Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Endomyocardial fibrosis: pathological and molecular findings of surgically resected ventricular endomyocardium

Endomyocardial fibrosis (EMF) is a restrictive cardiomyopathy of unknown etiology prevalent in tropical regions affecting the inflow tract and apex of one or both ventricles, which show fibrous thickening of the endocardium and adjacent myocardium. Surgical treatment is recommended for patients in functional classes III or IV (New York Heart Association). The gross and histological features of the heart have been comprehensively studied in autopsies, but studies in surgical samples are still lacking. Histological and immunohistochemical features of EMF in surgical samples collected from 32 patients were described and correlated with clinical data. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and reverse transcription-PCR, performed on formalin fixed endomyocardial samples, were used retrospectively to detect genomes of certain cardiotropic viruses and Toxoplasma gondii. Ventricular endocardium was thickened by superficial acellular hyaline collagen fibers type I and III, with predominance of the former type. Besides fibrosis, a chronic inflammatory process and an anomalous lymphatic rich vascular pattern were observed in the deep endocardium, connected to the terminal coronary circulation of the myocardium, which might be an important pathological finding concerning EMF pathogenesis. Molecular analysis of the endomyocardium revealed high incidence of cardiotropic infective agents (6/12, 50%); however, their role in the disease pathogenesis is still controversial.

Alcohol-related traffic accidents with fatal outcomes in the city of Sao Paulo

Aims: The aims of the present study were to characterize fatal traffic accident victims in a major urban center in Brazil and their association with alcohol consumption. Methods: Cross-sectional study of 907 fatal traffic accident victims in Sao Paulo, in 2005. Results: Adult males between the ages of 25 and 54 represented the majority of cases with positive blood alcohol concentrations (BAC). Overall, males had a higher proportional BAC and mean BAC than females. Pedestrians, particularly those with no detectable BAC, were typically older than other victims. Most accidents (total and BAC-positive) happened on weekends between midnight and 6 a.m. Considering all victims, 39.4% were positive (BAC over 0.1 g/l). When only drivers (automobile, motorcycle and bicycle) were evaluated. 42.3% had BAC over the legal limit (0.6 g/l). Conclusions: Alcohol is associated with nearly half of all traffic accident deaths in the city of Sao Paulo. especially for days and times associated with parties and bars (weekends between 12 a.m. and 6 a.m.). (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cataract Remains an Important Cause of Blindness in Campinas, Brazil

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of blindness in the elderly population of Campinas, Brazil, and to describe the coverage and quality of cataract surgery services in the area. Methods: A brief assessment of cataract surgery services (using the RACSS (Rapid Assessment of Cataract Surgical Services Method) was conducted using random cluster sampling, with a sample composed of 60 clusters of 40 people aged 50 years or older. Visual acuity (VA) was measured and the lens status observed by direct visual ophthalmoscopy. From the selected sample of 2,400 subjects, 92.67% were examined. Results: Blindness (VA 3/60 with available correction) was found in 1.98 % (2.03 % among male subjects, and 1.94 % among female subjects). The prevalence of blindness varied with age, from 0.2%, in the group from 50 to 54 years, to 7.2% in those above 80. Cataract was the main cause of blindness (40.2%) followed by suspected posterior segment disorders (18.2%), diabetic retinopathy (15.9%), and glaucoma (11.4%). The cataract surgical coverage was of 93% (VA 3/60) and 82.18% when the criterion was VA 6/60 in the best eye. The main reasons the subjects did not receive surgical treatment were: fear of undergoing surgery, 11.1%; lack of awareness about the condition, 16.7%; waiting for maturity, 16.7%; and contraindication to surgery, 44.4%. Conclusion: Cataract is the major cause of blindness in Campinas. Education on eye diseases, their prevention and treatment must become part of the city`s public healthcare policies.

PREDICTIVE FACTORS FOR GAIT IN FEMORAL TRANSTROCHANTERIC FRACTURES

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify variables that could predict the quality of gait in patients with transtrochanteric femoral fractures after treatment. Materials and Methods: Hospitalized patients diagnosed with transtrochanteric femoral fractures were selected between September/2005 and August/2006 and followed-up for 6 months after the trauma date. An observational prospective study was conducted to assess the quality of gait 3 and 6 months after fracture in 31 patients (13 males and 18 females). The mean age was 76 +/- 2,7. Results: Seven patients (22,6%) passed away during the follow-up period. The patients with associated fractures or with four or more co-morbidities showed a worse quality of gait after 6 months. Patients without orthopaedic complications or who got partial weight load prior to 30 days showed a better performance. Conclusion: The quantification of predictive gait indexes allows us to propose new treatment approaches consistently to the different realities showed by each group of patients.

