Daily birth numbers in Passo Fundo, South Brazil, 1997-1999: trends and periodicities

Between October 6, 1997 and April 30, 1999, 5011 births (mean: 8.76 per day) were registered in the city of Passo Fundo, South Brazil. The sequence of 572 daily birth numbers was not random (iteration test). Neyman distribution (m = ¥) showed the best fit. Clusters of days with higher birth numbers alternated with days with low numbers of births. Periodogram analysis revealed a significant periodicity of 6.98 days. The cosinor regression, testing 10 a priori supposed period lengths, found significant seasonality peaking in August-September and significantly highest birth numbers on Thursdays. Among the lunar and solar rotation cycles, the tropic lunar cycle and its 4th harmonic were most pronounced, in agreement with results concerning natality in Germany obtained by Svante Arrhenius in the 19th century. These findings confirm Derer-Halberg's concept of multiseptans. In addition to cycling, a significantly increasing linear trend with a daily increase of 0.0045 births was encountered. This documents a growth of the population in agreement with national statistical data.

Sanomalehtikeskustelua maaseudun naisten oikeuksista 1800-luvulla

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Postimerkit merisotataidon dokumentteina : Britannian ja Saksan laivastojen varustelu maailmansotien välisenä aikana

Merisodassa tapahtunut muutos – erityisesti konevoiman syrjäyttäessä purjeet ja raudan korvatessa puumateriaalin 1800-luvun loppupuolella – johti nykypäivänäkin merkittäviin merisodan teoreettisiin tarkasteluihin. Teorioihin pohjautuneet merisotataidon yleisperiaatteet saivat ensimmäisen maailmansodan aikana käytännön testauksensa. Voittajat ja häviäjät analysoivat taistelut sekä maailmalla vallinneen ripeän teknisen kehityksen, minkä seurauksena laivastojen varustelu kiihtyi uudestaan valtapolitiikan tueksi. Maailmansotien välisenä aikana pyrittiin kansainvälisin sopimuksin säätelemään suurten laivastojen, kuten Britannian, Ranskan, Italian, Japanin ja Yhdysvaltojen varustelukilpailua. Versaillesin rauhansopimus rajoitti samanaikaisesti Saksan merivoimien kokoa. Tässä työssä tutkitaan Britannian ja Saksan merivoimien varustelua ja merisotataidon kehittymistä maailmansotien välisenä aikana. Merisotataidon kehittymisen tarkastelu tapahtuu postimerkkien avulla. Postimerkki syntyi Englannissa vuonna 1840 ja sen käyttö yleistyi ympäri maailman lähes samanaikaisesti konevoimaa käyttäneiden laivojen kanssa. Postimerkkien kuva-aiheet olivat aluksi valtioiden päämiehiä, heraldiikkaa, maisemia tai abstrakteja aiheita. Vasta 1900-luvun alkupuolella kuva-aiheina saattoi olla lähes mitä vain, myös sotalaivojen kuvia. Postimerkkikokoelmastani erottuu tutkimusaiheeseen 335 merkkiä. Britannian ja Saksan kansallisarkistojen alkuperäislähteiden ja tutkimuskirjallisuuden dokumenttianalyysiin perustuvaa merisotataidon moninaista kehitystä verrataan tutkimuksessani postimerkkien kuva-aiheisiin ja niiden yksityiskohtiin 3 300 kertaa. Tällä menettelyllä pyrin selvittämään voiko postimerkkejä käyttää ja pitää merisotaidon kehityksen kattavina dokumentteina. Postimerkeissä satunnaisiksi jääneet virheet tai propaganda eivät vähennä merisotataidon kehityksen kuvaamisen dokumenttiarvoa. Postimerkkien sotalaivoihin liittyvät kuvat kattavat muutamaa laivaluokkaa lukuunottamatta molempien maiden kaikki taistelualuslajit- ja luokat. Postimerkeistä voidaan nähdä vanhat sotalaivat, niiden peruskorjaukset ja uudet luokat lentotukialuksista sukellusveneisiin. Alusten kuvat voidaan liittää Britannian kansainyhteisön muuttuneisiin strategisiin ja taktisiin tavoitteisiin niin Atlantilla kuin Kaukoidässä. Saksan merivoimien nousu Versaillesin rauhanehtojen rajoituksista ja lopulta pyrkimys Britannian kauppamerenkulun tuhoajaksi välittyy myös postimerkeistä. Yleinen sotatekninen kehitys, lentoneiden tulo merisotanäyttämölle ja aikanaan kansainvälisten tonnistorajoitusten poistuminen näkyvät postimerkeissä. Kokopostimerkin historian aikana vuoteen 2012 mennessä purjeettomien, nykyaikaisten sotalaivojen kuvia on julkaistu noin 3 350 postimerkillä, jotka on koottu Maailman suurin laivasto-osasto -postimerkkikokoelmaani noin 35 vuoden aikana

