Resource allocation in two species systems: Is it worth acknowledging species interactions?

It is becoming increasingly popular to consider species interactions when managing ecological foodwebs. Such an approach is useful in determining how management can affect multiple species, with either beneficial or detrimental consequences. Identifying such actions is particularly valuable in the context of conservation decision making as funding is severely limited. This paper outlines a new approach that simplifies the resource allocation problem in a two species system for a range of species interactions: independent, mutualism, predator-prey, and competitive exclusion. We assume that both species are endangered and we do not account for decisions over time. We find that optimal funding allocation is to the conservation of the species with the highest marginal gain in expected probability of survival and that, across all except mutualist interaction types, optimal conservation funding allocation differs between species. Loss in efficiency from ignoring species interactions was most severe in predator-prey systems. The funding problem we address, where an ecosystem includes multiple threatened species, will only become more commonplace as increasing numbers of species worldwide become threatened. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Combining initial segments of lists

We propose a new way to build a combined list from K base lists, each containing N items. A combined list consists of top segments of various sizes from each base list so that the total size of all top segments equals N. A sequence of item requests is processed and the goal is to minimize the total number of misses. That is, we seek to build a combined list that contains all the frequently requested items. We first consider the special case of disjoint base lists. There, we design an efficient algorithm that computes the best combined list for a given sequence of requests. In addition, we develop a randomized online algorithm whose expected number of misses is close to that of the best combined list chosen in hindsight. We prove lower bounds that show that the expected number of misses of our randomized algorithm is close to the optimum. In the presence of duplicate items, we show that computing the best combined list is NP-hard. We show that our algorithms still apply to a linearized notion of loss in this case. We expect that this new way of aggregating lists will find many ranking applications.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

Optimizing preventative maintenance strategies for linear assets

Linear assets are engineering infrastructure, such as pipelines, railway lines, and electricity cables, which span long distances and can be divided into different segments. Optimal management of such assets is critical for asset owners as they normally involve significant capital investment. Currently, Time Based Preventive Maintenance (TBPM) strategies are commonly used in industry to improve the reliability of such assets, as they are easy to implement compared with reliability or risk-based preventive maintenance strategies. Linear assets are normally of large scale and thus their preventive maintenance is costly. Their owners and maintainers are always seeking to optimize their TBPM outcomes in terms of minimizing total expected costs over a long term involving multiple maintenance cycles. These costs include repair costs, preventive maintenance costs, and production losses. A TBPM strategy defines when Preventive Maintenance (PM) starts, how frequently the PM is conducted and which segments of a linear asset are operated on in each PM action. A number of factors such as required minimal mission time, customer satisfaction, human resources, and acceptable risk levels need to be considered when planning such a strategy. However, in current practice, TBPM decisions are often made based on decision makers’ expertise or industrial historical practice, and lack a systematic analysis of the effects of these factors. To address this issue, here we investigate the characteristics of TBPM of linear assets, and develop an effective multiple criteria decision making approach for determining an optimal TBPM strategy. We develop a recursive optimization equation which makes it possible to evaluate the effect of different maintenance options for linear assets, such as the best partitioning of the asset into segments and the maintenance cost per segment.

Efficiency of parallelisation of genetic algorithms in the data analysis context

Most real-life data analysis problems are difficult to solve using exact methods, due to the size of the datasets and the nature of the underlying mechanisms of the system under investigation. As datasets grow even larger, finding the balance between the quality of the approximation and the computing time of the heuristic becomes non-trivial. One solution is to consider parallel methods, and to use the increased computational power to perform a deeper exploration of the solution space in a similar time. It is, however, difficult to estimate a priori whether parallelisation will provide the expected improvement. In this paper we consider a well-known method, genetic algorithms, and evaluate on two distinct problem types the behaviour of the classic and parallel implementations.

Basic personal values underlie and give coherence to political values: A cross national study in 15 countries

Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.

Communication and essentialism: Grounding the shared reality of a social category

Essentialism is an ontological belief that there exists an underlying essence to a category. This article advances and tests in three studies the hypothesis that communication about a social category, and expected or actual mutual validation, promotes essentialism about a social category. In Study 1, people who wrote communications about a social category to their ingroup audiences essentialized it more strongly than those who simply memorized about it. In Study 2, communicators whose messages about a novel social category were more elaborately discussed with a confederate showed a stronger tendency to essentialize it. In Study 3, communicators who elaborately talked about a social category with a naive conversant also essentialized the social category. A meta-analysis of the results supported the hypothesis that communication promotes essentialism. Although essentialism has been discussed primarily in perceptual and cognitive domains, the role of social processes as its antecedent deserves greater attention.

