Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

The provision of quality in a bilateral search market

We accomplish two goals. First, we provide a non-cooperative foundation for the use of the Nash bargaining solution in search markets. This finding should help to close the rift between the search and the matching-and-bargaining literature. Second, we establish that the diversity of quality offered (at an increasing price-quality ratio) in a decentralized market is an equilibrium phenomenon - even in the limit as search frictions disappear.

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We study the relation between the number of firms and market power in experimental oligopolies. Price competition under decreasing returns involves a wide interval of pure strategy equilibrium prices. We present results of an experiment in which two, three and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. Less collusion with more firms leads to lower average prices. With more than two firms, the predominant market price is 24. A simple imitation model captures this phenomenon. For the long run, the model predicts that prices converge to the Walrasian outcome, but for the intermediate term the modal price is 24

On the relation between tax rates and evasion in a multi-period economy

We extend the basic tax evasion model to a multi-period economy exhibiting sustained growth. When individuals conceal part of their true income from the tax authority, they face the risk of being audited and hence of paying the corresponding fine. Both taxes and fines determine individual saving and the rate of capital accumulation. In this context we show that the sign of the relation between the level of the tax rate and the amount of evaded income is the same as that obtained in static setups. Moreover, high tax rates on income are typically associated with low growth rates as occurs in standard growth models that disregard the tax evasion phenomenon.

Redistribution and subsidies for higher education

The financing of higher education through public spending imposes a transfer of resources from taxpayers to university students and their parents. We provide an explanation for this phenomenon. Those who attend higher education will earn more income in the future and will pay more taxes. People whose children do not attend higher education, however should agree to help pay the cost of such education, providing that the taxes are sufficiently high to ensure that there will be an adequate redistribution in favor of their own children at some time in the future.

Mitsuda's reactions: induced by BCG in the normal Rhesus ("Macacca mulatta")

The reversals of Mitsuda's reactions induced by BCG have been objected to based on the possiblem interference of other determination causes of the phenomenon: tuberculous primo-infections, communicants of unsuspected leprosy, revearsals due to other causes, such as anti-diphteric and anti-tetanic vaccination, etc. In order to study the problem, we have used Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta), which were reared in isolation, in an attempt to avoid the referred to interferences. Prior to the experiments, all animals were tested and found negative to radiograph, tuberculin and lepromin tests and were then submitted to the application of BCG vaccine (from 1 to 3 days old), in different doses and by different via. At different times, after the application of BCG, they were again submitted to the radiographic, tuberculin and lepromin tests. In the tables I to IV the experiences were summarised. From the experiments, the following conclusions were reached: 1 - From 12 Rhesus that received BCG 11 showed reversals of the Mitsuda reaction (91.7%). 2 - These reverseals took place both in tests effected shortly after BCG (from 6 days to 2 months), and tests effected much later (from 7 to 12 months after BCG). 3 - Some differences were found in the results, according to the dosis and the application via of the BCG. a) - The testicular and peritonela via (0,02g) were the only that determined strong positive Mitsuda's reactions (+++). b) - By oral via, animals that received high dosis (0.6g and 1.2 g), there resulted uniform and regular reversals, even though of low intensity (+); but from those who got small doses (0.2 g.) one showed no reversals in all tests, and the other presented reversals in the 2nd and 3rd tests only, also with low positivity (+). 4) In the 2nd and 3rd Mitsuda's reactions in the same animals, positivity was always precocious (generally within 48 hours), one getting the impression that there occurs a sensibilization of the animal body by the antigen with the repetition of the tests, even though the intensity of the reaction always remains the same. This precocious reaction (Fernandez type) occurs both shortly and long time after the application of the BCG. Its precocity depends not of the antigen only because the first Mitsuda's reaction after the BCG application occurs after some time and seems not influenced by the control lepromin test effected on the Rhesus before the BCG. 5) On the control group, the animals which received a.a.f. bacilli suspensions (Mycobacterium sp.; M. avium, and M. smegmatis), did not show reverseals of the Mitsuda's reaction. Two Rhesus, however, which received dead BCG (120ºC autoclave 1 hour), one intradermically (0.006 g) and the other orally (1.2 g), did both present reversals of the Mitsuda's reaction, with weak positivity (+). In all animals of the control-group, the allergic reactions were found negative. 6) Strong local inflammatory reactions were observed in the Rhesus that had received living BCG by intradermal via, and in the one submitted to multipunctures, there occurred the formation of a large caseous abcess. 7) The allergic tuberculinic and infratuberculinic reactions appeared dissociated from the Mitsuda's reactions: sometimes they are more precocious, occurring before of the lepromin test; on other occasions they disappear, when the Mitsuda's reactions still persist; and finally, they may be absent, when the latter occur, especially after the oral application of the BCG. 8) In Rhesus which received BCG by testicular and peritonela via, in the infratuberculinic test (0.1 ml of total BCG extract), besides the classic answer, which occurs between 48 and 96 hours, one could observe a delayed answer (15 to 20 days), represented by a non-erythematous nodule, which persists for 11-14 days.