"Rakkaat poikaiset!". Simon ja Wilhelmina Janssonin perhekirjeet egodokumentteina (1858-1887)

Kustavilainen talonpoikaislaivuri Simon Jansson ja hänen vaimonsa Wilhelmina o.s. Widbom kävivät kolmenkymmenen vuoden ajan kirjeenvaihtoa kouluun ja yliopistoon lähetettyjen poikiensa Waldemar, Evald ja Emil Jahnssonin kanssa. Lähes 150 suomen- ja ruotsinkielistä kirjettä on säilynyt Suomalaisen Kirjallisuuden Seuran kirjallisuusarkistossa ja Turun maakunta-arkistossa. Lähiluvun kautta kirjeistä muodostuu yksityiskohtainen lähde saaristolaisperheen elämäntapaan, arkeen ja työhön sekä saaristoyhteisön sosiaalisen kanssakäymisen muotoihin. Ne kertovat myös ensimmäisen polven oppisivistyneistön synnystä ja niistä resursseista, joita hyödyntäen koulua käymättömät vanhemmat saattoivat kouluttaa lapsensa. Tutkimus liittyy suomalaisten 1800-luvun itseoppineiden kirjoittajien tekstien ja maaseudun kirjallistumisen tutkimukseen. Keskeinen käsite on egodokumentti, jolla tarkoitetaan kirjeitä ja muita tekstejä, joissa kirjoittaja kertoo itse omasta elämästään. Hollantilainen ja ranskalainen egodokumenttien tutkimus on pyrkinyt haastamaan uudenlaisten lähdeaineistojen kautta käsityksiä menneisyydestä sekä nostamaan esiin muun muassa yksilöllisen kokemuksen, kirjoittamisen kulttuurin ja dokumenttien materiaalisuuden. Janssonin perheen kirjeet poikkeavat monin tavoin 1800-luvun säätyläisten kirjeistä. Niiden funktio oli hyvin käytännöllinen ja arkinen, mutta ne olivat myös vanhempien keino tukea perheen yhteistä sosiaalisen nousun projektia. Kustavia koskevan tiheän uutisoinnin kautta ne pyrkivät pitämään kaupunkilaistuvat pojat osana vanhaa yhteisöään. Perheen isä vastasi suurelta osin kirjeenvaihdosta ja siihen liittyvästä huolenpidosta, mikä kertoo sukupuolittuneen työnjaon joustavuudesta saaristossa. Tutkimus osoittaa, ettei isän ammattiin perustuva yliopisto-opiskelijoiden tutkimus ole tavoittanut sitä naisten kautta välittyvää sosiaalista ja kulttuurista pääomaa, joka saattoi olla ratkaiseva perheiden kouluttaessa lapsiaan. Kirjeiden analyysi tarkentaa kuvaa perinteisen talonpoikaispurjehduksen sopeutumisesta vuosisadan loppupuolen uudistuksiin.

