat embryonic striatum, cell proliferation decreased with increasing number of passages and in response to elevated concentrations of potassium (30 mM KCl). In monolayer culture, the appearance of microtubule-associated protein type-5-immunoreactive (MAP-5(+)) cells (presumptive neurons) in response to basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) was reduced at low cell density and with increasing number of passages. In the presence of bFGF, elevated potassium caused a more differentiated neuronal phenotype, characterized by an increased proportion of MAP-5(+) cells, extensive neuritic branching, and higher specific activity of glutamic acid decarboxylase. Dissociated stem cells were able to invade cultured brain cell aggregates containing different proportions of neurons and glial cells, whereas they required the presence of a considerable proportion of glial cells in the host cultures to become neurofilament H-positive. The latter observation supports the view that astrocyte-derived factors influence early differentiation of the neuronal cell lineage.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Estudi de noves tècniques per a l'eradicació de l'Arundo donax

El present estudi proposa millores en les tècniques d’eradicació de l’Arundo donax utilitzades actualment. Per tal de realitzar-lo s’ha fet un extens recull bibliogràfic i d’experiències en l’eradicació de la canya avaluant els impactes al medi que exerceix cada una d’elles i estudiant-ne la viabilitat o no. Es tracta d’una petita experiència que serveix per sumar esforços en el complicat repte de l’eradicació de la canya als llocs on ha estat introduïda.

Politicians in the Media: Determinants of Legislators' Presence and Prominence in Swiss Newspapers

In times of increasing "mediatization" of politics, when voters and their elected representatives primarily communicate through the media, the question of who gets into the news and why becomes of the utmost importance. This article examines the determinants of Swiss legislators' presence and prominence in the print media by focusing on three competing approaches drawn from communication studies. The first approach regards the media as a "mirror" of political reality and argues that the media focus on the most active deputies in parliament. Second, news values theory predicts that "authoritative" politicians in leadership positions get the most media coverage. Third, theories of "news bias" hold that the media privilege legislators who are in line with their own editorial interests. Overall, the statistical analyses show an important leadership effect and provide strong support for the second explanation. While deputies in official functions get the most extensive news coverage, media access can also be won by parliamentary activity. The least support is shown for the news bias theory, although some newspapers try to localize parliamentary news coverage by focusing on deputies from their own media market.

Etat fébrile et Hépatosplénomégalie chez une femme de 25 ans: approche diagnostique [A 25-year-old woman with fever and hepatosplenomegaly: diagnostic approach]

We proceeded to an extensive etiologic search in a young women with a hepatosplenomegaly and a chronic persistent fever. We discuss the differential diagnosis of this situation with a final diagnosis of sarcoidosis.

ABCB1 and cytochrome P450 polymorphisms: clinical pharmacogenetics of clozapine.

To examine the genetic factors influencing clozapine kinetics in vivo, 75 patients treated with clozapine were genotyped for CYPs and ABCB1 polymorphisms and phenotyped for CYP1A2 and CYP3A activity. CYP1A2 activity and dose-corrected trough steady-state plasma concentrations of clozapine correlated significantly (r = -0.61; P = 1 x 10), with no influence of the CYP1A2*1F genotype (P = 0.38). CYP2C19 poor metabolizers (*2/*2 genotype) had 2.3-fold higher (P = 0.036) clozapine concentrations than the extensive metabolizers (non-*2/*2). In patients comedicated with fluvoxamine, a strong CYP1A2 inhibitor, clozapine and norclozapine concentrations correlate with CYP3A activity (r = 0.44, P = 0.075; r = 0.63, P = 0.007, respectively). Carriers of the ABCB1 3435TT genotype had a 1.6-fold higher clozapine plasma concentrations than noncarriers (P = 0.046). In conclusion, this study has shown for the first time a significant in vivo role of CYP2C19 and the P-gp transporter in the pharmacokinetics of clozapine. CYP1A2 is the main CYP isoform involved in clozapine metabolism, with CYP2C19 contributing moderately, and CYP3A4 contributing only in patients with reduced CYP1A2 activity. In addition, ABCB1, but not CYP2B6, CYP2C9, CYP2D6, CYP3A5, nor CYP3A7 polymorphisms, influence clozapine pharmacokinetics.