Seroprevalence of Human Papillomavirus 6, 11, 16, and 18 in Young Primiparous Women in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Introduction: Data on epidemiology of HPV infection are needed for the development of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine recommendations, especially in countries where HPV vaccination is not yet included in public vaccination programs. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of serum antibodies to HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 and associated factors among young women after birth of the first child. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Three hundred one women aged 15 to 24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Seroprevalence was performed using a type-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay based on HPV Late protein 1 viruslike particles. The association of seroreactivity with these 4 HPV types with selected demographic and behavioral factors was assessed by Generalized Linear Model analysis. Results: Fifty-eight (19.3%) women (95% confidence interval, 15.0%-24.2%) had antibodies to any of the 4 viruslike particles tested. The overall seroprevalence rates of the HPV types were: HPV16, 9.0%; HPV18, 7.0%; and HPV 6+11, 7.7%, which are targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, P = 0.044 for trend) and previous sexually transmitted disease (P = 0.008) were 2 factors independently associated with HPV seropositivity. Conclusions: These data offer additional information on the epidemiology of HPV in a group of young Brazilian women after first delivery and contribute to establish a baseline of HPV seroprevalence against which post-HPV vaccine era seroprevalence can be compared.

Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of a Brazilian Portuguese version of the chronic pain grade

To verify the reliability and validity of a Brazilian Portuguese version of the chronic pain grade (CPG-Br). Cultural adaptation was made in accordance with established guidelines, with modifications aiming at improving this process. Adaptations were made based on interviews with 45 chronic pain patients from So Paulo city. Validation was studied by concurrent application of the short-form-36 health survey (SF-36) and other questionnaires to 283 participants with chronic pain from the general population. Temporal stability was verified by a second application to 131 individuals. Factor analysis resulted in a two-factor solution with factors named characteristic pain intensity and activity limitation due to pain. Alpha coefficients of 0.78 and 0.70 and intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.76 and 0.72 for each factor indicated good internal consistency and temporal stability. Significant correlations between CPG-Br and SF-36, Roland-Morris disability questionnaire and neck disability index scores were noted. A consistent linear trend was also observed between pain grades and SF-36 scores. Frequency of use of pain medications and of pain-related medical visits increased with pain grade. This Brazilian Portuguese version of the chronic pain grade, tested on a sample of the Brazilian population, demonstrated good reliability and validity.

Association between a 15q25 gene variant, smoking quantity and tobacco-related cancers among 17 000 individuals

Methods We performed a detailed analysis of one 15q single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) (rs16969968) with smoking behaviour and cancer risk in a total of 17 300 subjects from five LC studies and four upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer studies. Results Subjects with one minor allele smoked on average 0.3 cigarettes per day (CPD) more, whereas subjects with the homozygous minor AA genotype smoked on average 1.2 CPD more than subjects with a GG genotype (P < 0.001). The variant was associated with heavy smoking (> 20 CPD) [odds ratio (OR) = 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.96-1.34, P = 0.13 for heterozygotes and 1.81, 95% CI 1.39-2.35 for homozygotes, P < 0.0001]. The strong association between the variant and LC risk (OR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.23-1.38, P = 1 x 10(-18)), was virtually unchanged after adjusting for this smoking association (smoking adjusted OR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.19-1.35, P = 5 x 10(-13)). Furthermore, we found an association between the variant allele and an earlier age of LC onset (P = 0.02). The association was also noted in UADT cancers (OR = 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.15, P = 0.02). Genome wide association (GWA) analysis of over 300 000 SNPs on 11 219 subjects did not identify any additional variants related to smoking behaviour. Conclusions This study confirms the strong association between 15q gene variants and LC and shows an independent association with smoking quantity, as well as an association with UADT cancers.

Paternal and maternal ages at conception and risk of bipolar affective disorder in their offspring

Background. A consistent association between paternal age and their offspring`s risk of schizophrenia has been observed, with no independent association with maternal age. The relationship of paternal and maternal ages with risk of bipolar affective disorders (BPAD) in the offspring is less clear. The present study aimed at testing the hypothesis that paternal age is associated with their offspring`s risk of BPAD, whereas maternal age is not. Method. This population-based cohort study was conducted with individuals born in Sweden during 1973-1980 and still resident there at age 16 years. Outcome was first hospital admission with a diagnosis of BPAD. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox`s proportional hazard regression. Results. After adjustment for all potential confounding variables except maternal age, the HR for risk of BPAD for each 10-year increase in paternal age was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (Cl) 1.11-1.48], but this fell to 1.20 (95% CI 0.97-1.48) after adjusting for maternal age. A similar result was found for maternal age and risk of BPAD [HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.08-1.56) before adjustment for paternal age, HR 1.12 (95% Cl 0.86-1.45) after adjustment]. The HR associated with having either parent aged 30 years or over was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.57) and it was 1.45 (95%, CI 1.16-1.81) if both parents were >30 years. Conclusions. Unlike schizophrenia, the risk of BPAD seems to be associated with both paternal and maternal ages.