“Who is steering the ship and which constellation guides the way? Exploring transparency in the European Central Bank during the time of crisis”

This paper explores transparency in the decision-making of the European Central Bank (ECB). According to ECB´s definition, transparency means that the central bank provides the general public with all relevant information on its strategy, assessments and policy decisions as well as its procedures in an open, clear and timely manner. In this paper, however, the interpretation of transparency is somewhat broader: Information is freely available and directly accessible to those who will be affected by the decisions. Moreover, the individuals shall be able to master this material. ECB´s negative attitude towards publication of documents has demonstrated central bank´s reluctance to strive towards more extensive transparency. By virtue of the definition adopted by the ECB the bank itself is responsible for determining what is considered as relevant information. On the grounds of EU treaties, this paper assesses ECB`s accountability concentrating especially on transparency by employing principal-agent theory and constitutional approach. Traditionally, the definite mandate and the tenet of central bank independence have been used to justify the limited accountability. The de facto competence of the ECB has, however, considerably expanded as the central bank has decisively resorted to non-standard measures in order to combat the economic turbulences facing Europe. It is alleged that non-standard monetary policy constitutes a grey zone occasionally resembling economic policy or fiscal policy. Notwithstanding, the European Court of Justice has repeatedly approved these measures. This dynamic interpretation of the treaties seems to allow temporarily exceptions from the central bank´s primary objective during extraordinary times. Regardless, the paper suggests that the accountability nexus defined in the treaties is not sufficient in order to guarantee the accountability of the ECB after the adoption of the new, more active role. Enhanced transparency would help the ECB to maintain its credibility. Investing in the quality of monetary dialogue between the Parliament and the ECB appears to constitute the most adequate and practicable method to accomplish this intention. As a result of upgraded transparency the legitimacy of the central bank would not solely rest on its policy outputs.

Mudança em tempos de globalização: o capitalismo não é mais progressista?

Technical progress and economic development are promotions of capitalism, says a well known idea hereby contradicted. Recent changes under neoliberalism show that the more freedom of move to capital the less development of productive forces. There was no synchronicity and coherence fostering economic growth between changes at the micro level of techno-productive and managerial innovations and the ones at the macro level of institutional structures and economic policy. Empowerment of finance capital and monopolies got them opportunity to control the state and set its economic policy to support fictitious capital accumulation and to rule restructuring of corporate management. Surplus redistribution favoring finance capital is a burden to be carried on the back of society's productive structures, lowering investment, employment and growth. Focusing Latin America and Brazil, the same picture is seen, worsened by external fragility that deepens historical dependency.

Credibility, rules and power in the European Union institutions: a transactional analysis of the "Stability and Growth pact"

The credibility of the rules and the elements of power constitute fundamental keys in the analysis of the political institutions. This paper opens the "black box" of the European Union institutions and analyses the problem of credibility in the commitment of the Stability and Growth pact (SGP). This Pact (SGP) constituted a formal rule that tried to enforce budgetary discipline on the European States. Compliance with this contract could be ensured by the existence of "third party enforcement" or by the coincidence of the ex-ante and ex-post interests of the States (reputational capital). The fact is that states such as France or Germany failed to comply with the ruling and managed to avoid the application of sanctions. This article studies the transactions and the hierarchy of power that exists in the European institutions, and analyses the institutional framework included in the new European Constitution.

Para superar el estancamiento económico en México: "nudos críticos" de un proyecto nacional de desarrollo

This article is devoted to analyze changes in economic policy to be adopted by Mexico if a national development project were implemented. Starting from an evaluation of the main economic and political outcomes of Vicente’s Fox administration, the author proposes an alternative development strategy which permits Mexico to overcome economic stagnation. That strategy would be based in recovering the internal market as the dynamical focus of the economy with the purpose of satisfying basic needs of people. To be successful this strategy should to confront the "critical knots" of the Neo-liberal model: to reverse the uneven distribution of income; abandoning the fixing of restrictive monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies; and mobilizing economic surplus by means of a profound revision of debt service schemes. It concludes that to implement a national development project it is required a political and economic strategy to dismantle neoliberalism, which is an antinational structure of power.