But how do we know they watched it? Adapting to the flipped classroom conundrum

Those who teach film and media need to use screen content to illustrate their subjects. For example, students want illustrations to accompany lectures on film or television genres. Our experience has been that student access to the film and television screen content underpinning a study of genres is not only desirable but is, in fact, crucial for effective teaching and learning outcomes. Not so long ago, a screening during or at the completion of a lecture was the expected method by which educators delivered screen content to illustrate their teaching. Even if student attendance fluctuated from week to week a quick head count confirmed that a certain number of students were physically present. It was assumed that this physical attendance encouraged students to reflect upon and contextualize the material post lecture. While simply attending a lecture will not translate into actual student learning, it does demonstrate a willingness by students to engage with the course content by making a commitment to attend a scheduled and recurring lecture and screening program. However, as flipped classroom models gain acceptance in educational institutions, this traditional lecture-screening model is giving way to online, off-site, and student-controlled mechanisms for screen content delivery and viewing. Nevertheless, care should be taken when assessing how online delivery translates into student engagement and learning. As Junco (2012) points out, “it’s not the technology that generates learning, but the ways in which the technology are used.” Discussed, debated, and embraced to varying degrees by educators, there remains no definitive model for the flipped classroom – although many models involve ‘flipping’ content and knowledge acquisition (including viewing films and television shows) from scheduled on-campus classes to online material viewed by students in advance of an on-campus lecture or class. The classroom or tutorial room then becomes a space to problem-solve, engage in collaborate learning, and advance and explain concepts. From an institutional perspective, the flipped classroom model could deliver an additional benefit beyond immediate pedagogical concerns. Tucker (2012) suggests through the flipped classroom model “all aspects of instruction can be rethought to best maximize the scarcest learning resource — time.” The narrative most often associated with this shift is that the move to online content delivery of lecture and cinematic / televisual material may also provide educators with more time to do other work such as engage in research, plan strategies to empower students. Experimentation with the flipped classroom model is playing out in various educational institutions. Yet several core concerns remain — one of these concerns is the crucial question of whether an online/digital flipped approach is more effective for student engagement and learning than the traditional lecture-screening mode for screen content delivery. Some urge caution in this regard, arguing that “new technology isn’t always supported by change management and professional development to ensure that digital isn’t just a goal within itself, but actually helps to transform education” (Fleming cited in Blain 2014). The most fundamental concern remains how do lecturers, instructors, and tutors know students have watched the films and television shows associated with a subject? The remainder of this discussion deals with these concerns, and possible solutions offered, through an analysis of the Film, Television and Screen Genres subject at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) in Brisbane, Queensland.

Partisipasi masyarakat dalam pengayaan koleksi elektronik warisan dokumenter

This paper discusses documentary heritage collection enrichment programs run with community participation. Two library programs at the State Library of Queensland (SLQ) are explored as examples. The programs are the Flood and Cyclone Mosaic and Pitch in! The challenges for the implementation of such programs in Indonesia are also discussed in the last section of the paper. This paper provides better understanding of documentary heritage collection enrichment strategies conducted by a public library in Queensland, Australia. It is expected that this paper will inspire public libraries in Indonesia to maximise their documentary collection enrichment strategies with community participation. This paper can also help the National Library of Indonesia (PNRI) in designing their documentary heritage collections enrichment strategies in its role as the Web portal provider of the national documentary heritage repository. Tulisan ini membahas program pengayaan koleksi warisan dokumenter yang dilaksanakan dengan partisipasi masyarakat. Dua program perpustakaan di the State Library of Queensland (SLQ) dieksplorasi sebagai contoh. Program-program yang dibahas adalah Flood and Cyclone Mosaic dan Pitch In! Tantangan yang harus dihadapi untuk penerapan program semacam di Indonesia juga dibahas di bagian akhir tulisan. Tulisan ini memberikan pemahaman mengenai strategi pengayaan koleksi warisan dokumenter yang dilakukan oleh sebuah perpustakaan umum di Queensland, Australia. Diharapkan tulisan ini dapat menjadi inspirasi bagi perpustakaan umum di Indonesia untuk dapat memaksimalkan strategi pengayaan koleksi dokumenter mereka dengan melibatkan partisipasi masyarakat. Tulisan ini juga dapat membantu Perpustakaan Nasional Republik Indonesia (PNRI) dalam merancang strategi pengayaan koleksi warisan dokumenter mereka dalam perannya sebagai penyedia portal Web repositori warisan dokumenter bangsa.