Prevalence of cannabis use in Brazil: Data from the I Brazilian National Alcohol Survey (BNAS)

Aims: To estimate the prevalence of cannabis use in the last 12 months in the Brazilian population and to examine its association with individual and geographic characteristics. Design: Cross-sectional survey with a national probabilistic sample. Participants: 3006 individuals aged 14 to 65 years. Measurements: Questionnaire based on well established instruments, adapted to the Brazilian population. Findings: The 12-month prevalence of cannabis use was 2.1% (95%Cl 1.3-2.9). Male gender, better educational level, unemployment and living in the regions South and Southeast were independently associated with higher 12-month prevalence of cannabis use. Conclusion: While the prevalence of cannabis use in Brazil is lower than in many countries, the profile of those who are more likely to have used it is similar. Educational and prevention policies should be focused on specific population groups. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cessation of alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and the reversal of head and neck cancer risk

Background Quitting tobacco or alcohol use has been reported to reduce the head and neck cancer risk in previous studies. However, it is unclear how many years must pass following cessation of these habits before the risk is reduced, and whether the risk ultimately declines to the level of never smokers or never drinkers. Methods We pooled individual-level data from case-control studies in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Data were available from 13 studies on drinking cessation (9167 cases and 12 593 controls), and from 17 studies on smoking cessation (12 040 cases and 16 884 controls). We estimated the effect of quitting smoking and drinking on the risk of head and neck cancer and its subsites, by calculating odds ratios (ORs) using logistic regression models. Results Quitting tobacco smoking for 1-4 years resulted in a head and neck cancer risk reduction [OR 0.70, confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.81 compared with current smoking], with the risk reduction due to smoking cessation after >= 20 years (OR 0.23, CI 0.18-0.31), reaching the level of never smokers. For alcohol use, a beneficial effect on the risk of head and neck cancer was only observed after >= 20 years of quitting (OR 0.60, CI 0.40-0.89 compared with current drinking), reaching the level of never drinkers. Conclusions Our results support that cessation of tobacco smoking and cessation of alcohol drinking protect against the development of head and neck cancer.

Total Exposure and Exposure Rate Effects for Alcohol and Smoking and Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

Trends in stroke incidence, mortality and case fatality rates in Joinville, Brazil: 1995-2006

Background: Studying stroke rates in a whole community is a rational way to assess the quality of patient care and primary prevention. However, there are few studies of trends in stroke rates worldwide and none in Brazil. Objective: Established study methods were used to define the rates for first ever stroke in a defined population in Brazil compared with similar data obtained and published in 1995. Methods: All stroke cases occurring in the city of Joinville during 2005-2006 were prospectively ascertained. Crude incidence and mortality rates were determined, and age adjusted rates and 30 day case fatality were calculated and compared with the 1995 data. Results: Of the 1323 stroke cases registered, 759 were first ever strokes. The incidence rate per 100 000 was 105.4 (95% CI 98.0 to 113.2), mortality rate was 23.9 (95% CI 20.4 to 27.8) and the 30 day case fatality was 19.1%. Compared with the 1995 data, we found that the incidence had decreased by 27%, mortality decreased by 37% and the 30 day case fatality decreased by 28%. Conclusions: Using defined criteria we showed that in an industrial southern Brazilian city, stroke rates are similar to those from developed countries. A significant decrease in stroke rates over the past decade was also found, suggesting an improvement in primary prevention and inpatient care of stroke patients in Joinville.

Osteoporotic Fractures in the Brazilian Community-Dwelling Elderly: Prevalence and Risk Factors

The risk of osteoporotic fractures is known to vary among populations. There are no studies analyzing concomitantly clinical, densitometric, and lab risk factors in miscigenated community-dwelling population of Brazil. A total of 1007 elderly subjects (600 women and 407 men) from Sao Paulo, were evaluated using a questionnaire that included risk factors for osteoporotic fractures. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the hip and lumbar spine. Laboratory blood tests were also obtained. The prevalence of osteoporotic fractures was 13.2% (133 subjects), and the main fracture sites were distal forearm (6.0%), humerus (2.3%), femur (1.3%), and ribs (1.1%). Women had a higher prevalence (17.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.6-20.6) than men (6.9%; 95% CI: 4.4-9.3) (p < 0.001). After adjusting for significant variables, logistic regression revealed that female gender (odds ratio [OR] = 2.7; 95% CI; 1.6-4.5; p < 0.001), current smoking (OR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.2-3.3; p = 0.013), and the femoral neck T-score (OR = 0.7; 95% CI: 0.5-0.9; p = 0.001) remain significant risk factors for osteoporotic fractures in the community-dwelling elderly. Our findings identified that female gender, current smoking, and low hip BMD are independent risk factors for osteoporotic fractures.