Respostas a uma crítica marxista às perspectivas retórica e pragmática em economia

Answers to a marxist critic of the rhetorical and pragmatic perspectives in economics. Based on recent discussions regarding the rhetorical perspective in economics, this paper presents an interpretation of the philosophical approach of Habermas which attempts to rescue the so called 'modern spirit', forgotten in the annals of the 19th century, similar to that presented by Marshall Berman in 1982. Following the reconstructive approach of Habermas's project of modernity, we attempt to show how a 'rhetorical approach' could be applied in the field of economics, and yet still be clearly modern by taking into account intersubjectivities, given the expanded sphere of human communication (as defended in the theory of communicative action of Habermas). In this sense, we will seek to demonstrate the philosophical limits of the anti-rhetorical critiques of, for example, Paulani (1996, 2003, 2005, 2006), which seem to underestimate the linguistic and intersubjective aspect of Habermas's philosophical project that can also be found in McCloskey’s methodological approach.

Michal Kalecki, um pioneiro da teoria econômica do desenvolvimento

Kalecki made important contributions to development economics, which rank him among the founding fathers of this area of our discipline. The objective of this paper is to give an account of his contributions, and in particular of his conception of the peculiarities and the way of functioning of the underdeveloped economies, and of the barriers that limits their capacity for high and sustained long run growth. As most socialist economists of his time, he was skeptic about the possibilities of overcoming underdevelopment under capitalism. However, in contradistinction to other pioneers of development economics, Kalecki did not stress the international forces that hamper development, but put the accent rather in the internal institutions and social and political determinants. In particular, the feudal and semi-feudal conditions in agriculture, the reduced market ensuing from income concentration and widespread monopolization of the economy, and the lack of willingness of entrepreneurs to carry out the necessary investments. Accordingly, his economic policy recommendations emphasized also the domestic aspects involved.

O mito do populismo econômico de Vargas

The myth of Vargas' economic populism. The Second Vargas Administration in Brazil (1951-1954) is commonly associated with the phenomenon of populism. However, based on the models of economic populism, it is clear that the economic policy of the period is not the one shown by those models. Besides, based on this historic experience, it is advocated that there is no incompatibility between developmentalism and the adoption of macroeconomic stability-oriented measures.

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector.

Da economia política à política econômica: o novo-desenvolvimentismo e o governo Lula

From political economy to economic policy: The neo-developmentalism and the Lula administration. This article critically reviews the design of neo-developmentalist economic policies in Brazil, in the first half of the last decade, and their relationship with the economic policies of the Lula administration after 2006. Paradoxically, the neo-developmentalist policies were implemented jointly with the main (neoliberal) macroeconomic policies which had been introduced earlier. The article reviews the relevant literature, and examines the contradictory nature of this 'inflection' of economic policy. So far, this combination of policies has achieved an unquestionable - though provisional - success, despite the persistence of the structural macroeconomic problems due to the continuity of the neoliberal policies.

Taxa de câmbio real e crescimento econômico: uma comparação entre economias emergentes e desenvolvidas

Real exchange rate and economic growth: a comparison between emerging and developed economies. This paper presents a discussion on the relationship between economic growth and real exchange rate. The article presents the results generated by a dynamic panel that tested the relationship of economic growth with the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and the choice of exchange rate regime from 26 countries, 13 emerging and 13 developed. The results suggest that the level of the exchange rate and volatility are relevant for growth. Finally, the paper stresses that there are important differences when comparing developed and emerging economies.

Desenvolvimentismo e novo-desenvolvimentismo: raízes teóricas e precisões conceituais

This paper starts from the conceptualism of New Developmentalism which was proposed by its formulators and their criticism of the "old" developmentalism in order to compare both. It is elaborate in both theoretical and historical levels. In the former, it explores the theoretical streams that contributed to the formulation of economic policies that designated the Latin American developmentalism. In the latter, it focuses on the economic policy of the Brazilian import-substitution industrialization and advocates the impropriety of associating it to the irresponsibility in the management of the foreign exchange, fiscal and monetary policies, as the proposers of New Developmentalism assert. Finally, in a third stage, it resumes the propositions of the New Developmentalism and debates the pertinence of some of its policy propositions based upon theoretical considerations and the Brazilian experience which were mentioned in the previous stages.