Project time risk analysis through simulation

An inherent weakness in the management of large scale projects is the failure to achieve the scheduled completion date. When projects are planned with the objective of time achievement, the initial planning plays a vital role in the successful achievement of project deadlines. Cost and quality are additional priorities when such projects are being executed. This article proposes a methodology for achieving time duration of a project through risk analysis with the application of a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The methodology is demonstrated using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline construction project.

Lexical database enrichment through semi-automated morphological analysis

Derivational morphology proposes meaningful connections between words and is largely unrepresented in lexical databases. This thesis presents a project to enrich a lexical database with morphological links and to evaluate their contribution to disambiguation. A lexical database with sense distinctions was required. WordNet was chosen because of its free availability and widespread use. Its suitability was assessed through critical evaluation with respect to specifications and criticisms, using a transparent, extensible model. The identification of serious shortcomings suggested a portable enrichment methodology, applicable to alternative resources. Although 40% of the most frequent words are prepositions, they have been largely ignored by computational linguists, so addition of prepositions was also required. The preferred approach to morphological enrichment was to infer relations from phenomena discovered algorithmically. Both existing databases and existing algorithms can capture regular morphological relations, but cannot capture exceptions correctly; neither of them provide any semantic information. Some morphological analysis algorithms are subject to the fallacy that morphological analysis can be performed simply by segmentation. Morphological rules, grounded in observation and etymology, govern associations between and attachment of suffixes and contribute to defining the meaning of morphological relationships. Specifying character substitutions circumvents the segmentation fallacy. Morphological rules are prone to undergeneration, minimised through a variable lexical validity requirement, and overgeneration, minimised by rule reformulation and restricting monosyllabic output. Rules take into account the morphology of ancestor languages through co-occurrences of morphological patterns. Multiple rules applicable to an input suffix need their precedence established. The resistance of prefixations to segmentation has been addressed by identifying linking vowel exceptions and irregular prefixes. The automatic affix discovery algorithm applies heuristics to identify meaningful affixes and is combined with morphological rules into a hybrid model, fed only with empirical data, collected without supervision. Further algorithms apply the rules optimally to automatically pre-identified suffixes and break words into their component morphemes. To handle exceptions, stoplists were created in response to initial errors and fed back into the model through iterative development, leading to 100% precision, contestable only on lexicographic criteria. Stoplist length is minimised by special treatment of monosyllables and reformulation of rules. 96% of words and phrases are analysed. 218,802 directed derivational links have been encoded in the lexicon rather than the wordnet component of the model because the lexicon provides the optimal clustering of word senses. Both links and analyser are portable to an alternative lexicon. The evaluation uses the extended gloss overlaps disambiguation algorithm. The enriched model outperformed WordNet in terms of recall without loss of precision. Failure of all experiments to outperform disambiguation by frequency reflects on WordNet sense distinctions.

Maintenance strategies affecting equipment performance

Proper maintenance of plant items is crucial for the safe and profitable operation of process plants, The relevant maintenance policies fall into the following four categories: (i) preventivejopportunistic/breakdown replacement policies, (ii) inspection/inspection-repair-replacernent policies, (iii) restorative maintenance policies, and (iv) condition based maintenance policies, For correlating failure times of component equipnent and complete systems, the Weibull failure distribution has been used, A new powerful method, SEQLIM, has been proposed for the estimation of the Weibull parameters; particularly, when maintenance records contain very few failures and many successful operation times. When a system consists of a number of replaceable, ageing components, an opporturistic replacernent policy has been found to be cost-effective, A simple opportunistic rrodel has been developed. Inspection models with various objective functions have been investigated, It was found that, on the assumption of a negative exponential failure distribution, all models converge to the same optimal inspection interval; provided the safety components are very reliable and the demand rate is low, When deterioration becomes a contributory factor to same failures, periodic inspections, calculated from above models, are too frequent, A case of safety trip systems has been studied, A highly effective restorative maintenance policy can be developed if the performance of the equipment under this category can be related to some predictive modelling. A novel fouling model has been proposed to determine cleaning strategies of condensers, Condition-based maintenance policies have been investigated. A simple gauge has been designed for condition monitoring of relief valve springs. A typical case of an exothermic inert gas generation plant has been studied, to demonstrate how various policies can be applied to devise overall maintenance actions.