Long-run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy

This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call "frictional growth", i.e. the interaction between money growth and nominal frictions. After presenting theoretical models of this phenomenon, we construct an empirical model of the Spanish economy and, in this context, we evaluate the long-run inflation-unemployment trade for Spain and examine how recent policy changes have afected it.

The Determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers. Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to purs

Material Flow Accounting in Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru (1980-2000)

In this paper we compare the resource flows of Chile, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru between 1980 and 2000. In this time span, the domestic extraction of materials increased in the four countries, mainly due to the mining sector in Chile and Peru, biomass and oil in Ecuador and construction minerals in Mexico. Imports and exports increased too, due to the increasing integration in the international markets, prompted by the liberalization policies undertaken by the four countries between the late 1970s and the late 1990s. The four countries had a negative physical trade balance for most of the period analyzed, meaning that their exports exceeded their imports in terms of weight. However, the increase of imports reduced the physical deficit in Chile, Mexico and Peru. Ecuador’s physical deficit was the highest and did not decrease in the period analyzed. Also, a diversification of exports away from bulk commodities could be observed in Chile and Mexico, and to a lesser extent in Peru, whereas in Ecuador the export sector remained mainly based on oil and biomass. More research is needed to explore the environmental effects of this phenomenon. Also, the indirect flows associated to the direct physical flows deserve to be subject to further analysis.

The Experience of European Integration and the Potential for Integration in South America

The experience of the European Union is the most significant and far-reaching among all attempts at regional integration. It is, therefore, the most likely to provide some lessons for those world regions that are just beginning this complex process. In turn, the Common Market of the South (MERCOSUR) and the Andean Community (CAN) are among the regional integration projects that have reached the greatest level of formal accomplishment after the EU. MERCOSUR is a customs union that aspires to become a common market, while avowing the commitment to advance towards political integration. For its part, CAN is a customs union that has already developed supranational institutions such as a Commission, a Parliament and a Court of Justice. In both cases, however, words have progressively tended to wander far from deeds. One reason underlying this phenomenon may be a misunderstanding of the European experience with integration. In this article, we discuss the theories that have been developed to account for integration in Europe and may prove useful to understand integration elsewhere and put forward a set of lessons that could be drawn from the European experience. Subsequently, we introduce a description of the experience of integration in South America and reflect (critically) on how the theories and lessons drawn from the EU could be applied to this region –and beyond.

Non-hyperbolic boundary equilibrium bifurcations in planar Filippov systems: a case study approach

Boundary equilibrium bifurcations in piecewise smooth discontinuous systems are characterized by the collision of an equilibrium point with the discontinuity surface. Generically, these bifurcations are of codimension one, but there are scenarios where the phenomenon can be of higher codimension. Here, the possible collision of a non-hyperbolic equilibrium with the boundary in a two-parameter framework and the nonlinear phenomena associated with such collision are considered. By dealing with planar discontinuous (Filippov) systems, some of such phenomena are pointed out through specific representative cases. A methodology for obtaining the corresponding bi-parametric bifurcation sets is developed.

Los efectos sociales del deporte: ocio, integración, socialización, violencia y educación

Documento de trabajo que muestra una aproximación multidisciplinaria de las ciencias sociales al fenómeno del deporte. Es una reflexión sobre la dimensión social del deporte, desde los efectos que este produce en las formas de vida humana: integración, socialización o violencia. Se analiza también el papel del deporte como instrumento de educación.

Desensitization of thermal hyperemia in the skin is reproducible.

OBJECTIVE: Local heating increases skin blood flow SkBF (thermal hyperemia). In a previous study, we reported that a first local thermal stimulus could attenuate the hyperemic response to a second one applied later on the same skin spot, a phenomenon that we termed desensitization. However, other studies found no evidence for desensitization in similar conditions. The aim of the present work was to test whether it was related to differences in instrumentation. METHODS: Twenty-eight healthy young males were studied. Two pairs of heating chambers, one custom-made (our study) and one commercial (other groups), were affixed to forearm skin. SkBF was measured with single-point laser-Doppler flowmetry (LDF) (780nm) in one pair, and laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) (633nm) in the other. A temperature step from 34 to 41°C, was applied for 30minutes and repeated after two hours. RESULTS: During the second thermal challenge, the plateau SkBF was lower than during the first thermal and was observed with each of the four combinations of SkBF measurement techniques and heating equipment (p<0.05 for all conditions, range -9% to -16% of the initial value). CONCLUSION: Desensitization of thermal hyperemia is not specific to peculiar operating conditions.