One step closer into the design of fall protective device for individuals fitted with a bone-anchored prosthesis

The consequences of falls are often dreadful for individuals with lower limb amputation using bone-anchored prosthesis.[1-5] Typically, the impact on the fixation is responsible for bending the intercutaneous piece that could lead to a complete breakage over time. .[3, 5-8] The surgical replacement of this piece is possible but complex and expensive. Clearly, there is a need for solid data enabling an evidence-based design of protective devices limiting impact forces and torsion applied during a fall. The impact on the fixation during an actual fall is obviously difficult to record during a scientific experiment.[6, 8-13] Consequently, Schwartze and colleagues opted for one of the next best options science has to offer: simulation with an able-bodied participant. They recorded body movements and knee impacts on the floor while mimicking several plausible falling scenarios. Then, they calculated the forces and moments that would be applied at four levels along the femur corresponding to amputation heights.[6, 8-11, 14-25] The overall forces applied during the falls were similar regardless of the amputation height indicating that the impact forces were simply translated along the femur. As expected, they showed that overall moments generally increased with amputation height due to changes in lever arm. This work demonstrates that devices preventing only against force overload do not require considering amputation height while those protecting against bending moments should. Another significant contribution is to provide, for the time, the magnitude of the impact load during different falls. This loading range is crucial to the overall design and, more precisely, the triggering threshold of protective devices. Unfortunately, the analysis of only a single able-bodied participant replicating falls limits greatly the generalisation of the findings. Nonetheless, this case study is an important milestone contributing to a better understanding of load impact during a fall. This new knowledge will improve the treatment, the safe ambulation and, ultimately, the quality of life of individuals fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis.

Bone-anchored prosthesis: Evidence that “gains” overcome the “pain”

Most of socket related discomforts leading to a significant decrease in quality of life of individuals with limb amputation can be overcome by surgical techniques enabling bone-anchored prostheses. To date, the OPRA two-stage procedure (i.e., S1, S2) is the most acknowledged treatment. However, surgical implantations of osseointegrated fixations are developing at an unprecedented pace worldwide.[1-18] Clearly, this option is becoming accessible to a wide range of individuals with limb amputations. The team led by Dr Rickard Branemark has published a number of landmark articles each focusing on a particular aspect (e.g., health related quality of life, functional outcomes, bone remodelling, infection rate). [1-3, 19-32] However, evidences presented in this prospective study are remarkable. Functional outcome, health-related quality of life and complications were considered concurrently for a large population (i.e., 51 participants) over an extended period of time (i.e., up to year follow up). Therefore, the “gain” and “pain” of the whole procedure were truly contrasted for the first time. The results confirmed that OPRA surgical and rehabilitation procedures improved significantly prosthetic use, mobility, global situation and fewer problems. Furthermore, the authors reported 47 episodes of infections for 63% (32) participants between post-op S1 and two years follow up. A total of 87% (41) were superficial infections recorded for 28 participants between post-op S2 and two years follow up, while 13% (6) were deep infections occurring for 4 participants during post-op S1 and S2. As expected, post-op S2 phase was the most prone to both infections. More importantly, the vast majority of infections were effectively treated with oral antibiotics. Clearly, this study provided definitive evidence that the benefits of OPRA fixation overcome complications. This article is also establishing reporting standards and benchmark data for future studies focusing on bone-anchored prostheses.

Achieving intention-centric BPM through automated planning

As a result of the more distributed nature of organisations and the inherently increasing complexity of their business processes, a significant effort is required for the specification and verification of those processes. The composition of the activities into a business process that accomplishes a specific organisational goal has primarily been a manual task. Automated planning is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) in which activities are selected and organised by anticipating their expected outcomes with the aim of achieving some goal. As such, automated planning would seem to be a natural fit to the BPM domain to automate the specification of control flow. A number of attempts have been made to apply automated planning to the business process and service composition domain in different stages of the BPM lifecycle. However, a unified adoption of these techniques throughout the BPM lifecycle is missing. As such, we propose a new intention-centric BPM paradigm, which aims on minimising the specification effort by exploiting automated planning techniques to achieve a pre-stated goal. This paper provides a vision on the future possibilities of enhancing BPM using automated planning. A research agenda is presented, which provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges for the exploitation of automated planning in BPM.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Beyond Moa's Ark and Wallace's Line: extralimital distribution of new species of Austronothrus (Acari, Oribatida, Crotoniidae) and the endemicity of the New Zealand oribatid mite fauna

The genus Austronothrus was previously known from three species recorded only from New Zealand. Austronothrus kinabalu sp. nov. is described from Sabah, Borneo and A. rostralis sp. nov. from Norfolk Island, south-west Pacific. A key to Austronothrus is included. These new species extend the distribution of Austronothrus beyond New Zealand and confirms that the subfamily Crotoniinae is not confined to former Gondwanan landmasses. The distribution pattern of Austronothrus spp., combining Oriental and Gondwanan localities, is indicative of a curved, linear track; consistent with the accretion of island arcs and volcanic terranes around the plate margins of the Pacific Ocean, with older taxa persisting on younger island though localised dispersal within island arc metapopulations. Phylogenetic analysis and an area cladogram are consistent with a broad ancestral distribution of Austronothrus in the Oriental region and on Gondwanan terranes, with subsequent divergence and distribution southward from the Sunda region to New Zealand. This pattern is more complex than might be expected if the New Zealand oribatid fauna was derived from dispersal following re-emergence of land after inundation during the Oligocene (25 mya), as well as if the fauna emanated from endemic, relictual taxa following separation of New Zealand from Gondwana during the Cretaceous (80 mya).