Improving returnable transport equipment management with an autonomous approach

Challenges of returnable transport equipment (RTE) management continue to heighten as the popularity of their usage magnifies. Logistics companies are investigating the implementation of radio-frequency identification (RFID) technology to alleviate problems such as loss prevention and stock reduction. However, the research within this field is limited and fails to fully explore with depth, the wider network improvements that can be made to optimize the supply chain through efficient RTE management. This paper, investigates the nature of RTE network management building on current research and practices, filling a gap in the literature, through the investigation of a product-centric approach where the paradigms of “intelligent products” and “autonomous objects” are explored. A network optimizing approach with RTE management is explored, encouraging advanced research development of the RTE paradigm to align academic research with problematic areas in industry. Further research continues with the development of an agent-based software system, ready for application to a real-case study distribution network, producing quantitative results for further analysis. This is pivotal on the endeavor to developing agile support systems, fully utilizing an information-centric environment and encouraging RTE to be viewed as critical network optimizing tools rather than costly waste.

Reliability:its implications in production systems design

Research on production systems design has in recent years tended to concentrate on ‘software’ factors such as organisational aspects, work design, and the planning of the production operations. In contrast, relatively little attention has been paid to maximising the contributions made by fixed assets, particularly machines and equipment. However, as the cost of unproductive machine time has increased, reliability, particularly of machine tools, has become ever more important. Reliability theory and research has traditionally been based in the main on electrical and electronic equipment whereas mechanical devices, especially machine tools, have not received sufficiently objective treatment. A recently completed research project has considered the reliability of machine tools by taking sample surveys of purchasers, maintainers and manufacturers. Breakdown data were also collected from a number of engineering companies and analysed using both manual and computer techniques. Results obtained have provided an indication of those factors most likely to influence reliability and which in turn could lead to improved design and selection of machine tool systems. Statistical analysis of long-term field data has revealed patterns of trends of failure which could help in the design of more meaningful maintenance schemes.

An analysis of the effectiveness of a behavioural based safety intervention in a UK paper mill

This research examines a behavioural based safety (BBS) intervention within a paper mill in the South East of England. Further to this intervention two other mills are examined for the purposes of comparison — one an established BBS programme and the other an improving safety management system through management ownership. BBS programmes have become popular within the UK, but most of the research about their efficacy is carried out by the BBS providers themselves. This thesis aims to evaluate a BBS intervention from a standpoint which is not commercially biased in favour of BBS schemes. The aim of a BBS scheme is to either change personnel behaviours or attitudes, which in turn will positively affect the organisation's safety culture. The research framework involved a qualitative methodology in order to examine the effects of the intervention on the paper mill's safety culture. The techniques used were questionnaires and semi structured interviews, in addition to observation and discussions which were possible because of the author's position as participant observer. The results demonstrated a failure to improve any aspect of the mill's safety culture, which worsened following the BBS intervention. Issues such as trust, morale, communication and support of management showed significant signs of negative workforce response. The paper mill where the safety management system approach was utilised demonstrated a significantly improved safety culture and achieved site ownership from middle managers and supervisors. Research has demonstrated that a solid foundation is required prior to successfully implementing a BBS programme. For a programme to work there must be middle management support in addition to senior management commitment. If a trade union actively distances itself from BBS, it is also unlikely to be effective. This thesis proposes that BBS observation programmes are not suitable for the papermaking industry, particularly when staffing levels are low due to challenging economic conditions. Observers are not available when there are high hazard situations and this suggests that BBS implementation is not the correct intervention for the paper industry.