Método de musicalización de ECG

La música no només pot emprar-se per a l'evocació de sentiments, sinó també per a la transmissió d'informació. En aquest treball es proposa un mètode, en aquest sentit, basat en una forma general de musicalització que vincula algorítmicament la composició musical i el fenomen que es monitoritza. El procediment que resulta ha estat dissenyat específicament per als electrocardiogrames (ECG). Les composicions musicals generades, ofereixen melodies agradables, en el cas de subjectes sans, que s'alteren notablement i es tornen dissonants si els pacients manifesten determinades enfermetats o disfuncions.

Insertion dans les soins après une première hospitalisation dans un secteur pour psychose [Linkage to care after first hospitalisation for psychosis]

BACKGROUND: First hospitalisation for a psychotic episode causes intense distress to patients and families, but offers an opportunity to make a diagnosis and start treatment. However, linkage to outpatient psychiatric care remains a notoriously difficult step for young psychotic patients, who frequently interrupt treatment after hospitalisation. Persistence of symptoms, and untreated psychosis may therefore remain a problem despite hospitalisation and proper diagnosis. With persisting psychotic symptoms, numerous complications may arise: breakdown in relationships, loss of family and social support, loss of employment or study interruption, denial of disease, depression, suicide, substance abuse and violence. Understanding mechanisms that might promote linkage to outpatient psychiatric care is therefore a critical issue, especially in early intervention in psychotic disorders. OBJECTIVE: To study which factors hinder or promote linkage of young psychotic patients to outpatient psychiatric care after a first hospitalisation, in the absence of a vertically integrated program for early psychosis. Method. File audit study of all patients aged 18 to 30 who were admitted for the first time to the psychiatric University Hospital of Lausanne in the year 2000. For statistical analysis, chi2 tests were used for categorical variables and t-test for dimensional variables; p<0.05 was considered as statistically significant. RESULTS: 230 patients aged 18 to 30 were admitted to the Lausanne University psychiatric hospital for the first time during the year 2000, 52 of them with a diagnosis of psychosis (23%). Patients with psychosis were mostly male (83%) when compared with non-psychosis patients (49%). Furthermore, they had (1) 10 days longer mean duration of stay (24 vs 14 days), (2) a higher rate of compulsory admissions (53% vs 22%) and (3) were more often hospitalised by a psychiatrist rather than by a general practitioner (83% vs 53%). Other socio-demographic and clinical features at admission were similar in the two groups. Among the 52 psychotic patients, 10 did not stay in the catchment area for subsequent treatment. Among the 42 psychotic patients who remained in the catchment area after discharge, 20 (48%) did not attend the scheduled or rescheduled outpatient appointment. None of the socio demographic characteristics were associated with attendance to outpatient appointments. On the other hand, voluntary admission and suicidal ideation before admission were significantly related to attending the initial appointment. Moreover, some elements of treatment seemed to be associated with higher likelihood to attend outpatient treatment: (1) provision of information to the patient regarding diagnosis, (2) discussion about the treatment plan between in- and outpatient staff, (3) involvement of outpatient team during hospitalisation, and (4) elaboration of concrete strategies to face basic needs, organise daily activities or education and reach for help in case of need. CONCLUSION: As in other studies, half of the patients admitted for a first psychotic episode failed to link to outpatient psychiatric care. Our study suggests that treatment rather than patient's characteristics play a critical role in this phenomenon. Development of a partnership and involvement of patients in the decision process, provision of good information regarding the illness, clear definition of the treatment plan, development of concrete strategies to cope with the illness and its potential complications, and involvement of the outpatient treating team already during hospitalisation, all came out as critical strategies to facilitate adherence to outpatient care. While the current rate of disengagement after admission is highly concerning, our finding are encouraging since they constitute strategies that can easily be implemented. An open approach to psychosis, the development of partnership with patients and a better coordination between inpatient and outpatient teams should therefore be among the targets of early intervention programs. These observations might help setting up priorities when conceptualising new programs and facilitate the implementation of services that facilitate engagement of patients in treatment during the critical initial phase of psychotic disorders.