A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of clinical features and drug therapies among European and Latin American patients with juvenile dermatomyositis

Objective To compare the demographic features, presenting manifestations, diagnostic investigations, disease course, and drug therapies of children with juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM) followed in Europe and Latin America. Methods Patients were inception cohorts seen between 1980 and 2004 in 27 paediatric rheumatology centres. The following information was collected through the review of patient charts: sex; age at disease onset; date of disease onset and diagnosis; onset type; presenting clinical features; diagnostic investigations; course type; and medications received during disease course. Results Four hundred and ninety patients (65.5% females, mean onset age 7.0 years, mean disease duration 7.7 years) were included. Disease presentation was acute or insidious in 57.1% and 42.9% of the patients, respectively. The course type was monophasic in 41.3% of patients and chronic polycyclic or continuous in 58.6% of patients. The more common presenting manifestations were muscle weakness (84.9%), Gottron`s papules (72.9%), heliotrope rash (62%), and malar rash (56.7%). Overall, the demographic and clinical features of the 2 continental cohorts were comparable. European patients received more frequently high-dose intravenous methylprednisolone, cyclosporine, cyclophosphamide, and azathioprine, while methotrexate and antimalarials medications were used more commonly by Latin American physicians. Conclusion The demographic and clinical characteristics of JDM are similar in European and Latin American patients. We found, however, several differences in the use of medications between European and Latin American paediatric rheumatologists.

The Provisional Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism disease activity core set for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis: A prospective validation study

Objective. To validate a core set of outcome measures for the evaluation of response to treatment in patients with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM). Methods. In 2001, a preliminary consensus-derived core set for evaluating response to therapy in juvenile DM was established. In the present study, the core set was validated through an evidence-based, large-scale data collection that led to the enrollment of 294 patients from 36 countries. Consecutive patients with active disease were assessed at baseline and after 6 months. The validation procedures included assessment of feasibility, responsiveness, discriminant and construct ability, concordce in the evaluation of response to therapy between physicians and parents, redundancy, internal consistency, and ability to predict a therapeutic response. Results. The following clinical measures were found to be feasible, and to have good construct validity, discriminative ability, and internal consistency; furthermore, they were not redundant, proved responsive to clinically important changes in disease activity, and were associated strongly with treatment outcome and thus were included in the final core set: 1) physician`s global assessment of disease activity, 2) muscle strength, 3) global disease activity measure, 4) parent`s global assessment of patient`s well-being, 5) functional ability, and 6) health-related quality of life. Conclusion. The members of the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation, with the endorsement of the American College of Rheumatology and the European Leauge Against Rheumatism, propose a core set of criteria for the evaluation of response of therapy that is scientifically and clinically relevant and statistically validated. The core set will help standardize the conduct and reporting of clinical trials and assist practitioners in deciding whether a child with juvenile DM has responded adequately to therapy.

A Survey of Diseases in Passeriform Birds Obtained From Illegal Wildlife Trade in Sao Paulo City, Brazil

The order Passeriformes comprises the largest number of families and species of birds of any avian order. Brazil is rich in passerine birds, which are a common victim of wildlife trafficking in Brazil. Annually, many birds die as a consequence of illegal trade. To investigate the occurrence of the principle diseases and to identify the main causes of death in smuggled passerine birds, the cause of death was evaluated in 360 passerine birds confiscated within the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Causes of death were determined by anatomopathologic and microbiologic studies. Infectious diseases were the cause of death of most birds, which corresponded to 78.6% of cases. The most common infectious diseases were poxvirus infection, aspergillosis, and coccidiosis. Although the etiologic agents of these diseases can coexist asymptomatically within hosts, once the host`s immunity is compromised, the pathogen multiplies quickly and causes disease. The results of this study may help to improve the care of passerine birds in captivity and increase the survival rate of confiscated birds. Results may also be useful for in situ conservation programs that investigate the reintroduction of confiscated species or captive birds.