Perceptions of technological change : the attitude of managers towards group technology in the United States food equipment industry

In the center of today's continued and rapid technological change and ever competitive environment of the next millennium, manufacturers must realize that unless they are ready to consider and evaluate new technologies brought onto them, they may fail to adequately respond to the challenges that lie ahead of them. This research was designed to determine the consistency of the perceptions of technical and non-technical administrators, in manufacturing environment, towards technological change and group technology as an advanced manufacturing system. This research has included a review of literature with references to technological change, justification and implementation processes, and various manufacturing systems including group technology and its benefits. This research has used the research method of empirical analysis (quantitative) and case studies (qualitative) to research perceptions of technical and non-technical administrators towards technological change and group technology. Sixty-four (64) technical and fifty-one (51) nontechnical administrators from fifty (50) manufacturing organizations in the United States of America responded to the mail survey questionnaire used in this research. Responses were analyzed using the Repeated Measures ANOVA procedure to compare mean responses of each group. Two correlation analyses, Cronback Coefficient Alpha and Pearson Correlation Coefficient, were also performed to determine the reliability of the questionnaire as well as the degree of correlation of perceptions between these two groups. This research, through the empirical analysis, has found that perceptions of the technical and non-technical administrators towards group technology were not consistent. In other words, they did not perceive the benefits of group technology in the same manner to the overall organizational performance. This finding was significant since it provided the first clear and comprehensive view of the technical and non-technical administrators' perception towards group technology and technological change, in Food Equipment Manufacturer Industry, in United States of America. In addition, a number of cases were analyzed and the results have supported those of the quantitative analysis. Therefore, this research not only has provided basic data, which was unavailable prior to this investigation, but it also provided a basis for future studies.

Brush plating of bearing alloys on aluminium alloy shells

The turbocharging of diesel engines has led to increase in temperature, load and corrosive attack of plain bearings. To meet these requirements, overlay plated aluminium alloys are now preferred. Currently, lead-tin alloys are deposited using a zincate layer and nickel strike, as intermediate stages in the process. The nickel has undesirable seizure characteristics and the zincate can given rise to corrosion problems. Consequently, brush plating allows the possible elimination of these stages and a decrease in process together with greater automation. The effect of mode application, on the formation of zincate films, using film growth weight measurements, potential-time studies, peel adhesion testing and Scanning Electron Microscopy was studied, for both SIC and AS15 aluminium alloys. The direct plating of aluminium was also successfully achieved. The results obtained indicate that generally, although lower adhesion resulted when a brush technique was used, satisfactory adhesion for fatigue testing was achieved. Both lead-tin and tin-cobalt overlays were examined and a study of the parameters governing brush plating were carried out using various electrolytes. An experimentally developed small scale rig, was used to produce overlay plated bearings that were fatigue tested until failure. The bearings were then examined and an analysis of the failure mechanisms undertaken. The results indicated that both alloy systems are of the regular codeposition type. Tin-cobalt overlays were superior to conventional lead-tin overlays and remained in good condition, although the lining (substrate) failed. Brush plated lead-tin was unsatisfactory. Sufficient understanding has now been gained, to enable a larger scale automated plant to be produced. This will allow a further study of the technique to be carried out, on equipment that more closely resembles that of a full scale production process.

Elastic-plastic analysis of complete building structures

In this Thesis, details of a proposed method for the elastic-plastic failure load analysis of complete building structures are given. In order to handle the problem, a computer programme in Atlas Autocode is produced. The structures consist of a number of parallel shear walls and intermediate frames connected by floor slabs. The results of an experimental investigation are given to verify the theoretical results and to demonstrate various factors that may influence the behaviour of these structures. Large full scale practical structures are also analysed by the proposed method and suggestions are made for achieving design economy as well as for extending research in various aspects of this field. The existing programme for elastic-plastic analysis of large frames is modified to allow for the effect of composite action of structural members, i.e. reinforced concrete floor slabs and the supporting steel beams. This modified programme is used to analyse some framed type structures with composite action as well as those which incorporate plates and shear walls. The results obtained are studied to ascertain the influence of composite action and other factors on the load carrying capacity of both bare frames and complete building structures. The theoretical failure load presented in this thesis does not predict the overall failure load of the structure nor does it predict the partial failure load of the shear walls and slabs but it merely predicts the partial failure load of a single frame and assumes that the loss of stiffess of such a frame renders the overall structure unusable. For most structures the analysis proposed in this thesis is likely to break down prematurely due to the failure of the slab and shear wall system and this factor must be taken into account in any future work on such structures. The experimental work reported in this thesis is acknowledged to be unsatisfactory as a verification of the limited theory proposed. In particular perspex was not found to be a suitable material for testing at high loads, micro-concrete may be more suitable.

The analysis and prediction of the quantity and composition of household refuse

This thesis describes the development of a simple and accurate method for estimating the quantity and composition of household waste arisings. The method is based on the fundamental tenet that waste arisings can be predicted from information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of households, thus reducing the need for the direct measurement of waste arisings to that necessary for the calibration of a prediction model. The aim of the research is twofold: firstly to investigate the generation of waste arisings at the household level, and secondly to devise a method for supplying information on waste arisings to meet the needs of waste collection and disposal authorities, policy makers at both national and European level and the manufacturers of plant and equipment for waste sorting and treatment. The research was carried out in three phases: theoretical, empirical and analytical. In the theoretical phase specific testable hypotheses were formulated concerning the process of waste generation at the household level. The empirical phase of the research involved an initial questionnaire survey of 1277 households to obtain data on their socio-economic characteristics, and the subsequent sorting of waste arisings from each of the households surveyed. The analytical phase was divided between (a) the testing of the research hypotheses by matching each household's waste against its demographic/socioeconomic characteristics (b) the development of statistical models capable of predicting the waste arisings from an individual household and (c) the development of a practical method for obtaining area-based estimates of waste arisings using readily available data from the national census. The latter method was found to represent a substantial improvement over conventional methods of waste estimation in terms of both accuracy and spatial flexibility. The research therefore represents a substantial contribution both to scientific knowledge of the process of household waste generation, and to the practical management of waste arisings.

Orbit and altimetric corrections for the ERS satellites through analysis of single and dual satellite crossovers

Due to the failure of PRARE the orbital accuracy of ERS-1 is typically 10-15 cm radially as compared to 3-4cm for TOPEX/Poseidon. To gain the most from these simultaneous datasets it is necessary to improve the orbital accuracy of ERS-1 so that it is commensurate with that of TOPEX/Poseidon. For the integration of these two datasets it is also necessary to determine the altimeter and sea state biases for each of the satellites. Several models for the sea state bias of ERS-1 are considered by analysis of the ERS-1 single satellite crossovers. The model adopted consists of the sea state bias as a percentage of the significant wave height, namely 5.95%. The removal of ERS-1 orbit error and recovery of an ERS-1 - TOPEX/Poseidon relative bias are both achieved by analysis of dual crossover residuals. The gravitational field based radial orbit error is modelled by a finite Fourier expansion series with the dominant frequencies determined by analysis of the JGM-2 co-variance matrix. Periodic and secular terms to model the errors due to atmospheric density, solar radiation pressure and initial state vector mis-modelling are also solved for. Validation of the dataset unification consists of comparing the mean sea surface topographies and annual variabilities derived from both the corrected and uncorrected ERS-1 orbits with those derived from TOPEX/Poseidon. The global and regional geographically fixed/variable orbit errors are also analysed pre and post correction, and a significant reduction is noted. Finally the use of dual/single satellite crossovers and repeat pass data, for the calibration of ERS-2 with respect to ERS-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon is shown by calculating the ERS-1/2 sea state and relative biases.

A speech analysis system for use in educational research

This thesis describes work undertaken in order to fulfil a need experienced in the Department of Educational Enquiry at the University of Aston in Birmingham for speech analysis facilities suitable for use in teaching and research work within the Department. The hardware and software developed during the research project provides displays of speech fundamental frequency and intensity in real time. The system is suitable for the provision of visual feedback of these parameters of a subject's speech in a learning situation, and overcomes the inadequacies of equipment currently used for this task in that it provides a clear indication of fundamental frequency contours as the subject is speaking. The thesis considers the use of such equipment in several related fields, and the approaches that have been reported to one of the major problems of speech analysis, namely pitch-period estimation. A number of different systems are described, and their suitability for the present purposes is discussed. Finally, a novel method of pitch-period estimation is developed, and a speech analysis system incorporating this method is described. Comparison is made between the results produced by this system and those produced by a conventional speech spectrograph.

Exporting to Eastern Europe : principles and practice, including a case study of the market for fire fighting equipment

East-West trade has grown rapidly since the sixties, stimulating a parallel expansion in the literature on the subject. An extensive review of this literature shows how: (i) most of the issues involved have at their source the distinctions between East and West in political ideology and/or economic management, and (ii) there has been a tendency to keep theoretical and practical perspectives on the subject too separate. This thesis demonstrates the importance of understanding the fundamental principles implied in the first point, and represents an attempt to bridge the gap identified in the second. A detailed study of the market for fire fighting equipment in Eastern Europe is undertaken in collaboration with a medium-sized company, Angus Fire Armour Limited. Desk research methods are combined with visits to the market to assess the potential for the company's products, and recommendations for future strategy are made. The case demonstrates the scope and limitations of various research methods for the East European market, and a model for market research relevant to all companies is developed. Tne case study highlights three areas largely neglected in the literature: (i) the problems of internal company adaptation to East European conditions; (ii) the division of responsibility between foreign trade organisations; and (iii) bribery and corruption in East-West trade. Further research into the second topic - through a survey of 36 UK exporters - and the third - through analysis of publicised corruption cases - confirms the representativeness of the Angus experience, and reflects on the complexity of the Bast European import process, which does not always function as is commonly supposed. The very complexity of the problems confronting companies reaffirms the need to appreciate the principles underlying the subject, while the detailed analysis into questions of, originally, a marketing nature, reveals wider implications for East-West trade and East-West relations.

Deformation and failure of welded steels used in offshore constructions

Hydrocarbons are the most common form of energy used to date. The activities involving exploration and exploitation of large oil and gas fields are constantly in operation and have extended to such hostile environments as the North Sea. This enforces much greater demands on the materials which are used, and the need for enhancing the endurance of the existing ones which must continue parallel to the explorations. Due to their ease in fabrication, relatively high mechanical properties and low costs, steels are the most widely favoured material for the construction of offshore platforms. The most critical part of an offshore structure prone to failure are the welded nodal joints, particulary those which are used within the vicinity of the splash zones. This is an area of high complex stress concentrations, varying mechanical and metallurgical properties in addition to severe North Sea environmental conditions. The main are of this work has been concerned with the durability studies of this type of steel, based on the concept of the worst case analysis, consisting of combinations of welds of varying qualities, various degrees of stress concentrations and the environmental conditions of stress corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement. The experiments have been designed to reveal significance of defects as sites of crack initiation in the welded steels and the extent to which stress corrosion and hydrogen embrittlement will limit their durability. This has been done for various heat treatments and in some experiments deformation has been forced through the welded zone of the specimens to reveal the mechanical properties of the welds themselves to provide data for finite element simulations. A comparison of the results of these simulations with the actual deformation and fracture behaviour has been done to reveal the extent to which both mechanical and metallurgical factors control behaviour of the steels in the hostile environments of high stress, corrosion, and hydrogen embrittlement at their surface.